June 1: The "Official" Start of the 2009 Hurricane Season

Hello my friends,

Welcome to the Official Start of the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season...
and to paraphrase a friend of mine (JB): "Hurricane Season AGAIN??!?
Didn't we *just* have one last year?" Sigh. Yes. :)

The first three storm names will be Ana, Bill, and Claudette. That's all
we'll need this year, right? ;) Water temperatures out there are cool -
the coolest since 2003 at least. It should be a quiet season (at least
to begin with). But as you know, tropical storms depend on the ocean and
atmosphere so let's hope the atmosphere cooperates as well. Also
remember, a 'quiet' season does not necessarily mean a 'nice' season...
in 1992 Hurricane Andrew was a late August storm.

One change the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has made for 2009 alerts
- the Saffir-Simpson Scale (Category of Storm) will no longer include
estimates on storm surge (hurray hurray... finally!!). It will refer
purely to wind speed, which is how it was created in the first place.
Storm surge depends on more than just wind speed - it depends on angle
of approach, the coastal topography, the speed of the storm etc. But
more on that later in the year.

Finally for today... some background on my updates:

1. These updates are about fun, forecasting, and education... and
tropical storms (and whatever else pops into my head that more-or-less
fits those three words). It is just what I think.

2. I have a British sense of humoUr... you have been warned.

3. This is my hobby - sometimes you'll get one update a day, sometime
four. If you are really lucky, you won't get any. If you wish to pay me
to write, let me know and I'll send out updates as frequently as you like.

4. I have a British sense of humoUr... I hope you like Monty Python,
Eddie Izzard, Douglas Adams etc

5. If you have any questions (preferably about tropical storms), please
do not hesitate to ask. I will be happy to make up the answers for you.
;) I can cut and paste from previous entries as well as the next person
so if I say something or use some "scientific jargon" (ooh ahh), please
please ask me about it.

6. I have a British sense of humoUr... I often write tongue-in-cheek,
which sometimes hurts my cheek but what can you do? Gentle sarcasm,
irony, and puns are all acceptable forms of communication. Unfortunately
they don't always translate in writing so please don't be offended -
like Planet Earth, I'm "Mostly Harmless" (Douglas Adams). Have a piece
of chocolate or a drink instead.

7. I'm sure every cloud in the Atlantic is exciting to some, but I'll
just be writing about those that I think have a chance of developing.

8. If you are reading this on the web blog and would like to sign up to
get email updates instead go here...
http://seas.marine.usf.edu/mailman/listinfo/jyo_hurricane (my mail
server and blog site are not compatible or something, so the blog
doesn't look as pretty as other blogs might do - sorry about that! the
words are all there though. I'll try and sort that out this year.)

9. If you are reading this via email, are sick of me cluttering up your
in-boxes, and would prefer to get it via the web go here...
http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com (and send me an email telling me to
remove you).

10. I am not always right. But then neither is anyone else. Forecasting
is complicated. Sometimes the crystal ball gets smudges and you are all
out of Windex to clean it and the store is closed. So PLEASE pay
attention to the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service and
your Emergency Managers - especially when a storm is looming because
they have the most up-to-date information!!

11. I have a British sense of humoUr... er... did I mention that one
already?

That's it for now folks. :)
J.
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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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