[Jyo_hurricane] TS Chantal: July 31

Well that was a nice few weeks off, wasn't it? And now there's a little
blip on the horizon. A very little blip.

There's really not much to say about this Tropical Storm. This system
has been brewing for a few days, and finally reached Tropical Storm
winds (defined as winds between 34-63 knots, 39-73 mph) this morning.
The maximum wind speed at the moment is 43 kt (50 mph) so she's not a
very strong storm. She is out in the Atlantic (~40 N, 63W), and moving
in a north-eastward direction away from the US. She is still over waters
with temperatures warm enough to sustain as storm (over 26 degs C), but
will soon be moving over cooler waters. I agree with the official
forecast that she will merge with a low front and just keep heading
towards northern Europe as a large low pressure system.

I'm not going to post anything else on this storm unless anything changes.

J.
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast.
-------------------------------------------

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TS Barry: June 2

Well he's here... the heaviest(and final) rain 'bands' are over and
approaching Pinellas County (where I live). TS Barry will have made
landfall within the next 3-5 hours, in the vicinity of Tampa Bay. It's
raining pretty heavily here right now (I'm quite enjoying it :) ) and the
rain is all ahead of the center of circulation.

This is what I'd call a good storm for Florida - just mostly rain. The
only thing to watch out for is local flooding (Shore Acres area for
example), and maybe some tornadoes. The official forecast is calling for
3-5 feet above. At the moment St. Pete is between 1-2 ft above, and I
think Clearwater is closer to 2ft.

If you don't already know about this, you can look at the water levels at
tidesonline.nos.noaa.gov. On the left, click on 'state maps', then on
whatever state you are in, and then the locations shown. The blue is the
predicted - including the normal high/low tides. The red are the
observations, and the green is how high the water is above the predicted
value.

Have a lovely day everyone. I'll probably not send out another email until
the next storm.

Be careful. Watch your local reports (news/weather) for more information.

J.
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast.
-------------------------------------------

Tropical Storm Barry: June 1

Well this is a fine start to this season! That pesky low pressure system
has mutated during the day and has just been declared a Tropical Storm.
The NHC sent in a plane this afternoon and they came back with a central
pressure of 1000mb.

There's a Tropical Storm warning for the west coast of Florida from
Bonita Beach to Keaton Beach (including Tampa Bay), and a TS watch from
Keaton Beach to St. Marks to the north.

TS Barry is a weak system, with max. winds of 45 mph. He's moving north
and is currently over water of over 26 degs C and will remain over those
until tomorrow, before heading into slightly cooler waters. He is also
in a region of high wind shear. I still don't see any circulation higher
up in the atmosphere (not even at mid-levels of 5km) - another indicator
that it should remain a weak system.

It looks like this afternoon the thunderstorm activity flared up closer
to the center, along with stronger winds. So they have changed the
classification from subtropical to tropical - and you all know about
that now.

All the rainfall is ahead of the system. At the moment it looks like a
lovely day in England to me :)

I'll send out another update tomorrow or later today if it looks like
it's developing further.

J.
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast.
-------------------------------------------

The 'Official' Start of the Hurricane Season: June 1

Hey!... why didn't anyone tell me that today was the first official day of the Hurricane Season? ;) Really, unless you've been living in a tree or under a rock, there's very little chance that you wouldn't know this by now.

What's out there:
There is low pressure system which has associated with it a mass of water vapor, clouds, thunderstorms etc covering the western Caribbean-eastern Gulf of Mexico region right now. I agree with all the official forecasts, it's unlikely to develop into anything much. Cuba is getting a lot of rain at the moment, and Florida is overcast and will be getting rain today and tomorrow, and possibly even some on Sunday. Good thing too... it might put out some of the fires we have going on in this state.

A quick overview of storm systems:
So, as nothing much is going on out there, I'm going to take this opportunity to answer a question (as best I can) that quite a few of you asked me when Subtropical Storm Andrea was out there in May - What is the difference between an extratropical storm, a tropical storm, and a subtropical storm?

An Extratropical Storm: These usually form in the extratropics (quelle suprise!)  and have cold air at their core. A cold air mass meets a warm air mass, and as the warm air rises (because it is lighter than the cold air), it releases potential energy that results in these systems. Because warm air rises, a low pressure is formed which is why these are also called low pressure systems.They are usually associated with fronts which are depicted on weather maps as lines of blue triangles (for a cold front) or red semi-circles (for a warm front). Because it's the collision of air masses, these systems can occur over land or water, and occur frequently in the winter in the US as snowstorms/blizzards or Nor'easters.

A Tropical Storm: These usually form in the tropics (aren't we good at naming things?) and have warm air at their core. The energy source for these differ from extratropical storms. These storms form over water only and the energy source is latent heat. Warm water evaporates into the air. As the rising warm moisture-laden air in the center reaches colder altitudes in the atmosphere, the water vapor condenses to form clouds and latent heat is released. The heaviest rains and winds are in a band close to the center. No fronts are associated with these storms (although 'waves' in the atmosphere are) - which makes it difficult to determine too far ahead of time when a storm will develop. A tropical storm is when the winds are greater than 34 knots (39 miles per hour). If the winds are less than that, it is a tropical depression.

A Subtropical Storm: These usually contain some characteristics of both extratropical and tropical systems.  For example, imagine an extratropical storm moving over warmer water.  Now the storm begins to get some energy from latent heat as well, and the cold air in the center (near the surface) is replaced by warm air, so the storm core can change from cold to warm. The heaviest rains and winds are not near the center. Like a tropical system, a subtropical storm is when the winds are greater than 34 knots (39 miles per hour). If the winds are less than that, it is a subtropical depression. Subtropical Storm Andrea was formed from an extratropical low pressure system/front that moved eastward off the coast of the US over warmer waters.

It's only since 2002 that subtropical storms were given names from the hurricane name list - which would partly account for why we have had more named storms in the past few years.

That's all for now. Enjoy the rain if you live in Florida. Enjoy whatever weather you have if you live in a different state :)
J.
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast.
-------------------------------------------

Subtropical depression Andrea: May 10

Subtropical depression Andrea is not doing so well, and I'd agree with
all the official advisories.

She is embedded in an area of high pressure, which always makes the
forecasting a bit more difficult, and explains why she is just drifting
along. When a low pressure system encounters high pressure, it's like a
ball trying to roll up-hill - not easy to do. She is still surrounded
by dry air on almost all sides, she is now in a region of higher wind
shear from the west-northwest, the water temperatures are still too
cool, and she is interacting with land on the western side. So not much
to keep her growing.

Although she is a weak storm the forecast for the next few days is
complicated. Unless she dissipates, which is very possible given the bad
atmospheric environment and the proximity to land, her southward drift
takes her over warmer waters. To complicate this some more, there is a
low front that was over Nevada/Colorado yesterday, and has reached Texas
today and is moving in this direction. So, if Andrea stays intact the
models are predicting that this front would move the storm eastward in a
few days, and I can see that as a possibility as well. It all depends on
how well she hangs together in the next couple of days.

That's all for now on this storm unless something 'interesting' happens.
Hopefully you won't hear from me again for a couple of months - wouldn't
that be nice? :)
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms (my
storm blog). If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your
local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official
forecast. This is not an official forecast.
-------------------------------------------

J.

Subtropical Storm Andrea: May 9, Update B

It's officially the first named storm of the year.

Andrea is still moving slowly westward, but a high pressure to the west
suggests that she will make landfall probably somewhere along northeast
Florida. She is not a big storm with winds around 45 mph (TS winds:
39-73 mph). The system is moving very slowly (3mph) so there is time
for a bit of intensification as it continues to interact with the Gulf
Stream, but not enough to make a hurricane because it is already
interacting with land.
J.
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms (my
storm blog). If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your
local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official
forecast. This is not an official forecast.
-------------------------------------------

Subtropical storm: May 9, Update A

Good morning,

Our potential first named storm of the season is still loitering
mischievously off the S. Carolina/Georgia/Florida coast. All you
surfers... time to pop over to the east coast of Florida.

The NHC sent a reconnaissance plane in to investigate this morning. I
suspect they will give this one a name later today. It has wind speeds
in the lower end of the Tropical Storm range (34-63kt, 39-73mph), it has
a broad, not well-formed eye, and a pretty good circulation. In the
atmosphere, the wind shear is low, which is favorable for the storm.
However, it is almost completely surrounded by dry air, which is not so
favorable. In the ocean, it is hanging out over water temperatures of
about 24-25 degs C, which is lower than those needed for storm formation
(generally 26.5 deg C and above are the temperatures to keep an eye out
for - all puns always intended :) ). It has begun to interact with land,
which will also keep it from developing.

So... the question is that given all the conditions that would prevent a
storm from developing, why has this persisted? One reason is that it is
very slow moving and has basically remained over the Gulf Stream for
most of it's life. Although the surface waters of the Gulf Stream are
warmer than surrounding waters, the important factor is that the water
is warm here with depth as well, so the water that is being churned up
from beneath the surface of the ocean is as warm as the surface, not
colder as you might expect. The persistence (and weak strength) of this
storm has very little to do with actual surface temperatures and global
warming, and in that respect it is like many storms we have seen over
the past few years, and will probably see again this year. Another
reason is that it was formed as part of a frontal system in the
atmosphere, so it had a lot of energy (and water vapor) associated with
it to begin with as it developed into a non-tropical low pressure system.

I'll send out another note once I hear they have named it (or not).
Toodles,
J.

Subtropical Storm

Hello everyone... I'm back from hibernation. I know I know, 'Hurricane
Season' doesn't officially start for another few weeks, but mother
nature never listens to us. There is a reason for this email - see
below. For those of you who have joined this list over the past few
months, welcome. If at any point you want to be removed, just send me an
email. For those who have been with me for the last 3 years, welcome
back :) As usual, if you have any questions, please drop me a line.

-------------------------------
As the first email of the upcoming 'exciting'?!? hurricane season 2007,
I'm going to put my disclaimer up front:

DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms (my
storm blog). If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your
local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official
forecast. This is not an official forecast.
-------------------------------------------
And we're off:

Some of you have seen what appears to be a tropical storm off the
Florida/Georgia/Carolina coast (thanks to those who sent me an email
asking about it). There is, indeed, a low pressure system that has the
characteristics of a subtropical storm off the Carolina coast. The low
pressure is associated with a dying cold front (also connected to the
tornadoes in Kansas late last week). It is not unheard of that a
subtropical storm can develop into a tropical storm (TS), for example,
TS Ana in April 2003. Also, since 2002, subtropical storms have been
given names from the hurricane name list.

The atmospheric conditions look good for storm development - good
circulation and low wind shear at the moment. Winds in the storm are
Gale Force, which is 34-40 knots, or 39-46 miles per hour (mph).
Tropical Storm winds are 34-63 knots, so it's on the lower end of the
scale. It is pulling in dry air from the west and south, and the ocean
conditions are not too favorable at the moment. As your local weather
stations are probably reporting, it does mean some bad weather for the
Carolina's, Georgia and possibly Florida in a day or so. The movement of
the system is to the west. At the moment, this hasn't been officially
classified as the first Tropical Storm of the season, but I will send
out an email if the National Hurricane Center (NHC) decide to change
that status. As I was writing this, the NHC has issued a special
tropical disturbance statement, so everyone is watching this system. I'm
sure we will all hear a lot more about this in the news.

More later,
J.

testing for 2007

Ramping up for a new season - here's a test post.

Last Day of the 2006 Hurricane Season

My final forecast... there will be no tropical storms for the rest of
the 2006 hurricane season. Today is officially the last day of a
wonderfully quiet hurricane season. So, have a good and safe holiday/New
Year/early spring ... and I'll be back sometime next year with more
riveting (!) and fun (!!) hurricane discussions.
Ciao,
Jyotika
P.S. As we are in El Nino conditions, generally Florida can expect a
rainy winter, the western US is already experiencing above average
rainfall (and will continue to do so) & the Northeastern US will be
warmer than usual this winter.

Tropical Storm Isaac: October 2, Update A

As expected, Isaac is now a Tropical Storm with winds of about 60mph.
He's moving along at a rather brisk 41mph- to provide some context,
that's faster than me on a bike.

He has merged with that low front. The convection is ahead (to the
northeast) of the center which is completely in dry air. So Newfoundland
is probably experiencing some bad weather today but things should be
better by tomorrow morning even though the center of circulation won't
reach there until tomorrow.

This is my last post on Isaac.
J.
------------------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms (my
storm blog). If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your
local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official
forecast. This is not an official forecast.
------------------------------------------------------

Hurricane Isaac: October 1, Update A

Isaac has picked up forward speed (now moving at a decent 17mph) and he
is also moving in a more northerly direction, and will turn north-north
east in the next few hours.

He's a weak cat 1 at 80 mph (cat 1: 74-95mph), and I don't expect him to
get any stronger - if anything, he should start weakening soon because
he is in colder waters now and in that region of stronger shear I
mentioned yesterday. He will probably be a tropical storm by this time
tomorrow.

There's a chance that he will clip Canada, but it won't be anything
major by the time he gets there. Nothing as strong as some of the winter
storms they experience every year.

That's all to say about Isaac for now. Toodles.
J.
------------------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms (my
storm blog). If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your
local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official
forecast. This is not an official forecast.
------------------------------------------------------

Hurricane Isaac: September 30, Update A

As expected given the ocean temperatures and low wind shear, Isaac has
intensified. In the 11am NHC advisory this morning, he was upgraded to a
hurricane - the fifth hurricane of the season. The average number of
hurricanes per year is 6.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75mph (cat 1: 74-95 mph), so Isaac is
not a very strong cat 1. He is still moving fairly slowly at 7mph in a
northwestward direction.

He is heading into a region of slightly increased wind shear again, and
it looks like in a few hours he will start to interact with that low
front that I mentioned yesterday. He is still over water temperatures of
26-27 degs C and at his current speed and direction, he will be for
another day. So, there is room for a little more intensification in the
next 24 hours, but not too much. There is also a chance that he will not
intensify further - it's a battle between the ocean and atmosphere.

Not much more to say on this storm for now. All else is quiet out there
in the Atlantic.

In the Pacific on the other hand, Typhoon Xangsane killed 61 people in
the Phillippines (it hit the capital, Manila), and is now heading
towards Vietnam, due to hit there in a few hours. Typhoons are the same
as hurricanes, but that's the name for these tropical storms in the
western Pacific. This typhoon is about the same intensity as Isaac with
winds of 80mph, which makes it a mid-level cat 1 on our scale. But it
has already caused much havoc and mayhem in the far east - partly
because it hit a highly populated major city.

Until tomorrow.
J.
------------------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms (my
storm blog). If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your
local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official
forecast. This is not an official forecast.
------------------------------------------------------

TS Isaac: September 29, Update A

Welcome to my new two-step program.

Isaac is becoming a little better organized, and he has also started to
move in a more westward direction. The problem with this change in track
is two-fold:
1. It brings him a little closer to land (not so much of a problem really)
2. It keeps him over warm waters (of 26 deg C), which may mean that he
will intensify a bit more than expected.

The westward shift in direction is because high pressure has developed
in front of him (see blog entry: Hurricane Gordon & Hurricane Helene:
September 16, Update A for why this would cause a more westward
movement). At the moment the models are divided as to how long this
west-north west motion will continue. There are two reasons for the
division in opinion:
1. They are trying to predict how long this high to the north of Isaac
will persist
2. There is a low pressure front moving eastward from the US into the
Atlantic, and depending on Isaac's speed, this will interact with the
storm and help him turn toward the north and then north-east.

Here's an image of the low front (band of clouds extending from the
north-east to the south-west off the US coast) and the storm:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/vis-l.jpg

By the way, this is the same low front that brought those chilly
temperatures of 83F (28 degs C) to Florida yesterday. Brrr.

Wind speeds within the system are 45mph (TS: 34-73mph). He is currently
moving along at a fairly slow 6mph (another indication that he's bumping
into high pressure). There is still dry air around the system, but he is
entering an area of weaker wind shear. So, there is room for some
intensification - between the shear and the warm water. Plus, as his
speed is quite slow, he will be over that warm water for longer.

Have a nice day,
J.
------------------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms (my
storm blog). If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your
local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official
forecast. This is not an official forecast.
------------------------------------------------------

Tropical Storm Isaac: September 28, Update A

The latest National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisory at 11am upgraded the
latest Tropical Depression to a Tropical Storm Isaac. Winds are around
40mph (TS wind range is 39-73mph), so he's a very very weak Tropical
Storm. They are basing this on satellite data of winds and as it is so
close to the lower limit of TS force winds, this upgrade in status is a
judgement call in my opinion. I probably would have kept it as a TD for
at least another advisory... but that would have been boring and you
wouldn't have heard from me. :)

Isaac is a dinky little thing really. There is dry air in the center and
to the south and west within the area of rotation. There is also dry air
surrounding the system. He is currently over water temperatures that are
barely 26 degs C, and is heading into cooler surface waters. The
subsurface waters are not really conducive for intensification. There is
some wind shear and although he is heading into a region of less shear I
don't know if that will be enough to allow much intensification.

The path keeps him out in the Atlantic.

I agree with the NHC, this storm won't get above a mid-level TS, if that.

I'll only send out one update a day on this one.
J.

P.S. If you have any questions feel free to send me an email. I'll try
and "make up" an answer ;)

------------------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms (my
storm blog). If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your
local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official
forecast. This is not an official forecast.
------------------------------------------------------

Tropical Storm Helene: September 25, Update A

She officially became a Tropical Storm yesterday morning. Not much to
say about her. Northern Europe can expect some windy weather and that's
about all.

This is the last entry on Helene. Nothing else is out there at the
moment... so over an out until the next one.
J.
------------------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms (my
storm blog). If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your
local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official
forecast. This is not an official forecast.
------------------------------------------------------

Hurricane Helene: September 23, Update A

Well she's still a hurricane, and a good sized cat 1 at that, with winds
of 90mph. She's definitely over cooler waters, so now she's what I would
consider to be more extratropical than tropical, and therefore her
intensity is being maintained by the atmosphere more than the ocean.
Cloud tops are low, there is dry air well within the system - so she's a
windy thing with a bit of rain perhaps.

She's heading towards northern Europe. My brother told me this morning
that what was left of Gordon brought about 2 drops of rain but he did
make the surfers up there happy with the windy conditions at sea.

Assuming the other big blob (sorry about this highly scientific jargon I
keep using) in the Atlantic doesn't develop into anything, I think I'll
take the day off tomorrow. Have a lovely weekend.
J.
------------------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms (my
storm blog). If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your
local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official
forecast. This is not an official forecast.
------------------------------------------------------

Hurricane Helene: September 22, Update A

She's picked up forward speed and is racing along at 21 mph now...
heading in the general direction of north Scotland (but that's still
days away). She'll be an extratropical system by then.

Her winds are at 85mph, so she's still a mid-strenght cat 1. But I
really expect her to weaken soon (24 hours) because more of the system
is in a stronger wind shear, she's moving over colder waters (25-26 degs
C), and dry air is being entrained into the system. As a reminder,
waters of 26 deg C are needed to sustain a tropical system (but not an
extratropical system). Her slight increase in wind speed since
yesterday's 80mph was from atmospheric effects, not because of the
ocean. The southern and western sides of this system looks pretty
ragged. The circulation in this storm is still quite strong, so she will
be a nice extratropical storm soon.

If you look at a satellite image of her now
(http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/vis-l.jpg) you can see a long
arm of clouds extending to the north. That was a low front that moved
westward (across the US and into the Atlantic) and has now interacted
with this hurricane.

That's all for today folks (unless the next system out there becomes a TS).
J.
------------------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms (my
storm blog). If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your
local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official
forecast. This is not an official forecast.
------------------------------------------------------

Hurricane Helene: September 21, Update A

Helene is barely a mid-sized cat 1 hurricane now, with winds of 80mph
(cat 1: 74-95mph) so it looks like the conditions I laid out yesterday
that would inhibit this system proved their worth. I don't think she
will re-intensify and in the last advisory the hurricane center also
brought down their intensity estimates.

She's moving at a pretty good 13mph now and will soon (in a day) be over
cooler waters. She is still entraining dry air, there is still some good
wind shear affecting her outer bands.

I think there's a good possibility that she will be a tropical storm by
this time tomorrow - although we are again looking at a storm that will
become extratropical. Really not much more to say on this at the moment.

J.
------------------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms (my
storm blog). If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your
local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official
forecast. This is not an official forecast.
------------------------------------------------------

Tropical Storm Gordon & Hurricance Helene: September 20, Update A

Tropical Storm Gordon:
This system is weakening, and it's projected path suggests that it might
miss Spain but clip France as it heads to the UK. By the time it gets to
the UK it won't be very strong; just rain and some windy weather. So
really, no difference from usual weather conditions in England :)

Hurricane Helene:
She's still a strong cat 2 with winds of 110mph. She's made that
north-west turn, so it looks like she's following in Gordon's footsteps
and avoiding Bermuda. This system is still moving forward at a
medium-paced 9mph. The eye is no longer visible on the satellite
imagery. This might be a cycle the storm is going through, or it might
be the beginning of a longer (but slow) decline. There's a chance she
will intensify slightly, which would make her a weak cat 3 again. But,
there are clues in both the ocean and atmosphere that suggest otherwise.
These are:
1. Dry air is being entrained into the outer regions of this system.
2. Although she is over water temps of 28-29 deg C, the subsurface
depths at which 26 deg C water extends down to is declining, (which
means that the source of energy is being reduced) and will continue to
decline in the path that she is currently on.
3. She is entering a region of slightly stronger wind shear.
At the moment, these conditions are not strong enough to reduce her
intensity by much, but they are enough to possibly inhibit future
enhancement. At the very extreme, she'll get to a weak cat 3 for a short
time and then start a decline.

I'll only send out one update a day unless anyone knows anyone in the UK
in which case I can send out more frequent updates to those
interested... oh wait, that would be me... :)

J.
------------------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms (my
storm blog). If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your
local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official
forecast. This is not an official forecast.
------------------------------------------------------