[Jyo_hurricane] TS Noel: October 31, Update C

Noel is no longer stationary (hurray hurray) and is moving northward away
from Cuba, ahead of the expected north-eastward turn into the Bahamas.
This is the time to watch, because he is moving away from land, is over
warm water (>28 deg C) and is temporarily in an area of slightly lower
wind shear so if he is going to grow, I agree with the NHC, it will be
within the next day. The 'center of circulation' is still on the western
edge of the convection, although not as much as removed from it as it has
been in the past few days.

The convection associated with this system is very impressive, and his
wind speed is up to 60 mph making him a moderate-to-strong storm.

That's all for today folks. I'll be back. Tomorrow. :)
J.

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-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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[Jyo_hurricane] TS Noel: October 31, Update B

Just a quick note for now, and maybe another update later this evening.

Noel is stuck just off the northern coast of Cuba - stationary storms
are not something I'm not fond of because it introduces an added level
of uncertainty in both the intensity and track forecast. He is
stationary because he is bumping up against that high that I've
mentioned over the past few days. However, I think he will be making a
move towards the north-east soon - either that or the NHC is correct in
thinking that his center might be trying to "re-form" in the center of
the convective activity over the Bahamas (north-east of his current
location). This is a complicated atmospheric situation - it is fun
trying to figure it out :)

Although there is wind shear, and he is interacting with land, his
center is stationary over warm water. His wind speed is now about 50
mph, and southeast Florida is under a Tropical Storm watch (not
warning). There is *a lot* of moisture associated with this storm -
again, all over the Bahamas at the moment (all north-east of the center
of circulation).

I sent out a website a few storms ago that allows you to look at the
water level 'live'. Go to tidesonline.nos.noaa.gov. Scroll down on the
left side until you see 'State Maps'. Click on that, then click on
Florida, then click on Virginia Key (for example) and you can see the
real-time water level, pressure decrease etc. associated with this
storm. This is a small fraction of the sort of information that a
real-time ocean observing system can provide :)

Have a fun evening!
J.

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DISCLAIMER:
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the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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[Jyo_hurricane] TS Noel: October 31, Update A

I was going to send out another update yesterday but there wasn't much to
add from the morning update - during the day he continued to move westward
over Cuba and it knocked some wind out of him (all puns intended :) ).

His current wind speed max is about 40 mph (TS: 39 - 73 mph), so he's
barely a TS. Actually, other than some very heavy convection over the
Bahamas, I'm not sure he would be a TS. I'm glad that the NHC know where
his center of circulation is, because from the satellite images it is
difficult to identify and from a wind-based analysis it looks like the
lower level atmospheric circulation is slightly south of Cuba, the
mid-levels are over northern Cuba, and there isn't any to speak of at the
upper levels.

He is still in a region of moderate-to-strong wind shear, so the rainfall
activity is still to the north and east of the circulation.

He is now moving in a north-northwestward direction, suggesting that he is
beginning to make that turn and is moving clockwise around that little
high pressure (from the '6' to towards the '9' if it was a clock face). He
is still over Cuba, but if the center is where the NHC says it is, he is
about to emerge off northern Cuba. Inhibiting development is the wind
shear, but he will be over warmer waters again - over 28 deg C. If he is
making 'the turn', later today he should be moving northward.

The windy weather we have been having over Florida over the past couple of
days was not because we were feeling the storm, but because of the
complicated low pressure front and stubborn high pressure system in a
relatively small area creating a big gradient in pressure - the stronger
the gradient, the stronger the wind flows. But in the next day or two, the
breezy winds will most likely be from the storm, and those of you down in
south-east Florida may experience them - currently TS winds are being felt
175 miles from the center. If he makes the northward turn, then his center
and heavy convection will stay away from south Florida. That's what to
look for today. But even if his center comes close to Florida, the
precipitation (which is what this storm is all about more than the wind)
will be to the east, and mostly offshore.

I'll send out another update today when/if things change. I guess no-one
told Noel he's here on the wrong holiday. Have a Happy Halloween.
J.

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-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
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the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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[Jyo_hurricane] Correction: Tropical Storm Noel: October 30, Update A

Oops...Correction:

> The computer model tracks are all over the place - the only
> thing they agree on in a curve to the north-west somewhere in the
northern
> Bahamas.

I meant to say a curve to the north and then north-east (taking it away
from the US). It's still morning here - I typed that with my eyes
half-shut ;)

Also, I might as well add that I read the latest NHC report since the last
note I sent, and the center of Noel's circulation is over Cuba still
moving westward.

J.

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-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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[Jyo_hurricane] Tropical Storm Noel: October 30, Update A

TS Noel is still out there, with winds of about 60mph. He is moving
westward at about 12 mph and has a central pressure of 999mb.

Unfortunately, instead of heading north-north-westward or even
north-westward, he has been moving westward over the last few hours, which
means that the heavy convection that was over the Dominican Republic did
reach Haiti. He is moving westward along the southern edge of that high
pressure I mentioned yesterday. Remember, in the northern hemisphere,
movement is clockwise around a high pressure system.

The farther west he moves, the closer he comes to Florida when he makes
his north-westward turn, however, if he continues westward then he will
cross Cuba, which may be too much for him. The pressure maps show a weak
high extending into the Gulf (across Cuba), but I should hopefully get a
much better idea of what is going on later this morning when I can see the
latest data. The computer model tracks are all over the place - the only
thing they agree on in a curve to the north-west somewhere in the northern
Bahamas. I am not 100% convinced of this yet.

He is moving along the northern edge of Cuba. The water temperatures are
still over 28 deg C - this is above the 26.5 deg needed to sustain a
storm.

Now for the good news (yes, there is some):

He is moving along the northern edge of Cuba. So a part of him is
interacting with land. Continuing west will take him over Cuba. He is
still in a region of moderate wind sheer, so the convection is mostly on
the north and east side of the circulation center.

The upper atmospheric levels of circulation are slightly removed from the
lower and mid levels, which should help inhibit development.

I'll send out another update later today. Let me know if you have any
questions.

Toodles,
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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[Jyo_hurricane] Tropical Storm Noel: October 29, Update B

TS Noel is now relaxing and drinking pina coladas in the Bahamas (or
maybe that's what I wish I was doing ;) ). It's been a busy morning -
he crossed Hispaniola, had his center of circulation relocated by the
NHC to the north, and has fallen apart quite a bit because of a
combination of the mountainous terrain and higher wind shear. The
convection has decreased, and at the moment it doesn't look likely that
he will reintensify very much. His track is generally north-westward.

The circulation is still very broad and disorganized, and they are
planning on sending a plane in later today to see if they can find the
center. All the models will have to be re-initialized with the new
center location, so if you are looking at their tracks at the moment,
they will all change in a few hours.

There is a low front that is hanging out over Florida at the moment (for
those in Florida: look up, see clouds?, that's it). This is separated
from the Tropical Storm by a small high pressure system, which has been
weakening since yesterday. So at some point, if the storm hasn't already
moved northeastward out into the Atlantic, the low front should help it
on it's merry way.

Maybe one more later...
Ciao,
J.

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-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
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[Jyo_hurricane] TS Noel: October 29, Update A

Good morning,

TS Noel has deteriorated even further since yesterday and now has winds
of about 45mph (TS: 39-73 mph), so he is a fairly weak system. It looks
like most of Haiti is going to get away with only a little rain as most
of the really heavy precipitation is continuing over the Dominican
Republic. Of the two sides of Hispaniola this is probably a good thing
because of the greater potential for mudslides in Haiti.

The center of Noel is about to pass over Haiti - the convection is still
to the east of where the NHC thinks the center of circulation is.
Actually, looking at the satellite images it is difficult to pinpoint an
exact center. He is moving north-northwestward at about 6mph, and will
be crossing into the Atlantic/Bahamas in the next 24 hours. I agree with
the official forecasts that have him staying in the Atlantic, east of
Florida.

More later... have a lovely day. :)
J.

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-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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[Jyo_hurricane] Tropical Storm Noel: October 28, Update B

Tropical Storm Noel (pronounced 'Nol' or 'Knoll' according to the National
Hurricane Center - NHC) is still a disorganized mass of heavy convection,
bringing a lot of rain to the Dominican Republic at the moment, and Haiti
soon.

Because he is not well defined, it is difficult to see where the exact
center of circulation is - circulation is over a very broad area,
encompassing portions of Hispaniola. Complicating this is that the
convection is still to the east of the circulation. He has room to move
north-northwestward for a while, and for now I agree with those tracks
that take him close to Haiti and eastern Cuba, and then to the
Atlantic/Bahamas.

The lack of organization, possibly passing over Hispaniola, and moderate
wind shear should keep him at bay, although water temperatures are over 28
deg C. Current winds are at 60 mph (TS: 39-73 mph).

Until tomorrow...
J.

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-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
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[Jyo_hurricane] Tropical Depression 16: October 28, Update A

Well, just about one more month to go until the official end to the
season, and it's not *quite* over yet. I was quite enjoying the lovely
high wind-shear hiatus but a pesky little tropical depression has been
developing for the past few days, and is now officially TD 16 in the
north-eastern Caribbean - just south of Hispaniola.

There is some very good convective activity associated with this system,
but it is not very well organized and is still in a relatively high wind
shear environment (the convection is east/northeast of the circulation).
There is some circulation at the lower levels of the atmosphere south of
Hispaniola, but upper level circulation is a little removed and is
centered between Hispaniola and Cuba.

There's a chance that this will become a Tropical Storm. At the moment it
is a fairly week system (other than the areas where there are
thunderstorms and heavy rainfall), and I agree with the general
west-northwest movement over the next day or so. The storm is too weak and
it is too soon to say much more about the future track, other than the
intensity will depend on that track.

More soon(ish). Have a good weekend :)
J.

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-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
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[Jyo_hurricane] The Tropical Remains of the Day: October 1, Update A

TD Karen has been downgraded to a low with no more NHC advisories. TS
Melissa is a TD but is so weak that the NHC has also stopped advisories.
There is still some circulation with both systems, so I will check up on
them once in a while, but this is my last entry on both.

The wind shear was really strong - too much for them to cope with. I'm
sure you've been on the edge of your seats wondering what I wanted to say
about wind shear... so here you go...

Maybe you have heard that in an El Nino year we have fewer Atlantic storms
because the wind shear is strong, and conversely, in a La Nina year we
have more storms because the wind shear is weak? An El Nino year is when
the waters in the central/eastern Pacific are warmer than usual, with
associated changes in the overlying atmosphere. A La Nina is when the
waters are colder than usual. The temperature change usually peaks in the
winter months.

I do not agree that there is such a strong connection between El Nino/La
Nina and the hurricane season - there is *some* connection, but not as
much as some folks would like everyone to believe.

Last year the much-vaunted justification for an "unexpectedly" quiet
season was because of a surpise El Nino that resulted in a strong wind
shear, which supressed the storms. That (in my humble opinion) is
incorrect (and hence not unexpected). The 2006 season was weak for a
number of other reasons.

This year, we heard that the season would be strong partly because of a La
Nina that would result in weaker wind shear. I agree with one part of
this. We are, indeed, in a La Nina. You can check the temperatures in the
Pacific at any time by going to http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/.
If
you click on the figure with the colorful panels, the map will get big
enough to see the details. At the moment, temperatures are -2.5 deg C
below the average in the Pacific - most definitely a La Nina.

So the slight flaw in the wind shear argument is that we are in a La Nina
and the wind shear is pretty strong.

Clearly, there are still a "couple of things" we need to work out about
hurricanes and our present-day climate in general. But for now, it's time
for a glass of wine. Priorities you know. ;)

If you have any questions, about this or some other aspect of hurricanes,
please don't hesitate to ask.

So, until there's something else out there... or it's the last day of the
season - whatever comes first, ciao,
J.

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-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
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[Jyo_hurricane] TD Karen & TS Melissa: September 29, Update A

TD Karen:

After so many days of being in a strong wind shear environment (over 30 kt
shear), Karen is looking really poorly and just got downgraded to a
Tropical Depression. I would completely agree with that. Her track was a
bit loopy yesterday (but then again, whose isn't? ;) ), but she is now
heading northwestward. I'll still be watching her because there is some
circulation, but won't send anything out unless there's a change
(instensification or otherwise).

TS Melissa:

Formerly TD 14 in the eastern Atlantic, TS Melissa is a weak system and is
heading west-northwestward. She is also in a relatively high wind shear
environment, which is not helping her cause. The forecast track takes her
out to the Atlantic. Like Karen, I won't send anything out on her unless
there is a change, or unless she looks like she is heading towards land.

I was going to give you all something to ponder over concerning the strong
wind shear, but it's the weekend and you probably have lots of other fun
things to do. So I'll save that for a rainy day - but don't forget that
these storms are having difficulty developing because of the strong wind
shear. I'll be mentioning it again soon.

Have fun! :)
J.

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-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and
the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National
Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run
away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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[Jyo_hurricane] TS Karen, the remains of Lorenzo, and TD 14: September 28, Update A

I'll start with the easiest first.

TD 14:
This is a new Tropical Depression, way out in the eastern Atlantic,
close to the Cape Verde Islands. It has some circulation and
convection. It is heading in a northwestward direction into the
Atlantic at the moment. Unless someone tells me they know someone on the
Cape Verde Islands, I won't send anything else on this until I becomes a
named storm. So... er... more on this later today then.

TD Lorenzo, formally known as TS Lorenzo, and briefly known as Hurricane
Lorenzo:
He was moving so slowly that he did have a chance to intensify some more
before making landfall. He was upgraded to a hurricane yesterday
evening, and stayed as such for about 5-6 hours, but rapidly lost steam
(puns always intended :) ) after making landfall at around 1 am this
morning in Mexico. He's now inland and a depression so this is my last
entry on him.

TS Karen:
She's still out in the Atlantic and that very strong westerly wind shear
is successfully keeping her disorganized, so all the convection is to
the east of the circulation. Until a few hours ago there wasn't too much
deep convection to speak of, but since the last NHC advisory the deep
convection has picked up again. This might be a mid-afternoon
strengthening. The NHC forecast has her downgraded to a depression at
the next advisory, but with this convective activity, they might hold
back from that. Either way, she's a weak system at the moment.

They did move her long-term track a little closer to the islands, as
expected. Her movement has been a little doolalee (sp?) today, because
the high pressure that has been steering her in a west-northwestward
direction until now has changed a bit. It stayed strong to the north and
east, but also started building up to the west, so she has had this
little pocket in which she is moving around in a circular manner - she
started at 15.1N, 49.2W a few hours ago, and is now at 15.9N, 49.2W but
looks like she might head back southward a bit - it is difficult to tell
when she will finish this circular sort of motion. There's a chance she
will get out of this and instead of resuming her west-northwestward
track, she will move a bit more north-northwestward (away from land) -
it is tricky to see at the moment, so I might send out another note
later today once she has finished dancing in circles.

That's all for now folks!
J.

-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and
the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National
Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run
away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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[Jyo_hurricane] TS Karen & TS Lorenzo: September 27, Update A

TS Karen:
She's undergoing some *very* strong wind shear from the west (at least
50 knots in some places) so if you look at a satellite image you can see
a beautiful rotation and center of circulation, but all the convection
is to her east. I don't remember seeing such strong wind shear for any
storm so far this season. She remains a TS, and it looks like that shear
will continue for a day or so. The high pressure has not weakened much
since yesterday, so I expect her to maintain a west-northwest path for
the next few days. This will keep her in the Atlantic, but maybe a bit
closer to the VIs (in 4-5 days) than the current cone suggests. She's
still moving at around 12 mph, and has winds of about 65 mph.

TS Lorenzo:
TD 13 was named earlier this afternoon after a plane went into the
system and found 60 mph winds (TS: 39-73mph; 34-63kt). He is moving at a
mere 3mph in a south-westward direction and is over waters of 29-31 deg
C. He is also very close to land (Mexico) so it is unlikely he will
develop much more than this - but because he is moving so slowly, the
center won't make landfall until early tomorrow morning. He is mostly a
rain event. Probably another system which will be a named tropical
storm for less than 24 hours.

I suppose if we are to have above average years, then these are the
sorts of storms to have!

Toodles for today,
J.

-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and
the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National
Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run
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[Jyo_hurricane] TS Karen, TD 13, and the Florida Blob: September 26, Update A

This is like a box of chocolates - there's an assortment of things out
there.

Tropical Storm Karen:
As expected, she has strengthened and is now close to hurricane strength
with winds of 70mph (Cat 1: 74-95mph, 64-82kt). The deep convection has
just decreased, but that's just a temporary blip and not a long term
decrease, so we might see Hurricane Karen by the end of today. She is
over waters warmer than 28 deg C, but is in a region of reasonably
strong wind shear so that might help to keep the intensity down for a
while. As for the track, the pressure maps show the high that has been
steering her westwards is a little weaker. I can see the low that is
supposed to erode the high, but the question is will it happen before
she gets close to the Caribbean. Some models say yes, others say maybe
not. For now, I would say she'll stay on a west-northwest path for the
next 24 hours, which is more westward than the official center of cone
forecast. There is still room and time for her to stay in the Atlantic,
but I would still be prepared on the islands (don't put your rain gear
away yet :) ). She's plodding along at 13 mph, and will take another 5-6
days still to get to the Caribbean vicinity.

Tropical Depression 13:
The blobette that was hanging out over the western Gulf did a little
wonder woman swirl (which is going to be really embarrassing for it
later if it gets the manly name, TS Lorenzo) and re-emerged a bit
farther south (still in the western Gulf) as a tropical depression -
close to a tropical storm. The high pressure that it was stuck against
intensified southwards, so this system is still more-or-less stuck and
is drifting southwards at a grand 2 mph - the only reason we know this
is because a Hurricane Hunter plane was in the system this morning to
check if it was a storm, and will go in again this afternoon to check if
it is a TS. It is a very weak system, so it's tricky finding the center
of circulation from the satellite imagery. The models all have it going
south-southwest. It looks like there was a couple of millimeters of
Mexico that didn't get rain from earlier storms this year, so this
system might head in that direction. It's over warm waters and the
longer it stays there, the greater the chances for intensification.
Circulation for this system is in the lower to mid-levels of the
troposphere.

South Florida Blob:
The blobette that did not have much circulation to speak off over
southern Florida yesterday is now over the Straits of Florida region,
and has circulation in the lower and mid-levels of the troposphere.
There is more circulation in this system than there is in TD 13. There
is also a nice amount of convection associated with this system but the
center of circulation (southwestern Florida & Straits) is to the west of
the area of convection (southeastern Florida/Straits/Bahamas). It's
worth keeping an eye on this blob, particularly because there is
circulation, and because it is over the deep warm waters of the Loop
Current-Florida Current-Gulf Stream system.

Just as an aside, the official names for the Straits on either side of
Cuba are the "Straits of Florida" and the "Yucatan Straits". I have to
point this out because it drives one of my colleagues bananas when he
hears things like the "Florida Straits". Of course, if you want to see
him go bananas, now you know what to do. :)

There are other things out there, but nothing worth really writing about
at the moment.

Stay tuned... (or not) :)
J.

-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and
the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National
Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run
away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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[Jyo_hurricane] Tropical Storm Karen and the Blobettes: September 25, Update A

Does that title sound like a band name? :)

Welcome to the 11th named storm of the season - this is now officially
an 'average' season with 11 named storms, and so far a below-average
season as far as hurricanes go (average number of hurricanes = 6, so
they need to make up another 3 to reach that goal).

As you all know by now, the BIG BLOB from yesterday got upgraded from an
invest to a tropical depression to a tropical storm *really* quickly. No
surprise there (unless you weren't reading my blog, in which case...
Surprise!!!). She has circulation in the lower and mid-levels of the
troposphere and heavy convection covering many hundreds of miles.

She is in the central Atlantic, at about 11N, 39W heading in a
west-northwestward direction at 15 mph. The forecast track still keeps
this storm away from land, and curves it northward into the Atlantic. If
I were on the islands though, I would still be prepared for some stormy
weather in a few days (as well as today). The high pressure over the
Atlantic extends into the Caribbean, which suggests a more westward
track for the next 24 hours, in agreement with the NHC track for that
time. At the moment I don't know if the low that the models are
predicting will erode this high (beginning tomorrow) and cause the
system to move northward, but she is at least 4-5 days away from the
Caribbean and my time machine is in the shop at the moment so I can't
see what will happen that far ahead. We'll have a much better idea of
things this time tomorrow as that high is supposed to begin eroding and
the forecast track shows a more northwestward movement instead of
west-northwest.

She's a weak TS with winds of about 40mph (35kt) - barely a TS (34-63
kt, 39-73mph). Although this is the same wind speed as "Jerry" (cough
cough... sorry, something got stuck in my throat), this storm has far
more heavy convection and, unlike Jerry, she will get stronger. She is
over waters of 28 deg C and about to enter waters of 29 deg C (parts of
her are already over these slightly warmer waters). On the north side of
the storm there is some westerly wind shear (westerly meaning winds from
the west). The forecast says that she will barely be a cat 1 hurricane
in 5 days because of anticipated wind shear and upper atmospheric
conditions that prevent her from growing. Doesn't that sound nice?

The Blobettes:

There's a struggling blobette still partying in the Lesser Antilles and
heading towards the VIs. It has some low-level circulation, and some
deep convection. Enjoy the much-needed rain!

There's another struggling blobette just hanging out in the western Gulf
of Mexico with the fish. This one hasn't moved much because it is stuck
against a high pressure system to the north and west, so it is difficult
to see where it will move when it does get going but Texas might be
getting some rain again soon. There is some low-level circulation and
some associated convection - the rainfall in LA is associated with this.

There's a mass of convection off southern Florida and in the Bahamas. No
circulation to speak of, just squally weather.

TS Jerry. I know I said that yesterday was my last entry on this system,
but the NHC are just writing things I can't resist commenting on. Their
final entry was last night (after mine) and they upgraded the system
from a Tropical Depression to a TS again! It makes no sense. It was
11pm so maybe they were tired. This is what they wrote:

"CONSEQUENTLY...JERRY IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THIS IS THE
LAST ADVISORY. AS JERRY ACCELERATED THIS EVENING...MAXIMUM WINDS AT THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH INCREASED TO ABOUT 40 KT ACCORDING TO THE QUIKSCAT
DATA...HENCE THE APPARENT UPGRADE BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM."

Umm... I don't see how "no longer a tropical cyclone" can be upgraded to
a "tropical storm"? Answers on a postcard please.

Right, that *really* is my final entry on Jerry (until the next one ;) ).

And enough picking on the NHC (for now). I agree to disagree on this
particular storm. Generally, I think they do a good (and difficult) job.

I'll be back.
J.

Blog archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and
the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National
Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run
away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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[Jyo_hurricane] TD Jerry and BIG BLOB (and little blob): September 24, Update B

BIG BLOB (Technical Term):
I will start with the blob that is, perhaps, the most worrisome to me at
the moment. Although the NHC have not yet given it an official
designation, I am writing about it so that those in the Caribbean (and
beyond) can keep an eye on it. It is at ~ 11N, 33W on the southern edge of
a high in the Atlantic, and following the edge of the high that path takes
it into the Caribbean and then turning northward into the Atlantic. The
good news (as you know, I'm ever the optimist) is that it is unlikely that
this high will stay the same shape over the next few days: the computer
models are even more land-friendly, and just curve it out into the
Atlantic before it gets to the Caribbean islands. It is currently on a
west-northwestward path.

I mentioned this blob in previous messages as the one in the far eastern
Atlantic. It is now in the central Atlantic with the deep convection
covering about 600 miles in the E-W direction and about 500 miles in the
N-S direction. There is good circulation with this system in the lower and
middle troposphere (the lower layer of the atmosphere, which extends to
about 12-13 km height), and circulation is slowly developing at higher
altitudes.

TD Jerry:
The NHC finally downgraded Tropical Storm Jerry to a Tropical Depression
at the 11am advisory this morning. So it was officially a tropical storm
for 24 hours. This is my last note on this "storm". Hurray hurray. Time to
celebrate! :)

Blobettes (oooh... a new "technical" term ;) ):
There's a much smaller blob (blobette) currently partying in the windward
islands (where else would blobettes party? :)). It is bringing some heavy
convection and only has circulation in the lower levels of the atmosphere.
Not much more to say about this for now.

There is also an itsy bitsy blobette in the Gulf, but at the moment it
doesn't look like this will develop much. There is some convection
spreading northward over land (look up if you live anywhere in Louisiana
or Mississippi).

That's all for today folks (I feel like I should be chewing on a carrot
when I write that :) ).
J.

Blog archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and
the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National
Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run
away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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[Jyo_hurricane] Tropical Storm Jerry & other important blobs: September 24, Update A

Subtropical Storm Jerry aquired 'tropical characteristics' by the 11pm
advisory last night to become Tropical Storm Jerry. It was at a latitude
of about 37N, and over water temperatures of less than 26 deg C. As you
know, I disagree on naming this one in the first place so I won't even
begin to quibble over this designation. The deep convection continues to
remain minimal, and it did not reach persistent winds greater than 35 kt
(40 mph) all day yesterday (and even now), which is just 1 kt (1mph) above
the boundary between a T. Depression and a T. Storm. We had more deep
convective activity in the eastern Gulf and from Florida to Louisiana
yesterday than there was in this storm combined for the entire day.

Speaking of FL to LA - for a change, everyone but TX got rain yesterday.
:) It was a really impressive spread of activity with no real formation -
I quite enjoyed watching it on the satellite imagery. Looks like more
stuff (technical term) is heading for Louisiana today as well.

The other blobs.

1. There is some circulation at the lower level of the atmosphere just
east of the windward islands, at around 12N, 57W. It has some convection
with it, and is moving westward. It isn't very big so just something to
keep an eye on, especially once it enters the Caribbean.

2. The biggest blob (sounds like a sequel to "The Blob" - which, by the
way, is being remade yet again for release next year for the 50th
anniversary) is still out in the eastern/central Atlantic at ~10N, 30W.
This continues to have some impressive circulation for a system that is
still developing, as well as a large area of convection. At the moment it
looks like it will stay out in the Atlantic though.

More later I'm sure...
J.
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and
the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National
Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run
away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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[Jyo_hurricane] Subtropical Storm Jerry: September 23, Update A

I know some of you are expecting this already... Sunday Rant!

Great as they are, I *completely* disagree with the NHC on the naming of
this storm. I wish I had saved the GOES IR satellite image from earlier
this morning to show you how much this storm has fallen apart between the
5am and 11am advisories. I have saved the 11am image, but need a
comparison image to make the point. I had a quick look around on the web
but can't find an archive of those images. I can't believe they have named
yet another storm this year which does not warrant it. Grrr arrrgh
(cartoon steam coming out of my ears). That takes the total "named storms"
up to 10, of which I think at least 3 (or is it 4 now?) shouldn't have
been named.

The NHC justification in the 11am discussion: "AN 0807 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS
INDICATED THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE CIRCULATION ARE AT LEAST 35 KT AND
SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS GIVE A SUBTROPICAL T-NUMBER OF 2.5 USING THE
HEBERT-POTEAT METHOD. THE SYSTEM IS THEREFORE UPGRADED TO SUBTROPICAL
STORM JERRY."

First, 0807 UTC (Coordinated Universal Time) was at ~4am Eastern Daylight
Time (EDT) this morning. Their 5am EDT advisory had moved it from a low up
to a subtropical depression, which I agree with. But I guess they didn't
look at the latest images for their 11am advisory. It is amazing what you
can see if you look at the latest information - what a novel idea, hey?
Maybe this would explain why I saw landfall for TD10 about 4 hours before
the offical agreement.

My second comment is that they upgraded this storm because they calculated
winds of 35 kt. Satellite wind speed categorization is not 100% accurate,
which is partly why there is a post-season analysis. Subtropical/tropical
storm winds are 34kt-63kt. Their estimate of wind speed is ~1 knot (!!!)
difference from the TS category - this is within the margin of error.

My final comment is a little more political (because as you all know,
science and politics are the same thing these days). It is good to know
that when the QuickScat satellite goes away, there will be fewer named
storms. Maybe insurance rates will come down then. Maybe I'll finally see
a cow jump over the moon. In case you don't remember, QuickScat was the
excuse at the "center of the storm" earlier this year when Bill Proenza
(head of the NHC for about 5 minutes) was fired. To sum up that fiasco: he
said that information from QuickScat is needed but the NHC staff didn't
agree and said that QuickScat winds aren't as important and their analysis
would not be compromised if this data was not available.

There is even less deep convection in this system at this time than when I
wrote my earlier report.

When the NHC does their post-season analysis, I wonder if they ever
'down-grade' a storm. I know storms have been upgraded. Did I already say
this earlier this year? I've been thinking it for a while.

Grr...
J.
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and
the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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[Jyo_hurricane] Subtropical Depression 11 & other blobs: September 23, Update A

Subtropical Depression 11:

There's been a persistent area of circulation way out in the subtropical
Atlantic (36N, 46W) for a few days (nowhere near land, and on a road to
nowhere). Yesterday the convection began to increase so in the early hours
of this morning (5am) it was officially designated Subtropical Depression
11. Although the forecast calls for continued strengthening to a named
"tropical" storm (beginning with the next advisory), at the moment I don't
see that happening. It is over cold water temperatures of 24-25 deg C,
which is below the 26.5C value for storm maintenance. Also, in the last
few hours it looks like the deep convective activity has fallen apart. The
center of circulation is broad and is encased in dry air. This system is
headng in a general north-northeastward direction, so no-one need be
concerned with this (unless you happen to be on a boat out in the middle
of the Atlantic).

Other Blobs:

1. There is a large area of convective activity and general cloudiness
stretching from Central America to the northern Gulf of Mexico and a bit
of circulation near the Yucatan, close to sea level. The circulation was
stronger yesterday but weakend when crossing the Yucatan Peninsula. The
only reason I mention it is because it is emerging into the Gulf (west of
the Loop Current) and I'll be keeping an eye on it.

2. There is an area of circulation about 450 miles east of the windward
islands. It is quite far south, at 10N, 55W. It has some convection east
of the center of circulation. If this doesn't move slightly northward or
develop soon, it may not develop at all before it gets too close to the S.
American landmass.

3. The one I'll really be watching closely is the blob that is out in the
eastern Atlantic, now west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. It is
still quite far away at ~9N, 27W, but there is some good circulation and
heavy convection already associated with this system.

I guess you'll be hearing from me later. That should make it a happy
Sunday for you. :)
J.
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and
the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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[Jyo_hurricane] TD 10: September 22, Update A

Tropical Depression? what tropical depression? According to the NHC, TD 10
made official landfall near Fort Walton Beach (FL) about four hours after
I sent out the previous note. The only revelation I have to report since
yesterday is that what I thought was the Panama City area actually turns
out to be the Fort Walton Beach area. Oops. Sorry panhandle residents -
hey, at least I can locate the US on a map. ;)

So landfall was where I said it looked like it was happening, just four
hours before official landfall (I was clearly caught in a time loop
thingy...now if only I could figure out how to "see" the lottery numbers).

It is/was still a rain event, so I expect there are a lot of soggy leaves
out there.

This is my last entry on TD 10.

On to other things. For those of you who like to look at the satellite
images on a daily basis because it is "fun", there are a number of things
the NHC are keeping an eye on. Some of them don't look like developing to
me, and none of them are formally TDs yet. At least two that I will be
watching include:
1. a broad area of convection (a lot of convection) in the northwestern
Caribbean, which has some circulation. It's sort of moving over the
Yucatan peninsula at the moment.
2. way way out in the eastern Atlantic, south of the Cape Verde Islands is
an area of circulation and convection. It is very broad, but roughly in
the vicinity of 8N, 22W.

I have to go now and concentrate on those winning lottery numbers. Have a
good weekend. ;)
J.
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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