tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-342445282024-03-05T00:19:10.488-05:00Jyotika's Tropical Storms BlogChristopherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15731556832558952660noreply@blogger.comBlogger1028125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34244528.post-64860043728208339522023-09-14T00:35:00.002-04:002023-09-14T00:42:00.278-04:00Hurricanes Lee and Margot: September 13th, Update A<div class="ujudUb" jsname="U8S5sf" style="caret-color: rgb(32, 33, 36); color: #202124; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin-bottom: 12px;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia; font-size: 16px;">Hurricane SlowLEE (teehee) is finally approaching land, so </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia; font-size: 16px;">I thought I better pop in and say a few words. And also, we have just crossed the statistical mid-way mark of the hurricane season (Sept 10th)... </span></div><div class="ujudUb" jsname="U8S5sf" style="caret-color: rgb(32, 33, 36); margin-bottom: 12px;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; color: #202124; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhr_QI8WMK0CgbvwH4VJk4DToHyZVf8miJxK5N8-cO0P8rscgAF0_UWCpI4Y5qnHTJ_tKEDQAyLD658lVNN8_rrdiHvZnHUWWV39NuW0zkZj2ItKZTMaG19N-HNronBjDWreiNa399Gn_7cXZRnE-uZnOS5NUsDk9TxuBZYu5q9QC4g58FIGNn-" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="467" data-original-width="830" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhr_QI8WMK0CgbvwH4VJk4DToHyZVf8miJxK5N8-cO0P8rscgAF0_UWCpI4Y5qnHTJ_tKEDQAyLD658lVNN8_rrdiHvZnHUWWV39NuW0zkZj2ItKZTMaG19N-HNronBjDWreiNa399Gn_7cXZRnE-uZnOS5NUsDk9TxuBZYu5q9QC4g58FIGNn-=w400-h225" width="400" /></a></div><div class="ujudUb" jsname="U8S5sf" style="caret-color: rgb(32, 33, 36); color: #202124; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin-bottom: 12px;"><br /></div><div class="ujudUb" jsname="U8S5sf" style="caret-color: rgb(32, 33, 36); margin-bottom: 12px;">Wo-oah, we're halfway there, wo-oah... </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiGduEk57JYa1n_nIM5UnHSIhU7Mb-BYoYCwxHiv3Y1CuX0YGJk5k6cQdih2OW6WbSUumxqKxX61g37sTSm7V9UQWP8iECC-toWX6Rb7wiW-lwYupPmvDUMaN4uCyfs12HVT2GmowlZ6qj41Z2ooI6g5XHlF_gPJHorL2pWW8tPS3WFllZC7BzM" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="960" data-original-width="714" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiGduEk57JYa1n_nIM5UnHSIhU7Mb-BYoYCwxHiv3Y1CuX0YGJk5k6cQdih2OW6WbSUumxqKxX61g37sTSm7V9UQWP8iECC-toWX6Rb7wiW-lwYupPmvDUMaN4uCyfs12HVT2GmowlZ6qj41Z2ooI6g5XHlF_gPJHorL2pWW8tPS3WFllZC7BzM" width="179" /></a></div><div class="ujudUb" jsname="U8S5sf" style="caret-color: rgb(32, 33, 36); margin-bottom: 12px;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div>(and if you are like me, you will never sing the original lyrics to that song again! :-)).<br /><br /></span><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia;">Lee been a been moving at a bit of a sedate pace as storms go - he was named on the 5th of Sept, and looked a bit ferocious on the 7th when he was officially and briefly a cat 5 hurricane, but dropped down cat 4 on the 8th and he's been weakening since then, so he is now a cat 2 storm with winds of 105mph (cat 2 range: 96-110mph), central pressure of 953mb. </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia;">He's not as robust looking as he was earlier in his life:</span></p></div><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia; font-size: 16px;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiKrcxJHbL6pnmg4xpGmAUZQ8wXN8JNyhVB0McacdmtZzacVdwkdXK6O3J5-PrhKVrgWPfJ3KDrE2WB9ZzTKCd1yXDedK3ok9BU5SBJPJ29Pe3bPqVfiby509F51srbmYYFOy9C1eKpHJqYDYxFMlo5hw_TMUSnt8y9lw4j6hecuDYfUt1X_zBo/s500/floater_floater_AL132023_band11_48fr_20230913-2354.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="500" data-original-width="500" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiKrcxJHbL6pnmg4xpGmAUZQ8wXN8JNyhVB0McacdmtZzacVdwkdXK6O3J5-PrhKVrgWPfJ3KDrE2WB9ZzTKCd1yXDedK3ok9BU5SBJPJ29Pe3bPqVfiby509F51srbmYYFOy9C1eKpHJqYDYxFMlo5hw_TMUSnt8y9lw4j6hecuDYfUt1X_zBo/w640-h640/floater_floater_AL132023_band11_48fr_20230913-2354.gif" width="640" /></a></div><p style="text-align: left;"><br /><span style="font-family: georgia;">There is still some convection (rain and thundery weather) but it's not as evenly spread as one would see in a hurricane, but he does clearly have an eye and his circulation is throughout the troposphere so he is definitely a hurricane. He is expected to decrease in intensity and there are many reasons to think this will be the case. First, there is some wind shear ahead of him - you can see the clouds to the north streaming off into the yonder distance. Second, he is also about to move over cooler sea surface waters of around 26 deg C, with only the upper 25-50m of water at that temperature. And third, the air to his north and west is dry. </span></p><p></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia; font-size: 16px;">His outer bands are already over Bermuda - mostly just cloud and rain - and tomorrow will be a bit breezy, but it should be quite nice by the weekend. Perfect for golf and sailing if you are in Bermuda, but maybe not advisable as 'fun activities' in Maine and Newfoundland this weekend... h</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia; font-size: 16px;">e's currently at 28.0N, 67.7W heading N at 9mph...</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9-yRfT9D_nivccb7-Cc0Ed2Mpdr-cobhi2TBLwaGRPCLQ3KGFTGouFAugL2ABC9xxa9daEWXjTAO6fnP9WFch_w_ZLxnA2a0cwYx9AF8pzs4ObN11PpG6rzCqFTRU-mXAZ_JjmVnIfn8JRg4bUI6JrwMNUndbZwusHAnnQGOBchUR_nDbQDve/s897/031129_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind_Lee.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="736" data-original-width="897" height="526" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9-yRfT9D_nivccb7-Cc0Ed2Mpdr-cobhi2TBLwaGRPCLQ3KGFTGouFAugL2ABC9xxa9daEWXjTAO6fnP9WFch_w_ZLxnA2a0cwYx9AF8pzs4ObN11PpG6rzCqFTRU-mXAZ_JjmVnIfn8JRg4bUI6JrwMNUndbZwusHAnnQGOBchUR_nDbQDve/w640-h526/031129_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind_Lee.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia; font-size: 16px;">He should be a Tropical Storm by the time he gets to Canada - but a strong storm so get ready up there! There is a front moving across the eastern US which will meet with Lee. The double impact of this is that (a) it is why he will curve to the east and (b) it will add some energy, so although he may not have too much rainy and thundery weather by Saturday evening, he will be a blustery. </span><p></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia; font-size: 16px;">I'll keep an eye on Lee in case he does anything funny in which case I'll pop back, but the NHC forecast seems about right. For those who are in the path, remember to listen to your emergency managers!</span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia; font-size: 16px;">Now, there is another hurricane out there... Hurricane Margot. She's at 35.2N, 40.5W heading N at an even slower 7 mph. Winds are 85mph which makes her a cat 1 storm (cat 1 range: 74-95mph), central pressure is 972mb. However, she is a bit confused and going round in circles...</span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia; font-size: 16px;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjE5vklRjTO8UmQds_4xYxl2Ma9KBAJpTh6x3SSHO5QSaaXxdLUQD08FUFYdY9AmkFkP9bdsvXHXh5HN330XeEsYd-SJJYoc0Vo3yD0hsac0tJzo5BOPMH0HfrY3o-Q2h-wxJgsGrnBbNqPwDp_I24WgZNneYFz82Gt-oLrnKJkBhb4P_hgtOXs/s897/_Margot.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="736" data-original-width="897" height="526" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjE5vklRjTO8UmQds_4xYxl2Ma9KBAJpTh6x3SSHO5QSaaXxdLUQD08FUFYdY9AmkFkP9bdsvXHXh5HN330XeEsYd-SJJYoc0Vo3yD0hsac0tJzo5BOPMH0HfrY3o-Q2h-wxJgsGrnBbNqPwDp_I24WgZNneYFz82Gt-oLrnKJkBhb4P_hgtOXs/w640-h526/_Margot.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">So, of course, I won't be saying too much more about her either.</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia;">Be careful and Toodle pip for now! </span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">J. </span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/</span></p><div class="post-body entry-content" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px 0px 0.75em; text-align: left;"><p style="line-height: 20.8px; margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Twitter (now a 'placeholder letter') @JyovianStorm</span></p></div><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia; font-size: 16px;">--------------------------------------</span></p><div class="post-body entry-content" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px 0px 0.75em;"><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">DISCLAIMER:</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.</span></p></div>Jyohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13799343640305859521noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34244528.post-54192732509241553122023-08-29T22:22:00.002-04:002023-08-29T22:22:36.267-04:00Hurricanes Franklin and Idalia: August 29, Update A<p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia;"><span style="background-color: white;">Busy day today all over the place! Well, maybe not in Florida, but everywhere else I'm sure. ;-) Ok ok, I know you have been very busy over yonder, preparing today, boarding up, and getting supplies so you are well stocked up (or have evacuated)... b</span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia;">ut hands up, who's also been doing this...</span></p><p><span style="color: #333333;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-family: georgia; text-align: center;"><span style="color: #333333;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi-GTMmNir8qklBEGB3p76VY773C1MVDVR_hJAkg6Lo4n9RngayRomPQmepFvUQ9LpZaU5zNdt4m_2uI4dZYSRT85cfHDOC8AkXAno1_prrnGKOFdqBToXifjUT7wailVg-ZwzbvOrm_odTUIbnDFJd8idtBVSEsPFSaUEuubLSbp8y1a-_Kzso/s1027/69639385_3398880096819887_4981791484991766528_n.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1023" data-original-width="1027" height="399" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi-GTMmNir8qklBEGB3p76VY773C1MVDVR_hJAkg6Lo4n9RngayRomPQmepFvUQ9LpZaU5zNdt4m_2uI4dZYSRT85cfHDOC8AkXAno1_prrnGKOFdqBToXifjUT7wailVg-ZwzbvOrm_odTUIbnDFJd8idtBVSEsPFSaUEuubLSbp8y1a-_Kzso/w400-h399/69639385_3398880096819887_4981791484991766528_n.jpg" width="400" /></a></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-family: georgia; text-align: center;"><span style="color: #333333;">(Image Credit: unknown from the internet, but The Simpsons are great!)</span></div><p style="font-family: georgia;"><span style="color: #333333;"><b>Hurricane Idalia </b></span></p><p style="font-family: georgia;"><span style="color: #333333;">She is currently at 27.4N, 84.6 W heading N at a very fast 18mph. She is on track to make landfall in the Florida Big Bend area tomorrow morning at around 8 or 9am.</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-family: georgia; text-align: center;"><span style="color: #333333;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjU6YyBpMcDdNMe9aJ9wr3SMCJsWi3PffCsvwo_swtA8qWcBX2nj_ees8X8OgVY6ze3p74wDESEGYhrp7QZVnE2TPTPILgHCdbmFrgHe8UEwho4tPGmTirKThFG_U5Qz1szzJY2yfhiwtLqim4Gn8UjbbZ1NVwuH8sT_gYBD0I9qbctAUulmf5v/s897/213341_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="736" data-original-width="897" height="526" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjU6YyBpMcDdNMe9aJ9wr3SMCJsWi3PffCsvwo_swtA8qWcBX2nj_ees8X8OgVY6ze3p74wDESEGYhrp7QZVnE2TPTPILgHCdbmFrgHe8UEwho4tPGmTirKThFG_U5Qz1szzJY2yfhiwtLqim4Gn8UjbbZ1NVwuH8sT_gYBD0I9qbctAUulmf5v/w640-h526/213341_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png" width="640" /></a></span></div><p style="font-family: georgia;"><span style="color: #333333;">She is tracking slightly west of the official center but still towards Apalachee Bay (luckily not a very populated area, except by wildlife) and within that cone. Although the track shows that she will cross S. Carolina and southern N. Carolina and enter the Atlantic, that far end is because I think the models are picking up Franklin... however, as Franklin will be moving northwards, I think that track may straighten out a bit so she may be over N. Carolina a little more than is currently shown - she may cross some of the outer banks before heading into the Atlantic. </span></p><p style="font-family: georgia;"><span style="color: #333333;">For those of you on the east side of the storm in Florida, you will experience storm surge as I mentioned yesterday - and there's a SuperMoon tomorrow, which means that your normal High Tide will be higher than normal as well! ever wondered how you can find out the storm surge in your area? Well, today's your lucky day... </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="color: #333333;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><Technical Alert!> </span><span style="font-family: georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;"><u>How to look up Storm Surge</u>: Go to NOAA's website, <a href="https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/">tidesandcurrents</a> (</span><span style="font-family: georgia, serif;">https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/).</span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-family: georgia; font-size: 16px;"><span style="color: #333333;"><span style="font-family: georgia, serif;"><br /></span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-family: georgia; font-size: 16px;"><span style="color: #333333;"><span style="font-family: georgia, serif;">If you click on this link, you will see an ugly cartoonish bad-suntan coloured map of the US (in shades of orange to represent the land - which, with the heat waves of recent times may just be the colour of land anyway these days!). Click on the state that you are interested in e.g. Florida. This will show you a much nicer colour map with a bunch of pins. These are the general locations of the stations monitoring the water levels along the coast. </span><span style="font-family: georgia, serif;">You can either locate the nearest station by entering the area you are interested in, or click on the station nearest to the location of interest, which will zoom into the map. So by clicking on the icon over Tampa Bay (which has the number 17), the stations along the south west coast of Florida come into focus. </span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-family: georgia; font-size: 16px;"><span style="color: #333333;"><span style="font-family: georgia, serif;"><br /></span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-family: georgia; font-size: 16px;"><span style="color: #333333;"><span style="font-family: georgia, serif;">Now clicking on the specific station of interest, and in the lower left is a button that says 'plot'. Click that on and it will show you a plot of the expected water level (in red) and the actual measured water level (in blue). </span><span style="font-family: georgia, serif;">Just watch out though (if you are on a Mac especially) because the map is not static so you can accidentally scroll around and end up in the middle of the Atlantic, and then will have to zoom out until the map you want re-appears and then zoom back in.</span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-family: georgia; font-size: 16px;"><span style="color: #333333;"><span style="font-family: georgia, serif;"><br /></span></span></div><div class="separator" style="background-color: white; clear: both; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-family: georgia, serif;">Here is the plot from Ft. Myers for example:</span></div><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5AyZzOlGevVJlLIiXP3XiC0to0o_oWPZKqDnst2xTiC_178bPbsET0pcbIghFyyCsi5kPa5G4tldYl8v_dl7yeWW-hGfkK-A8DAOE97NHwhq7ngwYY5_h4Rf2EX6EAv-IYVBmisXEnpfz1xzJUwMWQ3tJD3q2Etl6-OCLfV08BSXA-cqYD6Hb/s1546/Screenshot%202023-08-29%20at%206.10.35%20PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1040" data-original-width="1546" height="430" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5AyZzOlGevVJlLIiXP3XiC0to0o_oWPZKqDnst2xTiC_178bPbsET0pcbIghFyyCsi5kPa5G4tldYl8v_dl7yeWW-hGfkK-A8DAOE97NHwhq7ngwYY5_h4Rf2EX6EAv-IYVBmisXEnpfz1xzJUwMWQ3tJD3q2Etl6-OCLfV08BSXA-cqYD6Hb/w640-h430/Screenshot%202023-08-29%20at%206.10.35%20PM.png" width="640" /></a></span></div><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia;"><p>You can see that the actual water level in red has been higher than the predicted levels since yesterday and that gap is widening as the storm is passing by offshore. <span style="background-color: white; font-family: georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;">By scrolling your mouse over the plot, the numbers appear showing the actual values (and then you have to do some complicated maths to get to the difference between the two). In this case, y</span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;">ou can see that the </span>water levels currently about 1.5-2 ft above normal. </p></span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia;"><p>Moving a little father up the coast to St. Petersburg, the water level is also about 2ft above normal</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNBO2RRosHaF63FJvirqT-B7znWgvV3ZNXkASbeS9Z0iam4BtqdfVx44BP4gzRtesAFLFh57YIW0w5eu298CqfPbPfivACVdnQDKZWv-QzyA9QEOjgS6FU8pylvJ5o5pWb1Fbm_Y99fux8PR4c7V7VwUt27Jo4ILEIGMFnyFJtonYc0ja_L0U1/s1532/Screenshot%202023-08-29%20at%206.52.48%20PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1038" data-original-width="1532" height="434" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNBO2RRosHaF63FJvirqT-B7znWgvV3ZNXkASbeS9Z0iam4BtqdfVx44BP4gzRtesAFLFh57YIW0w5eu298CqfPbPfivACVdnQDKZWv-QzyA9QEOjgS6FU8pylvJ5o5pWb1Fbm_Y99fux8PR4c7V7VwUt27Jo4ILEIGMFnyFJtonYc0ja_L0U1/w640-h434/Screenshot%202023-08-29%20at%206.52.48%20PM.png" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;">If you want to see the corresponding winds, air pressure and other handy-dandy data, you can scroll down. So here, for example, is the pressure field which is decreasing as the storm gets closer.</span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia;"><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi_XdAXiOAW3vjtztGQHUYZO9G4_R5Zzq3kR3p740CQ3EnWDjMLqQ6bFm8zVCRSc1amfCx9Pu7xL5wZTzvgjbt_HNnJrZTgn6p6ktf8laR6riV2PkyE9C7aF8ylffqGid8qFxyBO5oVd69yR2rhetI_JQGjsZiIh6tz241pEcLvmyhjZGJOsGLy/s1524/Screenshot%202023-08-29%20at%206.46.20%20PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1038" data-original-width="1524" height="436" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi_XdAXiOAW3vjtztGQHUYZO9G4_R5Zzq3kR3p740CQ3EnWDjMLqQ6bFm8zVCRSc1amfCx9Pu7xL5wZTzvgjbt_HNnJrZTgn6p6ktf8laR6riV2PkyE9C7aF8ylffqGid8qFxyBO5oVd69yR2rhetI_JQGjsZiIh6tz241pEcLvmyhjZGJOsGLy/w640-h436/Screenshot%202023-08-29%20at%206.46.20%20PM.png" width="640" /></a></div>And the winds: </span><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhn8ePSbRQn9MsKkB1nZSy3CpCiy-_L3hTx8yTqc2xA7EbsSNItOuzy7OWCun49AFoliaAG2HUbasBU3nq-DRIoPMVX3iVVuiy2GFQa5O_I1m7wLfZrH2gHlqbULGT1IbjjyRYt4j6SA1tGYQieQTcgHAv_ycNrTT5twuJtWfCh-vkosCnvvZnG/s1542/Screenshot%202023-08-29%20at%206.47.33%20PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1028" data-original-width="1542" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhn8ePSbRQn9MsKkB1nZSy3CpCiy-_L3hTx8yTqc2xA7EbsSNItOuzy7OWCun49AFoliaAG2HUbasBU3nq-DRIoPMVX3iVVuiy2GFQa5O_I1m7wLfZrH2gHlqbULGT1IbjjyRYt4j6SA1tGYQieQTcgHAv_ycNrTT5twuJtWfCh-vkosCnvvZnG/w640-h426/Screenshot%202023-08-29%20at%206.47.33%20PM.png" width="640" /></a></div><span style="font-family: georgia;">which are given in knots (1 knot = 1.15 mph) which means the winds here are approaching 20mph. <br /><span style="background-color: white;"><End Technical Alert!> </span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;">She is definitely a hurricane. In addition to having strong circulation at all levels of the troposphere, she has a good looking eye now:</span></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhXx1gV-JDkbIr5DSqkl3AcswoyMk_bR_qQ7UcrrmJXH1aIN3SD3ORo2Zwp1u80sjgLTb3B6DBvTd9kGPvMDMm1pQc5RTIVY6RuyQwMHySvSzYNa0ab-oqSPFDxhrCt7U34PK0jdhXJkNXixtmvTVVo8BpVfqe1k5po5CGEONodOf2i-G5NSQJp/s1000/floater_floater_AL102023_band11_24fr_20230829-2154.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1000" data-original-width="1000" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhXx1gV-JDkbIr5DSqkl3AcswoyMk_bR_qQ7UcrrmJXH1aIN3SD3ORo2Zwp1u80sjgLTb3B6DBvTd9kGPvMDMm1pQc5RTIVY6RuyQwMHySvSzYNa0ab-oqSPFDxhrCt7U34PK0jdhXJkNXixtmvTVVo8BpVfqe1k5po5CGEONodOf2i-G5NSQJp/w640-h640/floater_floater_AL102023_band11_24fr_20230829-2154.gif" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia;">But clearly the rain bands are already over the peninsula and reaching Georgia. Winds are 110mph, central pressure 960mb, which makes her a strong cat 2 storm/borderline cat 3 (Cat 2 range: 96-110mph).</span></div><div><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia;">As for her intensity over the next few hours - there are glimmers that she may not grow into the very strong cat 3 (125mph is the forecast!) that is currently forecast (although she will definitely be a hurricane at landfall) because:</span></div><div><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia;">1. it does look like the wind shear is increasing in front of her so hopefully that will at least stop her from growing - and we can see that because the bands are streaming off to the northeast. </span></div><div><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia;">2. the dry air to her west is also inhibiting her a little - we can see that from the ragged looking outer bands to the west side and the drier part to the south.</span></div><div><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia;">3. she is now moving over water where only the upper 50m or so is warmer than 26 deg... although she is moving quickly, so she may not churn up as much cooler water as one would hope so this may not be as big of an effect. </span></div><div><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia;">Stay safe out there! Don't jump around in puddles after the storm has gone until you are sure there are no downed power lines. Good luck! </span></div><div><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia;"> </span></div><div><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia;"><b>Hurricane Franklin</b></span></div><div><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia;">Meanwhile, in the Atlantic, not too much has changed. Franklin is still a major cat 3 hurricane with winds of 125mph, central pressure 947 mb (cat 3 range: 111 - 129mph). He is at 31.9N, 69.4W, heading NE at 12mph: </span></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEijcjd3XzXvdhmmo22RyoDidD-jzma3JZ-4Idz7-TcqiEvKOk6HNnW1KD_6i6Ew2OIs2ofHd9ywb3nlRurCuLhvQ1SwLxzG66DhOcLDuxG3fgBGLJuJPG_ANZEtdYllqBV9FGrLbN-KWfzTCVkAoflzGWsk0p2cdkmqcLjLhg1vkSPYsEgWFc5t/s897/235837_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="736" data-original-width="897" height="526" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEijcjd3XzXvdhmmo22RyoDidD-jzma3JZ-4Idz7-TcqiEvKOk6HNnW1KD_6i6Ew2OIs2ofHd9ywb3nlRurCuLhvQ1SwLxzG66DhOcLDuxG3fgBGLJuJPG_ANZEtdYllqBV9FGrLbN-KWfzTCVkAoflzGWsk0p2cdkmqcLjLhg1vkSPYsEgWFc5t/w640-h526/235837_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia;">And my, what a big eye he has! You could fit 10 Bermuda's into that eye! </span></div><div><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjzvKoo3qX9vYrLq4ONR3gPcQHrnUqPO2Z2DJgt_KUKjuBp8Llc2wr2JJtVeW-QGdKH0sUxWYGBKHtIdn0kVD0i--lNJeEYoCXAgR4panv8-jhkk54JWBJil3mFuPWHMQgKJ9xW2p7VXKyArJw1I0a41ZGh90HIn9PhXf3fTGtwBnD6c1dDlzd6/s1000/floater_floater_AL082023_band11_24fr_20230829-2214.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1000" data-original-width="1000" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjzvKoo3qX9vYrLq4ONR3gPcQHrnUqPO2Z2DJgt_KUKjuBp8Llc2wr2JJtVeW-QGdKH0sUxWYGBKHtIdn0kVD0i--lNJeEYoCXAgR4panv8-jhkk54JWBJil3mFuPWHMQgKJ9xW2p7VXKyArJw1I0a41ZGh90HIn9PhXf3fTGtwBnD6c1dDlzd6/w640-h640/floater_floater_AL082023_band11_24fr_20230829-2214.gif" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia;">Although he looks huge, his convection isn't as bad as it could be and he is going to pass by Bermuda tomorrow with only the outer bands passing overhead. I do believe surf's up there - and along the US Eastern Seaboard!</span></div><div><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia;"><br /><span style="background-color: white;">That's all for today. I know there's another blobette out there (Tropical Depression 11) but I'm ignoring her for now.</span></span></div><div><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia;"><span style="background-color: white;">Toodle pip!</span></span></div><div><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia;"><span style="background-color: white;">J. </span></span><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia; font-size: 16px;">--------------------------------------</span></p><div class="post-body entry-content" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px 0px 0.75em;"><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">DISCLAIMER:</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.</span></p></div></div>Jyohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13799343640305859521noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34244528.post-80086233973939713032023-08-29T00:19:00.004-04:002023-08-29T00:19:19.759-04:00Hurricane Franklin and Tropical Storm Idalia: August 28, Update A<p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia;">I'll</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia;"> sum up some wrap-up thoughts from last week on the US west coast some other day. Today, it's </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia; font-size: 16px;">once more unto the breach dear friends, and over to the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico where the game's afoot. </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia;">Are your supplies ready? Water? Candles? Ice Cream? Wine?</span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia; font-size: 16px;"><b>Tropical Storm Idalia</b></span></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia;"><span style="background-color: white;">She is getting stronger as I'm sure everyone in Florida and the southeastern US are already aware... </span></span></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhnH8u74PyykKaazAhw-XbUuenYl75_vD1Snllyzhm-vDm7DuMxfoTEJ-qPsWTXra965eKIHmhSuArWXPPsSlz4-HPnhZVTvV-bVkz4GWYax4o8t_WLsIl2Zgr6bwxCznvBv3Z_QBm8IuynEE1kLWc8nPreNPm_vITqwdtGwDNEYZDu6_Q_mfQA/s897/213151_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind_Idalia.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="736" data-original-width="897" height="526" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhnH8u74PyykKaazAhw-XbUuenYl75_vD1Snllyzhm-vDm7DuMxfoTEJ-qPsWTXra965eKIHmhSuArWXPPsSlz4-HPnhZVTvV-bVkz4GWYax4o8t_WLsIl2Zgr6bwxCznvBv3Z_QBm8IuynEE1kLWc8nPreNPm_vITqwdtGwDNEYZDu6_Q_mfQA/w640-h526/213151_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind_Idalia.png" width="640" /></a></span></div><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia;"><br /><span style="background-color: white;">She's currently at 22.0N, 85.0W, heading N at a stately 8 mph. Her track is bringing her into Florida, but the center could be anywhere in that cone so don't focus on the center of it. We are still over 1.5 days away and that could shift slightly.</span></span><p></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia;"><span style="background-color: white;">One of the big issues is going to be storm surge along that coast of Florida and the amount of surge depends on the track, but also on a number of other things.</span></span></p><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;"><Science Alert!> <u>Storm surge</u> is water rising along the coastline as a storm approaches and makes landfall. How high the storm surge is depends on a number of factors: </div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;"><br /></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;">1. <u style="background-color: transparent;">Location at Landfall.</u> Storms are low pressure systems, so in the northern hemisphere they rotate in an anticlockwise direction. This means generally water will be pushed onshore on the right side of the eye (eastern or southern side depending on if the coast runs E-W or N-S) side of the eye, and will be pushed off shore on the left side (western or northern side depending on coast orientation). In this case, if Idalia makes landfall just to the north of Tampa Bay (for example), she will push water up into the bay and storm surge will be higher. </div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;"><u><br /></u></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;">2. <u>Intensity.</u> Storms are low pressure systems, which means that there is low atmospheric pressure in the middle. But obviously we don't have a low pressure "hole" between the air and the ocean. Instead the water 'rises' up to fill the 'gap' which is created by the atmosphere's low pressure. So, the stronger the storm is, the lower the central pressure, the greater the 'gap' for the water to rise to 'fill' and therefore the higher the storm surge. </div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;"><br /></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;">3. <u>Speed of the storm</u>. If a storm is moving quickly, then there is simply less time for water to get pushed onshore before the storm has swung by. Storm surge is greater for slower storms. </div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;"><br /></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;">4. <u>Angle of storm approach to land.</u> Depending on if a storm is approaching land directly or at an angle can affect the amount of storm surge because of the direction of the winds. Storms that are heading directly onto shore result in greater storm surge than those that are approaching it from an angle - skirting along the coastline. </div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;"><br /></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;">5. <u>Shape of coastline (bays etc).</u> Water can get piled into bays and upstream in estuaries of course. </div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;"><br /></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;">6. <u>The depth of the seafloor</u> just off the coast is important. For areas with a shallow seafloor, more water piles up compared to areas where the seafloor is deep just off the coast. </div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;"><End Science Alert!></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;"><br /></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;">For those who need a reminder, I use NOAA's <a href="https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/" style="color: #0066cc; font-family: georgia, serif; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">tidesandcurrents</a><span style="font-family: georgia, serif;"> website. For those who haven't seen this before, I'll cover how to find out what you need to know in tomorrow's post. </span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-family: georgia, serif;">(</span><span style="font-family: georgia, serif;">https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/) </span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;"><br /></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;">Idalia is currently a Tropical Storm with winds of 70mph, central pressure 983mb, which makes her a very strong Tropical Storm (TS range: 39 - 73mph)... actually, I think she is already a hurricane because her circulation (vorticity) is already present throughout the troposphere. <span style="font-family: georgia;">She just clipped Cuba but that wasn't enough to inhibit her development: </span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg23p-LtgrWBcZSfcHbNw4T8IVTn8FQBQhtwPm2pvuFn1IHuh-7y9F_OlKDB0rkTnwTBVDQ1rmKxzSd0nR4S_pUjBzJP2QOxKSL4YJvZ23x6AlWwfSe04i4n7nbXtDYxjyFWsAwzRR7LOg9lN5RqsiLHfNoDZGFujNCmFrTIAWmNHZ5f9xggqO5/s1000/floater_floater_AL102023_band11_24fr_20230828-2350.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1000" data-original-width="1000" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg23p-LtgrWBcZSfcHbNw4T8IVTn8FQBQhtwPm2pvuFn1IHuh-7y9F_OlKDB0rkTnwTBVDQ1rmKxzSd0nR4S_pUjBzJP2QOxKSL4YJvZ23x6AlWwfSe04i4n7nbXtDYxjyFWsAwzRR7LOg9lN5RqsiLHfNoDZGFujNCmFrTIAWmNHZ5f9xggqO5/w400-h400/floater_floater_AL102023_band11_24fr_20230828-2350.gif" width="400" /></a></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;"><br /></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">She looks like she has a lot of convection - that's because she is moving over a part of the ocean which is very warm, with sea surface temperatures over 30 deg C. But not only is the surface hot, the upper 125 meters of ocean is warmer than 26 deg C - so anything she is churning up is definitley feeding her! Her blossoming like this in this part of the world is not unusual though, because she is going over the Loop Current System... yes, squeezing in another <Science Alert!>. :-) </div></div><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif;"><Science and Forecasting Alert!> </span><u>The Loop Current (System)</u>. The Loop Current is part of an ocean current system that flows from the Caribbean into the Gulf of Mexico through the Yucatan Strait, and then out of the Gulf of Mexico through the Straits of Florida, and up the east coast of the US. How far it extends into the Gulf of Mexico varies from year to year and month to month. As this current flows around Florida, it changes name to become the Florida Current. Then as it flows up the east coast, it changes name again and is known as the Gulf Stream. It leaves the US east coast around North Carolina and flows across the north Atlantic to the UK. Why is this current system important for tropical storms? This current system is well known because it has the deepest warm waters, and is very fast flowing - but the current also has offspring that can also have deep warm waters (all these offspring are called Eddy by the way). The deep warm waters mean that tropical storms that pass over any part of this current system or over any warm water Eddies have a jolly good (British understatement) chance of becoming stronger. </p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;">So, how can you see where these areas are? One of the places I look is buried within the vast network of websites that NOAA has. In particular, the Office of Satellite and Product Operations has a site called Satellite Heat Content Suite (I know, such a catchy name - made for a song lyric I'm sure! ;-)). I use the North Atlantic page: </p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;"><a href="https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/ohc_natl.html">https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/ohc_natl.html</a></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;">If you click on this, you will see all sorts of maps. The two most useful for our purposes is the one on the top left - Sea Surface Temperature - which looks like this today: </p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgn5CtnhDd9w6_LWUWIH1D2HiRejhUQIgtBuyl65c6kGUCGWu4tQGyKIZ3t1sL5jnQDP7tcD6_rllAKWBqgFnHS8WEvBHZtCvODz7zFcmqIZE5FsILuuGTYtbKKqk6GWTb8XlY0PsyPK-LjUc7apIn9LWuY0gwqgxHz7ORQP9TQmzBwsf1UX_6X/s824/sst_naQG3_ddc_Idalia.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="617" data-original-width="824" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgn5CtnhDd9w6_LWUWIH1D2HiRejhUQIgtBuyl65c6kGUCGWu4tQGyKIZ3t1sL5jnQDP7tcD6_rllAKWBqgFnHS8WEvBHZtCvODz7zFcmqIZE5FsILuuGTYtbKKqk6GWTb8XlY0PsyPK-LjUc7apIn9LWuY0gwqgxHz7ORQP9TQmzBwsf1UX_6X/w640-h480/sst_naQG3_ddc_Idalia.gif" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="background-color: white; clear: both; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px; text-align: center;"><br /></div><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;"></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;">You can see that the waters where Idalia is are the darkest of dark reds - over 30 deg C. The other most useful map (more so than the sea surface temperatures actually) is the depth of the 26 deg C Isotherm - third one down in the right column and that looks like this today:</p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNDYhs5TrfaPLnY4GwajuNqK56Qe5A-CH7L6R_5QSyrS1hxfmH7W7KsiAUKcGIiSfxOLkuL2GV-TL7x82uG3CiT25yrVaNJTI293kRFhh62fRe38LlN5AuAiJiF3Km0GhxWm9AMTe15OLADYDArJtk_TRBDcXRa-Esavi-QSi_PXrqABw2nNz-/s824/h26_naQG3_ddc-Idalia.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="617" data-original-width="824" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNDYhs5TrfaPLnY4GwajuNqK56Qe5A-CH7L6R_5QSyrS1hxfmH7W7KsiAUKcGIiSfxOLkuL2GV-TL7x82uG3CiT25yrVaNJTI293kRFhh62fRe38LlN5AuAiJiF3Km0GhxWm9AMTe15OLADYDArJtk_TRBDcXRa-Esavi-QSi_PXrqABw2nNz-/w640-h480/h26_naQG3_ddc-Idalia.gif" width="640" /></a></div><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;">From this, we can see that Idalia has been passing over that area of yellow/green just north of the western tip of Cuba - this is where the upper 125m of water is warmer than 26 deg C. No wonder she picked up some convection. </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;"><End Science and Forecasting Alert></span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;">The current forecast is for a major hurricane at landfall on Wednesday. A major hurricane is a cat 3 or higher storm (111mph winds or higher). At the moment, I don't see anything that will inhibit her from growing in the next few hours - the water is toasty, and there isn't much wind shear around. There is a bit of dry air to her northwest, over the Gulf, but I'm not sure it's close enough to combat that convection. However, the 26 deg C depth does get shallower as she moves northwards, so there is a possibility that will help to keep her growth in check - but to decrease her intensity requires strong wind shear as well, so that's what I will look for tomorrow. </span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia; font-size: 16px;"><b>Hurricane Franklin</b></span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;">Just a quick note on Franklin, who is in the Atlantic at 29.4N, 71.0W, heading N at 9mph. He is already a major cat 4 hurricane with winds of 150mph, central pressure of 926 mb (Cat 4 range: 130-156mph), but is going to avoid Bermuda and stay away from the eastern seaboard as well: </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMnZGaChEL98rTB35161EmpdKZNSHq8MN7Oa-NrLO0l5JVNz7tKGLe1gRaUevTRU3kabvj5xAUNiLrW_JEZ84kO65DLVpWR4iYwFIHSisgfB6h-AK0K3KaJKMuBHOI0hGKC7uQRV7omTa2dF5JtBVIzaqlCtQxRCcHaaXzP0EM-pp3cgZQBkD6/s897/023723_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="736" data-original-width="897" height="329" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMnZGaChEL98rTB35161EmpdKZNSHq8MN7Oa-NrLO0l5JVNz7tKGLe1gRaUevTRU3kabvj5xAUNiLrW_JEZ84kO65DLVpWR4iYwFIHSisgfB6h-AK0K3KaJKMuBHOI0hGKC7uQRV7omTa2dF5JtBVIzaqlCtQxRCcHaaXzP0EM-pp3cgZQBkD6/w400-h329/023723_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;">He's a good looking chap (what else would you expect with a storm that strong?), but not a big fella... </span><p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigigU4yIA8bJ1XQXfiifG-2v35A5qzrVR2Qvh2WAHperDeXh7nQu1TEVZqZgbEiRcFrdgXYvXIwLG0sP34EMu50wWJClRRooZN4zYSYSDfBbVuYbuTCCuh6pPYWNAsW9VDaoZPVtEoYyr4zUHRHUWcdzTL1mx3zTa61qNZcJ2t7i2gG4Gv7DzP/s1000/floater_floater_AL082023_band11_24fr_20230829-0012.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1000" data-original-width="1000" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigigU4yIA8bJ1XQXfiifG-2v35A5qzrVR2Qvh2WAHperDeXh7nQu1TEVZqZgbEiRcFrdgXYvXIwLG0sP34EMu50wWJClRRooZN4zYSYSDfBbVuYbuTCCuh6pPYWNAsW9VDaoZPVtEoYyr4zUHRHUWcdzTL1mx3zTa61qNZcJ2t7i2gG4Gv7DzP/w400-h400/floater_floater_AL082023_band11_24fr_20230829-0012.gif" width="400" /></a></div><br /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;">Bermuda will get some rain, a bit of a breeze, maybe not a golfing day on Wednesday, but hopefully nothing too bad. </span><p></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">For those in Florida - get ready and listen to your emergency managers - they know the area the best. If you are in an area that floods easily (yes, I know we are talking about Flat Florida - hard not to get some flooding!), then please evacuate if you are told to. </span></span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;">Until tomorrow!</span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;">Toodle pip,</span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;">J.</span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia; font-size: 16px;">--------------------------------------</span></p><div class="post-body entry-content" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px 0px 0.75em;"><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">DISCLAIMER:</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.</span></p></div>Jyohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13799343640305859521noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34244528.post-86321352202402883792023-08-19T21:30:00.004-04:002023-08-19T21:38:10.816-04:00Hurricane Hilary (Pacific) and TD 6 (Atlantic): August 19, Update A<p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia;"><span style="background-color: white;">As I sit here, sipping my tea, in the skies overhead there are clouds circling and a helicopter circling. One of these is normal for LA. :-)</span></span></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia;"><span style="background-color: white;">Hurricane Hilary is at 24.4N, 114.2W, heading NNW at a fast 17mph! They have moved the track forward in time, so if you were expecting her to pass by on Monday, that was yesterday's plan. Now her center will clip Baja tonight... </span></span></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgO_F3F8LOstvbqy8ssi53PgsCpBprABPMsPpSH0Tj8cH4Mqgj_p2wb3ze1YEHdAqgEVbIEredr1wpR2Y8NBymqTewwV0oPQU8FiqV85Q0nJ0ypLsZYBhCHgbLEKrhenp51gBq3oRa1QzRzVn1gYv575qCMnMAQMCmmISKn-0osli2k5PLL3XhC/s897/235200_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="736" data-original-width="897" height="329" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgO_F3F8LOstvbqy8ssi53PgsCpBprABPMsPpSH0Tj8cH4Mqgj_p2wb3ze1YEHdAqgEVbIEredr1wpR2Y8NBymqTewwV0oPQU8FiqV85Q0nJ0ypLsZYBhCHgbLEKrhenp51gBq3oRa1QzRzVn1gYv575qCMnMAQMCmmISKn-0osli2k5PLL3XhC/w400-h329/235200_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png" width="400" /></a></span></div><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia;"><br /><span style="background-color: white;">Make landfall tomorrow afternoon (Sunday, 12pm = noon), and have zoomed by the LA region by midnight. This doesn't mean that the effects of the storm will be over by midnight on Sunday - those I expect will continue into Monday (you will see why below). </span></span><p></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia;"><span style="background-color: white;">She's decreased in intensity as we expected and is now a weak-mid level cat 2 storm with winds of 100mph (cat 2 range: 96-110mph), on target to hopefully be a weak cat 2 or strong cat 1 as she clips Baja. Her convection (and circulation) has really decreased quite a lot:</span></span></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgj8bRmn9MnumoWKrDeROAfwUKt5v2HA6f4lr5WvdTJuKgH3GLDqrKPlurzIQChedWD5Jtxb93ke9sYLL8-4LvYf98-9VxvfuNvFyz28PHMRKZN-U2XM86Q23cMT-D1Zqk64T5RaY3F0OAlCWGu4Ntk2fdLti6BF8O0GlcWe8zAihTtGLvUgYj9/s1000/floater_floater_EP092023_band11_24fr_20230819-2010.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1000" data-original-width="1000" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgj8bRmn9MnumoWKrDeROAfwUKt5v2HA6f4lr5WvdTJuKgH3GLDqrKPlurzIQChedWD5Jtxb93ke9sYLL8-4LvYf98-9VxvfuNvFyz28PHMRKZN-U2XM86Q23cMT-D1Zqk64T5RaY3F0OAlCWGu4Ntk2fdLti6BF8O0GlcWe8zAihTtGLvUgYj9/w400-h400/floater_floater_EP092023_band11_24fr_20230819-2010.gif" width="400" /></a></span></div><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></span><p></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia;"><span style="background-color: white;">And if you look at the track and where the main convection is - you will see that it's mostly on the east side and south of the storm. This means that the bulk of the rainy sort of weather will be inland California - San Bernardino etc. - if it continues to have heavy convection by the time it reaches that far north.</span></span></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia;"><span style="background-color: white;">But even as the center passes by, the storm isn't over</span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia;"> because you can see that there is some heavy convection on the southern side of the storm as well - and if that persists, there will be also be a lot more 'weather' in the wake of the eye.</span></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia;"><span style="background-color: white;">Although she hasn't even got half way up the Baja peninsula, because of wind shear, the clouds (some with rain) are already streaming over Southern California and north - even over Nevada, Oregon, Idaho, with the very outer edge reaching Canada:</span></span></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhveatNk-v1FCDEbid3943OzfZsD8SKxPrUkWJfd9G6jq9qOI8cHZLy_uJBNBJzGSSC8WJv4kz2oqL9TXBkRVpUsey46kZD-fKU4DcfnRz0GAbP0VbiUZ703yeMFtmMa5PGqj09siwjuPTsZo3Ngq_RRrYjtmmImj5UI52N8kOXXp_7lz0y0W4W/s1200/G18_sector_pnw_band11_24fr_20230819-2118.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1200" data-original-width="1200" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhveatNk-v1FCDEbid3943OzfZsD8SKxPrUkWJfd9G6jq9qOI8cHZLy_uJBNBJzGSSC8WJv4kz2oqL9TXBkRVpUsey46kZD-fKU4DcfnRz0GAbP0VbiUZ703yeMFtmMa5PGqj09siwjuPTsZo3Ngq_RRrYjtmmImj5UI52N8kOXXp_7lz0y0W4W/w400-h400/G18_sector_pnw_band11_24fr_20230819-2118.gif" width="400" /></a></span></div><p></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia;">That's quite a lot of rain - but I suspect it is needed. </span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia;">I was asked how I knew yesterday that the storm was weakening, even though the plane was flying to gather more data:</span></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia;"><span style="background-color: white;">1. The cloud tops in the infrared satellite imagery were getting warmer (less of the deeper clouds indicated by the red areas compared to the day before).</span></span></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia;"><span style="background-color: white;">2. I knew she was heading into an area with dry air to her north and west (as seen in the water vapour imagery - she was less 'circular' and a bit more ragged on her western side).</span></span></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia;"><span style="background-color: white;">3. She was moving north and over cooler water - not just the sea surface, but the depth of water that was warmer than 26 deg C had also almost vanished, so anything she churned up to gain energy wasn't going to be enough to sustain her.</span></span></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia;"><span style="background-color: white;">4. The wind shear had picked up - and we see that today as well because the clouds are streaming off to the north.</span></span></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia;"><span style="background-color: white;">The one reason I thought she may take a while to get off that cat 3/4 ledge is because her circulation (vorticity - science!) was still strong throughout the troposphere (science!), which means she had still got some oomph (technical term ;-)) to her. </span></span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia; font-size: 16px;">And that brings me to a <Science Alert!>. Woohoo! :-)</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; line-height: 20.8px; widows: 1;"><Science Alert!</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; line-height: 20.8px; widows: 1;">> </span><u style="background-color: white; color: #333333; line-height: 20.8px; widows: 1;">The troposphere</u><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; line-height: 20.8px; widows: 1;">. Our atmosphere is divided into layers – like a delicious trifle or seven-layer dip or lasagna (depending on what country you are from). In each layer the air temperature either increases with height or decreases with height. The troposphere is one of these layers. It is the lowest section of our atmosphere and extends up from the earth (ground zero if you like) to about 15-16km in the equatorial regions, and to about 8km in the polar regions of the planet. This is the layer of the atmosphere we live in, this is the layer we breathe. All our 'weather' essentially occurs in the troposphere. The troposphere is defined by decreasing air temperature with increasing height. You would know this if you climbed a mountain. Or the easier option, of course, is to just look at pictures of mountains and see the snow at the top (known as the ‘Flat Florida Option’).</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; line-height: 20.8px; widows: 1;"> ;-)</span><span style="background-color: white; line-height: 20.8px; widows: 1;"><span style="color: #333333;"> So, looking at the infrared imagery, it measures the tops of the cloud temperatures and so colder they are, the stronger the storm. </span></span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; line-height: 20.8px; widows: 1;">The top of the troposphere is called the tropopause. Strong tropical storms have clouds that reach as high as the tropopause - and in a few very strong cases, they can extend even higher into the next layer up - into t</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; line-height: 20.8px; widows: 1;">he stratosphere, which is the layer of the atmosphere above the troposphere. The stratosphere is defined by air temperature increasing with height. The ozone hole is in the stratosphere. The top of the stratosphere is around 50km height and is marked by the stratopause. And the layer above that is mesosphere, where air temperature decreases with height again... and so we go on until we get to space...<End Science Alert!></span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; line-height: 20.8px; widows: 1;">Some last minute notes:</span></span></p><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; line-height: 20.8px; widows: 1;">- Please do heed your local emergency managers. <br /></span></span><span style="font-family: georgia;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; line-height: 20.8px; widows: 1;">- If you get a lot of rain and wind, and go out after it has passed, be very wary of downed power lines in water. </span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; line-height: 20.8px; widows: 1;">- If you are in a flood zone, evacuate. If you are not in a flood zone, then find a place to shelter away from windows if the wind picks up. Water is the biggest cause of loss of life in Tropical Storms, not the wind. </span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">- Don't go surfing... although I know that's a silly thing to say to the surfers I know! :-) </span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">- Be safe, enjoy the ice cream!</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">That's it for the Pacific... in the Atlantic, I see they have Tropical Depression Six... it looks like it will fizzle out in the Atlantic, so I'm not going to bother. I'll keep an eye on the crayon artwork that Mother Nature has produced over there though just in case... </span></div><p><span style="font-family: georgia;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQuyGkzpACUw-k8AVAd_axx71jBM9gVSrgpLRcyPu-wwd_cOjFVz_uBl49uB9TgXdDk1eTLCvVE4vH5bvnGS_xWsahOHHhpSUZsGo_pzr1A9rtMNLMGYWCk5dNA44JE10qyE8veYA5FE0lt8ZTL-OF6UqDwcTD2JYPDmUyI8Xfk4_4SjnVNvSj/s900/two_atl_0d0.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="601" data-original-width="900" height="268" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQuyGkzpACUw-k8AVAd_axx71jBM9gVSrgpLRcyPu-wwd_cOjFVz_uBl49uB9TgXdDk1eTLCvVE4vH5bvnGS_xWsahOHHhpSUZsGo_pzr1A9rtMNLMGYWCk5dNA44JE10qyE8veYA5FE0lt8ZTL-OF6UqDwcTD2JYPDmUyI8Xfk4_4SjnVNvSj/w400-h268/two_atl_0d0.png" width="400" /></a></span></div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; line-height: 20.8px; widows: 1;">Toodle pip until tomorrow!<br />J. </span></span><p></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">--------------------------------------</span></span></p><div class="post-body entry-content" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px 0px 0.75em;"><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">DISCLAIMER:</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.</span></p></div>Jyohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13799343640305859521noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34244528.post-29017797151849902492023-08-19T00:10:00.021-04:002023-08-19T00:23:40.953-04:00Hurricane Hilary: August 18, Update A<p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia;"><span style="background-color: white;">With Hurricane Hilary out there and still heading in this direction, I've started going through my hurricane checklist... two lychee martinis later, I'm now onto the ice cream which, may I say, is quite delicious. If you are a regular reader, you may be wondering where the wine went... me too! ;-)</span></span></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia;"><span style="background-color: white;">Before we get to what else is on my checklist, what's going on with Hilary? As expected, she intensified to a mid-size cat 4 earlier today (winds got to 145mph - cat 4 range is 130-156), and also as expected, she is slowly starting to weaken - she is a bit weaker now and is back to being a borderline cat 3/cat 4 storm with winds of 130mph, central pressure of 948mb. </span></span></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia;"><span style="background-color: white;">The outer bands are over Mexico:</span></span></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixpI4fI8RlAlp5GDOBcyhbNKrXxYefmWXNRu2Eo82P8xtJNL4N7s_j9ROh8XF2NyetTERGqS5A9O0gDDH2gp9cZsXciiur4mtVKV8lYVZ2uz2om8OBo5HhUUU02kJemqC6Fkk497yCDPefNQOrW56lOTxCDvcWp8shyrO7IWH51aJdTkojxhsw/s1000/floater_floater_EP092023_GEOCOLOR_24fr_20230818-2243.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1000" data-original-width="1000" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixpI4fI8RlAlp5GDOBcyhbNKrXxYefmWXNRu2Eo82P8xtJNL4N7s_j9ROh8XF2NyetTERGqS5A9O0gDDH2gp9cZsXciiur4mtVKV8lYVZ2uz2om8OBo5HhUUU02kJemqC6Fkk497yCDPefNQOrW56lOTxCDvcWp8shyrO7IWH51aJdTkojxhsw/w400-h400/floater_floater_EP092023_GEOCOLOR_24fr_20230818-2243.gif" width="400" /></a></span></div><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia;"><br /><span style="background-color: white;">But it's mostly rainfall at the moment, not too overly stormy (technical term ;-)). Generally, I see that the convection (rainfall) has decreased a bit and, more interestingly, the west side is not as robustly round as it was compared to the imagery from yesterday:</span></span><p></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEitGd1eSWUzMpLSFcAzYIj6cjfHdeOmaWjtY3i3d9J7V0xLkpRVY-_rVStSIqOPo_VlMLVlhPTUv4iw5aMQzRY7rrs5UO9hrUVBS_8WHUrceXSlLAXcCiEu7vKPmXVg0PyikBratQhWZdejlk2h5UwHrlap1Un3i9S0WxsswcRc9WbsqYqd-nUf/s1000/floater_floater_EP092023_band11_24fr_20230818-2242.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1000" data-original-width="1000" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEitGd1eSWUzMpLSFcAzYIj6cjfHdeOmaWjtY3i3d9J7V0xLkpRVY-_rVStSIqOPo_VlMLVlhPTUv4iw5aMQzRY7rrs5UO9hrUVBS_8WHUrceXSlLAXcCiEu7vKPmXVg0PyikBratQhWZdejlk2h5UwHrlap1Un3i9S0WxsswcRc9WbsqYqd-nUf/w400-h400/floater_floater_EP092023_band11_24fr_20230818-2242.gif" width="400" /></a></span></div><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia;"><br />This is because there is dry air to the north and west, but also because there is some wind shear - this is what I was hoping to see today. Long may that continue! So what do these satellite images mean and where do you find them? I think it's time for a double feature of a </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><Technical AND Forecasting Alert!>. Lucky you! </span></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"><Technical AND Forecasting Alert!> </span><u style="color: #333333;">Satellite Imagery</u><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333;">: I mainly use three sorts of satellite images: visible (geocolor), water vapour (spelled with a ‘u’ of course ;-), and infrared. To access these, go to this NOAA website: </span></span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia;"><a href="https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/index.php">https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/index.php</a></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia;">. Click on the tab marked 'Storms' at the top, and the storm you are interested in the drop down menu. That page should load up with the Geocolor satellite imagery - t</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia;">he visible imagery... it is what you would see if you took a colour photo. Best used during daylight hours of course! ;-) This is useful to see the full extent of the outer bands. </span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia;">The water vapour image is also pretty obvious…it shows how much water vapor there is in the atmosphere. To find these, on the same page, on the left panel, click the tab labeled 'Channel Loops' (usually with the name of the storm as well). Bands 8, 9, and 10 are the water vapour at different levels in the atmosphere (high, middle, and low). Living in LA, of course I like looking at the moving pictures... the animation loop or animated GIF in the list of options in each channel section. The yellow/orange/</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia;">brown areas are dry air (think of parched desert colours) and any other colour indicates some amount of water vapor, with green being a lot (think of well watered lawns... just like ours will be in a couple of days!). This is what the mid-atmospheric level water vapour looks like for Hilary at the moment:</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhrJAZl2MMIr65vX9z_Cc7GklcQBHYSeWCTB3JHp3alhjAHjlimdwB9Izeh2SerSVqOrwb2JkbHuNkLGh_IhLhIjJO98RUzIGO69Uepgi0ktcSGsW6UL3YPPKaW0n03GlGXjmS3c48zT5q8mK_s4VwDeqQlDrjXI1GROOn1agtgLlDjCXZXPyij/s1000/floater_floater_EP092023_band09_24fr_20230818-2315.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1000" data-original-width="1000" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhrJAZl2MMIr65vX9z_Cc7GklcQBHYSeWCTB3JHp3alhjAHjlimdwB9Izeh2SerSVqOrwb2JkbHuNkLGh_IhLhIjJO98RUzIGO69Uepgi0ktcSGsW6UL3YPPKaW0n03GlGXjmS3c48zT5q8mK_s4VwDeqQlDrjXI1GROOn1agtgLlDjCXZXPyij/w400-h400/floater_floater_EP092023_band09_24fr_20230818-2315.gif" width="400" /></a></div><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"><p style="font-family: georgia;">You can see the dry air to the north and west quite clearly. Dry air inhibits the storm from intensifying, and an area of humidity and water vapor helps a storm to keep going. To toggle between different water vapour channels from this page, above the image, on the left side of the screen you will see a drop down menu (next to 'Band'). </p><p style="font-family: georgia;">My favourite is the infrared satellite imagery because not only does it show where the storm is, but it also gives us an indication of how strong it is and what sort of weather we have. To get to these, you can pick Band 11 - called cloud-top phase (or cloud top IR).</p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">The colours represent how high the clouds reach into the atmosphere because they are based on the temperature at the top of the cloud (which is what the satellite sees). It gets colder the higher you get in the lower atmosphere (the troposphere - I'll talk about the troposphere tomorrow). So we can tell from cloud top temperature how deep (high up) the clouds are and therefore how strong the convection is! The red colours are very big high clouds with the coldest temperatures and blues and whites are lower, warmer clouds. The redder the cloud colour, the more active the convection, the stronger the storm. My general rule of thumb (having seen these images and lived under them at the same time) is that blue and green areas are mostly clouds, with some very heavy rainfall in the green areas. But as you get to the orange and red, you get thunderstorms and possible tornadoes (especially in the red/dark gray areas). <End Technical and Forecasting Alert!></span></p></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">Back to Hilary... she is clearly being impacted by dry air and wind shear, and as she continues to move north, she will be moving over cooler water and also interacting more with land, all of which will lead to a continuing steady decrease in strength. But she is still a robust storm and that eye is a beauty, showing us that the circulation is still very strong, and I agree with the NHC that she will be a hurricane when she clips the Baja peninsula - I expect she will be a strong cat 1 or weak cat 2:</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiRMMJKKHoqkCoVghBq-nmqyhAZDQhbIbBlNnjrKnepIA44u2WJZmRHPrrz5yHyyUQO8N6nf9WCkEflZMziqL3TScESzVRUt86MThkQmFZD0UjGrRMsS_h3wKxf6igQgztZQ9pOFK9ZVifDVRSoe2z3wFOoXUow_toY2NKlvcIWufieGGJTuDyY/s897/030420_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind_Hilary.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="736" data-original-width="897" height="526" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiRMMJKKHoqkCoVghBq-nmqyhAZDQhbIbBlNnjrKnepIA44u2WJZmRHPrrz5yHyyUQO8N6nf9WCkEflZMziqL3TScESzVRUt86MThkQmFZD0UjGrRMsS_h3wKxf6igQgztZQ9pOFK9ZVifDVRSoe2z3wFOoXUow_toY2NKlvcIWufieGGJTuDyY/w640-h526/030420_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind_Hilary.png" width="640" /></a></div><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">She's currently at 19.7N, 112.7W heading NNW at 13mph, which is a pretty good clip for a hurricane. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">As it's a Friday evening, I'll throw in another <Forecasting Alert!> just for you for fun! </span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;"><Forecasting Alert!> <u>Watches and Warnings</u>: You may have noticed that the colour of the coastline in the track chart above has changed from yesterdays lovely, fluffy, spring-like pinks and yellows, to todays bold and dark blues and reds. This is because these regions have changed from a 'Watch' (the fluffy spring colours) to a 'Warning' (the dark bold colours).</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">A Watch means those conditions may occur in those areas... but then again, they may not. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">A Warning means that those conditions WILL occur in those areas within the next 36 hours. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">A Tropical Storm Warning means you should expect winds of 39-73 mph within the next 36 hours, and a Hurricane Warning means you should expect winds of 74 mph or higher in the next 36 hours. <End Forecasting Alert!> </span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">So even if the center of the storm hasn't reached the Baja peninsula, you can see that the winds will start to pick up on Sunday ahead of the storm. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">In case you need any hints on supplies (for Greg M. in San Diego), here is my general list... </span></p><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333;">- water<br /></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333;">- batteries and flashlight</span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333;">- </span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia;">first-aid kit</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia;">- </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia;">full tank</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia;"> of gas in the car (or petrol if you are like me) </span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia;">- canned food and non-electric can opener</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia;">- sunscreen</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia;">- insect repellant</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia;">- hand-held fan</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia;">- candles and matches</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia;">- fully charged smart phone and laptops</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia;">- </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia;">batteries for the radio (if you have one)</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia;">- </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia;">two tubs of ice cream (different flavours to avoid </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia;">boredom)</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia;">- some ice cream cones (optional)</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia;">- </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia;">twelve bottles of wine (mostly red – no point getting too many white if there is no power for the fridge to cool it in!), </span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia;">- a non-electronic wine bottle opener</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia;">- fixings for lychee martinis (for the fruit - very healthy)</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia;">- good books to read</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia;">- cheese</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia;">- bags of PG Tips in a ziploc bag</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia;">- more ice cream (doubles up as a source of water). </span></div><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">As a storm approaches, you will need to start the day by eating up the ice cream... just in case the power goes out of course. ;-) </span></span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">More tomorrow (after I've been shopping! :-)). </span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Toodle pip!<br />J. </span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">--------------------------------------</span></p><div class="post-body entry-content" style="line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px 0px 0.75em;"><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">DISCLAIMER:</span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.</span></p><div><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div></div>Jyohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13799343640305859521noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34244528.post-30440779316200430112023-08-18T01:19:00.004-04:002023-08-18T01:19:50.317-04:00Definitely Not the Start of the 2023 Hurricane Season! August 17: Hurricane Hilary, Update A<p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Hello my friends! I know, I know, this is not the start of the 2023 Hurricane Season! I haven't forgotten you, but I was a bit busy with wotnots and ice cream, so I came up with a cunning plan... </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgfvl-H9lVohGl43ujdplgt1NC--_zWK72mpBfJWunxiB6gec83NMBBgLh6jxTG2L5KJdr8ohGtP0hUIeitEoDJb3g0VZOKHShQhFq5ZQWO4xNPsCXjGEj9K9a-RjyM3yDYW_EAhcndQnC4KKWsFIL5AJorG7Hz9yDKZIfH-7_-gsiIvm8c8ioA/s800/blackadder-quotes-series-3-cunning-plan.webp" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="800" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgfvl-H9lVohGl43ujdplgt1NC--_zWK72mpBfJWunxiB6gec83NMBBgLh6jxTG2L5KJdr8ohGtP0hUIeitEoDJb3g0VZOKHShQhFq5ZQWO4xNPsCXjGEj9K9a-RjyM3yDYW_EAhcndQnC4KKWsFIL5AJorG7Hz9yDKZIfH-7_-gsiIvm8c8ioA/s320/blackadder-quotes-series-3-cunning-plan.webp" width="320" /></a></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Yes, I was definitely marching with oodles of ill-deserved confidence... my cunning plan was to retire this year (from the blog, not in general)! I didn't think anyone would notice... after all, the NHC is doing so much better these days (well done, chaps) and even I defer to their track in the last 24 hours of landfall these days. </span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br />But, apparently, Mother Nature had other plans... if I won't go to the hurricanes, they will come to me, even in dry southern California. So, here I am. And here you are. </span><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">Welcome back! :-) And if this is your first time joining me, there are a few fun and very intelligent and noteworthy pointers and reminders about this blog.</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br />Before that though... please meet Hurricane Hilary, the 6th hurricane in the East Pacific this year...</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: large; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4aiXEGX40i6cu9LUrbhdzjuGRgeD5Re2QKMoBq1MY-AgEQAfU7IVWwmJWeZyg584UMvXm6EBERs47b_Qv1Pq5KBeXxQVdntgQurfNIjNBbb6ipZ0dQl4SNtOtmAZc1_36ona4BjmsS2fPqexCAwh_Kj1TVSZaFzEyVqtNxpf3mnIIuIovivcS/s897/024719_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind-%20Hilary%20-%20Aug%2017%20-%209pm.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="736" data-original-width="897" height="526" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4aiXEGX40i6cu9LUrbhdzjuGRgeD5Re2QKMoBq1MY-AgEQAfU7IVWwmJWeZyg584UMvXm6EBERs47b_Qv1Pq5KBeXxQVdntgQurfNIjNBbb6ipZ0dQl4SNtOtmAZc1_36ona4BjmsS2fPqexCAwh_Kj1TVSZaFzEyVqtNxpf3mnIIuIovivcS/w640-h526/024719_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind-%20Hilary%20-%20Aug%2017%20-%209pm.png" width="640" /></a></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">She is now a major cat 3 hurricane with winds of 125 mph (cat 3 range: 111-129mph), central pressure of 952mb - almost a cat 4 storm. She's at 16.7N, 110 W, heading WNW at 14mph. The current track shows that she will make landfall in northern Baja/southern California over the weekend, with the center passing anywhere in that cone - but she's a big storm so the effects will be felt ahead of her and outside the cone. And as this is desert territory, a bunch of rain could mean some flooding is about to happen (my wellies and umbrella are ready!). She is expected to make a NW turn tomorrow to stay on that track - that's one thing to watch for tomorrow. <br /></span><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Her circulation is quite strong throughout the lower atmosphere (the troposphere - I'll explain this jargon tomorrow) and she is a good looking storm with a beautiful, unwavering eye - I agree with the NHC on the strong cat 3, close to cat 4, strength:</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhBYXrmTryFL6ON2MNy-KyPb9CkwNFMyTaNpyHYkGaXYgYWJvoLY_lDcp4JR22KvV9yZolpK0crpu4ZmN6ACLjFq8UgIyWHYDS4MYDBmlis0AcuQ5M0Wqh-yLD3pxfTifzkq70NZBpX5rQrUmOdLK2W8M5ngmzq53RrNtuvM27bek5xulyGH_2h/s800/20232292110-20232300240-GOES18-ABI-EP092023-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="800" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhBYXrmTryFL6ON2MNy-KyPb9CkwNFMyTaNpyHYkGaXYgYWJvoLY_lDcp4JR22KvV9yZolpK0crpu4ZmN6ACLjFq8UgIyWHYDS4MYDBmlis0AcuQ5M0Wqh-yLD3pxfTifzkq70NZBpX5rQrUmOdLK2W8M5ngmzq53RrNtuvM27bek5xulyGH_2h/w400-h400/20232292110-20232300240-GOES18-ABI-EP092023-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000.gif" width="400" /></a></div><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">We know she is getting stronger because her convection (rainfall) is increasing (strong convection is represented by the more solid and dark red areas in this satellite image): </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: large; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgVRQ26yZ2YE9A8NYM_a9xxlP55uvMnmSKWH9b_uKL2sn9hny53dI2_cNCBkRCpU8xM_pNc0AjgbjzGFIk7kcf4cd--JpxVsgcqxS5bmC_iaYguxzMyjYcJCrBt__IeWsFDFRInvPgFpC1SQOxYO6w4A-ni9zlfGu1OHKqxsrenVpD6fKcWBOdQ/s1000/floater_floater_EP092023_band11_48fr_20230817-2351.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1000" data-original-width="1000" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgVRQ26yZ2YE9A8NYM_a9xxlP55uvMnmSKWH9b_uKL2sn9hny53dI2_cNCBkRCpU8xM_pNc0AjgbjzGFIk7kcf4cd--JpxVsgcqxS5bmC_iaYguxzMyjYcJCrBt__IeWsFDFRInvPgFpC1SQOxYO6w4A-ni9zlfGu1OHKqxsrenVpD6fKcWBOdQ/w400-h400/floater_floater_EP092023_band11_48fr_20230817-2351.gif" width="400" /></a></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Parts of Central America, including Mexico, are already getting a few drops of rain - and some is accompanied by thunder I expect (the red areas). </span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><span style="font-size: medium;">The reason she strengthened is because: (1) she is over some very warm water with the sea surface warmer than 28.5 deg C (tropical storms need sea surface temperatures of at least 26 deg C to keep going); (2) the upper ~50-75 m of water under her at the moment is warmer than 26 deg C which means she is churning up warm water to sustain herself; (3) she's in an area of very little wind shear; and, (4) she is in a region of high water vapor. I expect she will get a bit stronger - perhaps reaching a cat 4 soon. </span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><span style="font-size: medium;">However, as she moves north and closer to Baja, she should start to slowly weaken (from a strong cat 3/cat 4) because: (1) the sea surface starts to get cooler and drops below 26 deg somewhere near southern-mid Baja </span></span><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">(around where she clips the peninsula in the track image above)</span><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">, so she will be churning up cooler water; (2) there is a bit of drier air to her northwest in the lowest level of the atmosphere; and, (3) as she gets closer to land, some of the energy will start to leave her. The one thing I don't see yet is an increase in wind shear and this is one thing I will also be looking for tomorrow. </span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><span style="font-size: medium;">That's all on Hilary for today. Meanwhile, as I'm here, what's been happening in the Atlantic? Well, it's been pretty quiet so far - but remember, it can be a quiet season and it only needs one major storm to make it a tough season! The classic example is Hurricane Andrew, the first storm of 1992, a cat 5 that went over the Bahamas and hit Miami in late August of that year. </span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><span style="font-size: medium;">So far the Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico has had 4 relatively small (and maybe almost non-existent in some cases) storms: </span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><span style="font-size: medium;">TS Arlene - pretty much a non-starter in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico, but it was nice of her to welcome in the start of the Atlantic Hurricane Season on June 1. </span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><span style="font-size: medium;">TS Brett - the second storm in June, he turned into a strong Tropical Storm as he passed over the windward islands of the Caribbean and fizzled after that.</span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><span style="font-size: medium;">TS Cindy - overlapped with Brett, but as a weaker storm, she avoided his Caribbean turf and just enjoyed a few days at the end of June tootling around in the mid-Atlantic. </span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><span style="font-size: medium;">Hurricane Don - he was just plain confused. He was chasing his own tail in the mid-Atlantic in July, was officially upgraded from a Tropical Storm to Hurricane for about 12 hours, and that was it. </span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">There are a few blobs and blobettes out there, in the eastern and mid-Atlantic, that I'll keep an eye on, but that's all for now on the Atlantic. </span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><span style="font-size: medium;">Lastly (finally, I hear you say!) here are the rules of the blog, expertly cut and pasted from a previous year (yes, this is old school my peeps!)...</span></span></div><p style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">1. These updates are about fun, forecasting, and education... and tropical storms and whatever else pops into my head that may fit those three words (with some imagination and possibly after a lychee martini or two). It is just what I think.</span></p><p style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">2. I have a British sense of humoUr... you have been warned. There will be random letters in words when you least expect them. But less random than if this was in Welsh. Or Irish (Gaelic). </span></p><p style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">3. This is my hobby - sometimes you'll get one update a day, sometime four. If you are really lucky, you won't get any. If you wish to pay me to write, let me know. I know there's an AI device out there that can take over and make this into the masterpiece of writing I can only dream of, but this is a Chat GPT-Free Zone.</span></p><p style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">4. I hope you like Monty Python, Eddie Izzard, The IT Crowd. And other Funny Stuff.</span></p><p style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">5. If you have any questions (preferably about tropical storms), please ask. I will be happy to make up the answers for you. I can also continue to cut and paste from previous entries (I’m very talented!) so if I say something or use some "scientific jargon" (always thrilling!), please ask me about it.</span></p><p style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">6. I often write tongue-in-cheek, which sometimes hurts my cheek but what can you do? Gentle sarcasm, irony, and puns are all perfectly acceptable forms of communication. Unfortunately, they don't always translate in writing so please don't be offended - like Planet Earth, I'm "Mostly Harmless" (Douglas Adams). Have a piece of chocolate or a soothing cup of tea instead.</span></p><p style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">7. I'm sure every cloud in the Atlantic (or elsewhere in the world) is exciting to some but, unless I'm bored, I'll usually write about those that I think are important.</span></p><p style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">8. Despite what you may have heard, I am not always right. But then neither is anyone else. Forecasting is complicated. Sometimes the crystal ball gets smudges and you are all out of Windex to clean it and the store is closed. So PLEASE pay attention to the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service and your Emergency Managers - especially when a storm is looming because they have the most up-to-date information!!</span></p><p style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">9. I confess I used to be a twit - but now I don't know what to call it that doesn't make it sound like a placeholder letter. However, I am on twitter (@jyovianstorm) as it will always be known to me. I will post these updates on Twitter/placeholder letter, but I’ll also tweet about storms in other basins, my job (including live dives exploring the deep sea – ooh, ahh, you never know what you will see!), my movie, other people’s jobs, other people's movies, cool science, brilliant people, goofy things etc. so if you want to catch up between updates, that’s might be a place to lurk (at least for now).</span></p><p style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">10. I will refer to ice cream, wine, cheese, cups of tea, jaffa cakes, and lychee martinis fairly frequently. To preemptively answer your questions, I do eat and drink other things for a balanced diet. For example, prawn cocktail crisps, fruit & nut chocolate, water, G&Ts.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Sigh. Guess I'll retire next year. ;-) Now, where's that mint choc chip...</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Toodle pip!</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">J. </span></p><p style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/</span></p><div class="post-body entry-content" style="background-color: white; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px 0px 0.75em;"><div style="line-height: 20.8px; margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">Twitter @JyovianStorm</span></div></div><p><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">--------------------------------------</span></p><div class="post-body entry-content" style="line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px 0px 0.75em;"><p style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">DISCLAIMER:</span></p><p style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.</span></p><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div></div>Jyohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13799343640305859521noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34244528.post-83181771726435446122022-10-01T00:15:00.003-04:002022-10-01T00:17:32.840-04:00September 30, Update A: Post-Tropical Cyclone Ian<p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">It's the weekend after one long week, so I'm sure you'll be happy to know that this will be my last update on what is now Post-Tropical Storm Ian. </span></span></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">He made his final landfall just after 2pm local time near Georgetown, South Carolina, 55 miles NE of Charleston, as a cat 1 level storm with winds of 85 mph, central pressure 977mb. He is now at 35.3N, 79.5W and heading north at 15mph. Winds are around 50mph, central pressure of 994mb, which makes him the equivalent of a weak Tropical Storm. Now he has moved away from the Gulf Stream there isn't much left in this system as far as convection goes:</span></span></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4ZO2aXOEKjqAoYlfftHedqVBFLmizaIbidsNgDijPAlf_AT_zXDYfY5Yxi_BNOdCqcqbb7IzsZHxLG8ySVFa3z6kRHYKzKw0fID0_b5uBUnOObYT7B4cwb71uCzanv7jlncWOamccJzx6hrquGw4rvKfXP1NpmbmDHTdm54ij7CVOnwA9-w/s1000/floater_floater_AL092022_band11_72fr_20220930-2342.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1000" data-original-width="1000" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4ZO2aXOEKjqAoYlfftHedqVBFLmizaIbidsNgDijPAlf_AT_zXDYfY5Yxi_BNOdCqcqbb7IzsZHxLG8ySVFa3z6kRHYKzKw0fID0_b5uBUnOObYT7B4cwb71uCzanv7jlncWOamccJzx6hrquGw4rvKfXP1NpmbmDHTdm54ij7CVOnwA9-w/w640-h640/floater_floater_AL092022_band11_72fr_20220930-2342.gif" width="640" /></a></span></div><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"><br /><span style="background-color: white;">He certainly caused a lot of damage and sadly, multiple deaths, in Cuba and Florida. But this is the last time we will have a tropical storm called Ian. </span></span><p></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif;">Atlantic tropical cyclone names are re-used on a 6 year cycle until they cause so much destruction and loss of life that they are retired. </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif;">Given the scale of devastation, the name 'Ian' will be retired from the list of Atlantic tropical cyclone names</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif;">, so in 6 years, we'll have a different 'I' storm. </span></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">As for what else is out there... there is a small Atlantic Blob not too far off the coast of Africa. We'll see how it develops, but for now, nothing much to write home about. </span></span></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">The next storm name will be Karl.</span></span></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">Until then,</span></span></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">Toodle pip! </span></span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif; font-size: 16px;">J. </span></p><div class="post-body entry-content" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px 0px 0.75em;"><div><p></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif;">Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/</span></p><div class="post-body entry-content" style="line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px 0px 0.75em;"><div class="post-body entry-content" style="line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px 0px 0.75em;"><div style="line-height: 20.8px; margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Twitter @JyovianStorm</span></span></div><div style="line-height: 20.8px; margin: 0in;"><span style="font-size: medium;">--------------------------------------</span></div><div class="post-body entry-content" style="line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px 0px 0.75em;"><p><span style="font-size: medium;">DISCLAIMER:</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.</span></p><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div></div></div></div></div><div style="clear: both;"></div></div><div class="post-footer" style="background-color: white; color: #999999; font-family: "Trebuchet MS", Trebuchet, Arial, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12.48px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; letter-spacing: 0.1em; line-height: 1.4em; margin: 0.75em 0px; text-transform: uppercase;"></div>Jyohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13799343640305859521noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34244528.post-15662595833361197302022-09-30T00:59:00.003-04:002022-09-30T00:59:25.393-04:00September 29, Update A: Hurricane Ian<p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">Phew... this was a two glasses of wine evening! The good news is that the Tampa Bay area got off fairly lightly, but I'm sure you have all seen the destruction in the Ft. Myers area and other parts of the state with many areas still flooded, almost 2 million without power, and 14 deaths so far in Florida. This will be the last time we have a Hurricane Ian on the roster and in 6 years, it will be another name for 'I'. But, alas, Ian isn't quite over yet... </span></span></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">He is now officially a mid-intensity cat 1 storm with winds of 85mph, central pressure 984mb (cat 1 range: 74-95mph):</span></span></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhl31tlFclxr1Pdp4gmA2eT_3PsbPQuKriU1X5XKaHsZJe2tkHc9hscgeIOIKpun9x47EPkTu6wnAV-5WkiyXToDXCUS43ks2zLo7pzf4KAar-AAabwiZ2ESlzwykLC8oPzdqNdDVI0iJq1Z4OrgOJ2VyBQgxAZjV2SyQDw0xBy-xEUgUMXJw/s1000/floater_floater_AL092022_band11_72fr_20220930-0008.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1000" data-original-width="1000" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhl31tlFclxr1Pdp4gmA2eT_3PsbPQuKriU1X5XKaHsZJe2tkHc9hscgeIOIKpun9x47EPkTu6wnAV-5WkiyXToDXCUS43ks2zLo7pzf4KAar-AAabwiZ2ESlzwykLC8oPzdqNdDVI0iJq1Z4OrgOJ2VyBQgxAZjV2SyQDw0xBy-xEUgUMXJw/w640-h640/floater_floater_AL092022_band11_72fr_20220930-0008.gif" width="640" /></a></span></div><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif;"><br /><span style="background-color: white;">His convection is not very strong though - in fact, what little we see in the satellite imagery above is because he is over the warm (and deep warm) waters of the Gulf Stream. This is an area where storms usually get stronger but there are three reasons he doesn't look as strong as we would expect. First, there is the wind shear which he's been experiencing for the last couple of days. This has resulted in his upper level circulation being offset from the lower level circulation so he is not very well vertically aligned. Second, there is an immense amount of dry air. The satellite imagery below is the water vapor from the mid-levels of the troposphere and the yellow areas are dry air:</span></span><p></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEio4uN2nt7zcW7PcvgfRPB-kv9LnrWLlxHlZpxV6OVl3UC5IuXTBWaBJPaELsS5ar7xOFpmlfDm0iKQflGTDorqZjJBwUh6_mpM4FwXLjVhQHOeUOdeKvAYtdL7J5pT2HkR58j9a-3a21-7ToN1XytWGXK_qSJPphjzTcf-QWVgUChnb_ET9Q/s1000/floater_floater_AL092022_band09_72fr_20220930-0012.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1000" data-original-width="1000" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEio4uN2nt7zcW7PcvgfRPB-kv9LnrWLlxHlZpxV6OVl3UC5IuXTBWaBJPaELsS5ar7xOFpmlfDm0iKQflGTDorqZjJBwUh6_mpM4FwXLjVhQHOeUOdeKvAYtdL7J5pT2HkR58j9a-3a21-7ToN1XytWGXK_qSJPphjzTcf-QWVgUChnb_ET9Q/w640-h640/floater_floater_AL092022_band09_72fr_20220930-0012.gif" width="640" /></a></span></div><p></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif;">And third, although he is officially a hurricane on the books, he is actually merging with a front which is really where he is getting that extra boost of energy (instead of from the ocean, which is where he would get it if he were truly a tropical storm). The lowest levels of the troposphere are already looking more like a front - the upper levels are still showing tropical storm circulation. This merging of a tropical storm and a front is what happened with Post-Tropical Storm Fiona as she reached Canada last week. </span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif;">For a hot minute before leaving Florida (just north of Cape Canaveral near New Smyrna Beach) he was officially downgraded to a Tropical Storm but promptly went back up to hurricane strength. I am not sure he really lost that hurricane intensity because his circulation remained fairly strong throughout the troposphere - even in the higher levels - which means he had a relatively good storm structure of the sort we see in hurricanes. </span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif;">He might get a little stronger before reaching land which looks like it will be the South Carolina coast (near the North Carolina border) tomorrow:</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjfiBpnRWe4YDIJn7AbSFJnBu1pz6npBQwbm81_W7cgng1LtL6RwTJOYREYUUbROJzEUnuuyUjnTIZh1QQNotkjfDKVvI5Mtd6R1THcwHZ8WcoaelgA6SwNuZ1XzowQaA-pD8G0dIYQGrd6leUpYQ8xPEYGqFDXS8-RYe4PmWEjVeJRa9_h4Q/s897/031946_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind_Ian.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="736" data-original-width="897" height="526" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjfiBpnRWe4YDIJn7AbSFJnBu1pz6npBQwbm81_W7cgng1LtL6RwTJOYREYUUbROJzEUnuuyUjnTIZh1QQNotkjfDKVvI5Mtd6R1THcwHZ8WcoaelgA6SwNuZ1XzowQaA-pD8G0dIYQGrd6leUpYQ8xPEYGqFDXS8-RYe4PmWEjVeJRa9_h4Q/w640-h526/031946_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind_Ian.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif;">He is currently at 30.2N, 79.3W, heading NNE at 10mph. As expected, the track has shifted eastward all day and is now getting closer to a good estimate for landfall - better than this time yesterday... landfall may be near Myrtle Beach, although, if you are in Wilmington, NC, you may want to be ready for a bit of a breeze in addition to the rain you will get as I think he still has room to shift to the east.</span><p></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif;">The winds will be pushing water onto the coast north of the center, and off the coast south of the center. I would suggest you have a look at the sea level sensors along the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina, however that won't take long because it looks like there is only one in Georgia - in Savannah - and two in South Carolina - one in Charleston and one near Myrtle Beach. Water at Fernandina Beach in Florida is at around 2ft above normal, and Savannah is 1 ft above normal at the moment. </span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif;">Tomorrow, I hope I'll be saying that Hurricane Ian is over! In the meantime, for those of you in the Carolinas - l</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif;">isten to your emergency managers and be safe. </span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif; font-size: 16px;">Ciao,</span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif; font-size: 16px;">J. </span></p><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;"><p></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif;">Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/</span></p><div class="post-body entry-content" style="line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px 0px 0.75em;"><div class="post-body entry-content" style="line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px 0px 0.75em;"><div style="line-height: 20.8px; margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Twitter @JyovianStorm</span></span></div><div style="line-height: 20.8px; margin: 0in;"><span style="font-size: medium;">--------------------------------------</span></div><div class="post-body entry-content" style="line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px 0px 0.75em;"><p><span style="font-size: medium;">DISCLAIMER:</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.</span></p></div></div></div></div>Jyohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13799343640305859521noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34244528.post-43957656364268628712022-09-28T20:59:00.002-04:002022-09-28T20:59:22.137-04:00September 28, Update A: Hurricane Ian and the Atlantic Blobette<p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">Oh dearie me. Ian is such a nice human being... but not such a nice storm. In Cuba, he wiped out power - not just on the western side but across the entire island (for the first time). </span></span></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><b>Hurricane Ian</b></span></span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif;">In Florida, he made landfall a few hours ago at Cayo Costa in the Sanibel/Captiva/Fort Meyers/Charlotte Harbor area of Florida and they are now experiencing what remains of his rougher weather as he passes by:</span></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj6hYpqQRG3708puRiv7SK7HChj2qJMxS0uKalMzhlWBd_09c549UaTjmuy_A1xUyYBgby4gBw4eBeeqDu7bz7A7bguHlI-RA_FwsNXpwvuuxYcvzoZRbS9ioYINv8IcH617IVqtSKT9L_XYEXJEIV0ljyDdahnlEnKTwjVbEFD4JVyZebxJg/s1000/floater_floater_AL092022_band11_48fr_20220928-2017.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1000" data-original-width="1000" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj6hYpqQRG3708puRiv7SK7HChj2qJMxS0uKalMzhlWBd_09c549UaTjmuy_A1xUyYBgby4gBw4eBeeqDu7bz7A7bguHlI-RA_FwsNXpwvuuxYcvzoZRbS9ioYINv8IcH617IVqtSKT9L_XYEXJEIV0ljyDdahnlEnKTwjVbEFD4JVyZebxJg/w640-h640/floater_floater_AL092022_band11_48fr_20220928-2017.gif" width="640" /></a></span></div><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><span style="background-color: white;">He officially made landfall at around noon local time as a cat 4 storm with winds just under 150mph, central pressure of 940 mb (cat 4 range: 131-156mph) - a big storm covering a lot of ground and bringing a load of rain to the Sunshine State. </span></span><p></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif;">Winds are officially now 115mph, central pressure 960mb, which makes him a cat 3 storm (cat 3 range: 111-130mph). He is clearly not as robust looking as he was at landfall, which suggests a weaker storm - he still has an eye but he may even be a strong cat 2 at this point, but not too far off from his current cat 3 status. </span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif;">As expected, the storm surge has been incredibly high south of landfall. </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif;">At Fort Myers, just south of where the center of the storm passed, at the location of the sensors, the water peaked at over 7 ft above normal:</span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhloj6xuXlbZfJaq3aHT5Gg9TRRlXQXvlWsLAqTbn-NYi7BBoYMNRE-rize0j5u-n2axnXYhzMF9S9fz1eUHCc8DYSnQHdNb2ONNjP6JY0GGEzrmLIzI7Bc-zeT0q83X3qvBcsp98vmskzmmu_vdDzCkLmuoEMipEnesB_rib7180W_KU7ttQ/s1506/Screen%20Shot%202022-09-28%20at%205.25.53%20PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1000" data-original-width="1506" height="265" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhloj6xuXlbZfJaq3aHT5Gg9TRRlXQXvlWsLAqTbn-NYi7BBoYMNRE-rize0j5u-n2axnXYhzMF9S9fz1eUHCc8DYSnQHdNb2ONNjP6JY0GGEzrmLIzI7Bc-zeT0q83X3qvBcsp98vmskzmmu_vdDzCkLmuoEMipEnesB_rib7180W_KU7ttQ/w400-h265/Screen%20Shot%202022-09-28%20at%205.25.53%20PM.png" width="400" /></a></div><p></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif;">Further the south, in Naples, it looks like the sensor station stopped working when the storm was close enough, but even then it got to over 6ft above normal:</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhDa7DZgHcIPEcT5y-xDhmC95hvfBTvv36DsWfatJYOz_FBcvYZuTucCulwXju_kO7xhEsep8ZhamR3HOzY9ZoQMgUJWKYBVCGBXyMFM70cy9pydQWd_JaaFPMqrMOkMaXmm8hyHD6Qa7PLCPCSytlcqE7FseL5hfwyDc7mw91zxGXeDINI3A/s1488/Screen%20Shot%202022-09-28%20at%203.14.49%20PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="982" data-original-width="1488" height="264" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhDa7DZgHcIPEcT5y-xDhmC95hvfBTvv36DsWfatJYOz_FBcvYZuTucCulwXju_kO7xhEsep8ZhamR3HOzY9ZoQMgUJWKYBVCGBXyMFM70cy9pydQWd_JaaFPMqrMOkMaXmm8hyHD6Qa7PLCPCSytlcqE7FseL5hfwyDc7mw91zxGXeDINI3A/w400-h264/Screen%20Shot%202022-09-28%20at%203.14.49%20PM.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif;">And in Tampa Bay to the north of the center - at St. Pete (my old home) the water levels were, as expected (isn't physics great?!), over 5 ft below normal:</span><p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi926Ix-c-T1tt2-dTeuG4_QEYSn_9i2rqzrK821Tvf1Pm-XEo60XUxW9JGPmUAOZDiQjntAtHFcTDxrIm2FclClW_9Fb_fuVb-CZ9Jx3J7c6ZZOkeIY7CjkDw3fFJT76PL4ga2Q5jwH0MmqcPN-k4QiwNADJbMjXdT0EaVr-Wxs3Jb0Bz7OA/s1508/Screen%20Shot%202022-09-28%20at%205.26.53%20PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="998" data-original-width="1508" height="265" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi926Ix-c-T1tt2-dTeuG4_QEYSn_9i2rqzrK821Tvf1Pm-XEo60XUxW9JGPmUAOZDiQjntAtHFcTDxrIm2FclClW_9Fb_fuVb-CZ9Jx3J7c6ZZOkeIY7CjkDw3fFJT76PL4ga2Q5jwH0MmqcPN-k4QiwNADJbMjXdT0EaVr-Wxs3Jb0Bz7OA/w400-h265/Screen%20Shot%202022-09-28%20at%205.26.53%20PM.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">In case you didn't click on the link yesterday on how to look this up for yourself, I'm doing that very clever thing of copying and pasting my own writing here for you... </span></span><p></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><Technical Alert!></span></span><span style="font-size: 16px;"> </span><span style="font-family: georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;"><u>How to look up Storm Surge</u>: Go to NOAA's website: <a href="https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/" style="color: #0066cc; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">tidesandcurrents</a> (</span><span style="font-family: georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;">https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/). </span><span style="font-family: georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;">If you click on this link, you will see an ugly cartoonish bad-suntan coloured map of the US (in shades of orange to represent the land - don't ask me why they picked this colour). Click on the state that you are interested in e.g. Florida. This will show you a much nicer colour map with a bunch of pins. These are the locations of the stations. You have to be careful though (if you are on a Mac especially) because the map is not static so you can accidentally scroll around and end up in the middle of the Atlantic, and will have to zoom out until the map you want re-appears and then zoom back in. A bit fiddly, I have to say. </span></p><p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="background-color: white; clear: both; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-family: georgia, serif;">You can either locate the nearest station by entering the area you are interested in, or zoom into the map. Click on that station, and in the lower left is a button that says 'plot'. Click that on and it will show you a plot of the expected water level (in red) and the actual measured water level (in blue). </span></div><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;">By scrolling your mouse over the plot, the numbers appear showing the actual values (and then you have to do some complicated maths to get to the difference between the two - I know... get that calculator out! ;-)). </span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;">If you want to see the corresponding winds, air pressure and other handy-dandy data, you can scroll down. </span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><End Technical Alert!></span></span><span style="font-size: 16px;"> </span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;">So here, for example, is the pressure field at Ft. Myers which clearly shows what the pressure was when the storm was closest to this location...</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEggELuBHD5U8alRO_a4i8ikbm4ulVihuLBQSfKViQyaNk2Cn3POk5AZV4OPArqgCvfxu4wwtUnZp3ol3GU4jyHQOlKUgn1kvf5QRxO5xazWJQttANLGkhJv7kb2yOS44FF-0-w2gMge5s6gZOyXZul2Oyd4n9VGvnvj16TKKIqOQ8rzZroEHg/s1514/Screen%20Shot%202022-09-28%20at%203.27.08%20PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1006" data-original-width="1514" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEggELuBHD5U8alRO_a4i8ikbm4ulVihuLBQSfKViQyaNk2Cn3POk5AZV4OPArqgCvfxu4wwtUnZp3ol3GU4jyHQOlKUgn1kvf5QRxO5xazWJQttANLGkhJv7kb2yOS44FF-0-w2gMge5s6gZOyXZul2Oyd4n9VGvnvj16TKKIqOQ8rzZroEHg/w400-h266/Screen%20Shot%202022-09-28%20at%203.27.08%20PM.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">Interestingly, the eye of the storm passed very close to this area and the official low pressure of 937mb is quite a bit lower than the in-situ measurement here, which suggests that at this location at least the storm was not a cat 4. </span></span><p></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;">And if you want to have a look at data offshore, check out the </span><a href="http://comps.marine.usf.edu:81/?health=Off&quality=Off&units=Metric&duration=3%20days&maps=storm_tracks&legend=Off&forecast=Point&hti=&nhc=undefined&nhcWinds=undefined&sst=&current=&datum=MLLW&windPrediction=wind%20speed%20prediction&region=&bbox=-86.52832031250001,24.617057340809524,-79.47509765625001,30.439202087235607&iframe=null&mode=home" style="background-color: white; color: blue; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px; text-decoration-line: none;">University of South Florida College of Marine Science COMPS network</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;"> (these are the moorings I got my PhD data from a <ahem> couple <ahem> of years ago ;-)), which is part of the </span><a href="https://secoora.org/" style="background-color: white; color: blue; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px; text-decoration-line: none;">Southeast Coastal Ocean Observing System</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;"> and the </span><a href="https://gcoos.org/" style="background-color: white; color: blue; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px; text-decoration-line: none;">Gulf of Mexico Coastal Ocean Observing System</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;">:</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg0jXsDbASsts2X86zezmFLQvYNly2k6tx1awtWYwfuT5CpUR5ompHIVxlOdAuGhIT93m9GUvre_woeTmpnCQr63aMebKInRSMDopHiDmhcEXdNGV9Ca-8pTxrRBrg-KAdJ_9jAbsnDYhh9teh35SX3gB6aycZuoqO5YamdgtvErerxsB6V-Q/s2030/Screen%20Shot%202022-09-28%20at%203.34.08%20PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1256" data-original-width="2030" height="397" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg0jXsDbASsts2X86zezmFLQvYNly2k6tx1awtWYwfuT5CpUR5ompHIVxlOdAuGhIT93m9GUvre_woeTmpnCQr63aMebKInRSMDopHiDmhcEXdNGV9Ca-8pTxrRBrg-KAdJ_9jAbsnDYhh9teh35SX3gB6aycZuoqO5YamdgtvErerxsB6V-Q/w640-h397/Screen%20Shot%202022-09-28%20at%203.34.08%20PM.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;">The air pressure at the mooring closest to the Hurricane Ian (C10) - just to the northwest of the track - showed a low pressure of 993mb with maximum winds of around 60mph, so that mooring was definitely under a Tropical Storm. </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;">To understand the storm and get a better idea of what it is like before making landfall, we need these good observations off shore! </span><p></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif; font-size: 16px;">He is currently at 27.2N, 81.7W, heading NNE at 8mph and is expected to leave Florida tomorrow as a Tropical Storm and head into southern South Carolina. Tricky to tell, but I think he is still going to head more to the eastern side of that cone of uncertainty, so again - get ready if you are in that cone.<br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwSnhlz04bH08jjpsywh-c90Dw3XxIJLCnaA7rhXSuMuf7aYpHIiVcyTC-FAoIZAxF_YbLDCLRCgVSliojVQCrl3YsXmBgL0MIbh--gKTgnd8I5NS8ipM2rGXiI34FT_JD5DNq6l0mwbAk5MX46PEP9mbrikbcF2IC004WBUdU_4y7Xqivcg/s897/215607_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind_Ian.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="736" data-original-width="897" height="526" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwSnhlz04bH08jjpsywh-c90Dw3XxIJLCnaA7rhXSuMuf7aYpHIiVcyTC-FAoIZAxF_YbLDCLRCgVSliojVQCrl3YsXmBgL0MIbh--gKTgnd8I5NS8ipM2rGXiI34FT_JD5DNq6l0mwbAk5MX46PEP9mbrikbcF2IC004WBUdU_4y7Xqivcg/w640-h526/215607_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind_Ian.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif; font-size: 16px;">He may be a bit stronger than a Tropical Storm by the time he leaves Florida, but we'll see. He has very good circulation in the upper troposphere and is also interacting with the warm and deep waters of the Gulf Stream as he exits Florida and heads north, so at the very least, he'll continue to bring rain, rain, and more rain. </span><div><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">I've had a few reports along the west coast of Florida. Here's a video (with sound) from a couple of hours ago from Chas S. in St. Pete - it looks like a lovely, blustery day:</span></span><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe allowfullscreen='allowfullscreen' webkitallowfullscreen='webkitallowfullscreen' mozallowfullscreen='mozallowfullscreen' width='320' height='266' src='https://www.blogger.com/video.g?token=AD6v5dwWUMco6ysp5my_55qkn0B9JuGsuCpH3qo-gvAwonU_Rd6FB4P61Iei9ozypH2ZdVWS_cl6Kb6b9nc' class='b-hbp-video b-uploaded' frameborder='0'></iframe></div><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif;"><br /></span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif;">I also heard about a downed power line sparking on the ground... as you go out after the storm, be careful of downed power lines in puddles please. Electricity + Water = Not Good. </span></div><div><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif;"><br />Tomorrow we'll have a clearer idea of the impact on the west coast of Florida. </span></div><div><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif;"><b>Atlantic Blobette (Tropical Depression 11)</b></span></div><div><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif;">And it's not quite over yet... there's another blobette out there:</span></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgTe3Smg9wYn0qAjxptSqyL4HGduZywdcr9kUOfizqD5LYao1ZnSm4R8RplrMNBqzYFUB2kHotGLC0FT--g2vIiFSATU-2WnNFjDRdZOr2qW2_J1WetWONy730HwVUlId9H1joNds0NgBIWu67R5YQ2hp8QKudAGmOO1X3JJdVckFQ0fPo4MQ/s897/203657_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="736" data-original-width="897" height="526" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgTe3Smg9wYn0qAjxptSqyL4HGduZywdcr9kUOfizqD5LYao1ZnSm4R8RplrMNBqzYFUB2kHotGLC0FT--g2vIiFSATU-2WnNFjDRdZOr2qW2_J1WetWONy730HwVUlId9H1joNds0NgBIWu67R5YQ2hp8QKudAGmOO1X3JJdVckFQ0fPo4MQ/w640-h526/203657_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif;">They expect her to become Tropical Storm Julia tomorrow. She doesn't have much circulation yet though - not even in the middle levels of the troposphere so we'll see if she is robust enough to be named. But she's another shortie (like me ;-)) and will stay out in the Atlantic, so this is going to be my only mention of her. <br /></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif; font-size: 16px;"><br /></span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">Listen to your emergency managers. Be safe! Eat Jaffa Cakes. </span></span></div><div><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif; font-size: 16px;">Toodle pip,</span></div><div><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif; font-size: 16px;">J. </span></div><div><p></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif; font-size: 16px;">Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/</span></p><div class="post-body entry-content" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px 0px 0.75em;"><div class="post-body entry-content" style="line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px 0px 0.75em;"><div style="line-height: 20.8px; margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Twitter @JyovianStorm</span></span></div><div style="line-height: 20.8px; margin: 0in;"><span style="font-size: medium;">--------------------------------------</span></div><div class="post-body entry-content" style="line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px 0px 0.75em;"><p><span style="font-size: medium;">DISCLAIMER:</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.</span></p></div></div></div></div></div>Jyohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13799343640305859521noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34244528.post-89094811170359366362022-09-27T22:05:00.003-04:002022-09-28T00:25:41.557-04:00September 27, Update A: Hurricane Ian<p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">It's getting a bit hot out there, so I've got my ice cream and I'm ready to check in on Hurricane Ian...</span></span></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">Track: I, along with a few hundred thousand of my closest friends, have been watching Ian's track shifting to the east (and hence south) all day. He is currently at 24.4N, 83W, heading NNE at 10mph - making that turn towards the east sooner than officially forecast yesterday. This means he will be making landfall tomorrow, not Thursday:</span></span></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgh5MoXPFZ-xpaFzBfdh48rmNoUu5gq0Z6qZjfU35t2iAbT499WTNtT5rVHwNOi3GEq_-ihwqJtotI_GZG1eFtzCzJo4UpBlpEJjAJY0M71MvxBP9UlkF3-Ex9IPiZ3juVhmDv_kj-uWKavXW2gz3_TgbrsArKOtur9Cbbsg9VTbVuWj7inyg/s897/220203_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind_Ian.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="736" data-original-width="897" height="526" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgh5MoXPFZ-xpaFzBfdh48rmNoUu5gq0Z6qZjfU35t2iAbT499WTNtT5rVHwNOi3GEq_-ihwqJtotI_GZG1eFtzCzJo4UpBlpEJjAJY0M71MvxBP9UlkF3-Ex9IPiZ3juVhmDv_kj-uWKavXW2gz3_TgbrsArKOtur9Cbbsg9VTbVuWj7inyg/w640-h526/220203_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind_Ian.png" width="640" /></a></span></div><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"><br /><span style="background-color: white;">That change in track also means his intensity will be a little different than forecast but more on that later. After landfall, the pressure fields are set up to push him across the state in the general NE direction we see in the official forecast - emerging maybe a little south of where the forecast is at the moment (perhaps the Daytona Beach/New Smyrna Beach area) - but still within that cone of uncertainty so please keep an eye on the entire cone! </span></span><p></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">Intensity: He is currently a mid-size cat 3 storm with winds of 120mph, central pressure 947mb (111-129mph). I agree with this estimate. </span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif;">Given that his track has shifted, his intensity will be different as well. There are a couple of things that are working to keep him a little in check. First, he won't be over that deep warm water as much as previously forecast and second, the wind shear has really picked up which you can see in the clouds that are streaming off to the northeast. The eye is already looking worse actually...</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFjgZjG7hkLk3y_fQnZS3PBf8A0xIFZagODeVIT2BiCzMk62XweyHld6Jw9ByJhaA7n9LluG2Id4EBvANx8MvG9KgleW-cdz36n-liCa9bWF4CEndAknR6EUYRxo3Bi3Ey3uW6baFovqAaTGl2Jy1Kqd_7vHCIU9Sdho5W3hWAeBKwFkL_FQ/s1000/floater_floater_AL092022_band11_24fr_20220927-2110.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1000" data-original-width="1000" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFjgZjG7hkLk3y_fQnZS3PBf8A0xIFZagODeVIT2BiCzMk62XweyHld6Jw9ByJhaA7n9LluG2Id4EBvANx8MvG9KgleW-cdz36n-liCa9bWF4CEndAknR6EUYRxo3Bi3Ey3uW6baFovqAaTGl2Jy1Kqd_7vHCIU9Sdho5W3hWAeBKwFkL_FQ/w640-h640/floater_floater_AL092022_band11_24fr_20220927-2110.gif" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif;">And just to show you how far the clouds are streaming off Ian due to wind shear, here's the amazing satellite imagery of <i>half </i>of our planet: </span><p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9pJysL4Ujz75ESxM8yHjTZCBntZI3NloYLTwlmJjggU7xRPAcZqjRYmtPAjj06CHMehCa7yxDI0qXebbptQQWAhE8alMOAu-_shPJqjgPbmhOAxbPphfK8zhbtc-PkGWxO5Isl0KGFFCDyz49PVEqzeCc4PzTJck959lG2Z8hl96lzCt-Iw/s1808/G16_fd_GEOCOLOR_24fr_20220927-2055.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1808" data-original-width="1808" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9pJysL4Ujz75ESxM8yHjTZCBntZI3NloYLTwlmJjggU7xRPAcZqjRYmtPAjj06CHMehCa7yxDI0qXebbptQQWAhE8alMOAu-_shPJqjgPbmhOAxbPphfK8zhbtc-PkGWxO5Isl0KGFFCDyz49PVEqzeCc4PzTJck959lG2Z8hl96lzCt-Iw/w640-h640/G16_fd_GEOCOLOR_24fr_20220927-2055.gif" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif;">Yes, you guys in Newfoundland have clouds from Hurricane Ian as well! </span><p></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">The circulation is still strong throughout the troposphere, but the lower levels are being impacted by that wind shear. If Ian continues to deteriorate, he may be a weak cat 2/strong cat 1 on landfall. Regardless of what he is at landfall, because Florida is a flat and soggy state with Lake Okeechobee in the middle and the Everglades to the south, he will only go down one level by the time he crosses the state - so if he's a cat 2 at landfall, he will be close to a cat 1 on the other side. </span></span></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">And despite the wind and intensity, at landfall there will still be storm surge...</span></span></p><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;"><Science Alert!> <u>Storm surge</u> is water rising along the coastline as a storm approaches and makes landfall. How high the storm surge is depends on a number of factors: </div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;"><br /></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;">1. Storms are low pressure systems, which means that there is low atmospheric pressure. But obviously we don't have a "gap" between the air and the ocean (which are both fluids - one gas and one liquid), so the water 'rises' up to fill that 'gap' which is created by the low atmospheric pressure. So the stronger the storm is, the lower the central pressure, the greater the 'gap' for the water to rise to 'fill'. </div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;"><br /></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;">2. Storms are low pressure systems, so in the northern hemisphere they rotate in an anticlockwise direction. This means generally water will be pushed onshore on the eastern side of the eye (depending on land orientation), and will be pushed off shore on the western side. Storm surge will be higher on the eastern side. Or in this case, on shore south of the eye and off shore north of the eye.</div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;"><br /></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;">3. Speed of the storm. If a storm is moving quickly, then there is simply less time for water to get pushed onshore before the storm has swung by. Storm surge is greater for slower storms. </div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;"><br /></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;">4. Angle of storm approach to land. Depending on if a storm is approaching land directly or at an angle can affect the amount of storm surge because of the direction of the winds. Storms that are heading directly onto shore result in greater storm surge than those that are approaching it from an angle - skirting along the coastline. </div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;"><br /></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;">5. Shape of coastline (bays etc). Water can get piled into bays and upstream in estuaries of course. </div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;"><br /></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;">6. The depth of the seafloor just off the coast is important. For areas with a shallow seafloor, more water piles up compared to areas where the seafloor is deep just off the coast. </div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;"><br /></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;"><End Science Alert!></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;"><br /></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;">To monitor storm surge, I use NOAA's tidesandcurrents website (instructions for this website are in the <Technical Alert!> in <a href="https://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/2021/07/tropical-storm-elsa-6-july-update-a.html" style="color: blue;">this post</a>). At the moment, Key West is already seeing 2 ft above normal levels:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEinWF_aVNlcJJMlpLK53J7pKu0BpkcznijEkxBu0BP-rK1_tTloxHpO1NAwUo1xke3hvOjiDiiZga7qa_jczvMqwULglitXEpcdz0Wb6-CKmv0Kdf-vzexOKbmusonz1ov4p7MGp9OlctMXULWPUDNIqlWow0iRhjQeMzuimRUqP10MMuZA_w/s1472/Screen%20Shot%202022-09-27%20at%206.29.57%20PM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="974" data-original-width="1472" height="265" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEinWF_aVNlcJJMlpLK53J7pKu0BpkcznijEkxBu0BP-rK1_tTloxHpO1NAwUo1xke3hvOjiDiiZga7qa_jczvMqwULglitXEpcdz0Wb6-CKmv0Kdf-vzexOKbmusonz1ov4p7MGp9OlctMXULWPUDNIqlWow0iRhjQeMzuimRUqP10MMuZA_w/w400-h265/Screen%20Shot%202022-09-27%20at%206.29.57%20PM.png" width="400" /></a></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;"><br /></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;"><br /></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;">Naples, still to the north of the center, is actually slightly below normal:</div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8jYeKTqYV07WuREdgJAxul79jieAi3-KLueM46jTCA50qhg4BnVGSUEySVqkqmuptr8J0S5-95IOxvu0a1zTyGTez4cXA2kc-sUnwLtnIskfNMWrNspntdZNnDzzTVN3ePdPCFWdf6swYfZpbK3GPmUEbkQ-EX0q66XMWMhr0WLDRxVyYWw/s1474/Screen%20Shot%202022-09-27%20at%206.29.33%20PM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="982" data-original-width="1474" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8jYeKTqYV07WuREdgJAxul79jieAi3-KLueM46jTCA50qhg4BnVGSUEySVqkqmuptr8J0S5-95IOxvu0a1zTyGTez4cXA2kc-sUnwLtnIskfNMWrNspntdZNnDzzTVN3ePdPCFWdf6swYfZpbK3GPmUEbkQ-EX0q66XMWMhr0WLDRxVyYWw/w400-h266/Screen%20Shot%202022-09-27%20at%206.29.33%20PM.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;">And St. Pete levels, even farther north, are dropping as the storm gets closer:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjXMpt4ZlKISndrybhhLIcJkmqNDmh0Jq7pTt05m5AOl9bqKXA3-ZcvZpG7fVCqSRDN_o3iZ_pjscoEukZOxNE8wxso5QX2TTzF7dKYJoGV6aOEUkuHSNRxDnaKGhMwPaaXRkNHaPm7XvpdrIPsnIFT6RPcbL3E98HUCOcEsEUDCnc-QZBzg/s1472/Screen%20Shot%202022-09-27%20at%206.30.38%20PM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="980" data-original-width="1472" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjXMpt4ZlKISndrybhhLIcJkmqNDmh0Jq7pTt05m5AOl9bqKXA3-ZcvZpG7fVCqSRDN_o3iZ_pjscoEukZOxNE8wxso5QX2TTzF7dKYJoGV6aOEUkuHSNRxDnaKGhMwPaaXRkNHaPm7XvpdrIPsnIFT6RPcbL3E98HUCOcEsEUDCnc-QZBzg/w400-h266/Screen%20Shot%202022-09-27%20at%206.30.38%20PM.png" width="400" /></a></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif;">And I know my friends are</span><span style="font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif;"> taking it seriously in Florida when the hurricane supplies move beyond water and wine... </span></div><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiThN3z-_lcB64Qscv3FEtf1rnUbMRBJxg3kcqLjmtHYq98QzaXfi9dN5xQUkq9MyPy1V4CLFgE3xj7DsTTrDZ697gCPOi4PvXONjoquyKrEMRkZ9mxoTr-Bq0j67LOlb_r0-GPNaUghCMHANRugJ-GE2OEMy1I5PKUvun-bgBlyTR1kSGWLQ/s640/IMG_2889.JPEG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="480" data-original-width="640" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiThN3z-_lcB64Qscv3FEtf1rnUbMRBJxg3kcqLjmtHYq98QzaXfi9dN5xQUkq9MyPy1V4CLFgE3xj7DsTTrDZ697gCPOi4PvXONjoquyKrEMRkZ9mxoTr-Bq0j67LOlb_r0-GPNaUghCMHANRugJ-GE2OEMy1I5PKUvun-bgBlyTR1kSGWLQ/s320/IMG_2889.JPEG" width="320" /></a></div><br class="Apple-interchange-newline" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif; font-size: 16px;">Be safe out there - listen to your local emergency managers!</span><p></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif; font-size: 16px;">Ciao,</span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif; font-size: 16px;">J.</span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif; font-size: 16px;">Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/</span></p><div class="post-body entry-content" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px 0px 0.75em;"><div class="post-body entry-content" style="line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px 0px 0.75em;"><div style="line-height: 20.8px; margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Twitter @JyovianStorm</span></span></div><div style="line-height: 20.8px; margin: 0in;"><span style="font-size: medium;">--------------------------------------</span></div><div class="post-body entry-content" style="line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px 0px 0.75em;"><p><span style="font-size: medium;">DISCLAIMER:</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.</span></p><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div></div></div></div>Jyohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13799343640305859521noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34244528.post-12865840323054621982022-09-26T20:39:00.003-04:002022-09-27T11:50:21.130-04:00September 26, Update A: Hurricane Ian<p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif; font-size: 16px;">Time for a look at the game afoot with my afternoon cup of tea here.</span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif; font-size: 16px;">Hurricane Ian. Are you ready? Got your ice cream stocked up?</span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif; font-size: 16px;">Track: he is at 20.3N, 83.2W, heading NNW at 13mph. The track forecast did move to the east and is taking him to the west coast of Florida, close to the Tampa Bay area (and where this blog started in the first place, so I have a lot of peeps in that area, some of whom are evacuating I have heard): </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgzG7pyZ55hZuHPok9L1Dwjt-ivKPqeafd96Wbi5cx5xteIJWK4sTBwDwqzxIFo1tQfB3mjIm7gz2ejJng6Y50HdyuA1htxAQU33owkp2ivz7lulQdgVA8_maLGSV-4gcNH8uG2_TQBLw2gpFtnn3DDVQm6UIaEFpzAxDSs1ZCy18br8-mqbw/s897/223342_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind_Ian.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="736" data-original-width="897" height="526" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgzG7pyZ55hZuHPok9L1Dwjt-ivKPqeafd96Wbi5cx5xteIJWK4sTBwDwqzxIFo1tQfB3mjIm7gz2ejJng6Y50HdyuA1htxAQU33owkp2ivz7lulQdgVA8_maLGSV-4gcNH8uG2_TQBLw2gpFtnn3DDVQm6UIaEFpzAxDSs1ZCy18br8-mqbw/w640-h526/223342_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind_Ian.png" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif; font-size: 16px;">I can see why the track looks like it does - there is a high pressure building to the right of the track before it gets to Florida (remember, storms go clockwise around a high pressure system), which is why they think he will move a little more in the NNW direction before curving around it to the NNE. But, very crucially, where he makes landfall relative to Tampa Bay - north or south of the Bay - will make a huge difference. </span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif; font-size: 16px;">Why? That's because the storm is a low pressure system, so the winds are pushing water around it in a counterclockwise (anticlockwise) direction. </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif; font-size: 16px;">If he lands to the south (corrected from earlier when I had north written here - thanks to Steve M. for catching this!), the water will mostly get pushed out of the Bay - or along the Pinellas County side for a short while. </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif; font-size: 16px;">If he lands to the north of the Bay, the water is going to get pushed into Tampa Bay (and on shore along all bays and coastline to the south) - and along with the water from the rain, it will take a long time for the Bay to drain so the water can take a while to decrease. The same thing applies in Sarasota and other areas along the southwest coast of Florida.</span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif; font-size: 16px;">For storms, remember - run from the water, hide from the winds. The greatest loss of life in a tropical cyclone is from water (storm surge, flooding etc), not from the winds. SO... if you are in an area that floods under normal rainfall, or if you are near a river bank, please evacuate sooner rather than later - I am sure your local emergency managers are saying the same thing. Otherwise, if this was a cat 4 or 5 storm, I would also evacuate if I could. </span></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">I think he may move a little more the east than expected - meaning a landfall in the southern part of the cone of uncertainty (between - Tampa Bay and Naples) we will know more tomorrow of course. </span></span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif; font-size: 16px;">Itensity: He is now officially a mid-size cat 2 storm with winds of 100mph (Cat 2 range: 96-110mph), central pressure 972mb. I think he may be factionally weaker than this (maybe 95mph based on his satellite appearance) and I know they say rapid intensification, but I think he was a cat 1 yesterday so in my head it's not been so rapid. He is turning into a good looking storm:</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxKkjbb27pLKgE7S780KtEKjwwy93YZX9I2eTQzg1s2zRjwj2djey61Q8UAuEWNTbeEz-RiTja_r4USoGYPBYFdyEj_WbYGqPxtbHegskmvo0Nqz7i52WHRQDJFuZVEyOQW4nisqRSlyybJ7NNUUVicRG836QWkQLMDSA98jgbOvOYukXnbQ/s1000/floater_floater_AL092022_GEOCOLOR_24fr_20220926-2020.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1000" data-original-width="1000" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxKkjbb27pLKgE7S780KtEKjwwy93YZX9I2eTQzg1s2zRjwj2djey61Q8UAuEWNTbeEz-RiTja_r4USoGYPBYFdyEj_WbYGqPxtbHegskmvo0Nqz7i52WHRQDJFuZVEyOQW4nisqRSlyybJ7NNUUVicRG836QWkQLMDSA98jgbOvOYukXnbQ/w640-h640/floater_floater_AL092022_GEOCOLOR_24fr_20220926-2020.gif" width="640" /></a></div><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif; font-size: 16px;">And the convection has really picked up today so Cuba and part of South Florida and the Bahamas are already getting bunches of rain and thundery weather... </span><p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhZkhyUp_BmgaNvEoY1DP6XGBKPAVDAjuvosYzBj61m4WxuOEl0vc7jLP3H1YnPpgwxLBFvJQE5_ozSo7QG_QbRle_FyzG9YIoUa8-f8v0eg9LHB7a4kA04Q5drr8OwyXRVAHr-VjrgokGZR3Ckc3hRu6Qbnd6Ckw_nkusrqUz6DIBM085_Gg/s1000/floater_floater_AL092022_band11_48fr_20220926-2018.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1000" data-original-width="1000" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhZkhyUp_BmgaNvEoY1DP6XGBKPAVDAjuvosYzBj61m4WxuOEl0vc7jLP3H1YnPpgwxLBFvJQE5_ozSo7QG_QbRle_FyzG9YIoUa8-f8v0eg9LHB7a4kA04Q5drr8OwyXRVAHr-VjrgokGZR3Ckc3hRu6Qbnd6Ckw_nkusrqUz6DIBM085_Gg/w640-h640/floater_floater_AL092022_band11_48fr_20220926-2018.gif" width="640" /></a></div><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif; font-size: 16px;"><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif; font-size: 16px;">But you will see that large parts of the storm are still in that green range - including around the center of circulation - which is why I think he may just about be a cat 2 storm. Also, interestingly, the strongest convection is to the south and diminishes in his northern flank - it hasn't yet fully wrapped around his center. This is partly because he is starting to interact with Cuba (which will help to keep his intensity down a bit) and partly because although the sea surface temperatures are warm, the warm water is really deepest on his southern side. </span></p>For those of you who want to see the spinach he's been eating to make him stronger, this is for you...</span><p></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif; font-size: 16px;"><Science and Forecasting Alert!> </span><u style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;">The Loop Current (System)</u><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;">. </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;">The Loop Current is part of an ocean current system that flows from the Caribbean into the Gulf of Mexico through the Yucatan Strait, and then out of the Gulf of Mexico through the Straits of Florida, and up the east coast of the US. How far it extends into the Gulf of Mexico varies from year to year and month to month. As this current flows around Florida, it changes name to become the Florida Current. Then as it flows up the east coast, it changes name again and is known as the Gulf Stream. It leaves the US east coast around North Carolina and flows across the north Atlantic to the UK. Why is this current system important for tropical storms? This current system is well known because it has the deepest warm waters, and is very fast flowing - but the current also has offspring that can also have deep warm waters (all these offspring are called Eddy by the way). The deep warm waters mean that tropical storms that pass over any part of this current system or over any warm water Eddies have a jolly good (British understatement) chance of becoming stronger. </span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;">So, how can you see where these areas are? One of the places I look is buried within the vast network of websites that NOAA - the Office of Satellite and Product Operations has a site called Satellite Heat Content Suite (such a catchy name - made for a song lyric I'm sure! ;-)). I use the North Atlantic page: </span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif;"><a href="https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/ohc_natl.html">https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/ohc_natl.html</a>. If you click on this, you will see all sorts of maps. The two most useful for our purposes is the one on the top left - Sea Surface Temperature - which looks like this today: </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLeTzb6i69xfTKyiYJBUNRaBkX6C9-gSjLqv9bk7t7HS4hdJh1ph-amLB0OczGZEGYJOG_SkzYR7nH8IvX7YxHlistT9gA0-IEDFkLM-NAGpKeV4IPKmJ-ndVvIHTuxkT5FYeVn5FxGMuPPC58GjXhrVbkyQ8e-Vo8g4dRjPXB0tgjg2MIqw/s1800/Screen%20Shot%202022-09-26%20at%205.13.55%20PM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1288" data-original-width="1800" height="458" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLeTzb6i69xfTKyiYJBUNRaBkX6C9-gSjLqv9bk7t7HS4hdJh1ph-amLB0OczGZEGYJOG_SkzYR7nH8IvX7YxHlistT9gA0-IEDFkLM-NAGpKeV4IPKmJ-ndVvIHTuxkT5FYeVn5FxGMuPPC58GjXhrVbkyQ8e-Vo8g4dRjPXB0tgjg2MIqw/w640-h458/Screen%20Shot%202022-09-26%20at%205.13.55%20PM.png" width="640" /></a></div><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif;">You can see that the waters where Ian is are over 29 deg C. The other most useful map (more so than the sea surface temperatures) is the depth of the 26 deg C Isotherm - third one down in the right column and that looks like this today:</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhODwjnqV5C1o5TXixWblDaVDxy_TExpIq-kKmi638TNj6Fq_ZAXnsJmjvM46KSQMEgGLr7xCwQwUZVP857WIPD0XjI7vKud6xF_LV-j5GBIhUUO2mQyq_a-1IMnTATDUsvMlar-JrL3HX5fTiiPPOTKu1izdIz78DVPY0ukZDmQ9LYGJKmcQ/s1860/Screen%20Shot%202022-09-26%20at%205.16.04%20PM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1282" data-original-width="1860" height="442" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhODwjnqV5C1o5TXixWblDaVDxy_TExpIq-kKmi638TNj6Fq_ZAXnsJmjvM46KSQMEgGLr7xCwQwUZVP857WIPD0XjI7vKud6xF_LV-j5GBIhUUO2mQyq_a-1IMnTATDUsvMlar-JrL3HX5fTiiPPOTKu1izdIz78DVPY0ukZDmQ9LYGJKmcQ/w640-h442/Screen%20Shot%202022-09-26%20at%205.16.04%20PM.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif;">From this, we can see that Ian has been passing over that area of orange just south of Cuba - this is where the upper 150-160m of water is warmer than 26 deg C! No wonder he picked up some convection. </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;"><End Science and Forecasting Alert></span><p></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif; font-size: 16px;">Going forward, there is a possibility that he is not a major hurricane when he makes landfall in Cuba - by the time he is a cat 3 we should see the eye more clearly - actually, if he's a cat 2 with 100mph winds, we should see the eye appear once in a while and I don't see that in the visible imagery. If he doesn't make landfall in Cuba as a major storm, then crossing Cuba will knock him down a bit. However, as he emerges, he will be over warm deep water again (as you can see in the map above - depending on the path he takes, it may not be for long so he may not get quite as strong again. All the models are showing that he will get stronger on the other side of Cuba of course, but we will see. The thing I'll be looking for is that eye and how strong he is when he gets to Cuba.</span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif; font-size: 16px;">Stay safe out there - get ready - listen to your local emergency managers - eat ice cream - drink wine - Don't Panic! - be good! </span></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">Ciao for now,<br /></span></span></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">J.</span></span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif; font-size: 16px;">Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/</span></p><div class="post-body entry-content" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px 0px 0.75em;"><div class="post-body entry-content" style="line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px 0px 0.75em;"><div style="line-height: 20.8px; margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Twitter @JyovianStorm</span></span></div><div style="line-height: 20.8px; margin: 0in;"><span style="font-size: medium;">--------------------------------------</span></div><div class="post-body entry-content" style="line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px 0px 0.75em;"><p><span style="font-size: medium;">DISCLAIMER:</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.</span></p><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div></div></div></div>Jyohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13799343640305859521noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34244528.post-56373113534011676622022-09-25T17:15:00.010-04:002022-09-25T17:25:31.849-04:00September 25, Update A: Tropical Storm Ian (mostly)<p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><b>Tropical Storm Ian </b></span></span></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">Jumping in first with Tropical Storm Ian who is in the Caribbean at 16.2N, 80.3W and heading WNW at 12mph. As expected, he has started to shift northward compared to his westward motion over the last couple of days however his track forecast after ~2 days is really, alas, still quite uncertain.</span></span></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"></span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgr_klZChNe5vjJYXXEE17dQf2fsbH31FDyZlHqWDW-MvR5ums6iLWlmiZabv0oCc6cKKvndNev7oj9LBzVpdoRalP93absjrJrmFoAddY0l4RlxxN0Awel-HlspBeTlhh2MA-tsJJy-EzRatAgEnTxsAxjl7jIyPq0zpfm0Ne5pCLUV3bLBA/s897/205917_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="736" data-original-width="897" height="526" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgr_klZChNe5vjJYXXEE17dQf2fsbH31FDyZlHqWDW-MvR5ums6iLWlmiZabv0oCc6cKKvndNev7oj9LBzVpdoRalP93absjrJrmFoAddY0l4RlxxN0Awel-HlspBeTlhh2MA-tsJJy-EzRatAgEnTxsAxjl7jIyPq0zpfm0Ne5pCLUV3bLBA/w640-h526/205917_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png" width="640" /></a></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"><br /></span></div><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif;">That high to his north has cleared up quite a bit now, so he may shift a little more to the east again, but 3-4 days is a lot time so he could go anywhere in that cone, not only where the center is at the moment. </span><p></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif;">He is still officially a weak TS with winds of 45mph, central pressure 1003mb (TS range: 39-73mph). I think he may be a bit stronger than this - possibly a mid-level Tropical Storm with winds of around 55-60mph because there is good circulation in the lower half of the troposphere and it is also improving in the upper troposphere (which happens as a storm gets close to hurricane strength) - you can see his center very clearly in the visible satellite imagery: </span></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiMi1yS23kMQ4KynyBvCVNw81rnQ03mVYDjvz4F3ZJbajtTitV42jGuTsMwz9AOe3P3Ul_t8ZSQW_C8ozSiw4pTe9-IHIzx_GzGzThg-XgPsGSEijIy7FKr5I4Be2TPg-GxrkGbP6ZqNuv1VtAGsxT7Xlf8CIqs1g_bWonopyfVL4tpaKnRuA/s1000/floater_floater_AL092022_GEOCOLOR_24fr_20220925-1547.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1000" data-original-width="1000" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiMi1yS23kMQ4KynyBvCVNw81rnQ03mVYDjvz4F3ZJbajtTitV42jGuTsMwz9AOe3P3Ul_t8ZSQW_C8ozSiw4pTe9-IHIzx_GzGzThg-XgPsGSEijIy7FKr5I4Be2TPg-GxrkGbP6ZqNuv1VtAGsxT7Xlf8CIqs1g_bWonopyfVL4tpaKnRuA/w640-h640/floater_floater_AL092022_GEOCOLOR_24fr_20220925-1547.gif" width="640" /></a></span></div><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif;"><p>The heavier convection (rain and stuff) has increased a little since last night, but other than some clouds, it is still not fully wrapped around his center of circulation:</p></span><p></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjCOIX7g1IoVAA2Fr6sbE7erAWyWqq6kU-ZCk91PsPnC_GlyLbhfaReIxgvbKcgYgOsmt7SEZgtrlNnhEZ6C8Mm5V2HPjXorVnh45sEF-Pg-dKVwJjd4oXsrHn8BinxCJmSVlMYNai47KFGl618cpYBvS-fAgbj8MTUMWuAwaGaMwtCJQdsoA/s1000/floater_floater_AL092022_band11_24fr_20220925-1546.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1000" data-original-width="1000" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjCOIX7g1IoVAA2Fr6sbE7erAWyWqq6kU-ZCk91PsPnC_GlyLbhfaReIxgvbKcgYgOsmt7SEZgtrlNnhEZ6C8Mm5V2HPjXorVnh45sEF-Pg-dKVwJjd4oXsrHn8BinxCJmSVlMYNai47KFGl618cpYBvS-fAgbj8MTUMWuAwaGaMwtCJQdsoA/w640-h640/floater_floater_AL092022_band11_24fr_20220925-1546.gif" width="640" /></a></span></div><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"><br /><span style="background-color: white;">Although the sea surface temperature is warm (over 29 deg C) and water warmer than 26 deg C is in the upper 100m of the water column, it does look like there is some dry air in this system which is coming in from the northwest which is one factor keeping him in check. This is the satellite imagery of water vapor in the lower levels of the troposphere - the yellow areas are dry air. </span></span><p></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhXIe1fnefUjiK653oyyGPq4a38CufJRtLu-XxSulzvZydEgsTNeARPwZUthVoU0diIw9khmFkbUoSZguCyCuP97csjI463w1KGI1Tg4nJz0g0LaMAE3BJHq7Lr8_xvjydwJNEh5LdF7Sekg8L3HqAPIjGLacoEMvDrq-5Xoq-SLt9dWrKraQ/s1000/floater_floater_AL092022_band10_48fr_20220925-1628.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1000" data-original-width="1000" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhXIe1fnefUjiK653oyyGPq4a38CufJRtLu-XxSulzvZydEgsTNeARPwZUthVoU0diIw9khmFkbUoSZguCyCuP97csjI463w1KGI1Tg4nJz0g0LaMAE3BJHq7Lr8_xvjydwJNEh5LdF7Sekg8L3HqAPIjGLacoEMvDrq-5Xoq-SLt9dWrKraQ/w640-h640/floater_floater_AL092022_band10_48fr_20220925-1628.gif" width="640" /></a></span></div><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"><br /><span style="background-color: white;">You can see from this that the water vapor is increasing near his center of circulation, but it was dry before that increase (shown by the purple parts). </span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif;">So, with increasing water vapor, warm ocean waters, and almost no wind shear, he will continue to intensify some more today as forecast (although I don't think it will be as rapid as forecast because I think he is already stronger than the official forecast).</span><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">Looking ahead, his intensity depends on the track he takes:</span></span></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">Eastern path/less intense storm possible: If he remains to the eastern side of that cone, he will pass over land (Cuba) and then only briefly over the deep warm waters of the Loop Current/Florida Current, so he won't intensify too much and may not even become a major hurricane (cat 3 or higher). </span></span></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">Western path/more intense storm possible: On the other hand, if he stays on the western side of that cone of uncertainty, he may only just skim over Cuba and will spend longer over the deeper warm waters of the Loop Current which will give him a lot more energy to get more intense and he could become a major hurricane. </span></span></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">However, in either case, when he does reach the northern Gulf, the water temperatures there are around 28 deg C, but that warm water doesn't extend very deep into the water (across the entire northern Gulf) - only the top ~40m or so are warmer than 26 deg C. The forecast also calls for an increase in wind shear by the time Ian gets into the northern Gulf, so at the moment it is unlikely that the storm will be a major one by the time he actually makes landfall in the US. </span></span></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><b>Post-Tropical Storm Fiona</b></span></span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif;">A quick note to wrap up on Post-Tropical Storm Fiona - Canada is assessing the quite extensive damage from Fiona which was because she was a merger of a tropical storm and a front, so there was a lot of energy in this storm. Not necessarily the tornadoes and crazy thunder/lighting you get in a strong hurricane, but she did bring some very strong winds because of that energy (with the highest measured wind gusts of ~111mph) which resulted in downed trees and power outages. </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif;">She also had the lowest pressure for a storm reaching Canada, with a recorded low pressure of 931mb on land. H</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif;">er storm surge was also substantial and washed houses out to sea - here's a </span><a href="https://twitter.com/DonnieOK/status/1573712702589079554" style="font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif;">tweet</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif;"> of one of many videos doing the rounds on the internet that shows the storm surge first hitting the coastline. I think t</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif;">his is one of the strongest storms Canada has seen in decades - if not a century! </span></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">More later my peeps,</span></span></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">J.</span></span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif; font-size: 16px;">Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/</span></p><div class="post-body entry-content" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px 0px 0.75em;"><div class="post-body entry-content" style="line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px 0px 0.75em;"><div style="line-height: 20.8px; margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Twitter @JyovianStorm</span></span></div><div style="line-height: 20.8px; margin: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="line-height: 20.8px; margin: 0in;"><span style="font-size: medium;">--------------------------------------</span></div><div class="post-body entry-content" style="line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px 0px 0.75em;"><p><span style="font-size: medium;">DISCLAIMER:</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.</span></p></div></div></div>Jyohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13799343640305859521noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34244528.post-30458976744033657892022-09-25T01:06:00.003-04:002022-09-25T01:17:12.528-04:00September 24, Update A: Tropical Storm Ian<p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif; font-size: 16px;">Today it's all About A Boy called Ian, although there are a few other names still floating around:</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjerMq_Dv16cZgPMh7YoaVSI3FM0PHZ0bYvj_XC7vmRaXzUnzx7FqhSHq_XUgdwjEZgNzW7z5FJ2M9Z3vbHOMiGFD2bEC3R5WzsoQPL8BQZVxRErac2E6vI6D3SfUCpYAu3p_DDKG6fq26w49Syl2CUkqO7gVNDVyoiSooRqCRVJO2KuUMVMQ/s900/two_atl_0d0_092422.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="601" data-original-width="900" height="428" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjerMq_Dv16cZgPMh7YoaVSI3FM0PHZ0bYvj_XC7vmRaXzUnzx7FqhSHq_XUgdwjEZgNzW7z5FJ2M9Z3vbHOMiGFD2bEC3R5WzsoQPL8BQZVxRErac2E6vI6D3SfUCpYAu3p_DDKG6fq26w49Syl2CUkqO7gVNDVyoiSooRqCRVJO2KuUMVMQ/w640-h428/two_atl_0d0_092422.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">But Fiona and Gaston are on the decline, and Hermine is now just a Tropical Depression, so that leaves...</span></span><p></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><b>Tropical Storm Ian</b></span></span></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">He is currently at 14.7N, 77.7W, heading W at 13mph. He continued on a more westward track than forecast yesterday because the high pressure to his north remained strong. I don't have good data on the pressure fields anymore but it looks like the high pressure to his north may be starting to weaken he may start to move a little towards the north soon. </span></span></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh2Cv0oOFPYjbf5BJKwtubDQrYbt4KPhYCsc8xUFK9qOtIsV72kKWn-I2xX1llws-ymjQ5JSs_w5OjQ8kHaNrQNClFoTpY7HUHjbEN08bP9qiGTY6x5shSK9s-ssiszl8fjLIfpZBSISYgLeGO7EAaVlzAaWR-W2OekE0-57f2nyona5J4c6g/s897/025428_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="736" data-original-width="897" height="526" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh2Cv0oOFPYjbf5BJKwtubDQrYbt4KPhYCsc8xUFK9qOtIsV72kKWn-I2xX1llws-ymjQ5JSs_w5OjQ8kHaNrQNClFoTpY7HUHjbEN08bP9qiGTY6x5shSK9s-ssiszl8fjLIfpZBSISYgLeGO7EAaVlzAaWR-W2OekE0-57f2nyona5J4c6g/w640-h526/025428_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png" width="640" /></a></span></div><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;">In case you are wondering why the NHC (who are using models) are sure he will make that WNW and then NW turn, despite him taking a more westward track than expected for today, let me tell you why... </span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"><Science Alert!> <u>Storm tracks:</u> In the northern hemisphere 'things' (technical jargon ;-)) tend to move clockwise around high pressure systems, and counter-clockwise around low pressure systems. For example, a tropical storm has low pressure in the center so winds (aka 'things') move counter-clockwise (or anticlockwise if you prefer) around a storm. Similarly, tropical storms (aka 'things') also move around larger pressure systems. There is generally a region of high pressure that likes to hang out over the Atlantic, sometimes called the Bermuda High or the Bermuda-Azores High. You can imagine it as a big clock face over the Atlantic, like this:</span></p><p></p><p class="mobile-photo" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px; text-align: left;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhyeQqTZyLHIokr0PKaCAa48chdpW90Sprd2rzT_9PSIS-MSL-tIgR3GgJOfEFJkoE4goS8Gq8_Mq597uOWYOI_hsis6j5MFzR6YNxdLBkeRZdzkH5_Jc5VQukh7xvfYjrSYazY/s1600/Clock_Atlantic-786572.png" style="color: blue; text-decoration-line: none;"><img border="0" height="230" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5898831722006054882" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhyeQqTZyLHIokr0PKaCAa48chdpW90Sprd2rzT_9PSIS-MSL-tIgR3GgJOfEFJkoE4goS8Gq8_Mq597uOWYOI_hsis6j5MFzR6YNxdLBkeRZdzkH5_Jc5VQukh7xvfYjrSYazY/w400-h230/Clock_Atlantic-786572.png" style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 4px;" width="400" /></a></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;"></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;">(Image credit: Moi!)</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;">As storms cross the ocean, they move westward along the six o'clock region. As they turn WNW and NW they are moving from 6 to 9. Then they move N and NE, from 9 to 12. Of course, this imaginary clock face isn't nice and round, nor does it stay in the same place (otherwise forecasting the track would be easy peasy :-)). It's like a Dali clock face, with wiggly bits (more technical jargon ;-)) that are always moving:</p><p class="mobile-photo" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjrrVN_4xTAomN91gyzOlbEusc3oCPLebXvKGj4_-L3jStPup8bhne-CkS-OzqP0FIXoXxAqJf1ChUMbXbx6KjW6nyw_EgtxDDrHuG06VScYa3Jwexp9hqmm8fELPeHc6dcRkM8/s1600/Dali_clock1-788308.jpg" style="color: blue; text-decoration-line: none;"><img alt="" border="0" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5898831729316119554" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjrrVN_4xTAomN91gyzOlbEusc3oCPLebXvKGj4_-L3jStPup8bhne-CkS-OzqP0FIXoXxAqJf1ChUMbXbx6KjW6nyw_EgtxDDrHuG06VScYa3Jwexp9hqmm8fELPeHc6dcRkM8/s320/Dali_clock1-788308.jpg" style="border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 4px;" /></a></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;">Sometimes this high pressure stays out in the Atlantic and we don’t see many storms making landfall, and at other times the high pressure extends across the Caribbean and storms end up in Central America instead of turning north. In Ian's case, there is a high pressure to his north, which means he continued westward. However, as that weakens, he will start to move clockwise around that. </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;">The NHC track forecast is based on the output from a number of models, and these track models are all trying to predict the changes in the pressure fields around the world which is why they are all a little different - depending on how they do that prediction. The pressure field really is quite complicated - it's not only how it changes horizontally but also how it changes vertically that needs to be considered. To show you how complicated this is, here is a representation of the pressure field in the middle of the troposphere (around 5km above the surface of the Earth):</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKqw5I6ojlxDl6bQgVQqDl2hn71sNEqdQaNVdgHbjes6d4TJ2Filssop_ZuHUImTcb4qibF4n_Nf0_Xt86S6RNR_VZR9IiDSED64oIRXfmcKoUKq5P4wgnw29Rg_Ud0BJoub-Yj0ybA9QgThs-wJOxfJqG46BQZF8kPwiYLEQJexIXOo-kGw/s1728/QTUA11%20(2).tiff" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1478" data-original-width="1728" height="549" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKqw5I6ojlxDl6bQgVQqDl2hn71sNEqdQaNVdgHbjes6d4TJ2Filssop_ZuHUImTcb4qibF4n_Nf0_Xt86S6RNR_VZR9IiDSED64oIRXfmcKoUKq5P4wgnw29Rg_Ud0BJoub-Yj0ybA9QgThs-wJOxfJqG46BQZF8kPwiYLEQJexIXOo-kGw/w640-h549/QTUA11%20(2).tiff" width="640" /></a></div><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;">As you see, lots of squiggles that are all wiggling about at the same time! </span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif;"><End of Science Alert!></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif;">As for his intensity, at the moment his winds are only 50mph, central pressure 1002 mb which means he is still a relatively weak Tropical Storm (TS range: 39-73mph). The two main factors for intensity at the moment are wind shear and water temperature (the air is fairly humid around him and he isn't near any land so those two aren't at play today). </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif;">Water temperature: Ian</span><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif;"> is</span><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif;"> currently </span><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif;">over the toasty waters of the Caribbean with sea surface temperatures over 29 deg C, however in an area where only the upper 50m of the water column is warmer than 26 deg C which is why his convection is not very strong - especially to the south of the circulation where the water is a little cooler. But soon he will be moving over an area where the upper 100m of the water column is warmer than 26 deg C and that will really help him to intensify tomorrow, and by Monday, he'll be over a region with sea surface temperatures warmer than 30 deg C with the upper 150m is warmer than 26 deg C - that is when he is expected to become a major hurricane. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif;">Wind Shear: </span><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif;">He also hasn't intensified a lot today because of wind shear but this is decreasing and everything else is in favour of his intensification tomorrow. Until earlier today, his convection was not in the same location as the circulation, however that has now come into alignment... </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjSrPM9N3bFftuB-nA2wwMZPNu6qHFRWlGDxEwiDxQSkGmvG4Pv2TDeZ_qeJ-hnvdQus31PRvrU9WLEUpdlOyEcUcKK62igVSb5wd_If565NW-UJ6DlZv0WZzIKArkmUexZvHWfrTYaScFST8mDep_99sTHd7Mj7sn2wSxSZWwg63vdEkq9JQ/s1000/floater_floater_AL092022_band11_24fr_20220925-0047.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1000" data-original-width="1000" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjSrPM9N3bFftuB-nA2wwMZPNu6qHFRWlGDxEwiDxQSkGmvG4Pv2TDeZ_qeJ-hnvdQus31PRvrU9WLEUpdlOyEcUcKK62igVSb5wd_If565NW-UJ6DlZv0WZzIKArkmUexZvHWfrTYaScFST8mDep_99sTHd7Mj7sn2wSxSZWwg63vdEkq9JQ/w640-h640/floater_floater_AL092022_band11_24fr_20220925-0047.gif" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif;">His circulation is pretty good in the lower half of the troposphere and I do now see some circulation in the upper levels of the troposphere now which suggests that he is already stronger than the 50mph winds would suggest. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif;">I agree with the NHC forecast that he will intensify tomorrow. They think he'll be a cat 1 storm by this time tomorrow and I think he may be a little faster than that and become a cat 1 storm a bit earlier in the day - but either way, he'll become a bit better looking tomorrow. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif;">Although the track at less than 5 days is really uncertain (3/4 of the State of Florida is currently in the Cone of Uncertainty), I know you will be ready in Florida and the northern Gulf coast... </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-size: 16px;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMtKreUnfUbIOrsb1bRyiZZMsojC49SK8Ld69o9HKW5k5cJSCkpk1i_YVyz7k7i_pwhHAJNuURdL_xGnlJaDp5kgwSJwxgDmk9yZTdZFUSudQnpdmvwR3JOwSafdkDJIAhTcOiNbyNBSakajeWRQAuwYxa84UcR8vizo5cRm85jBMszJXU3g/s546/Meanwhile%20in%20FL.jpeg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="546" data-original-width="540" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMtKreUnfUbIOrsb1bRyiZZMsojC49SK8Ld69o9HKW5k5cJSCkpk1i_YVyz7k7i_pwhHAJNuURdL_xGnlJaDp5kgwSJwxgDmk9yZTdZFUSudQnpdmvwR3JOwSafdkDJIAhTcOiNbyNBSakajeWRQAuwYxa84UcR8vizo5cRm85jBMszJXU3g/s320/Meanwhile%20in%20FL.jpeg" width="316" /></a></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif;">Ciao for now,</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;">J. </span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif; font-size: 16px;">Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/</span></p><div class="post-body entry-content" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px 0px 0.75em;"><div class="post-body entry-content" style="line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px 0px 0.75em;"><div style="line-height: 20.8px; margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Twitter @JyovianStorm</span></span></div><div style="line-height: 20.8px; margin: 0in;"><span style="font-size: medium;">--------------------------------------</span></div><div class="post-body entry-content" style="line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px 0px 0.75em;"><p><span style="font-size: medium;">DISCLAIMER:</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.</span></p><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div></div></div><div style="clear: both;"></div></div><div class="post-footer" style="background-color: white; color: #999999; font-family: "Trebuchet MS", Trebuchet, Arial, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12.48px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; letter-spacing: 0.1em; line-height: 1.4em; margin: 0.75em 0px; text-transform: uppercase;"></div>Jyohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13799343640305859521noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34244528.post-9678764154352361912022-09-24T00:53:00.000-04:002022-09-24T00:53:01.334-04:00September 23, Update A: Post-Tropical Storm Fiona, Tropical Storms Gaston, Hermine, and Ian<p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">I'm jumping right in with my customary Friday lychee martini in hand because there's a bunch of names on the menu today...</span></span></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhUs7JtkUTsgVT4Zs-VucBtSNsX2PzJ-WcWQPM0kPjAO9eOelhydQPhj8sFgpniSLQVorwRV7p8aoFESPNADwPsQZ0fPAdrt5Jr8urdWtkgFTNEt5-Pv7y4oxDC8mbQnXjMkjwbgQsGnOub2kIu2e67I8LEUdnfvKJGb9aRZHbo4-rJmo_EHQ/s900/two_atl_0d0-092322.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="601" data-original-width="900" height="428" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhUs7JtkUTsgVT4Zs-VucBtSNsX2PzJ-WcWQPM0kPjAO9eOelhydQPhj8sFgpniSLQVorwRV7p8aoFESPNADwPsQZ0fPAdrt5Jr8urdWtkgFTNEt5-Pv7y4oxDC8mbQnXjMkjwbgQsGnOub2kIu2e67I8LEUdnfvKJGb9aRZHbo4-rJmo_EHQ/w640-h428/two_atl_0d0-092322.png" width="640" /></a></span></div><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><b>Post-Tropical Cyclone Fiona</b></span></span></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">She is at 44.5N, 60.8W, heading N at a roadrunner pace of 46 mph!! This forward speed is a clear indication that she is part of that front now and definitely not a tropical storm anymore, and the NHC have changed her designation to post-Tropical. Her wind speed is 105mph, central pressure is 933mb, which makes her a mid-size Cat 2 storm (cat 2 range: 96-110mph). She is going to head north and is expected to have Tropical Storm level winds by tomorrow:</span></span></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEha9nUhMUzi8W8Y0LakxGPk2_XmUiPNlTSC7J8bj6_ugfbH6rVkEqCNnvhOD1xcWMhEUtSDNG9TcUfuzlOajcMaU4BagzUNYpM5DPreRh-gjUXcoVtrpaoMAsFgLq5DTqIzPCfMmAenyXPfMqfcyesGge8AQkNR73MZN5GvhC26TQR8FccGNA/s897/025713_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="736" data-original-width="897" height="526" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEha9nUhMUzi8W8Y0LakxGPk2_XmUiPNlTSC7J8bj6_ugfbH6rVkEqCNnvhOD1xcWMhEUtSDNG9TcUfuzlOajcMaU4BagzUNYpM5DPreRh-gjUXcoVtrpaoMAsFgLq5DTqIzPCfMmAenyXPfMqfcyesGge8AQkNR73MZN5GvhC26TQR8FccGNA/w640-h526/025713_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png" width="640" /></a></span></div><p></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif;">There is a lot of wind shear and so her convection has not only decreased (because she is over colder water now) but it is also being pushed to her north and west: </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhDafyt4FsZh467JxrZGt0i83w3odsx3xmC8Hm2jtKxBzG9L87T9PRH6tyGV3QGuEKsCj8UtgCv3s5RMWt_JbbG0JdKDePafFQgJCB9WQ-GFceZpbpDTL9x8K4owWGLtDRiYTFB3uJDBa25nqR_zI4KNisKTOa4HBghrswTMHGjAGM28b5sGQ/s1000/floater_floater_AL072022_band11_24fr_20220923-2352.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1000" data-original-width="1000" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhDafyt4FsZh467JxrZGt0i83w3odsx3xmC8Hm2jtKxBzG9L87T9PRH6tyGV3QGuEKsCj8UtgCv3s5RMWt_JbbG0JdKDePafFQgJCB9WQ-GFceZpbpDTL9x8K4owWGLtDRiYTFB3uJDBa25nqR_zI4KNisKTOa4HBghrswTMHGjAGM28b5sGQ/w640-h640/floater_floater_AL072022_band11_24fr_20220923-2352.gif" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif;">So Nova Scotia, Newfoundland, and beyond are getting (or have had) some bouts of heavy rain but mostly this will be a windy storm. If it wasn't for that front she's got herself involved with, I don't think she would even have this much wind and would really be a weak cat 1 or Tropical Storm level system by now. </span></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif;"><br /></span></p><p><b style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif;">Tropical Storm Gaston</b></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif;">Just a quick note on Gaston, who is behaving exactly as predicted. He is at 38.9N, 29.5W, heading SW at 8mph. He's in the Azores and hasn't changed too much since we last saw him - 60mph winds, central pressure of 999mb. There is almost no convection in him so he's a paler version of Fiona - just a very breezy weekend in the Azores. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhZzhk4_eZXRCWHBCZNjjL4A2iDbW8afk9SjuCww_XaRi1PxOkfoyi3-b-DXY9DhlTHJ9yYiGmQvsHs16Wnyzqb-feYcPrQ9Dgz8ZliSp-2tSHWHzmp7PW4pFo0SIvmrGDjvQX5yqaoBAxUE4Hqx1olFaC3r_QbS46Mh0hY8S40-Qin572og/s1000/floater_floater_AL082022_band11_24fr_20220923-2354.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1000" data-original-width="1000" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhZzhk4_eZXRCWHBCZNjjL4A2iDbW8afk9SjuCww_XaRi1PxOkfoyi3-b-DXY9DhlTHJ9yYiGmQvsHs16Wnyzqb-feYcPrQ9Dgz8ZliSp-2tSHWHzmp7PW4pFo0SIvmrGDjvQX5yqaoBAxUE4Hqx1olFaC3r_QbS46Mh0hY8S40-Qin572og/w640-h640/floater_floater_AL082022_band11_24fr_20220923-2354.gif" width="640" /></a></div><br /><b style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif;"><br /></b><p></p><p><b style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif;">Tropical Storm Hermine</b></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif;">And gaining ground from behind, an Atlantic Blob that was identified as having potential when it was still over Africa has now overtaken our Caribbean Blobette of yesterday to become the new Tropical Storm Hermine (which now makes the Caribbean Blobette a Caribbean Blob called Ian :-)).</span></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif;">Hermine is at 19.4N, 20.8W heading N at 10mph. She's barely a Tropical Storm with winds officially at 40mph (TS range: 39-73mph), central pressure 1002mb. I think she's actually a bit stronger than this - she has good circulation in the lower half of the troposphere, and certainly has more convection (thundery weather) than Fiona and Gaston: </span></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgkV1uToXHhDHiHP8wQBtyiXy0oHPt4SqufaZMcl9yzxknmnxHR6jLMwQR-5KTrdD5x1fxwC5yeJP44snkF4-cgXZtoaKo2z1_dTVyhjLmPAOAoitmpN_0kC3O3MgVOTq1v3L1h3eaYOnWcES_4sXo00tEjwspxFaaAL6hdPzKk7z2yS_q3Cg/s1000/floater_floater_AL102022_band11_24fr_20220924-0018.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1000" data-original-width="1000" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgkV1uToXHhDHiHP8wQBtyiXy0oHPt4SqufaZMcl9yzxknmnxHR6jLMwQR-5KTrdD5x1fxwC5yeJP44snkF4-cgXZtoaKo2z1_dTVyhjLmPAOAoitmpN_0kC3O3MgVOTq1v3L1h3eaYOnWcES_4sXo00tEjwspxFaaAL6hdPzKk7z2yS_q3Cg/w640-h640/floater_floater_AL102022_band11_24fr_20220924-0018.gif" width="640" /></a></div><br />But we will never know how strong she really is because we don't have planes or anything else that can get into the system that far east (just off the coast of Africa) and give us data from within the storm, so the official assessment of intensity is really just a rough estimate. This is a problem in assessing intensity for storms around the world actually - satellites are great, but they only get us so far and then we need other ways of getting in situ data. <span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif;">In the meantime, Mauritania and the Western Sahara region is getting quite a few buckets of rain and will continue to do so for the next few days:</span><p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTp2lRaMDJ9io6_Q8FoBwCG6BaxXOgEJIMIV5rChj1w-5Bv_RutkYKdJfucahg3XpuxAVGWS58Jw923ZiyuBgLx82k1Kw1XRQus9yWwkjTrOLISumDa2PO4czNQdDp9WYQf4lWDBDf6jEOLTKMS5M7Cb6mmDQT4DSxwy1H_VACtuWilHA34A/s897/023831_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind_hermine.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="736" data-original-width="897" height="526" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTp2lRaMDJ9io6_Q8FoBwCG6BaxXOgEJIMIV5rChj1w-5Bv_RutkYKdJfucahg3XpuxAVGWS58Jw923ZiyuBgLx82k1Kw1XRQus9yWwkjTrOLISumDa2PO4czNQdDp9WYQf4lWDBDf6jEOLTKMS5M7Cb6mmDQT4DSxwy1H_VACtuWilHA34A/w640-h526/023831_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind_hermine.png" width="640" /></a></div><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif;">She is scheduled to just head north and then fizzle out by Sunday, so this is my last update on Hermine (unless she does something a bit wonky). </span><p></p><p><b style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif;">Tropical Storm Ian</b></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;">This was our Blobette of yesterday. He is at 14.8N, 72W and is heading WNW at 12mph. He is also barely a Tropical Storm with winds of 40mph, central pressure 1005mb. The track has him heading to the general Florida region via a quite visit to the Cayman Islands and Cuba... </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgOlWI_Hl4v7pKnOiHSy-M0CDSJnfx1SMAU4HUIOJ06pbIr1fr3M8bP5cFmvMUpXEdBcXKY44WpA4y7PkF5EkweZ2RECwvDR-mi7FsSfeG2zsikGGUROT5s2Dt2IGTOggxjuBaPGr1qzw9YDS9mKgNLbQU50j2hJUTUGQ1F8aGanyh9VIXzZQ/s897/024746_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind-Ian.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="736" data-original-width="897" height="526" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgOlWI_Hl4v7pKnOiHSy-M0CDSJnfx1SMAU4HUIOJ06pbIr1fr3M8bP5cFmvMUpXEdBcXKY44WpA4y7PkF5EkweZ2RECwvDR-mi7FsSfeG2zsikGGUROT5s2Dt2IGTOggxjuBaPGr1qzw9YDS9mKgNLbQU50j2hJUTUGQ1F8aGanyh9VIXzZQ/w640-h526/024746_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind-Ian.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;">I am not going to comment on the track for now - the NHC are very good at within 24 hours, but I don't have enough data yet to see what is beyond that. All I'll say is that the cone of uncertainty is covering most of Florida, so everyone should be getting ready. </span><p></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;">But intensity I can chat about. The Caribbean has a lot of warm water - the sea surface is warmer than 29 deg C and Ian is going over an area where the upper 125-150 m of water is warmer than 26 deg C, which means that the water he churns up is also warm enough to give him energy. This means that he has a lot of thundery and tornado-level convection, which we see from the infrared satellite imagery:</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjszfrcrsh1miuw3wAIiJUJylYGTbMfAVNpitl66JgdJcVba1kgq03iK9q_VKQzEEqpm7pDa_o7Llc9jbNXu7eXtOz6Y1SNZAKOtp_N1UKSIII6qdYtzu_FkqvUhMHlZDg7hFVnXLPaie5DXTyBRt_0ifqTO3HYoB15rIB0Sb46XMOv_GGNWQ/s1000/floater_floater_AL092022_band11_24fr_20220924-0041.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1000" data-original-width="1000" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjszfrcrsh1miuw3wAIiJUJylYGTbMfAVNpitl66JgdJcVba1kgq03iK9q_VKQzEEqpm7pDa_o7Llc9jbNXu7eXtOz6Y1SNZAKOtp_N1UKSIII6qdYtzu_FkqvUhMHlZDg7hFVnXLPaie5DXTyBRt_0ifqTO3HYoB15rIB0Sb46XMOv_GGNWQ/w640-h640/floater_floater_AL092022_band11_24fr_20220924-0041.gif" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;">There is also a lot of moist air - not dry air- around him, so that will also allow him to get stronger. However, his circulation is not too strong overall yet, and more than that, there is some strong wind shear which means the convection is offset to the east from the circulation. But once those two align, which will happen once wind shear decreases (and that will happen soon), then we will be looking at a proper Tropical Storm. </span><p></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;">I'll be back tomorrow - it'll be one of those weekends. </span></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;">Ciao for now,</span></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;">J,</span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif; font-size: 16px;">Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/</span></p><div class="post-body entry-content" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px 0px 0.75em;"><div style="line-height: 20.8px; margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Twitter @JyovianStorm</span></span></div><div style="line-height: 20.8px; margin: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="line-height: 20.8px; margin: 0in;"><span style="font-size: medium;">--------------------------------------</span></div><div class="post-body entry-content" style="line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px 0px 0.75em;"><p><span style="font-size: medium;">DISCLAIMER:</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.</span></p></div></div>Jyohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13799343640305859521noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34244528.post-77146649769569269622022-09-23T01:52:00.004-04:002022-09-23T01:55:25.158-04:00September 22, Update A: Hurricane Fiona, Tropical Storm Gaston, and the Caribbean Blobette<p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">What a lovely piece of art... </span></span></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjj6ya7oNbBYzEc6jFLUu9jXrNig2-0N2l8lK2Uz1icj2sIAkNP5QWwxVlQoeSa3eJJ9-MekF76fmhp255u6V0Xrzl_uyL_36Y9FsTriGSlzqo3GyXzWF4wO2woHuxrTpFVMhClpoK-MCui6pv5ppTdL0lK97aJti3qjV6N5C5aHPyfQcsfiw/s900/two_atl_0d0_092222.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="601" data-original-width="900" height="428" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjj6ya7oNbBYzEc6jFLUu9jXrNig2-0N2l8lK2Uz1icj2sIAkNP5QWwxVlQoeSa3eJJ9-MekF76fmhp255u6V0Xrzl_uyL_36Y9FsTriGSlzqo3GyXzWF4wO2woHuxrTpFVMhClpoK-MCui6pv5ppTdL0lK97aJti3qjV6N5C5aHPyfQcsfiw/w640-h428/two_atl_0d0_092222.png" width="640" /></a></span></div><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">It's getting a tinsy bit crowded out there! </span></span></p><b>Hurricane Fiona</b></span></span><p></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif;">She is now at 31.9N, 68.1W, heading NNE at a very-much-faster-than-the-last-few-days speed of 21 mph! This means she is beginning to interact with a front which we can also see really clearly from her satellite image - the clouds associated with the front are sweeping in from the northwest in a line:</span></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEieAuTPJyTqIiV0oj9MQqS0RjdTCniVD2LoxiF2gAByiE47ftXmLvbntPUJIQ_Vh5HHv3XdFBMt5riZohKhmt3pUDAfq7FZXTWJ-gDB-oZ8nMok3Sf_yrLU5WjmHBuYY1ArSHDzngSpgiwHcLqkSByHQZ6LWhwFygQVSYw1gG_4KKRftPq-aA/s800/20222652210-20222660340-GOES16-ABI-AL072022-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="800" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEieAuTPJyTqIiV0oj9MQqS0RjdTCniVD2LoxiF2gAByiE47ftXmLvbntPUJIQ_Vh5HHv3XdFBMt5riZohKhmt3pUDAfq7FZXTWJ-gDB-oZ8nMok3Sf_yrLU5WjmHBuYY1ArSHDzngSpgiwHcLqkSByHQZ6LWhwFygQVSYw1gG_4KKRftPq-aA/w640-h640/20222652210-20222660340-GOES16-ABI-AL072022-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000.gif" width="640" /></a></span></div><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif;">There hasn't been any change in the official intensity yet, with winds still at 130mph - meaning she is a borderline cat 3/cat 4 storm (cat 4 range: 130-156mph), central pressure is 932mb. </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif;">However, we can really see the weakening on the west side of the storm today - with dry air and wind shear both impacting her, so I am not sure she really is that strong. She does still have a clear eye, so I think she is more likely a 120-125mph cat 3 storm. The infrared satellite is showing that dry air very clearly on the west side:</span><p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgMJT85GxvJKxrSh73SQwfd0URBaQWSTxAKXcM7nj9FnONP7TbA7Bya6SKJls37hw1XfsycCyYxXsCt5AU4c6wSCVyQL8JrW_EFB0VN9ryP6u_bw7OWcbjDH0BBWAqiZpG884P0DpeP4NlGfAmQEAFdWpH5G_PNEQQWs-y8MlMCuuUwycfmXg/s1000/floater_floater_AL072022_band11_24fr_20220923-0100.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1000" data-original-width="1000" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgMJT85GxvJKxrSh73SQwfd0URBaQWSTxAKXcM7nj9FnONP7TbA7Bya6SKJls37hw1XfsycCyYxXsCt5AU4c6wSCVyQL8JrW_EFB0VN9ryP6u_bw7OWcbjDH0BBWAqiZpG884P0DpeP4NlGfAmQEAFdWpH5G_PNEQQWs-y8MlMCuuUwycfmXg/w640-h640/floater_floater_AL072022_band11_24fr_20220923-0100.gif" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif;">Bermuda is experiencing a lot of rain and possibly some thundery weather at the moment. If you can't find Bermuda (and who can? ;-)) under all of that convection, it may be easier to see in the image above. It looks like they have some more severe weather heading their way before she leaves the 'hood, so I hope all of you on the island have your wellies and raincoats handy and aren't on a golf course with a metal club in hand! </span><p></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif; font-size: 16px;">Looking ahead, she will get to Canada by Saturday morning:</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbZ4_U_8HqqKWXBJ04eJqAHZ84IOsHuSaXGMrOBKAgNJ4Sq1pY0Ic5vr_ZrKkB-B2gsXn-0H74DeJlCU1BtfGE4yqr2RBe0HL4fCqnxFcOGfhssutYyDasVkQIdbFvRb0LoP_xhOenvyrhG65NSEZ06FWh9x3G4OxI1dyv3T8utCtcSG7roQ/s897/025943_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind_Fiona.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="736" data-original-width="897" height="526" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbZ4_U_8HqqKWXBJ04eJqAHZ84IOsHuSaXGMrOBKAgNJ4Sq1pY0Ic5vr_ZrKkB-B2gsXn-0H74DeJlCU1BtfGE4yqr2RBe0HL4fCqnxFcOGfhssutYyDasVkQIdbFvRb0LoP_xhOenvyrhG65NSEZ06FWh9x3G4OxI1dyv3T8utCtcSG7roQ/w640-h526/025943_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind_Fiona.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif; font-size: 16px;">There is some strong wind shear in front of her so she will no longer be a major hurricane by the time she gets to Nova Scotia (which means she won't be a cat 3 or higher storm) - the NHC think she will most likely be a weak cat 2 storm by then. This seems likely because, although there is some strong wind shear, she still has to cross the warm waters of the Gulf Stream which will give her an energy boost. Along with that, </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif; font-size: 16px;">she will be interacting with that front so some of her energy will be from that versus a normal tropical storm which gets all its energy from the ocean. For her to be weaker, that wind shear needs to kick in sooner - something to watch for tomorrow (Friday). I hope you guys in Canada are ready! Stay safe up there (as well as on Bermuda)! </span><p></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"><b>Tropical Storm Gaston</b></span></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">Not much change from yesterday other than the location really. He's now at 41N, 31 W, heading E at 12mph. Still a Tropical Storm with 65mph winds, central pressure is 999mb. The Azores has a breezy sort of weekend ahead:</span></span></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgWTFm6HT25eF1xINT8OuGHMVz6YWn8_M2Q21I2Z3A7H7xhdPf6TINNjOrRseRMvrmZD_a3I7cvZcb9vAtYX_Vi6pHe3Z21wiVISvKuNSszEfzxFX4hF5u4cIhYTeQYwe1hTM1zNYluVgb05k9KpVAS_hgHfivAXU-21GhsKcX9I11UWs0Xww/s1000/floater_floater_AL082022_band11_24fr_20220923-0131.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1000" data-original-width="1000" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgWTFm6HT25eF1xINT8OuGHMVz6YWn8_M2Q21I2Z3A7H7xhdPf6TINNjOrRseRMvrmZD_a3I7cvZcb9vAtYX_Vi6pHe3Z21wiVISvKuNSszEfzxFX4hF5u4cIhYTeQYwe1hTM1zNYluVgb05k9KpVAS_hgHfivAXU-21GhsKcX9I11UWs0Xww/w640-h640/floater_floater_AL082022_band11_24fr_20220923-0131.gif" width="640" /></a></span></div><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></span><p></p><p><b style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif;">Caribbean Blobette</b></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif;">Known a couple of days ago as the Atlantic Blobette, this one is now firmly in the Caribbean and may be Tropical Storm Hermine soon. She has some good circulation in the lowest level of the troposphere, but the structure isn't as robust in the mid-levels yet so she isn't a Tropical Storm yet. She is around 13N, 67W, heading WNW at 10-15mph.</span></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif;">As for the other two blobs, I'll leave those alone for today because it's time for a long nap in this time zone. </span></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;">Ciao,</span></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;">J.</span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif; font-size: 16px;">Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/</span></p><div class="post-body entry-content" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px 0px 0.75em;"><div style="line-height: 20.8px; margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Twitter @JyovianStorm</span></span></div><div style="line-height: 20.8px; margin: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="line-height: 20.8px; margin: 0in;"><span style="font-size: medium;">--------------------------------------</span></div><div class="post-body entry-content" style="line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px 0px 0.75em;"><p><span style="font-size: medium;">DISCLAIMER:</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.</span></p></div></div>Jyohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13799343640305859521noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34244528.post-37033889149414289602022-09-22T01:21:00.001-04:002022-09-22T01:21:05.934-04:00September 21, Update A: Hurricane Fiona and Tropical Storm Gaston<p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">Travel day today so not too much time to chat, however the fun thing about being in a new place is that you never know when you will find an ice cream store as you walk to the hotel. :-) But I digress...</span></span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif;"><b>Hurricane Fiona</b></span></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">Fiona is at 26.6N, 71.2 W, heading N at 10mph. Her outer bands have reached Bermuda, but her center is still on a track that means she will pass to the west of the island tomorrow on her way to Canada:</span></span></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj29LHimxwecG0QuMog7LNHLJvA_HCJzjdZEf9j8EnbDzb-Sq_-5tCMlV2Rcp1tvlG1x2V4MQwQ_A6yw78pKkpaHXSNp_vLwOb4oUpeGWp1sjEkzJOGg0MLDkVoESF1-iVKZn6qwRKsM5osdrLPf2mC3Efi-eEq9yI6eKhWtlgEDY4--DQkHw/s897/025102_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind_fiona.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="736" data-original-width="897" height="526" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj29LHimxwecG0QuMog7LNHLJvA_HCJzjdZEf9j8EnbDzb-Sq_-5tCMlV2Rcp1tvlG1x2V4MQwQ_A6yw78pKkpaHXSNp_vLwOb4oUpeGWp1sjEkzJOGg0MLDkVoESF1-iVKZn6qwRKsM5osdrLPf2mC3Efi-eEq9yI6eKhWtlgEDY4--DQkHw/w640-h526/025102_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind_fiona.png" width="640" /></a></span></div><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">However, there will still be some rather wet weather over the next few days as she moves by:</span></span><p></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEghc2MJ8SZJBuuGILXvXHTkvketdSaSWmT-Kdm4c8Z_HtC4MwEeMQ7Dfo6y4r3eILVIvEdXkGGlkccG5IqNBQl0ow9JmgrN7GLrWEpWoZXNWr-ie0ANe09VyHDCF-TXc5QKkuUqBEWM9JHceQh31GTQE0qrZ1QrASmsI64CYVTL4tvsSC5n9g/s1000/floater_floater_AL072022_band11_24fr_20220922-0039.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1000" data-original-width="1000" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEghc2MJ8SZJBuuGILXvXHTkvketdSaSWmT-Kdm4c8Z_HtC4MwEeMQ7Dfo6y4r3eILVIvEdXkGGlkccG5IqNBQl0ow9JmgrN7GLrWEpWoZXNWr-ie0ANe09VyHDCF-TXc5QKkuUqBEWM9JHceQh31GTQE0qrZ1QrASmsI64CYVTL4tvsSC5n9g/w640-h640/floater_floater_AL072022_band11_24fr_20220922-0039.gif" width="640" /></a></span></div><p></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">Officially she is now a borderline cat 3/cat 4 storm with winds of 130mph (cat 4 range: 130 - 156mph), central pressure 934mb. I think she's more in the strong cat 3 arena than cat 4 - the convection is definitely less than that of a cat 4 and we can continue to see that drier air coming in from the west. Also, although there is circulation through the entire troposphere it looks like a little wind shear has offset the upper level circulation from the middle level so the overall structure is a bit weaker. I would put her as a cat 3 storm with winds somewhere around 120 - 125mph - still a major storm of course. Be safe on Bermuda - hope you have your dark and stormy ingredients ready! </span></span></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><b>Tropical Storm Gaston</b></span></span></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">He is at 39.6N, 38.0W, heading ENE at 17mph. He is still planning a quick weekend away in the Azores... </span></span></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4UwGlbyc5WJtEs3RhTtsQp8z7sZwd9nFc1bx9fYJPjulb8cVbW2I_T7iVWXfXfMKk60pEMxkT4zcKstyaumj8A_gErefHBp3vhgVGrENym2nIEiB3oIHhhw6G2NPJ86qhlqXTl2YHujonR1ULHRzaysjzvzXe8uKuS8Vi2-mmerk-LjG53A/s897/023714_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind_gaston.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="736" data-original-width="897" height="526" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4UwGlbyc5WJtEs3RhTtsQp8z7sZwd9nFc1bx9fYJPjulb8cVbW2I_T7iVWXfXfMKk60pEMxkT4zcKstyaumj8A_gErefHBp3vhgVGrENym2nIEiB3oIHhhw6G2NPJ86qhlqXTl2YHujonR1ULHRzaysjzvzXe8uKuS8Vi2-mmerk-LjG53A/w640-h526/023714_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind_gaston.png" width="640" /></a></span></div><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"><br /><span style="background-color: white;">He's a mid-sized Tropical Storm with winds of 65mph, central pressure of 1000mb. There is very little convection so it'll be cloudy, rather breezy, with a few drops of rain over there...</span></span><p></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJwpYePqYt19JFg_g_n3d61h2pK4mmhj2SiVNTFutRypofKgx8KnCc2PvAddHlN9Ws2SKngWGhr9jx4glTBPd6H1i0GR4R_vFJii6lhEI9LZCjNzWl4eEYw4RtOdf-dt3jEw3Hy-a_TGymC3VWsN63sOaWy8fnDgEGZkKRgRwPpzzfP97IwQ/s1000/floater_floater_AL082022_band11_24fr_20220922-0110.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1000" data-original-width="1000" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJwpYePqYt19JFg_g_n3d61h2pK4mmhj2SiVNTFutRypofKgx8KnCc2PvAddHlN9Ws2SKngWGhr9jx4glTBPd6H1i0GR4R_vFJii6lhEI9LZCjNzWl4eEYw4RtOdf-dt3jEw3Hy-a_TGymC3VWsN63sOaWy8fnDgEGZkKRgRwPpzzfP97IwQ/w640-h640/floater_floater_AL082022_band11_24fr_20220922-0110.gif" width="640" /></a></span></div><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"><br /><span style="background-color: white;">And that's about it from me on this one. </span></span><p></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif;">You may have noticed that they found the crayons at the NHC this week... </span></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgoV1HBkvAwn362-GZPqJNUt9YLJh5cSQaLg0lw1Zc24XWfKG_QQyBBP27Ixw-9oTsZY-nFVcYS3DpKc0Vqg9R24F8SZoqzN09bx-1h4hDD_yKefB0fJAAo97RXScUg7MJQzA56cM9WsvSYMpDH5Fco2BX-e3glMTQvVlEyaiKYWsCB7OligA/s900/two_atl_0d0_210922.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="601" data-original-width="900" height="428" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgoV1HBkvAwn362-GZPqJNUt9YLJh5cSQaLg0lw1Zc24XWfKG_QQyBBP27Ixw-9oTsZY-nFVcYS3DpKc0Vqg9R24F8SZoqzN09bx-1h4hDD_yKefB0fJAAo97RXScUg7MJQzA56cM9WsvSYMpDH5Fco2BX-e3glMTQvVlEyaiKYWsCB7OligA/w640-h428/two_atl_0d0_210922.png" width="640" /></a></span></div><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"><br /><span style="background-color: white;">There hasn't been much change in the Atlantic blobette (the red cross) since yesterday, and the others aren't much to talk about at the moment so I'll save those for a rainy day on Bermuda (or in the Azores) and in the meantime, I'll keep an eye out for surprising ice cream shops popping up when you least expect them. ;-) </span></span><p></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">Toodles, </span></span></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">J. </span></span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif;">Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/</span></p><div class="post-body entry-content" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px 0px 0.75em;"><div style="line-height: 20.8px; margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Twitter @JyovianStorm</span></span></div><div style="line-height: 20.8px; margin: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="line-height: 20.8px; margin: 0in;"><span style="font-size: medium;">--------------------------------------</span></div><div class="post-body entry-content" style="line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px 0px 0.75em;"><p><span style="font-size: medium;">DISCLAIMER:</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.</span></p></div></div>Jyohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13799343640305859521noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34244528.post-19604824687082368102022-09-21T01:02:00.000-04:002022-09-21T01:02:18.348-04:00September 20, Update A: Hurricane Fiona, Tropical Storm Gaston, and the Atlantic Blobette<p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia; font-size: 16px;">You know... </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjb_V_pW6njeEUStUE7UYGUHoI5BJabXWR2d1aCHcyDN3cLkZpWrhKDDeszlumkVfqxHgzFPZ10m-nnXwnN4l_WpMvXXLSwGslZ1ermaajsHHQz3y8BMit4EMAZgCbrF-jY6SzAH99ciDERX8Cix78XeUFzu7y1Mn_5qpj_qJFFQXMtkvX6Uw/s750/tuesday-meme-images.webp" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="600" height="351" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjb_V_pW6njeEUStUE7UYGUHoI5BJabXWR2d1aCHcyDN3cLkZpWrhKDDeszlumkVfqxHgzFPZ10m-nnXwnN4l_WpMvXXLSwGslZ1ermaajsHHQz3y8BMit4EMAZgCbrF-jY6SzAH99ciDERX8Cix78XeUFzu7y1Mn_5qpj_qJFFQXMtkvX6Uw/w281-h351/tuesday-meme-images.webp" width="281" /></a></div><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia;">Well, I suppose it's only another three days until the real Friday stands up. :-) Busy day here and a busy day in the Atlantic.</span><p></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia;"><b>Hurricane Fiona</b></span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia;">She visited the eastern Turks and Caicos today but is now moving north at a bit of a slow 8mph and is currently at 23.2N, 71.8W. The good news for Bermuda is that the track has, indeed, shifted a little to the west so you are no longer in the cone of uncertainty:</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjtC9CHWWWph5pM7rrn57bWyqeCbDggeSUBLopRAkSFi9HxvIFYj3QBBEqWRtbw6zSLHd2ejgsMhVx6bLiRUOMTGIjZSXnb9gX4sLvU_HFssVxcOgUBHsmvfV_bFFjl7Ovnv58do0nNwI-8RX6qnFIxsRdj_TdatQDhaSWC1XEKABhnBjZXuA/s897/024959_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind_Fiona-sept20.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="736" data-original-width="897" height="526" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjtC9CHWWWph5pM7rrn57bWyqeCbDggeSUBLopRAkSFi9HxvIFYj3QBBEqWRtbw6zSLHd2ejgsMhVx6bLiRUOMTGIjZSXnb9gX4sLvU_HFssVxcOgUBHsmvfV_bFFjl7Ovnv58do0nNwI-8RX6qnFIxsRdj_TdatQDhaSWC1XEKABhnBjZXuA/w640-h526/024959_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind_Fiona-sept20.png" width="640" /></a></div><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia;">So feel free to rejoice on Bermuda... although not too much because she is still a big and strong storm and she'll be zipping by soon. Winds are now officially at 125 mph which means she is a major Cat 3 storm (cat 3 range: 111-129mph), central pressure is 947mb. She has a good looking eye which is very persistent, so I suspect she may actually be a cat 4 storm, not a cat 3 storm. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWkG40nbgSjTnuTedO7ni2QQHYjW1V4T7wsORP1k8nQpIdj5bAKFZvQRLbs6nXbOVBiKTNYS6RbK9wWIyReIEMPiumch_199GpJfmFP5v_D1pFvS33l8kjyyKcUxvBCuZkLDVn6OO94QcpViRS9p33WX7SK2e4M9QhopYG7Hi1OmMzVajIYw/s1800/G16_sector_taw_GEOCOLOR_12fr_20220920-2254.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1800" height="384" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWkG40nbgSjTnuTedO7ni2QQHYjW1V4T7wsORP1k8nQpIdj5bAKFZvQRLbs6nXbOVBiKTNYS6RbK9wWIyReIEMPiumch_199GpJfmFP5v_D1pFvS33l8kjyyKcUxvBCuZkLDVn6OO94QcpViRS9p33WX7SK2e4M9QhopYG7Hi1OmMzVajIYw/w640-h384/G16_sector_taw_GEOCOLOR_12fr_20220920-2254.gif" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><span style="text-align: left;">There is a lot of convection, but interestingly, although she is moving away from the islands, the convection does look to me like it has decreased a little in the last hour or so... </span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><span style="text-align: left;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJXjp0_faFYFIscFevT0NMQfYAj9HEZKJF9o6nL6NC2kP9_GFf92C4LE_C18yADiHQqxaKXi3bvdWFMmpGHM535CoeoQBOOYzpKM7Bh9ih_tdsbwPhsGXcgxBZG9HlS8y_An5lRN_uwLu0_-I5JTdiIq0zD79QVh6uXW0uBJJVQO_YWmfCeQ/s1000/floater_floater_AL072022_band11_24fr_20220920-2255.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1000" data-original-width="1000" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJXjp0_faFYFIscFevT0NMQfYAj9HEZKJF9o6nL6NC2kP9_GFf92C4LE_C18yADiHQqxaKXi3bvdWFMmpGHM535CoeoQBOOYzpKM7Bh9ih_tdsbwPhsGXcgxBZG9HlS8y_An5lRN_uwLu0_-I5JTdiIq0zD79QVh6uXW0uBJJVQO_YWmfCeQ/w640-h640/floater_floater_AL072022_band11_24fr_20220920-2255.gif" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="text-align: left;">I think the convection has decreased because there are fewer areas of really dark red in the infrared satellite imagery. Although she is over warm waters of 29 - 30 deg C, which would keep her intensity high, there is a little bit of wind shear and, more importantly, it looks like that dry air to her west has been pulled into the system - which we can see in that green/blue area that has wrapped around her. There is still some dry air to the west and you can see the drier air in the storm more clearly from the water vapour imagery:</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEht1cawA1TtNXyga4Y03rV6fMKKuqyyj6UXDU_xgILcIEhRhDgQQvVZXjwwSl6uFiqTNlxGMi3TEC53Ej1X5FX7rEdC3QSANtcl2KrrEL8LwTp4Sc8RfgFgdYhP0kpKfhEtxvc94By_z-47_cmhpLVVZTE6ndEncaK4ABVgiM8sit68MfZSBw/s1000/floater_floater_AL072022_band10_24fr_20220920-2341.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1000" data-original-width="1000" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEht1cawA1TtNXyga4Y03rV6fMKKuqyyj6UXDU_xgILcIEhRhDgQQvVZXjwwSl6uFiqTNlxGMi3TEC53Ej1X5FX7rEdC3QSANtcl2KrrEL8LwTp4Sc8RfgFgdYhP0kpKfhEtxvc94By_z-47_cmhpLVVZTE6ndEncaK4ABVgiM8sit68MfZSBw/w640-h640/floater_floater_AL072022_band10_24fr_20220920-2341.gif" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="text-align: left;">We will see how much of an impact this will make in the long run - the thing to watch for is whether that dry air gets pulled in towards the center and wraps around the eye a little more tightly. </span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><span style="text-align: left;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><span style="text-align: left;"><b>Tropical Storm Gaston</b></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><span style="text-align: left;"><b><br /></b></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><span style="text-align: left;">Gaston, named today, is a fairly weak tropical storm with winds of 50mph, central pressure 1004 mb (TS range: 39-73mph). He is merrily dancing and singing away by himself in the middle of the Atlantic at 36.2N, 43.6W as he heads NNE at a decent 18mph, but is planning on dropping in for a quick visit to the Azores...</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjKv4rbKyfxxTV9nvc826_ZQQlQoNbrCeRf5hl_HVeb43XiQ3K7aQFGpYL4QU6x0EFdrY-vXQiKrSR9KsagVPRJf2S1C5AXgMHytO5RLODf9pardHfg_onZ7SxsZ675acBJxTRpd1JoxuJLYT6ObIwlqzWwW3wyUceP9S4uXWj4yGgxjGM-5Q/s897/025537_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind-%20Gaston.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="736" data-original-width="897" height="526" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjKv4rbKyfxxTV9nvc826_ZQQlQoNbrCeRf5hl_HVeb43XiQ3K7aQFGpYL4QU6x0EFdrY-vXQiKrSR9KsagVPRJf2S1C5AXgMHytO5RLODf9pardHfg_onZ7SxsZ675acBJxTRpd1JoxuJLYT6ObIwlqzWwW3wyUceP9S4uXWj4yGgxjGM-5Q/w640-h526/025537_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind-%20Gaston.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="text-align: left;">His circulation is good in the lower half of the troposphere, which is an indication that he is a Tropical Storm so I agree with the NHC on this intensity. Unlike Gaston of Beauty & The Beast fame, this Gaston is a bit scrawny: </span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><span style="text-align: left;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj30dSStE7ZUnXNDuqc5BBNJb7gO4jezoln_AIVKJHEDPAl4iKp-Ye7AQh7OoOpdOIbXzhJ5c1Ob9e4EUTfbmcI9aLhAm7oVm4EFI2WdPbLOYMxbAgKP_reZ3PfL5-R4mFNR0_LXazoYxvy5UGDZ4yDVoqi7J3sP1EHPLHMsJ9ID5pEFy9_iQ/s1000/floater_floater_AL082022_band11_24fr_20220921-0015.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1000" data-original-width="1000" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj30dSStE7ZUnXNDuqc5BBNJb7gO4jezoln_AIVKJHEDPAl4iKp-Ye7AQh7OoOpdOIbXzhJ5c1Ob9e4EUTfbmcI9aLhAm7oVm4EFI2WdPbLOYMxbAgKP_reZ3PfL5-R4mFNR0_LXazoYxvy5UGDZ4yDVoqi7J3sP1EHPLHMsJ9ID5pEFy9_iQ/w640-h640/floater_floater_AL082022_band11_24fr_20220921-0015.gif" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="text-align: left;">That's because he is fairly far north where the sea surface temperature is right around 26 deg C and although there isn't a lot of wind shear, he is in an area of dry air...</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQKipElz-drprv3Kv9FxJjmH6T4qZMVwop7-tWZqqUuTzQH8weFf5_CZSHgT0WEsR7Vdfv5eqzDSuRuE-6OaZHwmb76szN3EDmljykEVWHUkBtjw62KDxh1SLUdJWDg2_5RHIRhlOU0Opo2G3P4HfouOYDeX7F5h4YkPgr7jB7-qTbTVDbxw/s1000/20222640250_GOES16-ABI-FL-10-AL082022-1000x1000.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1000" data-original-width="1000" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQKipElz-drprv3Kv9FxJjmH6T4qZMVwop7-tWZqqUuTzQH8weFf5_CZSHgT0WEsR7Vdfv5eqzDSuRuE-6OaZHwmb76szN3EDmljykEVWHUkBtjw62KDxh1SLUdJWDg2_5RHIRhlOU0Opo2G3P4HfouOYDeX7F5h4YkPgr7jB7-qTbTVDbxw/w640-h640/20222640250_GOES16-ABI-FL-10-AL082022-1000x1000.jpeg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><span style="text-align: left;">...and dusty air, known as the Saharan Air Layer (SAL). Let me tell you about SAL...</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><span style="text-align: left;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><span style="text-align: left;"><Science and Forescasting Alert!> <u>Saharan Air Layer</u>: The dust that comes off northern Africa quite often travels westward across the Atlantic towards the Caribbean and Florida, amongst other places. This is called the Saharan Air Layer. </span><span style="text-align: left;">It has two major impacts. </span><span style="text-align: left;">The good one (especially good if you want to get some sleep during an active hurricane season and are writing a hurricane blog) is that it tends to suppress tropical storms, in particular it impacts their ability to get their convection off the ground. </span><span style="text-align: left;">So, if you want a storm to be stopped in its tracks, you Better Call SAL... (teehee). </span><span style="text-align: left;">The bad impact is that, amazingly, it carries with it microbes and stuff (technical term for 'stuff' ;-)) across thousands of miles, and these have been known to result in an increase of certain health issues along the western side of the Atlantic - especially respiratory illnesses. </span></div></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><span style="text-align: left;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><span style="text-align: left;">Here is a map showing the Saharan Air Layer:</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><span style="text-align: left;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjN41JeLtRbVBtMBucbJpzjeskD4ApGHHkFsUVM0vXLn4uaCNN65nNw19Gwe66OW35Whl2gKdBksCTjd5jGOcKwSk3RpxXpUW32ct2gKvqs93c68iX15gOQlmwLwXAZV_SkcJOrAsfrHW7uwhI9kwU1N3M6NRW4f2JMozRhgHwlOTd6ZFuRKQ/s1542/g16split.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="820" data-original-width="1542" height="340" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjN41JeLtRbVBtMBucbJpzjeskD4ApGHHkFsUVM0vXLn4uaCNN65nNw19Gwe66OW35Whl2gKdBksCTjd5jGOcKwSk3RpxXpUW32ct2gKvqs93c68iX15gOQlmwLwXAZV_SkcJOrAsfrHW7uwhI9kwU1N3M6NRW4f2JMozRhgHwlOTd6ZFuRKQ/w640-h340/g16split.jpeg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="text-align: left;"><br /></span></div>In the satellite image above, the red bits are dust levels. The really red indicates areas where you'll need an industrial strength vacuum cleaner to suck up all the dust and the yellow areas are places where a feather duster used daily might work. You can see Fiona to the west, and Gaston towards the top of the image - between two patches of dusty air. </span><p></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia;">This image is from the University of Wisconsin CMISS page, which is an excellent website for this sort of handy information. If you want to have a look for it yourself (and I am sure you do!), go to this website: </span><a href="http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic.php" style="color: blue; font-family: Calibri; font-size: 16px;">http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic.php</a>. <span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia;">Click on the colour block in the lower map for the part of the world you are interested in (North Atlantic in this case) and in the drop-down menu (amongst a number of other things) you will see 'Saharan Air Layer Analysis;. Click on this and you will see the map above. Easy peasy! Now you are all experts in the SAL! :-) <End Science and Forecasting Alert!></span></p><p></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><b>Atlantic Blobette</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">This one is just off South America and consists of a bunch of clouds with a small amount of circulation. It's moving WNW towards the southern Caribbean and will bring a few drops of rain to the southern Windward Islands. If it develops into the possible future Hermine, I'll mention her again, otherwise for now, I reckon I'll call it a day. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Ciao for now!</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 16px; text-align: justify;">J.</span></div><p></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/</span></span></p><div class="post-body entry-content" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px 0px 0.75em;"><div style="line-height: 20.8px; margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Twitter @JyovianStorm</span></span></div><div style="line-height: 20.8px; margin: 0in;"><br /></div><div style="line-height: 20.8px; margin: 0in;"><span style="font-size: medium;">--------------------------------------</span></div><div class="post-body entry-content" style="line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px 0px 0.75em;"><p><span style="font-size: medium;">DISCLAIMER:</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.</span></p></div></div>Jyohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13799343640305859521noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34244528.post-53050038696917939092022-09-20T01:56:00.005-04:002022-09-20T02:08:24.965-04:00September 19, Update A: Hurricane Fiona<div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Oh dear oh dear oh dear. I was busy watching historical events in the UK (including, along with a few billion others, the 'biggest live TV event in history' today) so I wasn't paying attention to the Atlantic! To make up for it, I will write extra long and possibly even slightly interesting updates for the next few days. So to start... I see that Hurricane Fiona has been a bit of a menace in the Caribbean (not like my friend, Fiona, who is (a) a lovely person and (b) not in the Caribbean). And it looks like she (the storm, not my friend) will continue to be troublesome for a few more days. </span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">She was named Tropical Storm Fiona 5 days ago and crossed into the Caribbean just north of Guadaloupe as a mid-size TS with winds of 50-60mph on Friday. </span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Fiona (the storm, not my friend) became a cat 1 hurricane as she was passing south of Ponce, Puerto Rico, and made landfall yesterday on the very southwestern tip of Puerto Rico, about 15 miles SSE from Mayaguez - still as a cat 1 hurricane with winds of 85mph, central pressure 986mb. This September marks the </span><span style="font-family: georgia;">5 year anniversary of Hurricanes Irma and Maria hitting Puerto Rico and unfortunately the infrastructure is still not robust so as a result power has, of course, been knocked out.</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">After Puerto Rico, Island-hopping Fiona briefly visited the Dominican Republic this morning, still as a cat 1 storm with winds of 90mph, but is now on her way to see what's happening in the Turks & Caicos. I hope the peeps on the islands in the northern Caribbean are generally ok - this storm just dropped a lot of rain all over the place! Stay safe out there my friends! </span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">She is currently at 20.6N, 70.3W, heading NNW at 10mph and has intensified to being officially a borderline cat 2/cat 3 storm with winds of 110mph, central pressure 971mb (Cat 3 range: 111-129mph). </span><span style="font-family: georgia;">The track, as I said, takes her north now to the eastern Turks & Caicos, and then into the Atlantic heading generally towards Canada - but making sure to try and take in Bermuda on her journey:</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi-eIPHcdtspEo74vdKeHWtFoZplZoofGFNUqYrpCGSZrDp_KVF_JguLC7evAhAjK5QBQq8FhwuBSgvYNQ1mwgqDB6PatOkpOKFnWSCUxTLUB3f9Fy4yrBXLpOSgqWxh3fgZg1cbaPfg0ggA9LSVnai3wPXooW3fD76klz4Ad5ZyUJLN5G83g/s897/025241_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind_Fiona_091922.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="736" data-original-width="897" height="526" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi-eIPHcdtspEo74vdKeHWtFoZplZoofGFNUqYrpCGSZrDp_KVF_JguLC7evAhAjK5QBQq8FhwuBSgvYNQ1mwgqDB6PatOkpOKFnWSCUxTLUB3f9Fy4yrBXLpOSgqWxh3fgZg1cbaPfg0ggA9LSVnai3wPXooW3fD76klz4Ad5ZyUJLN5G83g/w640-h526/025241_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind_Fiona_091922.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia;">It is possible that she will pass to the west of Bermuda instead of directly over the island, but definitely expect windy and wet weather. </span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGEIiItvEM5Uskd_bM63cx_kN3RjR0b5riARftCtAGwS7Xzyvy5We98ECVbivDnsJIW0CaBh_4AV1BBjDdpZZeumpNiZB8MwQ06T3od5QnPeVUGs1LjzJOIyq2Huxfd9oafNJ4Qh_ybM61PMQVHYRwJGteKwCeblGIzL-mdbWsvzpN2qWY8Q/s1000/20222622030-20222630420-GOES16-ABI-CAR-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1000" data-original-width="1000" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGEIiItvEM5Uskd_bM63cx_kN3RjR0b5riARftCtAGwS7Xzyvy5We98ECVbivDnsJIW0CaBh_4AV1BBjDdpZZeumpNiZB8MwQ06T3od5QnPeVUGs1LjzJOIyq2Huxfd9oafNJ4Qh_ybM61PMQVHYRwJGteKwCeblGIzL-mdbWsvzpN2qWY8Q/w640-h640/20222622030-20222630420-GOES16-ABI-CAR-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000.gif" width="640" /></a></div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">As we can see from the visible satellite imagery, she has a lovely eye and quite a lot of very strong convection (which we can see from the red areas in this infrared satellite imagery which are areas of strong tornados, lightning and stuff - stormy stormy weather): </span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEix5ctH2k4PcvnFq_ipW07iw3WLnI_qZojOyZ0UqLBD6cmNFgblbFFpGaFunI7T3vRQRv7P7zejrPuwyyFREK8mJNQJrnniMigDQFDEq1qK6Oh4yHYF87uuEoHLVnw5-WamWtcTEv9Y_e2JJX1oYfAo7hPFmg85yoH6LFJK9ihbDoap2_qvdA/s1000/floater_floater_AL072022_band11_24fr_20220920-0118.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1000" data-original-width="1000" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEix5ctH2k4PcvnFq_ipW07iw3WLnI_qZojOyZ0UqLBD6cmNFgblbFFpGaFunI7T3vRQRv7P7zejrPuwyyFREK8mJNQJrnniMigDQFDEq1qK6Oh4yHYF87uuEoHLVnw5-WamWtcTEv9Y_e2JJX1oYfAo7hPFmg85yoH6LFJK9ihbDoap2_qvdA/w640-h640/floater_floater_AL072022_band11_24fr_20220920-0118.gif" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Her circulation is also quite strong throughout the troposphere (ooh... Science alert! :-)) so I agree with the National Hurricane Center (NHC henceforth) that she is a cat 2, borderline cat 3 storm (actually, I think she's already a cat 3). </span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><Science Alert!> <u>The Troposphere</u>. Our atmosphere is divided into layers - like a delicious strawberry trifle or seven-layer dip or lasagna (depending on which country you are from). In each layer, the air temperature either increases with height or decreases with height. The troposphere is one of these layers. It is the lowest section of our atmosphere and extends up from the Earth (or Ocean :-)) to about 15-16 km in the equatorial regions and to about 8km in the polar regions of the planet. This is the layer of the atmosphere we live in - this is the layer we breathe. All our 'weather' essentially occurs in the troposphere. </span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">The troposphere is defined by decreasing air temperature with increasing height - something you would have experienced already if you climbed a mountain. Or the easier option, of course, is to just look at pictures of mountains and see the snow at the top (known as the 'Flat Florida Option'). ;-) The top of the troposphere is called the tropopause. Strong tropical storms have clouds that reach as high as the tropopause - and in a few very strong cases, they can extend even higher into the next layer up - into the stratosphere, which is the layer of the atmosphere above the troposphere. The stratosphere is defined by air temperature that increases with height. The ozone hole is in the stratosphere. The top of the stratosphere is around 50km height as is marked by the stratopause. And the layer above that is the mesosphere, where air temperature decreases with height again... and so we go on until we get to space... <End Science Alert!></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">The NHC think she will continue to intensify to a cat 4 storm, and it looks like that is quite possible. She is over some very warm water - sea surface temperatures are warmer than 28 deg C, and the upper ~100m of water is warmer than 26 deg C, which means that she has a lot to feed her. She is moving into an area where the wind shear is getting weaker, which gives her a chance to intensify. The only thing I see at the moment working against her a little is that she has some dry air to her west, which could keep her in check a bit. We can see this from the water vapor imagery where the yellow parts are drier air: </span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjvQR4U0MSUVpYxemffayOREZZjIkrgeyBUr5x6OFffPBmTEQPXaUm72T8DEHwR7PSxhx7L2fS5U_LIAP5TMlZAPTlPlQBpa8ggoICvwSkmeqM3noy5iOsYTGAwWyhtrYYeHnzyYqoJO0VoxWdiqOer0o11kemPogMk4khLpT6ZHpHy0Hl_bQ/s1000/floater_floater_AL072022_band10_24fr_20220920-0142.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1000" data-original-width="1000" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjvQR4U0MSUVpYxemffayOREZZjIkrgeyBUr5x6OFffPBmTEQPXaUm72T8DEHwR7PSxhx7L2fS5U_LIAP5TMlZAPTlPlQBpa8ggoICvwSkmeqM3noy5iOsYTGAwWyhtrYYeHnzyYqoJO0VoxWdiqOer0o11kemPogMk4khLpT6ZHpHy0Hl_bQ/w640-h640/floater_floater_AL072022_band10_24fr_20220920-0142.gif" width="640" /></a></div><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">That's Fiona for today.</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Since we last met, Tropical Storm Kay peeked over the Los Angeles horizon! A very rare occurrence indeed. It's been 9 years since I sat under a tropical storm so it was quite refreshing (like my G&T) to be in the rainy and </span><span style="font-family: georgia;">cloudy weather in Los Angeles, where we saw the outer bands of Tropical Storm Kay. At least where I am, she brought much needed rain to this part of the world which is facing a drought (355 days of the year there is no rain in LA, so of course that was the day our roof had work done on it... impeccable timing! ;-)). </span><span style="font-family: georgia;">Kay has long gone but, although not unheard of, I read that this was the closest a tropical storm has reached Southern California in about 50 years. </span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Until tomorrow!</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Toodle pip,</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia; font-size: 16px;">J.</span></div><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/</span></span></p><div class="post-body entry-content" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px 0px 0.75em;"><div style="line-height: 20.8px; margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Twitter @JyovianStorm</span></span></div><p><span style="font-size: medium;">--------------------------------------</span></p><div class="post-body entry-content" style="line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px 0px 0.75em;"><p><span style="font-size: medium;">DISCLAIMER:</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.</span></p></div></div>Jyohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13799343640305859521noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34244528.post-36701167157889032262022-09-09T01:12:00.002-04:002022-09-09T01:13:05.441-04:00September 8, Update A: The Queen, Hurricane Earl, Post-Tropical Storm Danielle, Tropical Storm Kay<p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif;">I never could get the hang of Thursdays (HGTTG)... it's a school night, so tonight it was wine and ice cream (not in the same bowl of course!), but tomorrow and all weekend it will be G&T's to honor the end of the 2nd Elizabethan Age and the start of the reign of King Charles III. </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_yywvBO7XOMe75ofY0PSqzPvAZy3M-AkZ8JL3_Ji6JP4OGjJEPLkWlJqGBdkmNrNYVug4lOA3-ONRDp2kGuNhtf18C6PGg0TiKQ97EiForHnt6XmR8pR70nSvE7JkjW1bf5lgEZcol-kJDxiN3xrTgrFitg0AJ8N4OfCjLNRj_z0DrTvOPw/s1200/queen-elizabeth-ii-gettyimages-904669426.jpeg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="900" data-original-width="1200" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_yywvBO7XOMe75ofY0PSqzPvAZy3M-AkZ8JL3_Ji6JP4OGjJEPLkWlJqGBdkmNrNYVug4lOA3-ONRDp2kGuNhtf18C6PGg0TiKQ97EiForHnt6XmR8pR70nSvE7JkjW1bf5lgEZcol-kJDxiN3xrTgrFitg0AJ8N4OfCjLNRj_z0DrTvOPw/s320/queen-elizabeth-ii-gettyimages-904669426.jpeg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"><span style="font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;">I was thinking earlier today that when she began her monarchy there was no National Hurricane Center, Charles Keeling had not yet started the measurements that showed CO2 increasing in the atmosphere, we had no idea of hydrothermal vents or that that non-carbon based life-forms even existed on Earth, there were no computers or satellites or the internet, no-one had been to the Moon or the deepest point in the Ocean, there was no Dr. Who, Star Trek, Star Wars, Lord of the Rings, Harry Potter, Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy - the list goes on. It's incredible to see how much changes during one lifetime - and yet, although the world changed around her, she remained in her job, the one thing that didn't really change. This is definitely the end of an era and </span><span style="font-family: georgia;">a historic day. RIP Queen Elizabeth II. So long, and thanks for all the fish as we like to say. </span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></span><span style="font-family: georgia;"><b>Post-Tropical Storm Danielle</b></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><b><br /></b>Moving on to the business of the day... Danielle is now at around 48N, 30W, heading NNE at 14mph. Winds have decreased since yesterday and are 65mph, central pressure is 973mb so she is no longer a hurricane but still a fairly strong Tropical Storm (TS range: 39-73mph). I expect her to continue to weaken as she heads for towards the northwester Spain part of the world (so everyone there should be ready for a wet and blustery start to next week)! </span></div><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZkDZn2ZQUFDzQ4N7JZ6qCPLjpM1k3Z_NLiBFeN_RFCkVP1SD9Ix2hmdCOxxy7GouzzmwbYvZlQcSW1ZwFnMXW9GU2tmI1r8ckI4YiRKEi1xD7FDB09HMCQbmPXgkYha3WxiWM1XqhUmLM7ZoLVcX3xcxBabFeWEUxRGxlWVt9Noft-mznVQ/s1754/Screen%20Shot%202022-09-08%20at%209.37.14%20PM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1308" data-original-width="1754" height="478" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZkDZn2ZQUFDzQ4N7JZ6qCPLjpM1k3Z_NLiBFeN_RFCkVP1SD9Ix2hmdCOxxy7GouzzmwbYvZlQcSW1ZwFnMXW9GU2tmI1r8ckI4YiRKEi1xD7FDB09HMCQbmPXgkYha3WxiWM1XqhUmLM7ZoLVcX3xcxBabFeWEUxRGxlWVt9Noft-mznVQ/w640-h478/Screen%20Shot%202022-09-08%20at%209.37.14%20PM.png" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">This will be my last update on this storm (but let me know if you are over there and need some more information). </span></div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /><b>Hurricane Earl</b></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">Earl is at 31.3N, 63.7W, heading NNE at 15mph and is passing Bermuda as I write...</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgAl1QDtUhIKO2HNTbDmaZaUPHn58kn_MwWmipahn80JlcNPPenZvfXzFLbMO1yeuZbuLga1qjXL0OFxwqgk2KfcgBZltIZEj8NgtEV4fwGKHoG_QHeEDHEA25P-g_rnsWHdArlXpbusbrK1ELvAtKAB7fowbWkO2QnJ18O9BR5UFzJ_CH0qg/s897/025604_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind_Earl_090822.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="736" data-original-width="897" height="526" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgAl1QDtUhIKO2HNTbDmaZaUPHn58kn_MwWmipahn80JlcNPPenZvfXzFLbMO1yeuZbuLga1qjXL0OFxwqgk2KfcgBZltIZEj8NgtEV4fwGKHoG_QHeEDHEA25P-g_rnsWHdArlXpbusbrK1ELvAtKAB7fowbWkO2QnJ18O9BR5UFzJ_CH0qg/w640-h526/025604_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind_Earl_090822.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><span style="font-family: georgia;">He did intensify earlier today but has started to weaken again. Winds are now 90mph, with a central pressure of 964mb, which makes this a strong cat 1 storm (cat 1 range: 74-95mph). Bermuda is seeing some stormy weather as the bands go by, but the eye is passing to their east (you may have to look at this a couple of times to see the island)... </span><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEikfBUdXefi6vAnf6tkN1mTzdhIt254n8a_6ClnJUlddqVWEfMaeslH_unU8whJ-MBLjafivn-1Edv5rAebcZcAz-R5xrOfvK5Ri9sy7JfwcLOYsYSvAx4mQ79A4KJTY2WhAuSlEjD4EpssXdM4FnWZyl7jgnQ-afmAfRmAamKCXbgRtJ7Fgw/s800/20222512210-20222520340-GOES16-ABI-AL062022-13-1000x1000_Earl_090822.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="800" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEikfBUdXefi6vAnf6tkN1mTzdhIt254n8a_6ClnJUlddqVWEfMaeslH_unU8whJ-MBLjafivn-1Edv5rAebcZcAz-R5xrOfvK5Ri9sy7JfwcLOYsYSvAx4mQ79A4KJTY2WhAuSlEjD4EpssXdM4FnWZyl7jgnQ-afmAfRmAamKCXbgRtJ7Fgw/w640-h640/20222512210-20222520340-GOES16-ABI-AL062022-13-1000x1000_Earl_090822.gif" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div><span style="font-family: georgia;">Hopefully all will be as right as rain (and I mean that in the best possible way) by this time tomorrow! </span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;">The Atlantic Blobette is a little weaker today, so I won't bother with her for now but will end with a quick note on our eastern Pacific friend... <br /></span><p><span style="font-family: georgia;"><b>Tropical Storm Kay</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">She is much weaker now, having interacted with land in addition to moving over colder water. She was a strong Tropical Storm as she clipped the Baja peninsula earlier today, but is weakening and now has winds of 65 mph, central pressure of 985 mb, which makes her a mid-size Tropical Storm. She is currently at 28.4N, 115W, heading NNW at 14mph. Her outer bands are now even over LA!</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhg7wQuWvWpabyn0V9wrxSUfY0mapxe3gnF-jQyjUlGaSvzh3Ego7elZRBmDlt_G5PO0ay2UWYHUjBpJ7RtGWDb3nNekDYwhhYk62dG9OcRCn83MFhMzUQnA8bitOGfqkLqiSz8B7fbkhRtqG_3DU2StejVSB7hYdBjDyMGgKSU1wLiRBA15w/s800/20222512210-20222520340-GOES16-ABI-EP122022-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000_Kay_090822.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="800" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhg7wQuWvWpabyn0V9wrxSUfY0mapxe3gnF-jQyjUlGaSvzh3Ego7elZRBmDlt_G5PO0ay2UWYHUjBpJ7RtGWDb3nNekDYwhhYk62dG9OcRCn83MFhMzUQnA8bitOGfqkLqiSz8B7fbkhRtqG_3DU2StejVSB7hYdBjDyMGgKSU1wLiRBA15w/w640-h640/20222512210-20222520340-GOES16-ABI-EP122022-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000_Kay_090822.gif" width="640" /></a></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">But her convection is not as well developed as it was yesterday. It's currently raining over Mexico, but even that is decreasing as she heads north...</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwG3jdaPpXVOV5AN8PFU4vAKC62pyPZYTD1eSofBJicDBfKtk-WIFjH40ZrH5B8VJAIEGHn_EgBheI7MAwRSBEi84j71jZpDnVSakWIcihpD0i_Q4OQy86SzY5n0iugFENWTBTWuka-BCk0vwXiH_2tLr1TcQlsw7G0rHKYpwmf69nDo9lIQ/s800/20222512210-20222520340-GOES16-ABI-EP122022-13-1000x1000_Kay_090822.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="800" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwG3jdaPpXVOV5AN8PFU4vAKC62pyPZYTD1eSofBJicDBfKtk-WIFjH40ZrH5B8VJAIEGHn_EgBheI7MAwRSBEi84j71jZpDnVSakWIcihpD0i_Q4OQy86SzY5n0iugFENWTBTWuka-BCk0vwXiH_2tLr1TcQlsw7G0rHKYpwmf69nDo9lIQ/w640-h640/20222512210-20222520340-GOES16-ABI-EP122022-13-1000x1000_Kay_090822.gif" width="640" /></a></div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">I think that'll be all for this Thursday. </span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br />Ciao for now,</span></div><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">J.</span></span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/</span></span></p><div class="post-body entry-content" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px 0px 0.75em;"><div style="line-height: 20.8px; margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Twitter @JyovianStorm</span></span></div><p><span style="font-size: medium;">--------------------------------------</span></p><div class="post-body entry-content" style="line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px 0px 0.75em;"><p><span style="font-size: medium;">DISCLAIMER:</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.</span></p></div></div></div>Jyohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13799343640305859521noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34244528.post-80467740881196451702022-09-08T01:17:00.007-04:002022-09-08T01:30:22.486-04:00September 7, Update A: Hurricanes Danielle and Earl, an Atlantic Blobette, and Hurricane Kay<div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;">That was nice and refreshing; I had a lovely nap for the entire month of August - not a peep from the Atlantic! I have just recovered from a visit to wonderful world of Planet DragonCon and I see that right on <i>cue</i>... Mother Nature is out there playing <i>snooker... </i>haha<i> </i>(well I thought that was a clever little word play anyway ;-)).</span></div><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhoIEKVNrh-U_QogpjE2NewLc0Z76OLjtepm3msvYgi7bLFp1tVYG53fVelw46DhCcMKcSPE6NwZjC-g-Nsps5Y9ClVzfCl4FCp5Jemozt9aPUQxOe5Jed7m2FK--6egIpdE6xDiTkrcXlVgRqrHSuA0zphfeSXzd2DXTRC1eTRA_M68j0qOw/s900/two_atl_0d0.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="601" data-original-width="900" height="428" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhoIEKVNrh-U_QogpjE2NewLc0Z76OLjtepm3msvYgi7bLFp1tVYG53fVelw46DhCcMKcSPE6NwZjC-g-Nsps5Y9ClVzfCl4FCp5Jemozt9aPUQxOe5Jed7m2FK--6egIpdE6xDiTkrcXlVgRqrHSuA0zphfeSXzd2DXTRC1eTRA_M68j0qOw/w640-h428/two_atl_0d0.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;">So, let's see... what happened when I was away from Earth:</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /><b>Hurricane Danielle</b><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;">She became a named Tropical Storm in the middle of the Atlantic on the 1st of September - 6 days ago - and has been merrily dancing out there since then, not causing too much of a bother to anyone (unless you are sailing in the Atlantic). She is currently at 45.6N, 32. 9W and heading NE at 17mph: </span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-xqCNB0Yomdl6kw2eh2PYXxMdAPpICAcYW2L2q7z4KAfC8hGA-FWh6kYwpiIG2-jH7UVrMt4uyxLGRqkP8lp5_bWiquXqrtz-XMesRUX4wqD3SujyYHpx3xH2F8GHmQZ8dBh6Do4T-FTuUU81XgEkW90FcLCQwlR-MRUA4TSvjfuRGljDVw/s897/023653_5day_cone_no_line_D_090722.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="736" data-original-width="897" height="526" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-xqCNB0Yomdl6kw2eh2PYXxMdAPpICAcYW2L2q7z4KAfC8hGA-FWh6kYwpiIG2-jH7UVrMt4uyxLGRqkP8lp5_bWiquXqrtz-XMesRUX4wqD3SujyYHpx3xH2F8GHmQZ8dBh6Do4T-FTuUU81XgEkW90FcLCQwlR-MRUA4TSvjfuRGljDVw/w640-h526/023653_5day_cone_no_line_D_090722.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: medium;">She was heading to the UK but now that the new Prime Minister has been announced she has decided not to bother and is about to do a lovely pirouette and head to umm... northwestern Spain/Portugal (where I know a lot of people - oopsies). But the good news is that s</span><span style="font-size: large;">he is just barely a cat 1 storm with winds of 75 mph (cat 1 range: 74 - 95mph), central pressure 975mb and</span><span style="font-size: large;"> is already weakening so by the time she gets to that part of the world next week, she should be just a blustery breeze with maybe some clouds/rain:</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhX5ZE8TxvYp2bgf9TKQd_6qFbrTXOars1zZQS7wpovBdRD72xlOX6TMUifmACeJBbJYuROHGIaWhmx-VypJgI0McpYZPVWGtug2bubyc4g-dhI15kmsyU2HS1FCdYbq4Q33gYR3e-sAxWhK4PCpJYM80QnX-lS1f7vbo9RIGGbjgvHuYJ1uQ/s800/20222502100-20222510240-GOES16-ABI-AL052022-13-1000x1000.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="800" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhX5ZE8TxvYp2bgf9TKQd_6qFbrTXOars1zZQS7wpovBdRD72xlOX6TMUifmACeJBbJYuROHGIaWhmx-VypJgI0McpYZPVWGtug2bubyc4g-dhI15kmsyU2HS1FCdYbq4Q33gYR3e-sAxWhK4PCpJYM80QnX-lS1f7vbo9RIGGbjgvHuYJ1uQ/w640-h640/20222502100-20222510240-GOES16-ABI-AL052022-13-1000x1000.gif" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;">You can see from the infrared satellite imagery that she doesn't have a lot of convection (rain or stormy weather). Ooh... first Technical Alert of the season coming right up... :-) </span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><Technical Alert!> Satellite Imagery: I mainly use three sorts of satellite images: visible, water vapour (with a 'u'), and infrared. The visible one is obvious... it is what you would see if you took a black and white photo. Best used during daylight hours of course! ;-) The water vapour imagery is also relatively obvious... it shows how much water vapour there is in the atmosphere. Brown areas are dry (think of parched deserts) and any other colour indicates some amount of water vapour. The infrared satellite imagery is the most interesting though (in my humble opinion). This one not only shows where the storm is, but it also gives us an indication of how strong it is and what sort of weather we have. The colours represent how high the clouds reach into the atmosphere because they are based on the temperature at the top of the could (which is what the satellite sees). It gets colder the higher you get in the troposphere (the lowest level of the atmosphere) so we can tell from cloud top temperature how high the clouds are and therefore how strong the convection is! Red colours would be very big high clouds with some of the coldest temperatures, and blues and whites are lower, warmer clouds. The redder the cloud colour, the more active the convection. My general rule of thumb is (having seen these images and lived under the clouds at the same time) is that blue, green and yellow areas are mostly just clouds, with some rain in the yellow areas. But as you get to the orange and red/dark gray (which you see below in Earl), you get thunderstorms and possibly tornadoes. <End Technical Alert!></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>Hurricane Earl</b></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Earl was named a Tropical Storm on the 2nd of September and upgraded to a Hurricane yesterday. He's also been hanging out in the Atlantic and not causing too much consternation so far (he missed the islands in the northwestern Caribbean). But he now at 27.2N, 65.5W heading N at 9mph in the general area of Bermuda, where I imagine everyone is out playing golf at the moment because the wind field hasn't quite got to them: </span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgTASPChB71C0onX2_DrDBz_fYplrwCKmU6uLgm2GknnUodE1oLsB4-9WG9IdxtUp_rj6wnVtJ5zr6o4Xq6sjsGH-jjAGAgVY_W6Oem2BzPZlqfJz8jYbAo6eTmgDqGvPXZBrSr9knMiCpaFI-KyfRmKRWHTv4YaxCaWnix4JCHcRn146ZNQw/s897/030140_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind_Earl_090722.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="736" data-original-width="897" height="526" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgTASPChB71C0onX2_DrDBz_fYplrwCKmU6uLgm2GknnUodE1oLsB4-9WG9IdxtUp_rj6wnVtJ5zr6o4Xq6sjsGH-jjAGAgVY_W6Oem2BzPZlqfJz8jYbAo6eTmgDqGvPXZBrSr9knMiCpaFI-KyfRmKRWHTv4YaxCaWnix4JCHcRn146ZNQw/w640-h526/030140_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind_Earl_090722.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: medium;">I would say this track line is fairly good at this point - it is less than 24 hours away from the passing Bermuda and I think the NHC track within that timeframe is on target. So although it won't be a direct hit, I expect it to be a bit of a wet and blustery day tomorrow (much trickier for golfing my Bermudian friends, but a good time for a Dark & Stormy?). Winds are currently 100mph, central pressure is 970mb, which makes him a mid-size cat 2 storm (cat 2 range: 96-110mph). He does have a lot of convection and the outer cloud bands are already over the island...</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjz71HSUCgIdqv1s1GcyMAcZuQRnnxjTUYuFiSlSvcO8791wf59o51tSawyaEG626kWBa9Y6x5hYYjHBjv5fzT7Dr_0f2vbLM-8Ey5FMgfqEKew_gCRq0S2cJ3s1SPpFbsPgrEdPX5rQENExlrbXHudPuilZYs8bLXdjst9fiMTcPNYo2CYxg/s800/20222502210-20222510340-GOES16-ABI-AL062022-07-1000x1000_Earl_090722.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="800" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjz71HSUCgIdqv1s1GcyMAcZuQRnnxjTUYuFiSlSvcO8791wf59o51tSawyaEG626kWBa9Y6x5hYYjHBjv5fzT7Dr_0f2vbLM-8Ey5FMgfqEKew_gCRq0S2cJ3s1SPpFbsPgrEdPX5rQENExlrbXHudPuilZYs8bLXdjst9fiMTcPNYo2CYxg/w640-h640/20222502210-20222510340-GOES16-ABI-AL062022-07-1000x1000_Earl_090722.gif" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;">He is over warm water and the wind shear is decreasing, so the expectation is that he will intensify and will be at least a cat 3 storm as he passes close to Bermuda, and almost a cat 4 by the time he leaves that area. </span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Hurricane supplies in? Welly boots dusted off? Deflector shields engaged? Good. Be safe out there!</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>Atlantic Blobette</b></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;">This potential Tropical Storm is currently far from land in the middle of the tropical Atlantic at around 17.5N, 36 W, heading WNW at 15-20mph: </span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj3XuYDwy8-Ja3vXkpqm2D_3wBmHTWF5sdeIqNwBX8dM4xhgYseRHROzvldD1McCeBW-kb-plAtK4DU3f7l1_AI1shdobtKtsIHBurV7Vhu_rSGOzVyaCrb_-XqqH_yYh0GSvtnabGJw6BT9frtuMC6i74xF91wDEeEUMg2eU7UQIh65VOcPw/s1800/20222510440_GOES16-ABI-taw-11-1800x1080_tropical%20Atlantic.jpeg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1800" height="384" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj3XuYDwy8-Ja3vXkpqm2D_3wBmHTWF5sdeIqNwBX8dM4xhgYseRHROzvldD1McCeBW-kb-plAtK4DU3f7l1_AI1shdobtKtsIHBurV7Vhu_rSGOzVyaCrb_-XqqH_yYh0GSvtnabGJw6BT9frtuMC6i74xF91wDEeEUMg2eU7UQIh65VOcPw/w640-h384/20222510440_GOES16-ABI-taw-11-1800x1080_tropical%20Atlantic.jpeg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: medium;">She has some convection, but her circulation is not very well developed at the moment - although it is getting slowly stronger. I'll keep an eye on this but for now... there is one more storm! </span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>Hurricane Kay</b></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;">For those of you still awake and paying attention (Greg!), this one is not in the Atlantic... it's in the eastern Pacific, near Baja, California (not to be confused with LaLa, California - where we have pale orange skies today from fires versus grey skies from clouds!). She is currently at 23.2N, 113W, heading NNW at 14mph and is a strong category 1 hurricane with winds of 90mph, central pressure 975mb (cat 1 range: 74-95mph):</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgIXsX5P491aaC7P_EfHe4l1onqHzYT0vbUcmM30TkApzrx7NsCjbAHeS5_hFUZ__pfWR4YTghLIqFztY4nzZf9ZR3cZ_LJmnrqsG7bYFFgapzxwWBHtvsbIhPBnWtuwfSCB5D98jbLiKm7ZEE5RQWBeLIWsTV85wZmjKtLIRP349tP3Jy1HA/s897/025048_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind_kay.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="736" data-original-width="897" height="526" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgIXsX5P491aaC7P_EfHe4l1onqHzYT0vbUcmM30TkApzrx7NsCjbAHeS5_hFUZ__pfWR4YTghLIqFztY4nzZf9ZR3cZ_LJmnrqsG7bYFFgapzxwWBHtvsbIhPBnWtuwfSCB5D98jbLiKm7ZEE5RQWBeLIWsTV85wZmjKtLIRP349tP3Jy1HA/w640-h526/025048_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind_kay.png" width="640" /></a></div><br />The good news is that she is weakening - although the wind shear is weak (which would be helpful for intensification), working against that is her interaction with the peninsula and she is moving over cooler water as she continues to head north. So, by the time she clips land tomorrow (Thurs) I think she should barely be a cat 1 storm or a strong Tropical Storm with winds around 70-75mph (TS range: 39-73mph). For anyone in the area, it will be wet and windy and of course... surfs up! </span><span style="font-size: large;">Be safe out there. </span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;">That's all folks! (until tomorrow anyway). </span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br />Toodles,</span></div><p></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">J.</span></span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif;"><span style="font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/</span></span></p><div class="post-body entry-content" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px 0px 0.75em;"><div style="line-height: 20.8px; margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Twitter @JyovianStorm</span></span></div><p><span style="font-size: medium;">--------------------------------------</span></p><div class="post-body entry-content" style="line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px 0px 0.75em;"><p><span style="font-size: medium;">DISCLAIMER:</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.</span></p></div></div>Jyohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13799343640305859521noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34244528.post-13308663124176045562022-07-29T02:18:00.009-04:002022-07-29T15:44:10.342-04:00July 28: Well past the Official Start of the 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season!<p style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;">I'm baaack!! Did ya miss me? </span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;">I know, I know, I missed the end of last season, the official start of this season, and even the first three Tropical Storms of 2022! But I had a very </span><i style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;">very </i><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;">good reason... I forgot my password. ;-) </span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;">Ok, I didn't really (well, not this time anyway), but it was a rather busy and extremely rough and rocky off-season as we said thank you and a final farewell to my wonderful mum! But I think it has been rough and rocky for most of the world, which seems to have gone a bit bananas lately. So, I reckon we are all overdue for a bit'o'laughter, some scoops of wonderful weather science, with dollops of ice cream, glasses of wine, cups of tea, and hordes of jaffa cakes to see us through! I hope you are ready.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;">Before I get around to what can we expect this season, a few key pointers (and reminders for all you clearly intelligent repeat-visitors) about this blog… </p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;">1. These updates are about fun, forecasting, and education... and tropical storms (and whatever else pops into my head that may, with some imagination and possibly after a lychee martini or two, fit those three words). It is just what I think.</p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;">2. I have a British sense of humoUr... you have been warned. There will be random letters in words when you least expect them. But less random than if this was in Welsh. Or Irish (Gaelic). </p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;">3. This is my hobby - sometimes you'll get one update a day, sometime four. If you are really lucky, you won't get any. If you wish to pay me to write, let me know. I’m sure there is an AI out there by now that can take over and make this into the masterpiece of writing I can only dream of.</p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;">4. I hope you like Monty Python, Eddie Izzard, The IT Crowd. And other Funny Stuff.</p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;">5. If you have any questions (preferably about tropical storms), please ask. I will be happy to make up the answers for you. I can also cut and paste from previous entries (I’m very talented) so if I say something or use some "scientific jargon" (always thrilling!), please ask me about it.</p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;">6. I often write tongue-in-cheek, which sometimes hurts my cheek but what can you do? Gentle sarcasm, irony, and puns are all perfectly acceptable forms of communication. Unfortunately, they don't always translate in writing so please don't be offended - like Planet Earth, I'm "Mostly Harmless" (Douglas Adams). Have a piece of chocolate or a soothing cup of tea instead.</p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;">7. I'm sure every cloud in the Atlantic is exciting to some but, unless I'm bored, I'll usually write about those that I think are important.</p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;">8. Despite what you may have heard, I am not always right. But then neither is anyone else. Forecasting is complicated. Sometimes the crystal ball gets smudges and you are all out of Windex to clean it and the store is closed (or, these days, there's a supply chain issue). So PLEASE pay attention to the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service and your Emergency Managers - especially when a storm is looming because they have the most up-to-date information!!</p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;">9. I confess I am a twit. I am on twitter (@jyovianstorm). Twitter is cool sometimes. Just like bow-ties are cool (Dr. Who). And Science Fiction is cool. And ice in an orange G&T (so yum!) is the coolest of all. I will post these updates on Twitter, but I’ll also tweet about storms in other basins, my job (including live dives exploring the deep sea – ooh, ahh, you never know what you will see!), my movie, other people’s jobs, other people's movies, cool science, brilliant people, goofy things etc. so if you want to catch up between updates, that’s the place to lurk.</p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;">10. I will refer to ice cream, wine, cheese, cups of tea, jaffa cakes, and lychee martinis fairly frequently. To preemptively answer your questions, I do eat and drink other things for a balanced diet. For example, prawn cocktail crisps, fruit & nut chocolate, water, G&Ts.</p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;">Right, now we've got those formalities out of the way, let's have a look at what to expect this season. The predictions from my usual suspects are ... </span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;">Tropical Storm Risk (prediction date: 5 July): </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;">18 named storms, 9 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes.</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;">Colorado State University (prediction date: 7 July): 20</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;"> named storms, 10 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes.</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;">UK Met Office (prediction date: 23 May): </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;">18 (13-23) named storms, 9 (6-12) hurricanes, 4 (2-6) major hurricanes.</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;">NOAA (prediction date: 24 May): </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;">14-21 named storms, 6-10 hurricanes, 3-6 major hurricanes. </span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;">On average between 1991-2020 (30 years), there were 14 named tropical storms per year, 7 hurricanes per year, and 3 major hurricanes (category 3 or higher) per year. So, generally, the predictions for 2022 are above the average number of named storms/hurricanes/major hurricanes - meaning that they think it will be a busy year. </span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;">But how did they do last year? As a reminder, at the start of the season they were thinking it would be busier than average... similar to this year... </span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;">Tropical Storm Risk (prediction date: 27 May): 18 named storms, 9 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes.</p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;">Colorado State University (prediction date: 3 June): 18 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes.</p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;">UK Met Office (prediction date: 20 May): 14 (9-19) named storms, 7 (4-10) hurricanes, 3 (1-5) major hurricanes.</p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;">NOAA (prediction date: 20 May): 13-20 named storms, 6-10 hurricanes, 3-5 major hurricanes. </p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif; font-size: 16px;">And they were generally not too far off the mark: the 2021 season had 21 named storms so it was busier than average; and there were 7 hurricanes in 2021, so about average on the number of hurricanes, of which 4 were major hurricanes. </span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif; font-size: 16px;">But, there are a couple of things to understand about these numbers.</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif; font-size: 16px;">First, the number of years (and which years) you look at for the average baseline - in this case, we are using 1991-2020 instead of taking 20 years from 1992-2021.</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif; font-size: 16px;">Second, technology has steadily improved over the last few</span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif; font-size: 16px;"> decades so our ability to detect some of these storms has improved. The NHC (and fellow experts) have said that there are more named 'shorties' (short-lived, weak storms - not more hobbits in case you were wondering ;-)) in recent years than in the past <a href="https://noaanhc.wordpress.com/2021/06/30/was-2020-a-record-breaking-hurricane-season-yes-but/" target="_blank">because of technology not because of climate change</a>. So the numbers have increased in the last few years because of </span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif; font-size: 16px;"> tropical storms that existed for less than 24 hours, or were so weak that in the past they wouldn't have been detected or named. </span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;">And the three named storms we've had this year are all shorties too - all of them were named for less than 2 days, and two were named for less than 24 hours (Bonnie and Colin - shouldn't it have been Bonnie and Clyde?). In all cases, they were named after they picked up a lot of water vapor as they passed over either the Gulf Stream or over the very warm waters of the Caribbean so they had more convective activity.</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;">With improved technology, I expect we will see more named shorties and in a few years, when they re-calculate the 30 year average, those average number will go up as well. </span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;">So, I hope you are all prepared with your hurricane supplies! Here's my list (even works in Los Angeles) </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;">… water, wine, ice cream, a good book to read, wine, some candles, more ice cream, a radio (soothing classical music perhaps?), batteries, some more wine, mosquito repellent, and lots and lots of cans of lychees, gin (and tonic), and lychee liquor for the lychee martinis (because fruits are good for your health). And the pandemic special edition additions of course include: face masks, hand sanitizer, wipes. And cheese. Just because. :-) </span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;">For now, it seems peaceful over the North Atlantic... wouldn't it be nice if this was my one and only post for this season? </span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;">Toodle pip for now!</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif; font-size: 16px;">J.</span></p><p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif;">Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/</span></p><div class="post-body entry-content" style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px 0px 0.75em;"><div style="line-height: 20.8px; margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif;">Twitter @JyovianStorm</span></div><p>--------------------------------------</p><div class="post-body entry-content" style="line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px 0px 0.75em;"><p>DISCLAIMER:</p><p>These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.</p></div></div>Jyohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13799343640305859521noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34244528.post-69828390119449285252021-10-01T01:27:00.002-04:002021-10-01T01:27:33.887-04:00Hurricane Sam: 30 September, Update A<p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif; font-size: 16px;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">I know what you are thinking... </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiotkMzBlstFrkO81xXP0OHQUESTgoCIb3XjDRQ9b8oe9WP9v70dHHjfnPtsfYgkUFzEx9yDO6QqMOu3PiFBKY66YG0zmsCygT7GcQ2okbTtsvEl5VetZB0um9tQ_kn6Cuvdnhq/s996/Screen+Shot+2021-09-30+at+9.45.03+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="746" data-original-width="996" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiotkMzBlstFrkO81xXP0OHQUESTgoCIb3XjDRQ9b8oe9WP9v70dHHjfnPtsfYgkUFzEx9yDO6QqMOu3PiFBKY66YG0zmsCygT7GcQ2okbTtsvEl5VetZB0um9tQ_kn6Cuvdnhq/s320/Screen+Shot+2021-09-30+at+9.45.03+PM.png" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Well, ok then.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Hurricane Samwise is currently at 25N, 61.2W and heading NNW at 16mph. He's making that long-predicted turn towards the north now...</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgjSroiRqy6WkN5Ts6jdy6ukVBxrzEYdcSgwiNSBrfwRnZwPYjJSbSjcEFsL7Q2ZAOarks76wUYtrLtEsSl5nr9TdX8K0mKs1jn3nZ5gu3mXGoLZpkMN-Lj2fkEwKKO1qQHvGlY/s897/025526_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="736" data-original-width="897" height="329" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgjSroiRqy6WkN5Ts6jdy6ukVBxrzEYdcSgwiNSBrfwRnZwPYjJSbSjcEFsL7Q2ZAOarks76wUYtrLtEsSl5nr9TdX8K0mKs1jn3nZ5gu3mXGoLZpkMN-Lj2fkEwKKO1qQHvGlY/w400-h329/025526_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">He's still on track to pass far to the east of Bermuda. They are already seeing a few clouds from Sam, but won't get much more than a little rain I think as he passes by (if that). May not even need your brollies! Mostly, I think it might be a good surfing day. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Winds are still 145mph, central pressure is 938mb, which makes him a mid-to-strong cat 4 storm (cat 4 range: 130-156mph). His circulation is quite impressive throughout the troposphere and he has still got a very good looking eye...</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHKN-9To30v_1PqehdKjIiNsJx7P3HG1AyGT3gUfVXoyfX_p1EJHxVUvl-hsFhgMgeg4QPmm-qmhi4z8lHDFQYFKf-5vERkn7oRcjq8W7rcT6LRrQKlGmHsHa1rj8y8ejqC-75/s1000/GOES16-CAR-13-1000x1000+%252816%2529.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1000" data-original-width="1000" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHKN-9To30v_1PqehdKjIiNsJx7P3HG1AyGT3gUfVXoyfX_p1EJHxVUvl-hsFhgMgeg4QPmm-qmhi4z8lHDFQYFKf-5vERkn7oRcjq8W7rcT6LRrQKlGmHsHa1rj8y8ejqC-75/w400-h400/GOES16-CAR-13-1000x1000+%252816%2529.gif" width="400" /></a></div><br />Although the convection isn't as strong as we've seen in other storms and it is decreasing because he is moving away from the warmer water. He is also starting to head into an area of some wind shear, which you can see as the clouds on his northern side are streaming off to the north, so he will start to slowly weaken soon - sometime tomorrow. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Want to see what a storm looks like from sea level? We've all seen footage of the places flying through a storm. But Maeve C. shared the new footage from Saildrone with me today - Saildrone is an autonomous/remote controlled sea-going vessel (essentially an ocean drone/robot) - and this year, for the first time, it was sent into a hurricane. <a href="https://www.saildrone.com/press-release/ocean-drone-captures-video-inside-category-4-hurricane" target="_blank">Here's</a> the press release - check out the video to see what it's like so close to the water. Pretty cool stuff! </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">More tomorrow!</div><p></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif; font-size: 16px;">Toodle pip,</span></p><div class="post-body entry-content" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px 0px 0.75em;"><p><span style="font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif;">J.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif;">Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/</span></p><div class="post-body entry-content" style="line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px 0px 0.75em;"><div style="line-height: 20.8px; margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif;">Twitter @JyovianStorm</span></div><p>--------------------------------------</p><div class="post-body entry-content" style="line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px 0px 0.75em;"><p>DISCLAIMER:</p><p>These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.</p><div><br /></div></div></div><div style="clear: both;"></div></div><div class="post-footer" style="background-color: white; color: #999999; font-family: "Trebuchet MS", Trebuchet, Arial, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 12.48px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; letter-spacing: 0.1em; line-height: 1.4em; margin: 0.75em 0px; text-transform: uppercase;"></div>Jyohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13799343640305859521noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34244528.post-87520068693202538162021-09-30T01:30:00.003-04:002021-09-30T01:30:31.949-04:00Hurricane Sam and Tropical Storm Victor: 29 September, Update A<p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">Hurricane Sam-I-Am is still out there, gobbling up as many green eggs and ham as he can find I suspect. I, too, had green eggs for breakfast once. That was the delightful delicacy I and my fellow young seafarers were served as part of our equator crossing ceremony many moons ago. :-) </span></span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif; font-size: 16px;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgpPfe48_lSx7m-83WRjcD-3hrgirwsFrMOJFf_bsLxBT5rgeGTZTm8ErAjpNXpthHCmY04wuy3f1Tixu8JH6ha8ASPGXZPEHxGfZntziMldS20gW79bloMP_x2kAbe1n_h7ggh/s2048/816UTq6HJKL.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2045" data-original-width="2048" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgpPfe48_lSx7m-83WRjcD-3hrgirwsFrMOJFf_bsLxBT5rgeGTZTm8ErAjpNXpthHCmY04wuy3f1Tixu8JH6ha8ASPGXZPEHxGfZntziMldS20gW79bloMP_x2kAbe1n_h7ggh/s320/816UTq6HJKL.jpeg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif; font-size: 16px;"><b>Hurricane Sam-I-Am</b></span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif; font-size: 16px;">So, what's he up to today? He's at 20.6N, 58.4W, heading NW at 12mph and should still clear Bermuda by a couple of hundred miles or so on Friday night: </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgiH13-w1cOMVdWrnhQg86aDiANXZ5FFRuS3-r-VuxrY9u5tUwXx1zxXPwwkJ8voyOoUKIitAngpPvJ6mBb9vvP5lw6R8JF4Q5Ozu898kzAyZZAbs3tzpTNmNIf-WOkgQmDBoAm/s897/025421_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="736" data-original-width="897" height="329" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgiH13-w1cOMVdWrnhQg86aDiANXZ5FFRuS3-r-VuxrY9u5tUwXx1zxXPwwkJ8voyOoUKIitAngpPvJ6mBb9vvP5lw6R8JF4Q5Ozu898kzAyZZAbs3tzpTNmNIf-WOkgQmDBoAm/w400-h329/025421_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif; font-size: 16px;">But what he does after Saturday is quite a bit more uncertain. There is a small chance that he could head a little closer towards Newfoundland than the current track shows, but it's a tad too soon to say. </span><p></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif; font-size: 16px;">He is a mid-to-strong Cat 4 storm at the moment with winds of 145mph, central pressure of 940mb (cat 4 range: 130-156mph). There isn't any wind shear, he is over some deliciously warm water of around 28 deg C, the dry air is no longer a factor, so he is quite good looking with a lovely clear eye: </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgDIq8yZ98rf3S3ujlilaZNqnd8wN3nnhEOf770gsApk3MJP0OGQ25yZphxKyjktN_5OPD3id1mUopYHOtqC807OgURpRdagSO0unYUEn4RBH4R0oVEZ5ICfsOI9tJC_OA8UEg6/s500/floater_floater_AL182021_band13_24fr_20210930-0112.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="500" data-original-width="500" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgDIq8yZ98rf3S3ujlilaZNqnd8wN3nnhEOf770gsApk3MJP0OGQ25yZphxKyjktN_5OPD3id1mUopYHOtqC807OgURpRdagSO0unYUEn4RBH4R0oVEZ5ICfsOI9tJC_OA8UEg6/w400-h400/floater_floater_AL182021_band13_24fr_20210930-0112.gif" width="400" /></a></div><br /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif; font-size: 16px;">But, he is kindly staying away from the Islands and just doing what he is supposed to be doing as a hurricane, which is to transfer heat energy, very effectively I might add, from the tropical areas to the northern parts of the world.</span><p></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif; font-size: 16px;"><b>Tropical Storm Victor</b></span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif; font-size: 16px;">We have another storm in the Atlantic - named today as Victor. You can see him in the satellite imagery: </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTHKOVzKE4QGrXWRJzkUGoQU8wfozhWlijlDsNXjFjTdoyCAHaYrf6m3xGGBSUyCYJLVSZsEmr-0BHOMCt5WKaYedZ9Mm6GKTKmk4XNE0ptNnXpa1Qqj4-oCvno8sEyiteH4Hd/s900/GOES16-TAW-13-900x540+%252814%2529.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="540" data-original-width="900" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTHKOVzKE4QGrXWRJzkUGoQU8wfozhWlijlDsNXjFjTdoyCAHaYrf6m3xGGBSUyCYJLVSZsEmr-0BHOMCt5WKaYedZ9Mm6GKTKmk4XNE0ptNnXpa1Qqj4-oCvno8sEyiteH4Hd/w400-h240/GOES16-TAW-13-900x540+%252814%2529.gif" width="400" /></a></div><br /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif; font-size: 16px;">He actually has a lot more convection (rain and thunder) than Sam, but he isn't as well developed yet. He is officially barely a TS with winds estimated to be 40mph, central pressure 1005mb (TS range: 39-74mph). I think he may be a little stronger than this because his circulation is quite robust in the lower half of the troposphere and there is some circulation in the upper levels of the troposphere which indicates he is approaching hurricane strength, but at least he is far out there and not bothering anyone. By the way, planes don't fly out that far so the intensity is only estimated. The reason we have a better idea of what Sam is doing is because of data that is coming back from planes that fly through the storm. This data helps improve the forecast models. </span><p></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif; font-size: 16px;"> Victor is at 8.4N, 26.7W, moving WNW at 13mph: </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhxGkVANtL6FAFqdRFRoa0qLHltzZjqR2o-467a4WynBO-QYEuDeDdtOKqjL37ReV3Yvpo6MhKP1CBHWoJrytzYUmAsLbla9X5mUF6gHSA6wg6HgIJ1rKEqLJVdoa3L9Bu9Wkpe/s897/024842_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="736" data-original-width="897" height="329" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhxGkVANtL6FAFqdRFRoa0qLHltzZjqR2o-467a4WynBO-QYEuDeDdtOKqjL37ReV3Yvpo6MhKP1CBHWoJrytzYUmAsLbla9X5mUF6gHSA6wg6HgIJ1rKEqLJVdoa3L9Bu9Wkpe/w400-h329/024842_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif; font-size: 16px;">And he will stay in the Atlantic, continuing to mind his own business. I will keep an eye on him, but may not write about Victor again unless he does something odd. </span><p></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif; font-size: 16px;">Toodle pip,</span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif; font-size: 16px;">J.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px;"><span style="font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif;">Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/</span></p><div class="post-body entry-content" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px 0px 0.75em;"><div style="line-height: 20.8px; margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif;">Twitter @JyovianStorm</span></div><p>--------------------------------------</p><div class="post-body entry-content" style="line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px 0px 0.75em;"><p>DISCLAIMER:</p><p>These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.</p></div></div>Jyohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13799343640305859521noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34244528.post-37416048506462218512021-09-29T02:04:00.003-04:002021-09-29T02:04:24.503-04:00Hurricane Sam: 28 September, Update A<p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif; font-size: 16px;">Don't you think that some days are astounding, time is fleeting and with a bit of a mind flip, you're into the time slip? It's only been about a week since I last checked in with Tropical Storms Peter and Rose (they didn't do much). But what a time warp these few days turned out to be - Peter and Rose seem like a month ago! In the last few days very weak Subtropical Storm Teresa popped up and promptly ran away after 24 hours (also didn't do much), and now we have major Hurricane Sam and the future Victor and Wanda on the eastern Atlantic horizon. </span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif; font-size: 16px;">Hurricane Sam is a major mid-sized cat 4 storm with winds of 140mph, central pressure of 944mb (cat 4 range: 130-156mph). He is currently at 18.4N, 55.6W, heading NW at 9mph. Fortunately, he is going to stay away from land, passing closest to Bermuda on Friday night, but avoiding the island... </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjD0cuP1h75FwngMivLmdolWW8c6D47HtZYgorG6LayKS4_82rcCS2Wu7AbRGiZnGR4dZ0zKi7BylFzGgZEtB6MR2SEUQc98WLoV8aH-CK1V01kdK3UZjscjJx-b48uI2oGYuem/s897/023545_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="736" data-original-width="897" height="329" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjD0cuP1h75FwngMivLmdolWW8c6D47HtZYgorG6LayKS4_82rcCS2Wu7AbRGiZnGR4dZ0zKi7BylFzGgZEtB6MR2SEUQc98WLoV8aH-CK1V01kdK3UZjscjJx-b48uI2oGYuem/w400-h329/023545_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif; font-size: 16px;">He was big, but although there is still circulation (vorticity) throughout the troposphere, he looks a little weaker at the moment because of dry air in the mid-levels of the atmosphere. The eye is certainly not as clear as it should be for a cat 4 storm: </span><p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEikUSXpKUskIFyXczdUYRV3soJKgBJdRDnYpJVRM61ULIFEnNSXxXppCWPbYtdqio1r8SN3eXuPKiEOOxcGc7W6DOJtMqW1xdpeyAkVKAwDMmPKhrl75oenHT4iQqTUpamlHemM/s1000/GOES16-CAR-13-1000x1000+Sam.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1000" data-original-width="1000" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEikUSXpKUskIFyXczdUYRV3soJKgBJdRDnYpJVRM61ULIFEnNSXxXppCWPbYtdqio1r8SN3eXuPKiEOOxcGc7W6DOJtMqW1xdpeyAkVKAwDMmPKhrl75oenHT4iQqTUpamlHemM/w400-h400/GOES16-CAR-13-1000x1000+Sam.gif" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgBOqECG8JH573XrPlXM6a-toHg3HdKUMYFvYwKqXNJxxSnH1xChY7hmFVKNQCjHG_8eKVcd-wRBwyrjKGEwOlBw_AaXoKT6ZgkI0jmbkUKGllrdz0YJdnyQ8RRztnsqAJpANke/s1000/GOES16-CAR-08-1000x1000+Sam.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1000" data-original-width="1000" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgBOqECG8JH573XrPlXM6a-toHg3HdKUMYFvYwKqXNJxxSnH1xChY7hmFVKNQCjHG_8eKVcd-wRBwyrjKGEwOlBw_AaXoKT6ZgkI0jmbkUKGllrdz0YJdnyQ8RRztnsqAJpANke/w400-h400/GOES16-CAR-08-1000x1000+Sam.gif" width="400" /></a></div><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif; font-size: 16px;"><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif; font-size: 16px;">And for a close up... </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPSWft6OG30Wdw-pWblEiAETA6u-VgPaH3ceBVExgvsZQ-Mwytlcid_xjYYfSxzCjzCkFJrfuMfxKgnMjxCpk988mZQvXmnrQyHZ7RLAHJ4ONGDNxAkWZorrfBozKs8QAPMewJ/s1000/20212720500_GOES16-ABI-FL-11-AL182021-1000x1000.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1000" data-original-width="1000" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPSWft6OG30Wdw-pWblEiAETA6u-VgPaH3ceBVExgvsZQ-Mwytlcid_xjYYfSxzCjzCkFJrfuMfxKgnMjxCpk988mZQvXmnrQyHZ7RLAHJ4ONGDNxAkWZorrfBozKs8QAPMewJ/w400-h400/20212720500_GOES16-ABI-FL-11-AL182021-1000x1000.jpeg" width="400" /></a></div><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh5_rifTa7qFRoy5KSYeJg_J5J1bFREx-i0WHjuUl7usbuOLP2ppO3UFZSSdBqNgCXqxXoFySQJq-KKgz5XCUtIZ4dnXtSErzAESo7-RyXtlBnin9-kz_tErKmuXfnKv-O7yyok/s1000/20212720500_GOES16-ABI-FL-09-AL182021-1000x1000.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1000" data-original-width="1000" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh5_rifTa7qFRoy5KSYeJg_J5J1bFREx-i0WHjuUl7usbuOLP2ppO3UFZSSdBqNgCXqxXoFySQJq-KKgz5XCUtIZ4dnXtSErzAESo7-RyXtlBnin9-kz_tErKmuXfnKv-O7yyok/w400-h400/20212720500_GOES16-ABI-FL-09-AL182021-1000x1000.jpeg" width="400" /></a></div><p>I would put him as a cat 3 for now really, but he has time and room to intensify again to cat 4 storm in the next day or so because waters are warm and there is little wind shear. </p><p>The major effects will be in the waves and surf reaching the Caribbean, but also Bermuda and perhaps even the US East coast. Perfect for all of you surfers out there! </p></span><p></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif; font-size: 16px;">He's been a major storm (cat 3 or higher) since Saturday (it's now Tuesday here) - oscillating between a cat 3 (range: 111-129mph) and a cat 4. In case you need a reminder of what that looks like...</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjtooWxKeoMovyAndxA5NLPjWSpd6O5YvVp9n6wwlUGGtzRUKDMgabXndMFYMiVOHzo3B43a4QPwfOcqgRXWolphMzffyBSngLI627f4hQU0Pt5crplsUrwe7EfuwON3vwe4qrA/s584/5d6949efcaea2.image.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="582" data-original-width="584" height="399" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjtooWxKeoMovyAndxA5NLPjWSpd6O5YvVp9n6wwlUGGtzRUKDMgabXndMFYMiVOHzo3B43a4QPwfOcqgRXWolphMzffyBSngLI627f4hQU0Pt5crplsUrwe7EfuwON3vwe4qrA/w400-h399/5d6949efcaea2.image.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">That's all for today, but I'm back and will be back (with Victor to talk about tomorrow too I suspect)! :-)</span></span><p></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">Ciao for now,</span></span></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">J.</span></span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif; font-size: 16px;">Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/</span></p><div class="post-body entry-content" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px 0px 0.75em;"><div style="line-height: 20.8px; margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif;">Twitter @JyovianStorm</span></div><p>--------------------------------------</p><div class="post-body entry-content" style="line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px 0px 0.75em;"><p>DISCLAIMER:</p><p>These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.</p></div></div>Jyohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13799343640305859521noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34244528.post-10396583714325416132021-09-20T00:54:00.005-04:002021-09-20T00:54:54.230-04:00Tropical Storms Peter and Rose: 19 September, Update A<p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif; font-size: 16px;">Oh dear, I pop off for 11 days and Mother Nature decided to have a field day! Although I see I missed a few stormlets in the last 1.5 weeks, a couple of them would not have been worth mentioning anyway. A quick recap:</span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif; font-size: 16px;">Julian - a Tropical Storm that lasted 28 hours and remained in the Atlantic. </span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif; font-size: 16px;">Mindy - a Tropical Storm that lasted about 32 hours, made landfall in the Florida panhandle as barely a Tropical Storm with winds of 45mph (TS range: 39-73mph). </span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif; font-size: 16px;">Nicholas - a proper storm which skirted the Texas coast and made landfall as a very weak cat 1 Hurricane last Monday (13 Sept). </span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif; font-size: 16px;">Odette - a Tropical Storm that lasted for 24 hours and remained in the Atlantic. </span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif; font-size: 16px;">In ye olde days, we may never have even seen Julian or Odette as they were so titchy, shortlived, and in out there in the Atlantic. </span></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">We now have two more very small storms lurking out there... Peter and Rose. </span></span></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><b>Tropical Storm Peter</b></span></span></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">Peter was named this morning. He is currently at 18.6N, 58.5W, heading WNW at 14mph and will easily clear the leeward islands tomorrow and won't cause too much fuss:</span></span></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgLr3zUU_cF1flViN83l0z6g6x0dDZqHrR9U7Qp2Qcls4WyGyb4O5EfWKP9gPeewRMFJWJ0eaYDRRaEKrG90aDXAc5SP0ohdN8uJDbacjt0BY-HZ_V4mnXDDEANphoGZAnBCD7y/s897/025157_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="736" data-original-width="897" height="329" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgLr3zUU_cF1flViN83l0z6g6x0dDZqHrR9U7Qp2Qcls4WyGyb4O5EfWKP9gPeewRMFJWJ0eaYDRRaEKrG90aDXAc5SP0ohdN8uJDbacjt0BY-HZ_V4mnXDDEANphoGZAnBCD7y/w400-h329/025157_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png" width="400" /></a></span></div><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"><br /><span style="background-color: white;">He is currently a relatively weak Tropical Storm with winds of 50mph, central pressure of 1004 mb and is forecast to weaken by Wednesday. There is circulation in the lower half of the troposphere, but wind shear is pretty strong so it doesn't look likely that he will intensify too much. There is some strong convection in the system, but that is because he is over warm water:</span></span><p></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"></span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqfpm08_Zue_R0dDbsaQygZ9_jzcMOudjT6NW4p2euG4dbucf9cXI3uIoRfoBXDagXYVUr6HjRJTwIo3M6_twtVeWMv_tS4CAAUU2qfuOhSLbC6RMxlQdaMail5bhF-Fo92FLR/s900/GOES16-TAW-13-900x540+%252813%2529.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="540" data-original-width="900" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqfpm08_Zue_R0dDbsaQygZ9_jzcMOudjT6NW4p2euG4dbucf9cXI3uIoRfoBXDagXYVUr6HjRJTwIo3M6_twtVeWMv_tS4CAAUU2qfuOhSLbC6RMxlQdaMail5bhF-Fo92FLR/w400-h240/GOES16-TAW-13-900x540+%252813%2529.gif" width="400" /></a></span></div><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"><br /> </span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">I'll keep an eye on Peter, but unless he makes a run for it and does something silly, I will not mention him again. </span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif;"> </span><p></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"><b>Tropical Storm Rose</b></span></span></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">Tropical Storm Rose is going to remain east of Peter and is currently at 15.3N, 31.1W, heading NW at 16mph:</span></span></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjocWMUsOQZbX4NQ_N8St1xMpi02siG8ereoWCPv00MAaw8kyAVHpA5fQs4z55yO2AEHm4muswyb55G3siWcGM7Nozh5siOohns2ZCrtlyurAVQLsZynDnLNxHfiniaY0upnrlm/s897/025114_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="736" data-original-width="897" height="329" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjocWMUsOQZbX4NQ_N8St1xMpi02siG8ereoWCPv00MAaw8kyAVHpA5fQs4z55yO2AEHm4muswyb55G3siWcGM7Nozh5siOohns2ZCrtlyurAVQLsZynDnLNxHfiniaY0upnrlm/w400-h329/025114_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png" width="400" /></a></span></div><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;">This means she will stay out in the Atlantic and not be too much bother to anyone either. <span style="background-color: white;">She was named this morning and although she has some convection (which we can see in the satellite imagery above), she is barely a Tropical Storm with winds of 40mph, estimated central pressure 1005mb. She is currently in an area of low wind shear so she could intensify a little, but there is some dry air to her west and north so that will hold her in check a little. </span></span></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">I'll keep an eye on Rose as well, but as she doesn't look like she's going towards any land I may not mention her again either. </span></span></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">I'll be back when Sam (the next one in line) is around. </span></span></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">Toodle pip for now!</span></span></p><p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: georgia, times new roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">J. </span></span></p><p></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif; font-size: 16px;">Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/</span></p><div class="post-body entry-content" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px 0px 0.75em;"><div style="line-height: 20.8px; margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif;">Twitter @JyovianStorm</span></div><p>--------------------------------------</p><div class="post-body entry-content" style="line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0px 0px 0.75em;"><p>DISCLAIMER:</p><p>These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.</p></div></div>Jyohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13799343640305859521noreply@blogger.com0