Wednesday, September 23, 2020

Post-Tropical Storms Teddy, Beta, and Paulette: September 22, Update A

What a year! A very sad milestone was crossed in the US today but things are, at least, looking up in the Atlantic... 

...where I see that the X-Men have vanquished all tropical cyclones. (And in case you were wondering, of course these X-Men are related to 'Storm'! ;-)). 

Post-Tropical Storm Teddy 

He's currently at 42.8N, 63.9W, heading N at 18mph. He'll be over Nova Scotia in a few hours.

It's a bit breezy there at the moment. Maximum winds are 80mph, central pressure is 957mb - which is very low for a cat 1 hurricane, which is what he would be if he wasn't extra-tropical in form now. It'll be mostly windy with some rain - not so much the thundery weather in this case. We can see this from the infrared satellite imagery:


Be safe up there in the north my friends. Let me know how you fare! 

Post-Tropical Storm Beta 

He made landfall in Texas, about 5 miles north of Port O'Connor, late last night as a weak Tropical Storm with winds of 45mph (TS range: 39-73mph). As expected, his was a weak windy but more rainy sort of affair and he's flooded parts of Houston (they are quite prone to flooding, alas). He's now at somewhere inland and was last seen as a Tropical Depression with winds of 30mph. This is my last entry on Beta. 

Post-Tropical Storm Paulette

Paulette is now pretty much a Tropical Depression as well, although winds are officially 40mph, central pressure is 1006mb, which puts her right at that TD/TS border. She's at 34.8N, 20W, heading E at 12mph. I think she'll fizzle out before Friday.

I think this will be my last update on Paulette as well. 

Depending on how Teddy behaved, I may pop in tomorrow. Otherwise, I'll be back for the next one (Gamma). 

Toodle pip! 

J.

Twitter:  

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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know. 
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Tuesday, September 22, 2020

Hurricane Teddy, Tropical Storms Beta and Paulette: September 21, Update A

Ah-ha... 

He should have stuck to writing. ;-) 

Hurricane Teddy

He's on his way towards Canada and passed around 165miles east of Bermuda early this afternoon with winds of 90mph, which made him a mid-to-strong cat 1 storm (cat 1: 74-95mph). He brought some rain to the island, and maybe a bit of a breeze. He's currently at 34.6N, 61.4W, heading N at 26mph.


That really rapid forward speed of 26mph is a sign that he's not really a tropical cyclone but has been caught up in that low pressure front and is really extratropical (or post-tropical). He has been tracking to the east of the Cone of Uncertainty and the track has shifted slightly to the east. I'm not sure how much more to the east his official track will shift, but most of the effects will be to the east, so it'll be a quite a 'breezy' Wednesday with some rain in Nova Scotia. 

Winds are now 100mph, central pressure is 956mb, which makes him a cat 2 storm again. This is because he is going over the Gulf Stream - but more than that, it's because of the low pressure front he is interacting with in the atmosphere. 

His circulation is now no longer that of a tropical storm at any level of the troposphere, but he does have a lot of vorticity from the low pressure front (or trough as it's called). You can see this in the vorticity maps. Here's the lowest level (850mb):


Here's the vorticity map in the mid-troposphere (500mb):

And here's the map from the upper level of the troposphere (200mb):


Definitely part of a longer low pressure front. He doesn't have much convection now either... 


But it's easier to see his clouds on a larger satellite image:


Be safe up there!

Tropical Storm Beta

He's just about 5 miles east of Port O'Connor, TX, and is officially at 28.4N, 96.3W, heading NW at that very slow 3mph... along the coast. We just saw this with Sally, except now it's along the Texas coast. The big difference between the two storms is that his a very weak Tropical Storm, not a hurricane. 

Winds are 45mph, central pressure is 999mb so he is very weak (TS range: 39-73mph). You can see the circulation in the vorticity maps above - there is some in the lowest level but the mid-level doesn't have a good circular structure, so borderline Tropical Storm/Tropical Depression seems about right and winds should decrease even further when he's over land. 

There isn't much convection - just what is being pulled off locally really: 


Hopefully he'll be a good sort of little storm - bringing rain, but not too much, and not too much wind either.  

Tropical Storm Paulette

And she's baaack... Remember Hurricane Paulette? She was the one that went directly over Bermuda a week ago. Well, she turned to the northeast after that, decreased to a blobette again, went over to the Europe side, headed south past the Azores, and has just re-formed south of the Azores. She's now at 33.9N, 25.3W, heading ENE at 16mph. 


Looks like she really wants to go to Europe, but apparently may not get there because of lockdowns. There's not much convection and if you look at the vorticity maps, you can see that there isn't a proper structure to this storm other than in the very lowest level of the troposphere. Winds are officially 60mph, central pressure is 1004mb, which officially makes her a mid-size Tropical Storm, but I think that's partly because of the atmosphere and upper tropospheric level low pressure area. 

I think that's it for today folks!

Ciao for now!

J.

Twitter:  

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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know. 
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Sunday, September 20, 2020

Hurricane Teddy and Tropical Storm Beta: September 20, Update A

Sunday evening... ho hum. 

Hurricane Teddy

He's currently at 29.3N, 63.4W, heading N at 9mph. His outer bands are already passing over Bermuda - just a bit of a breeze and a couple of drops of rain. 


Winds are now 105mph, central pressure is 964mb. This makes him a mid-sized cat 2 hurricane (cat 2 range: 96 - 110mph). We can see he is steadily weakening from his convection:


This infrared satellite image shows mostly green-blues which means that the cloud tops are not as high as before (see the <Science Alert!> and <Technical Alert!> here in case you need a refresher on why that is important), which in turn means that the storm isn't quite as strong as it was even a few hours ago. He still has circulation throughout the troposphere, so I would agree with his hurricane status. His eye is wavering so I would put him at around strong cat 1/weak cat 2 intensity. 

Now, beyond Bermuda the track currently takes him to Nova Scotia and the forecast with winds of 100mph. There is a low pressure front that has been moving eastward from US east coast (actually, it's the same one that TS Beta was caught up in a few days ago - you can see the transition if you look at the vorticity maps from the last few days). The front is almost at Bermuda now, as we see in the vorticity map from the lowest levels of the troposphere (850mph): 


This front (you can see it as that line of higher vorticity stretching to the northeast) is what is going to cause Teddy to move to the northeast a little over the next ~20 hours. They don't think that's enough to keep him on a northeastward track (although I'm not so sure of this). However, higher up in the troposphere is another larger area of low pressure that is currently over Canada, and you can see that in the 500mb (mid-troposphere) map:

He's going to head towards this (once he crosses that first lower troposphere front), and will essentially merge with it - this is when he will actually no longer be a tropical cyclone but a post-tropical storm (or extratropical storm as we used to call them in the good olde days) because he won't be getting his energy from the warm ocean waters (because he'll be over cooler waters). But this system will have a lot of energy from the atmosphere - so he'll still essentially have hurricane-force winds. Not a hurricane per se, but strong enough. The question is how far south from Nova Scotia will he be before he merges and moves off the the northeast. The models are in pretty good agreement that he'll make landfall in Nova Scotia with winds of 105mph. I think he may stay south of Canada (staying on the east side of the Cone of Uncertainty), but some of the winds may still reach the coastline there. I'd get ready for a very blustery sort of day up there, friends! 

Tropical Storm Beta

He's officially at 27.6N, 94.5W, heading WNW at 6mph. He's less than a day from landfall and the NHC expect that to be in Texas, somewhere around Port O'Connor as a Tropical Storm with winds of 50mph, which means he'll be a relatively weak storm. However, the track then has him skirting the coast, as aa Tropical Depression, so it may be breezy sort of week. 

He does have circulation in the lower half of the troposphere, although it's not very circular in structure, but I do think he's closer to being a Tropical Storm today than he has been over the last couple of days. Officially winds are 60mph, central pressure is 995mb, which makes him a mid-sized Tropical Storm (TS range: 39-74mph). The convection has really decreased in the last few hours because of dry air:

I'm not convinced that they have the correct center of circulation - without the convective weather, the satellite imagery seems to show a center that's closer to 28N, 93W - a little more to the east of the official center. However, they sent a plane into the system and that's what they found. I think he's so weak and has such a poor structure that it may just be difficult to find an actual center - I'm not sure he's as strong as they think he is given this poor convection. However, there is a chance that the convection will increase again before landfall tomorrow - we'll see tomorrow. 

That's it for today. Happy Rosh Hashanah!

Ciao for now!

J.

Twitter:  

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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know. 
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Hurricane Teddy, Tropical Storms Wilfred and Beta: September 19, Update A

Lychee martini night here in Los Angeles. :-) So jumping straight in (to the storms... I've already jumped straight into the martinis of course! ;-)... 

Hurricane Teddy 

He's currently at 27.3N, 61.2W, heading NW at 13mph and is still on track to be passing Bermuda - although it looks like he'll be a bit slower and pass by on Monday morning. 

Winds are now 115mph, central pressure is 956mb, which makes him a very weak cat 3 storm (cat 3 range: 111-129mph). He's been declining since yesterday's dry air started to enter the system. He's very much a hurricane still because his circulation is strong throughout the troposphere - although the middle level vorticity is no longer the structure we would expect to see with a storm. But I think he's weaker than the official intensity - I think he may even be weaker than a cat 2 now because as of a few hours ago, there was no longer an eye, so I would say his winds are at the most 90mph: 


He is a big storm though (in aerial extent) and will pass close(ish) to Bermuda so you will get a bit of a breeze and some jolly waves, even if you don't get rain. 

Tropical Storm Wilfred

He's at 14.5N, 40.5W, heading WNW at 16mph. He has some circulation in the lowest level of the troposphere, but it's disjointed in the middle troposphere. I still wouldn't really call him a Tropical Storm. His winds are officially 40mph, central pressure is 1007mb, so he's barely a TS (TS range: 39-73mph) and his convection continues to remain very weak: 


He's anticipated to officially remain a Tropical Storm tomorrow and then become a Tropical Depression by Monday. I think he's already a Tropical Depression, but as he's not going near anyone, it doesn't matter too greatly. I think this will be my last update on Wilfred (unless something goes awry tomorrow). 

Tropical Storm Beta

He's at 26.9N, 92.4W, heading N at a very slow 2mph. 


The center has shifted to the north and east during the day today, which means his track also shifted slightly northward. This is because he really was part of a low pressure front that extended northeastward. A plane that flew through the storm today found that "The strongest winds appear to be located near on old frontal boundary which extends north and east of Beta's center"

The vorticity map today shows that his circulation is becoming better defined in the lowest part of the troposphere, but is still part of a front that extends to the northeast towards AL/FL/GA, so he's still not really a Tropical Storm today either (in my sometimes-not-very-humble opinion ;-)). Here's the map from the lowest level of the troposphere:


And here's the one from the mid-troposphere (500mb):


There is a lot of wind shear, which we can see in the wind shear map - along that low pressure front line:


 And we can see this in the satellite imagery as well:

I think the 'center' may be found a little more to the north and east tomorrow because he really is a front and not a tropical storm, but we'll see. Regardless, most of the weather is obviously streaming off to the northeast. 

And finally, the remains of Paulette still linger - now she has a 60% chance of reforming. However, she is part of a low pressure system that stretches into Europe, so it would be very silly to say she's a TS yet! 

Right, off to sleep now. And of course, after the 4.6 magnitude quake last night, tonight... 


:-) 

Until tomorrow!

J.

Twitter:  

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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know. 
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Saturday, September 19, 2020

Hurricane Teddy, Tropical Storms Wilfred, Alpha, and Beta: September 18, Update A

Today is brought to you by the number Three. 

R.I.P. to the truly iconic R.B.G....

(Image credits: Damon Dahlen/Huffpost; Photos: Getty)

She said: "Some of my favorite opinions are dissenting opinions." and "You can disagree without being disagreeable."

This nicely sets the stage for the next thing I bring to you by the number Three. 

The NHC named three storms today. <Very Minor Rant Alert!>Although it is too late and the deed is done, I disagree (without being disagreeable of course) with this silliness because one should definitely not have been named, one is more of a front than a storm, and the third has pretty poor structure for a Tropical Storm. This is not the first time that three storms have been named on the same day, by the way. Back in the 1890's three were identified (pre-naming thought) - and that's in an era without airplanes. Actually, until around the 1940s there weren't planes, let alone satellites, so who knows how many were missed! If we didn't have satellites today, at least 2 of the three today would not have been named either. <End of Very Minor Rant Alert!>

But first, let's look at the only actual important storm out there...

Hurricane Teddy

He is at 24N, 57.4W, heading NW at 13mph. Bermuda is in the clear and well outside the Cone of Uncertainty. Well done, Bermuda! I think this track is pretty good at least until Bermuda because it's so narrow. Beyond that it is still all over the place - there's a good possibility that he'll stay on a more eastward track after Bermuda and barely clip Newfoundland - i.e. staying to the east side of the Cone. But get ready regardless up there! 

As for intensity, winds are 130mph, central pressure is 948mb. This makes him a borderline Cat 4/cat 3 storm (cat 4 range: 130-156mph). I think he's weaker than this - I'd place him on the cat 2/cat 3 border actually - with winds of around 111mph at the most. His convection took a bit of a hit from that dry air I mentioned yesterday, combined with that little bit of wind shear:


You can see that his strong eye clear eye, very classic for a cat 4 or 5 storm, closed up and an area of drier air intruded and has also reduced the convection in his outer bands. That wind shear will continue for another day or so I reckon, and he still has drier air to his west that will continue to get pulled into him:

Ideally, this would knock him down a few pegs, but his circulation is still strong throughout the troposphere, and until that decreases, he can still recover that convection. So, the thing to watch is really the vorticity in the upper levels of the troposphere and see if that decreases tomorrow. 

To show you the circulation of a hurricane, here are the vorticity maps showing the circulation in the lowest section of the troposphere (850mb):


Here's the map from the mid-troposphere (500mb):

And here's the map from the upper troposphere (200mb):


Teddy definitely has the circulation structure of a Hurricane and a fairly strong one at that. 

Tropical Storm Wilfred
They ended up naming that Atlantic Blob with 40% as TS Wilfred today! He has some circulation in the lower half of the troposphere, but it's not well developed as we can see from the vorticity above - the lowest level is still not a stand-alone circular region - it spreads out (the yellow part).

Officially, they estimate him to be at 12.8N, 36W, heading WNW at 18mph. And he should peter out by Monday morning, so a weekend visitor really. 

Winds are 40mph, central pressure is estimated to be 1008mb. This means he's barely a Tropical Storm (and should not have been named!). His convection is very weak for a Tropical Storm...

I really disagree with naming this one today. But it gets worse...

The non-existent Tropical Storm Alpha
I don't know who was manning the stations today, but they were on a role! This one was really made up in my opinion!!! (Three exclamation marks worth of dissent right there). 

First, she formed off the coast of Portugal... a TROPICAL Storm formed in waters a couple of degrees cooler than 26 deg C, at a latitude that is well outside the tropics. I don't think that's tropical! 

Second, they named this one ~2 hours before she made landfall! Really? And then they stopped the advisories because she fell apart quickly.  

Third, there was no tropical storm structural circulation in the atmosphere at any level! There is, however, a massive low pressure area that is still there, all the way across Spain and into France, and into the Atlantic. Here are the vorticity maps from a few hours ago at the 850mb level (the lowest):

(First, find Portugal) This map shows the only time where there was even remotely a red circular-ish vorticity patch in this lowest level of the troposphere - however even at this time, it was still connected to a much broader area of low pressure that extended from Spain into the Atlantic. On either side of this snapshot, the map looked like this:

And the vorticity was not circular, but rather elongated connected to other patches of high vorticity - low pressure systems. And as for the mid-troposphere, that's even more of a low pressure system, and not a tropical storm:

That is the vorticity map that corresponds to the one when she 'formed'. That is most definitely NOT a Tropical Storm structure!

So that's Alpha as a name that's wasted. And that takes us to the third mistake...

Tropical Storm Beta

This is the one that was TD 22 in the Gulf of Mexico yesterday. It is currently at 25.8N, 92.2W, heading NNE at 12mph. Looks like he may scrape along the Texas coast on Tuesday - this will be another messy, soggy storm so get ready for that if that path really does materialize. 


Again, this one doesn't have the structure of a Tropical Storm as you can see from the vorticity maps above. The vorticity in the lower half of the troposphere is elongated - and in the mid-tropopshere, it actually extends northeastward towards LA/MS/AL/FL and then up to North Carolina - which means it's actually a low pressure front! 

Winds are officially 60mph, central pressure is 996mb, which officially makes this a mid-size Tropical Storm (TS range: 39-74mph). I'm really not convinced of this but as it's relatively close to the coast and this data was from a plane, I'll go with it. However, I don't think they have been measuring in the right locations within the storm given how elongated it is. 

You can see the mess that this is in the infrared satellite imagery: 

There is a lot of convection which is to be expected as this is over very warm 30 deg C water, with the upper 75m plus warmer than 26 deg C. But you can also see different areas of very strong convective outbursts - which is why I'm not sure they have the center in the right place (because it doesn't really have a center). There is a lot of wind shear which we can also see in the satellite imagery as the clouds and rainy weather is being swept up towards the northeast. We'll see if that circulation actually becomes more circular tomorrow but today it's messy. 

And there's one more Blobette in the Atlantic - this is actually the remains of Hurricane Paulette, and is approaching the Azores. So, this would be Paulette if it re-forms. Currently, 40% chance.

That's it for today. What a messy sort of a day indeed - I still can't believe that they named some of these storms today... maybe they are really really tired at the NHC from all that activity last week. Not enough ice cream in their freezers perhaps? 

Toodle pip for now,

J.

p.s. and just as I was posting this on twitter, we had a 4.8 or 4.6 magnitude earthquake here (there are conflicting reports on magnitude) - that's the largest I've ever felt! A lot of shaking and things rattling! 

Twitter:  

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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know. 
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Friday, September 18, 2020

Hurricane Teddy, Gulf of Mexico Blob: September 17, Update A

Public Service Announcement: Time Travel Alert! (this is a Dr. Who-friendly blog after all). Hurricane Teddy is now a category 4 storm in the Atlantic, but I don't want you to confuse this storm with the cat 4 Hurricane Teddy from 2032. Yes, you read that correctly...  from 2032. 

I found a 'Hypothetical Hurricanes' mock wikipedia-style website (Fandom) and an article on the 2032 Hurricane Teddy that makes landfall in Florida in 2032. The page also says, re Canada, "Teddy never made landfall, but passed close to the coast. 75 mph gusts were recorded near Nova Scotia, and weak storm surge flooded some areas." 

I can barely keep up with the storms of today, let alone the future! :-) Will the real Hurricane Teddy please stand up... 

Hurricane Teddy

He's currently at 20.9N, 54.7W, heading NW at 12mph. The track has shifted to the east of Bermuda, which is groov-i-licious, but they aren't quite out of the Cone of Uncertainty and he's expected to be in the vicinity in around 4 days. And it does look like he'll head to Nova Scotia after that, however, that track is quite uncertain so it's possible that he'll pass close to the coast with winds of 75mph and not make landfall...! (hmm...)


The big news is that he has winds of 140mph, central pressure of 945mb which makes him a mid-sized cat 4 storm (cat 4 range: 130-156mph). I finally agree with the NHC on the intensity of this storm. This now makes him a major hurricane (cat 3 or higher). He's an impressive storm and has had a good eye for the past few hours with no sign of wavering, which is classic for a cat 3 or higher storm:

There is a little wind shear, which you can see as the clouds are streaming off to the east. However, he's strong enough that this isn't going to do much. Water temperatures are over 28 deg C, with the upper ~75m of the water column being warmer than 26 deg C. The only thing I see that will keep him a little in check (at around this intensity) is that there is some dry air to his west and to the north:

The circulation is really good throughout the troposphere and you can clearly see his strong structure in the vorticity maps. Here's the map from the lowest level of the troposphere at 850mb: 
Here's the vorticity map from the mid-troposphere at 500mb: 
And here's the map from the upper troposphere at 200mb: 

More tomorrow on Teddy! 

Tropical Depression 22

Yesterday he was Gulf of Mexico Blob and tomorrow he will be Tropical Storm Wilfred. But for today, we have TD 22. He's now officially at 22N, 94.2W, heading NW at 3mph - yes, another slow storm! Luckily this one is in the middle of the Gulf and not hanging out near a coastline. 

Winds are officially 35mph, central pressure is 1005mb. From the vorticity maps above, you can see that there is some circulation in the lowest level of the troposphere, however at the mid-level it's not very 'circular' meaning the structure isn't quite right for a Tropical Storm yet - so I agree with the TD designation. He doesn't have much convection yet either, although it looks like he's trying: 

That convection is because he is over a warm water eddy - a smaller area of water where the upper ~100m is warmer than 26 deg C. Competing against this is some wind shear, which we can see with the clouds streaming off to the north. If he develops, it will be slowly because of that relatively strong wind shear. 

Medicane

And I thought I'd finish with a little note about the first Medicane of the season - Medicane Cassilda (Ianos). A Medicane is a tropical cyclone in the Mediterranean and one made landfall in Greece today:


I think it'll be a rainy and blustery sort of day over there! 

That's it for today. I know there's an Atlantic Blobette, which still has a 40% chance of development but I'll keep an eye on that one until something happens.  

Toodle pip!

J.

Twitter: jyovianstorm

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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know. 
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