Monday, August 26, 2013

Ex-Tropical Depression Fernand: August 26, Update A

Warning: do not read or discuss this if you are in proximity to any 5-year olds with access to the Mamma Mia soundtrack unless you really really really like ABBA! ;-)

Tropical Storm Fernand(o) behaved as expected… the NHC named him at 6.45pm CDT and by 11.45pm CDT they said he had made landfall about 40km NNW of Veracruz, Mexico. Estimated winds were 50mph at landfall, which means he officially went from a no-name Tropical Depression to a mid-strength storm in 5 hours, whilst interacting with land… ha, I don’t think so! Anyhoo, he is now officially ‘dissipated’ (too much tequila will do that to anyone! ;-)).  A very short lived Tropical Storm, but I still got my ABBA post in (heeheehee ß evil laughter).

How many ABBA song titles did you spot in yesterday's masterpiece? The answer is 18 (I think)…

1. Slipping Through My Fingers
2. Does Your Mother Know?
3. Another Town, Another Train
4. Arrival
5. I do, I do, I do, I do, I do
6. If It Wasn’t For The Nights
7. I Have A Dream (I think that line has already been taken)
8. Sitting In The Palmtree
9. When All Is Said And Done
10. The Name Of The Game
11. Watch Out
12. On And On And On (a bit like these ABBA songs)
13. Knowing Me, Knowing You
14. The Way Old Friends Do
15. So Long (yes, this list certainly is!)
16. Move On
17. Hasta Manana
18. Fernando (of course! ;-)).

Now to play ABBA Gold…

… again. J

This dancing queen will be back when the next blobette (Gabrielle) makes an appearance.

Toodle pip!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Sunday, August 25, 2013

Tropical Storm Fernand(o): August 25, Update B

Here’s my one small itsy bitsy window and I’m not going to let this go slipping through my fingers… how many ABBA song titles have I crammed into this one, and probably only, post on TS Fernand(o)? <big ABBA-Happy grin>

It will come as no surprise to you (if you read my last update), but does your mother know that TD6 got updated to TS Fernand(o) after the plane returned their findings? He is now at 19.2N, 95.8W, heading W at 9mph, with winds of 45mph, central pressure 1003mb. They say he will make landfall in about 11 hours, but maybe they are looking at another town, another train, because I think he may already be about to make his arrival in the state of Veracruz  when I look at this radar snapshot from Mexico. Really, I do, I do, I do, I do, I do!

If it wasn’t for the nights I would be able to show you a visible satellite image, but in this case a near-by radar is even better. I have a dream (a phrase oft-heard this week) that one day the storm updates will actually match what is going on in real-time! Maybe the NHC have been sitting in the palmtree today but when all is said and done, that’s not the name of the game. I hope the people in that part of Mexico were told to watch out!  I could go on and on and on about how slowly this storm was upgraded, and until it’s pretty much on land to boot, but knowing me, knowing you, the way old friends do, I’d better say so long now and move on.

Hasta manana!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Depression 6: August 25, Update A

Oh Mamma Mia! Be afraid. Be very afraid… of my updates with Abba references! ;-) Obviously the NHC is quivering at that thought! Their forecast shows that they plan on naming Tropical Storm Fernand(o) about 2 seconds before it makes landfall in Mexico tonight (and then they will downgrade it 3 seconds later). Naming it just before landfall is a bit silly (British understatement!).

They have just upgraded the southern Gulf of Mexico blob to Tropical Depression 6, but I think this is already weak Tropical Storm Fernand and has been for many hours (when they gave it a 70% chance it was already stronger than it is now)! I wish I’d grabbed a satellite image from this morning to show you, but here is one from about 3-4 hours ago and one I just grabbed from the website and you can see the convection is already beginning to fall apart!

The circulation has also decreased in the lower troposphere since this morning. They center is around 19.5N, 95.5W, and he’s heading W at 12mph. Winds are officially 35mph, central pressure is 1006mb. They really should have called this earlier today, not when it’s falling apart! They have sent a plane to confirm that this is a Tropical Storm for the next few hours. Sigh. Really? I like the planes and the data they provide, but really? You don’t need that to see what sort of storm this is! Sigh.

I think it’s wine-o-clock time!

Ciao for now,
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Sunday, August 18, 2013

The Low formerly known as Erin, the GOM Blob, and the new E. Atl. Blob: August 18, Update A

This will be short and sweet – perfect for a Sunday evening. J

Tropical Depression Erin was downgraded to a Low. Her convection decreased steadily during the day, and her circulation is now only good in the lowest portions of the troposphere, so I would agree with this.  This is my last update on Erin.

The Gulf of Mexico blob is still causing some ruckus in the Gulf, as expected. No circulation, just a bunch of thunderstorms and rainy weather. But he is getting closer and closer to the western edge of the Gulf and I expect the convection to subside within a couple of days. This will be my last update on this blob.

I see there is another blob that just came off Africa. Currently it has a 10% chance of developing. Currently the circulation is a mess with no definite structure in the atmosphere, and the convection is all over the place as you can see in this IR satellite image from about 12 hours ago:

I’ll keep an eye on it of course, but it’s way too soon to say if it will amount to any sort of apple in its mother’s eye. Next one is Fernand(o).

That’s it… just in time for second-glass-of-wine o’clock! ;-)  

Toodles until the next one!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Depression Erin and Gulf of Mexico Blob: August 17, Update A

I *have* to share this most amazingly unusual rendition of Ludwig van Beethovan’s 9th symphony!! It was posted by Phil Plait in one of his Bad Astronomy blog posts. <An aside> I met him once (Phil, not Ludwig) and I have a book signed by him (Phil, not Ludwig). In this book he promotes a B-movie website, Stomptokyo (http://www.stomptokyo.com/). One of the owners of Stomptokyo, Chris Holland, set up and helped me maintain this blog ...and thus you see virtual karma in action. J <End aside>  

Beethovan’s 9th is played on theremins, an electrical instrument that operates by sensing the electric field generated as your hand is waved around it – so there is no actual contact with the instrument. This is so cool that I might have to watch it again for the 10th time (today)… I do highly recommend watching this video! J  

Now that you have seen/heard great achievements by humans, back to great achievements by Mother Nature (although not so great in this case, fortunately!)… ;-)

Gulf of Mexico Blob

Our Gulf of Mexico blob wasn’t stuck for too long and was on the move earlier today. He has continued to deteriorate during the day and is so disorganized now that I can’t even see a center of circulation. Convection has also decreased this evening so although he will still be in the Gulf in some form tomorrow, I think we may not see anywhere near as much convection. Because he is over warmer waters he has generated more rain and thunderstorms than TS Erin today!

Tropical Depression Erin

She has officially been downgraded to a Tropical Depression with winds of 35mph, central pressure 1008mb. The forecast says she will have dissipated on Monday. She is moving WNW at 12mph, and is located at 20.7N, 37.7W.

Hmm. I’m not sure I agree with downgrading her to a Tropical Depression at the moment (maybe tomorrow). The circulation is still pretty good in the lower half of the troposphere and she is still generating some strong convection, albeit over a smaller area:

Erin is a pernicious little storm. There are a couple of factors working against her, but she’s still hanging on! First, she is experiencing some strong wind shear from the southwest causing the clouds to stream off to the northeast as you can see in the IR satellite image. Second, there is a lot of dry air surrounding her. However, sea surface water temperatures are around 26-27 deg C with waters warmer than 26.5 deg C in the upper 75m in some areas, which is enough to allow her to keep going. It does look like she’s going to head into an area of stronger wind shear tomorrow, which is why I think she’ll deteriorate further and may be a TD by tomorrow.   

Manana kiddos!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Saturday, August 17, 2013

Tropical Storm Erin and the Gulf of Mexico Blob: August 17, Update A

Friday night. Wine. Cheese. Wine. Dinner. Wine. Friends. Wine. Wine. More Food. Ice Cream (Pineapple Upside Down Cake Ice Cream!!)  Wine. Result: a rather entertaining evening and quick(ish) update. J

 

Tropical Storm Erin

The NHC decreased her to a Tropical Depression earlier today with winds of 30mph, but she's back up to being a weak Tropical Storm with winds of 40mph (TS range: 39-73mph), central pressure estimated to be 1006mb. I agree with her TS status. She is officially at 18.5N, 34.5N (it looks like both I and the NHC were a bit off in her track forecast yesterday). It looks like she is tracking a little east of the current center of cone estimate (maybe around 18.5N, 33.5N), so I wouldn't be surprised if her forecast track is moved slightly northward.

 

Her convection did take a bit of a hit today, but it has been on the increase over the last few hours. The NHC forecast keeps her as a weak storm with winds of 40mph, and by this time tomorrow they think she will be a Tropical Depression and deteriorate from there. This is quite possible. Although she is currently moving over waters of about 25-26 deg C (too cold to sustain her in the manner she is accustomed to), it looks like she will shortly move over warmer waters with surface temperatures of 26-27 deg C, and that water will be warmer than 26.5 deg C in the upper 50-75m of the water column. This warmer water will help keep her going. However, the atmosphere holds two potentially inhibiting factors in her future:  there is dry air to her west and the wind shear will increase quite a bit - both good reasons for her to weaken tomorrow.

 

Gulf of Mexico Blob

This little blob looked like he was going to fizzle out fairly quickly but there may be a bit of a hiccup in the making. Instead of zipping across the southern Gulf and into Mexico, he is currently stuck. There is some circulation throughout all levels of the troposphere, however there is also some wind shear from the southwest, so his center is in two different places depending on how high you look in the troposphere: It is either at 20.9N, 91.6W (low level) or at 22.5N, 90.5W (upper level). Another big inhibiting factor is the dry air to his west:

 

 

Sea surface temperatures are 29-31 deg C, which is definitely warm enough for him, with waters warmer than 26.5C in the upper ~50m. Officially the NHC give him a 40% chance of development, but they may increase this a bit tomorrow if he doesn't get his skates on! Stationary storms are always a little trickier to forecast than the usual tricky storms because while they are sitting there enjoying the view, the pressure fields around them are changing which means their track may not be as forecast. Hopefully this sitting around business is just for a handful of hours.  

 

That's it for tonight. I'll be awake and back tomorrow.

Night,

J.

 

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Friday, August 16, 2013

Tropical Storm Erin and the Caribbean Blob: August 15, Update A

Today is all about the number 35. I assume you heard the exciting news about the new species of animal that a team from the Smithsonian Institution found in the forests of Columbia and Ecuador, the Olinguito?

It is the first new carnivorous species to be discovered in the western hemisphere for 35 years and is, coincidentally, about 35 cm long. I saw it described today as a cross between a carnivorous teddy bear and a house cat... and all this time I’ve been operating under the premise that my house cats were carnivorous teddy bears!! Well at least that explains why they don’t like being thrown in the washing machine every couple of years, even if they do come out of the dryer fluffier than usual and smelling of fresh grass.

Also in the news today, there are rumours that my all-time favourite sci-fi tv show, Blake’s 7, is going to be re-made! Woohoo! A quality re-make is definitely long overdue!! It first aired in 1978… 35 years ago! J Drat, I should have bought a lottery ticket with 35 on it! Oh well.

I suppose I should say a couple of words about tropical storms now, huh? ;-)  

Tropical Storm Erin

As expected, she was upgraded to a weak Tropical Storm by the NHC and has remained one all day, with winds of 40mph (35 knots!) and a central pressure of 1007mb. She is currently at 15.5N, 29.1W, heading WNW at 15mph. Officially, Tropical Storm force winds extend out 35 miles from the center.

I would agree with the NHC in upgrading her to a named TS (even though they may have been a day late in doing this) and also in their assessment of how weak she was today. However it looks like she has weakened in the past few hours and no longer has very strong convection. There is still some good circulation in the lower half of the troposphere, but it is now connected to a low pressure trough. <Science Jargon Alert!> A low pressure trough is a line of lower pressure and vorticity (<jargon-in-jargon alert!> so very briefly, vorticity is a measure of how much circulation or spinning motion the atmosphere has. <end alert!>) as opposed to a circular area of low pressure (and vorticity). Tropical Storms are circular areas of low pressure. Sometimes you can see troughs in satellite images as lines of clouds, and we have an example here:

If you look at this infrared satellite image of the Atlantic you can see TS Erin at somewhere around 29W, 15.5N, and a line of clouds extending down to her south and west. Ta-da… a trough! J <End Science Jargon Alert!>

I know this is a trough and not a line of clouds from wind shear because there was a bit of wind shear out there but not enough to form this (and also because I looked at the vorticity (I’ll save that for a proper explanation another day). There doesn’t look like there will be much tomorrow either (however it looks like it will increase in a couple of days). Little wind shear means she has room to intensify of course.  Sea surface water temperatures are around 26-28 deg C, which is warm enough to sustain a storm and also allow her to grow. The two factors she has going against her is that low pressure trough and also some dry air to her northwest:

At the moment I would agree with the NHC forecast on intensity (I know, how unusual! ;-)). She will probably strengthen a bit because of the warm water and low wind shear, but in a couple of days she will be in stronger shear and hopefully in a place where there is more dry air, and that will cause her to deteriorate. I think the forecast track may be a little too northward though (according to this she’ll be around 17.5N in less than 24 hours):

I think she may maintain a more WNW track than this indicates (at least for tomorrow).

Caribbean Blob

The NHC downgraded his chances of becoming a named storm in the next 48 hours to 50%, and quite right too. But if you look at the IR satellite image, it would look like he is trying to make a comeback, isn’t he? Looks can be deceptive! The increased convection since yesterday evening in the IR satellite image above is because of the underlying deep warm waters of the Loop Current in the Gulf and not because his circulation has improved. We just had a smattering of rain from this blob up here in St. Petersburg (and quite nice it was too). He is really not very well formed and his center of circulation looks like it is actually over the Yucatan peninsula. I don’t think he will amount to too much once he gets into the Gulf, but it really depends on what shape he is in once he clears the peninsula. At the moment I would say that he would stay in the southern and western Gulf once he crosses, but because he is so weak it is difficult to assess that.

And that’s where we are today. It’s sleepy time here…I shall dream of a brave new world in which there is a brave new Blake’s 7. J

Night!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Wednesday, August 14, 2013

Atlantic Blobette and Caribbean Blob: August 14, Update A

Looks like there was a sale on the red crayons today! The NHC increased the chances of a Caribbean Blob and Atlantic Blobette to 70-80%. Perfect timing really as I’m back on earth for a little while, after having completed some travel in space and time (future, past, hither, thither, you name it J).

Atlantic Blobette

This blobette zipped Out of Africa all dressed up and fully coiffed, she just needs a touch of make-up and some shoes and she’s ready to boogie. Although she only emerged in the last 48 hours, she has an 80% probability of developing into a Tropical Depression in the next two days. I think we are already looking at a Tropical Depression at the very least, if not TS Erin (assuming she beats her Caribbean brother to the punch)! She is only 100 miles S-SE of the Cape Verde Islands in the eastern Atlantic, so she’s a good week or more away from getting to the western side of the Atlantic. That’s plenty of time for me to bore you all silly with my chatter! ;-)

Her convection is pretty good as you can see in this infrared satellite image:

Gosh, it’s been so long… can you remember what the colours indicate? Can I??  Hang on while I just zip back in time on the internet to look it up in here:  http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/2013/06/tropical-storm-andrea-june-5-update-a.html. Ah yes, thunderstorms and gallons of rain! J

Her circulation is also very good in the lower half of the troposphere (<Science Alert!> troposphere refresher… http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/2013/06/gulf-of-mexico-blobette-june-4-update-a.html).  She should really be weak Tropical Storm Erin already!

She’ll generally head WNW for the next few days, so nothing more on track for today.

Caribbean Blob

You can see this blob rather easily as the Big Blue Blob in the western Caribbean in this IR satellite image:

It looks like he has deteriorated a little in the past few hours. Earlier today he too was seeing red, but he is interacting a little with the land in Central America, which has resulted a decrease in his circulation and convection. But he is also interacting with the very warm and deep waters of the Caribbean (which is why there is still some heavy convection - the orange and yellow areas) so I don’t think he will go away. I would agree with the NHC that he is not yet a Tropical Storm and I’m not sure if he will become one before making landfall in the Yucatan peninsula (although he may already be a TD). Next name is Fernand... it really should be Fernando… how can I make Abba references if they have the name wrong? (oh don’t worry Chiquitita, I’ll find a way ;-)).

The models are showing landfall as a storm in the Gulf from anywhere in the Florida panhandle to Mexico which is, of course, just down the road a bit. I’ll see if I can get a better idea of what’s going on track-wise tomorrow.

Now for something almost completely different… some other Cool Science! (thanks to Doug C. for alerting me to this one). For those who saw the Perseid Meteor shower this weekend and want more Space Nerdiness (and who wouldn’t?), there is a newly discovered nova that you can see just with binoculars! Check out the details here: http://www.skyandtelescope.com/observing/home/Bright-Nova-in-Delphinus-219631281.html. <Science Alert!> A nova is an explosion in a white dwarf star (not to be confused with the dwarves you saw in The Hobbit(!!)). Our Sun is a yellow dwarf star, but this is just one phase in its life, as you can see here:

It was born, it had it's rebellious teenage years and now, in human years, I think it is in its late 30s. J In about 5.5bn years, it will become a red giant, which won’t be able to sustain itself so it will evolve again into a white dwarf! So much easier to follow than the plot of Lord of the Rings, isn’t it? ;-) <End Science Alert!>  

That’s all from me. Best get out there and look at the skies before these pesky storms come along and cloud up the view! J More tomorrow.

Toodle pip!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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