Wednesday, August 31, 2016

Pacific Special Edition 1: Hurricane Madeline: August 31, Update A

I don't normally venture into the Pacific (unless I tweet about it), but I now have a handful of requests for information on the two hurricanes heading for Hawaii. So, from LAX, here's the first of a few short updates today. 

Hurricane Madeline
Madeline is officially currently a mid-size cat 1 storm with winds of 80mph, central pressure 988mb. I don't think she is actually this strong. There is hardly any circulation in the upper troposphere, which means she is really now a strong Tropical Storm - I would estimate her winds around 70 mph actually. 

She isn't very well organized, but does have some convection and it is quite widely spread out, so all the island will feel some of her impacts - rain and cloud with your mai tai?

As soon as she starts to interact with the Big Island, she should start to deteriorate further. She is heading into an area of high wind shear as she gets closer to the islands, and you can see this in the satellite image above as the clouds are streams off to the northeast. This shear will increase, so she should weaken even further. 

Ok... gotta board. Will check in on Hurricane Lester (Pacific), Hurricane Gaston and our two TDs later. 

Ciao for now,
J.   

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm
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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

Hurricane Gaston and Tropical Depressions 8 and 9: August 30, Update A

So much going on, but not enough time to cover it all! I need an XPRIZE in time travel... or even better, I'll settle for the TARDIS XPRIZE... then I won't ever have to pack again either (which is next on my list for this evening). That would definitely save oodles of time! :-) 

Hurricane Gaston
He's been fluctuating in intensity and is now a major cat 3 storm again, with winds of 120mph, central pressure of 956mb (cat 3 range: 111-129mph). He is currently at 32.9N, 50.9W and is heading ENE at 10mph:
I do agree with NHC's cat 3 assessment, but I have to say, there is something weird about this storm... for a cat 3 storm, he has an unusual and remarkable persistent eye (for at least 7 hours)! There is usually a little more variability. Impressive... just like the Disney song said! ;-)

He is moving over temperatures of 27-28 deg C, with only the upper ~25m warmer than 26.5 deg C. However, there was very little wind shear until the last few hours (you can see this in the satellite image as he changes from being more circular to being a little more elongated), so it's not too much of a surprise that he intensified. 

He is still on track to reach the Azores on Friday. Get ready out there!! 

Tropical Depression 8
This blob is now moving away from the eastern US coastline, as predicted. He is currently over the Gulf Stream and because it is a region of warm water that extends deeper into the ocean than the general surrounding area (around 75m of the upper water column is warmer than 26.5 deg C), his convection has increased as expected:
The vorticity maps (circulation) show that he has strong circulation in the lower troposphere, but the mid-tropospheric circulation is not well developed, which means he is still not really a Tropical Storm. So I agree with the NHC keeping him as a TD (for now).

Tropical Depression 9
This is the one I've heard the most about from you today! First, let me remind you about the words of wisdom from the Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy: "A towel is the most important item a hitchhiker can carry"... er... no, I meant "Don't Panic". ;-) (although I don't want to diminish the importance and versatility of towel). 

As I thought, this blobette did move farther west, so her entire track forecast has now been shifted slightly northward. This makes a lot more sense to me.  
 
Her winds are still at 35mph, central pressure is 1004 mb. She is currently at 24.3N, 88.1W and she is heading... nowhere. Just like Gaston a couple of days ago, she has essentially stalled. The nominal movement is W at 1 mph, which doesn't count for beans. 

Here are her latest satellite images: 

She is still a little messy so it is hard to see a clear center of circulation, although for the first time in days, I can see an approximate center in the same place as the official center location - 24.3N, 88.1W.

Here are the vorticity (circulation) maps for three levels in the troposphere - lower, middle, and upper:


First, there is no signal in the upper troposphere, which means that she is nowhere near being a hurricane. 

Second, and more interestingly, the lower level vorticity (circulation) is now connected to an area already over Florida - this pattern is actually more like a front than a storm! The vorticity in the mid-level is not looking very well defined either. Overall, this does not have the circulation patterns of a tropical storm! Meanwhile, to see the signal of a strong tropical storm, you can also look at the circulation that Hurricane Gaston has. Can you see the well defined, red circular pattern in all levels of the troposphere? - that's a hurricane! 

This Gulf of Mexico blobette is over warm waters - temperatures warmer than 29 deg C. But Florida has put up it's force fields (well done Florida!) and wind shear is increasing between this storm and the Florida coast, so if she turns in that direction, she will be facing increasing wind shear:
(increasing wind shear is marked by the yellows and reds on this map). 

The track currently takes her into the Big Bend area by Thursday evening. This is possible, although she may move a little more west than that position as well. Actually, the Florida panhandle and Alabama folks should also have their bottles of wine, ice cream, and other supplies ready. As I mentioned before, a stationary storm's future track is harder to predict! 

Overall, with wind shear building, it doesn't look like she will intensity too much once she starts to get closer to the coast. 

Tomorrow, I am on an interstellar journey ... I'm traveling to another planet where nice friendly aliens abound. :-) I'll try and post an update tomorrow if I can! 

Toodles! 
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm
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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

Tuesday, August 30, 2016

Hurricane Gaston, Tropical Depressions 8 and 9: August 29, Update A

Another day with "So much time and so little to do. Wait a minute. Strike that. Reverse it. Thank you" - Willy Wonka, as most memorably said by Gene Wilder. Thank you for bringing the magical Mr. Wonka to life! 

Hurricane Gaston
Mr. Gaston is now a strong cat 2 storm with winds of 105 mph, central pressure of 968mb (cat 2 range: 96-110mph). He is currently at 31.6N, 54.6W and has finally started to move - he is heading NE at 6mph. His current forecast track takes him back to the northern Azores by the weekend.  

He has definitely weaker than he was yesterday and we can see this clearly in the satellite imagery:

The convection has weakened - there are no more areas of red, which would show areas of very strong thundery convection. He is still over water that is over 29 deg C in temperature, but now only the upper ~25m of the water column is warmer than 26.5 deg C, which means he is churning up cooler water. 

As he moves NW, he is heading slowly into slightly cooler waters (still warmer than 27 deg C) but because the wind shear will remain fairly weak for another couple of days he may weaken slightly, but will remain a hurricane until he runs into higher wind shear. This should happen before he gets near the northern Azores. I'm pretty much in agreement with the NHC on this one. 

Tropical Depression 8
This is the very disorganized blob that is heading to North Carolina. It is pretty difficult to see where the center of circulation is from both the infrared and visible satellite images:



He is officially centered somewhere around 33.8N, 74.1W, heading NW at 5mph. Winds are around 35mph, central pressure is 1012mb (Tropical Depression range: 17-39mph). Although the circulation in the lower troposphere is very strong, there is very little in the mid-troposphere, so he is definitely not a Tropical Storm yet. He still hasn't fully taken advantage of the Gulf Stream with it's delicious warm waters. It also looks like the wind shear will be weakening tomorrow so there is still a chance of intensification, but it seem unlikely that it will be much. 

The NHC forecast track shows that he will clip the outer banks of North Carolina tomorrow evening before heading NE and away from land. I would go with this track as it is in that 1-day zone and I think the NHC track is jolly darn tootin' good (that's proper scientific language for 'quite accurate' and feel free to quote me on that ;-)) in that time frame. 

If you want to have a look at data in that area (and off-shore), you can go to the SECOORA website at http://portal.secoora.org/. They have an interactive google map of buoy and other coastal station data. The winds are in knots so you'll have to convert them to mph (1 kt = 1.15 mph), but it looks like the winds off the cape are currently around 16 mph at the moment.

Tropical Depression 9
This blobette has finally almost broken free of Cuba and is mostly in the southern Gulf of Mexico, officially around 23.9N, 85.5W, heading W at 7mph. Her wind speed is around 35mph (same as TD 8), central pressure is 1003mb. 

She is not yet a Tropical Storm. I would agree with that for now because although she has a little circulation in the mid-troposphere, it is quite weak and it is also not in alignment with the circulation in the lower troposphere. However, her vorticity (circulation) is stronger than TD8 so she is actually slightly stronger than TD 8 and will probably get to Tropical Storm status quicker than TD8. You can see this in the mid-troposphere vorticity map: 
Despite the slightly stronger circulation, she is not really very well developed either and, like yesterday, it is difficult to see in the satellite images where her circulation actually is: 


She is on a more westward track than the NHC originally thought, so the track has been shifted southward, but their expectation is that she will reach 25N by tomorrow evening:

From the pressure fields, it looks like she now has some room to move NW, but I think she may continue a little more W than NW for a bit longer because I think her center may be south of the current official center. Part of the problem in forecasting the track of such a weak and poorly formed system is that her center is not very well defined so the models are basing their forecasts on where they think the center is. Regardless of what the track is, those of you in Florida should be ready with your bottles of wine and ice cream and other necessary hurricane season supplies! ;-) 

Until tomorrow!
Ciao,
J.
 

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

Monday, August 29, 2016

Hurricane Gaston and Tropical Depressions 8 and 9: August 28, Update A

Mother Nature is having a ball out there, isn't she? So much to talk about today that I think I'll just have to jump right in! Lucky you! ;-)

Hurricane Gaston
Hurricane Gaston is now the first major hurricane of the season with winds currently at 120mph, central pressure at 957mb. A major hurricane is a cat 3 or higher intensity storm. With winds of 120mph, Gaston is currently a mid-sized cat 3 storm - the wind speed range for cat 3 storms is 111-129mph. I would agree with this intensity. He has a very well developed eye which has persisted for a number of hours today:

Isn't he a good looking storm? (what can you expect when Disney had already written a song about him to say pretty much the same thing? Their marketing is truly amazing! ;-))

He is currently hovering at around 30.6N, 55.2W, heading absolutely no-where fast - yes, he is stationary - I expect he's probably doing a bit of mid-Atlantic fishing. He hasn't gone very far since yesterday so he didn't move into that area of higher wind shear, which is one of the reasons he continued to grow so nicely today. He also continued to grow because he is still over very warm water, with sea surface temperatures warmer than 29 deg C and the upper 50m of the water column being warmer than 26.5 deg C. 

<Science Alert!> (yay!) Why would a storm stall? You have heard of atmospheric high pressure and low pressure, right? Imagine them as hills and valleys in the atmosphere, except made of air. Now imagine that the storm is a ball on this undulating pressure terrain. If the path ahead of the storm is low pressure, it's like a downhill gradient and the ball will happily keep on rolling forward. If the path in front is high pressure, it is an uphill gradient and the ball (storm) will slow down, or maybe move in a different direction until it finds an easier path downhill (the path of least resistance - because, after all, resistance is futile ;-)). But if the ball gets stuck in a 'dip', it is surrounded by high pressure on all sides, and it becomes difficult for the storm to move in any direction, so it will stop where it is until the pressure fields around it change (which they eventually will do). Of course, because the pressure fields are continually changing, the longer the storm is stuck or slow, the trickier the longer range track forecast becomes. So not only to forecasters need to predict the track of the storm, they also need to predict the entire surrounding pressure field and how it will change before the storm moves again, and that's where computer models really kick in. <End Science Alert!>

This is why I was grumbling about not being able to access the pressure fields over the past few days. But I have a tentative work-around now, so all is right with the world again. :-) Looking at the pressure maps, it doesn't look like he is going to move too far in the next day because he is still surrounded by high pressure. 

We can also see that he is a well formed hurricane by looking at the vorticity maps throughout the troposphere. Here are the vorticity (circulation) maps (thanks to the University of Wisconsin - CIMSS). This is the lowest level of the troposphere (850mb): 

Here's the one from the mid-troposphere (500mb):

And here's the one from the upper troposphere (200mb):

You can see that Gaston (marked by the hurricane symbol) now has a pretty good signal throughout the troposphere - in the upper troposphere it is very well defined - not a big splodge like some of the other blobs and blobettes out there. 

What does tomorrow hold in store for him? Wind shear continues to look quite light, so that will only allow him to grow. He also will remain over warm water, but the longer he stays in the same spot, the cooler he makes the water under him so it is possible that he may make it cool enough that he will begin to weaken. So really, we are waiting to see when he starts to move. The current forecast is that he will move in a northward direction once he starts up again. 

Tropical Depression 8
Formerly known as the Atlantic Blob. This is the pretty weak system that is between Bermuda and the eastern US - around 32.3N, 72.2 W, heading generally NW. 

You can see how weak this blob is from the satellite images:
The center is pretty easy to see because there is so little convection! What there is is heading to North Carolina, along with the blob. As it crosses the Gulf Stream (where sea surface waters are warmer than 30 deg C and the upper 75 m is warmer than 26.5 deg C) I expect it will pick up more convection and there is a chance that it will improve in structure, but it won't be very strong. Be ready for a few spots of rain and, of course, surfs up! 

Another indication that this is a relatively weak blob is in the vorticity (circulation) maps. The 'L' marks the spot. You can see a good strong signal in the lower troposphere, but it's pretty weak by the time it reaches the middle level of the troposphere. It is possible that the mid-tropospheric vorticity will improve as it crosses the Gulf Stream - but it is also heading into an area of higher wind shear. So whether it develops further is really a battle between the opposing influences of the ocean and atmosphere. 

If it does become a tropical storm as it crosses the Gulf Stream the next name is Hermine... although that's a blobette name and TD 9 is also vying for that. The one after that would be Ian. 

Tropical Depression 9
Formerly known as the Atlantic Blobette - this is the one that has been visiting Cuba. She still hasn't quite woken up and is still looking like a bit of a morning mess:
There is a lot of convection - mostly over Cuba. She is such a mess that it is difficult to tell where her approximate center of circulation actually is - so until that has been identified, the models are not going to be very good. If we look at the satellite images (and I usually look at the visible satellite image for this, not the infrared one), it really is difficult to figure out the center:

But if we look at the vorticity maps above, we see that her low-level circulation is right over the western tip of Cuba (actually, it looks like she may be slightly south of Cuba), and her mid-level circulation (although very weak) is a little to the southeast of that - this is because of wind shear, which is continuing to die down. It's the same as yesterday - wind shear continues to weaken, so really the main thing that is keeping her in check is the land mass of Cuba because the surrounding water is quite toasty. 

From the pressure fields, it looks like she may emerge from Cuba in the next day or 1.5 days and, at the moment, she will continue to move generally westward and into the southern Gulf staying south of 25N for the next day at least.

Other Blobs and Blobettes
If you are still awake by the time you read this... you may have noticed a couple of other blobs and blobettes on the vorticity maps. One is just on the coast of Texas - it has circulation in the lower half of the troposphere, but higher up it is connected to an elongated area - more like a front. If we look at the satellite imagery, you'll see that there is very little convection associated with this area:
The NHC have currently given it a 10% chance of development. I would agree - it is already interacting with land, so it seems unlikely that it will go anywhere. 

The other blobette you may have noticed is the area of circulation just north of Puerto Rico. Although there is some convection (clouds really, hardly any rain), this has vorticity in the upper and mid-troposphere, but hardly anything in the lower troposphere. So the structure isn't quite there to consider this a tropical storm - you need low-level vorticity for that. 

I just wanted to mention these two so you can see what the vorticity looks like for storms (and non-storms) of different intensities. It's pretty interesting stuff! (for a geek like me anyway :-)). 

I think that's it for now. Clearly I'll be back tomorrow with beautiful Gaston out there, a fight between the ocean and atmosphere over TD 8, and the possible emergence of TD 9! It's a thrill a minute! ;-) 

Teleporting out for now!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

Sunday, August 28, 2016

Hurricane Gaston and the Atlantic Blobette and Atlantic Blob: August 27, Update B

Before we delve into the 'slightly busy' Atlantic, I know many of you have pooches. So, in honor of National Dog Day in the US yesterday, this...  
:-) (from Crufts 2012 dog show I think, photo credit: Reuters)

Hurricane Gaston
He did become a hurricane and now has winds officially at 85mph, central pressure of 980mb, which makes him a mid-sized cat 1 (cat 1 range: 74-95mph). He is currently at around 29.6N, 54.2W, heading NW at 8mph. If we look at his visible and infrared satellite images, we see that an eye is developing, which would happen around 90mph, so I agree with the NHC on his strength:


The circulation is very strong in the lower half of the troposphere, and there is a small signal in the upper troposphere, although it is attached to a trough - an elongated area of vorticity. A signal that high in the troposphere does suggest a hurricane, and given that it is not strong yet, this is another clue that this is a cat 1 storm at the moment. As he moves into that area of elongated upper tropospheric vorticity, there is a good chance he will get stronger.  

Another reason he may continue to strengthen a little is because wind shear is relatively weak at the moment and he is over very warm sea surface temperatures - over 29 deg C - with the upper 50-75m warmer than 26.5 deg C. However, it looks like the wind shear may get a bit stronger in a day or so, which may at least slow his growth. 

It looks like Gaston is on track to move to the North and then the Northeast by Monday. 

Atlantic Blobette
The Atlantic Blobette is still struggling as far as her convection goes, because she is still interacting with Cuba:

However, her circulation in the lower troposphere has improved since yesterday. She is in relatively weak wind shear and it looks like it will remain weak in front of her. The water temperatures ahead of her are very warm, with surface temperatures greater than 30 deg C and the upper 100m in the Straits of Florida warmer than 26.5 deg C. The thing that is really inhibiting her growth at the moment is Cuba. Although she is weak and messy, I think her circulation is centered somewhere near the northern coast of Cuba. If she retains her circulation once she moves away from Cuba, and if all other things remain the same, it looks like she will intensify into a Tropical Storm. Looks a bit rainy out there! 

Regarding the track, I have been reunited with my pressure fields (although the NOAA page links still don't work!). It looks like she'll continue in a WNW-NW direction for now, along the northern edge of Cuba. 

Atlantic Blob
And then there's the Blob near Bermuda. The good news here is that although there is circulation in the lower levels of the troposphere, there isn't much in the middle or higher troposphere. The convection is also very weak:
The only reason to keep an eye on this for a little while longer is because it does have that low-level circulation (vorticity). We'll see how he is doing tomorrow. 

I think that's it for now. 
Ciao,
J. 

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

Saturday, August 27, 2016

Tropical Storm Gaston and the Atlantic Blobette, Altantic Blob, and Gulf of Mexico Blobette: August 27, Update A

Today's update will be very short due to technical difficulties: I closed my eyes for a 5 minute nap so I would be awake and witty for this and then promptly woke up 3 hours later, after midnight and can't stay awake now. I'm sure you have all experienced similar technical difficulties. :-)

So quickly, an update on all of the crayon marks here:

There is some convective activity across all these areas:

However, not all splodges (yes, technical term - describes a collective of areas of convection) are created equal, as you can see from the vorticity (or circulation) map. This is the map from the middle of the troposphere:
From the three maps above, we can:

1. See the the Gulf of Mexico Blobette is not really much of anything - no circulation, and not much convection. Not sure why that yellow crayon mark is on the NHC map in the first place. Won't be mentioning this one unless the circulation picks up. 

2. The original Atlantic Blobette, that was between Hispaniola and Cuba yesterday, still lurks near the Hispaniola region. She must really like the local drinks! She is struggling though because the convection has decreased. Although there is still some decent circulation in the middle level of the troposphere (and below that too - not shown), so I will still keep an eye on her. 

3. The new Atlantic Blob, near Bermuda, has some convection (are you guys getting any rain yet), but the vorticity/circulation is not very well defined - there are two connected areas in the middle troposphere, although it is looking better in the lower troposphere. This one may develop close/over Bermuda. I will keep an eye on this one too. 

4. Tropical Storm Gaston, everyone's favourite guy! ;-) He still has winds of 65mph, central pressure of 997mb, which makes him a strong Tropical Storm (TS raneg: 39-73mph). His center is currently at 27N, 50.8W and he is heading NW at 15mph. He is still experiencing a lot of wind shear and his center of circulation is at the southern edge of that area of convection that you see in the Atlantic imagery above. Here's the visible satellite image I grabbed earlier today: 
Although his vorticity (circulation) remains strong in the middle of the troposphere (and below), the upper level has been diminishing, which now indicates that he won't be a hurricane as he emerges from the wind shear. More on him tomorrow.  

Perfect timing... low battery warning that my computer will sleep soon. Just like me. :-) Definitely a sign! 

Night until the 'morrow!
J. 

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

Friday, August 26, 2016

Tropical Storm Gaston and the Atlantic Blobette: August 25, Update A

You guys sure like your Disney movies! Yes indeed, the Gaston song lyrics were from Beauty and the Beast (Robert H. was first past the post on that one :-)). Another sample from the song:

"No one's been like Gaston
A king pin like Gaston
No one's got a swell cleft in his chin like Gaston
As a specimen, yes, I'm intimidating
My- what a guy, that Gaston"

Thank you to Jim V. O., Marc B., and Scott D. who sent me the alternate underground lyrics...

"Nooooo ooooooone STORMS like Gaston
Makes cloud forms like Gaston
Disrupts meteorological norms like Gaston"
(originally from the twitter stream of @bastardkeith)

and the additional alternate underground lyrics...

"I'm especially good at EVACUATIONS!"  (Alex P.)

and the additional alternate alternate underground lyrics...

"I'm especially good at precipitating!" (Anthony F.)

Chuckle-o-rama! Anyway, back to the er serious side of tropical storms...  

Tropical Storm Gaston
Fortunately that wind shear we knew he was heading into did it's job and Gaston is now back to strong Tropical Storm status with winds of 65mph, central pressure of 997mb. He is at 22.8N, 46.4W, heading NW at 17mph. 

Here is the infra-red satellite image for the entire tropical Atlantic:

Gaston is the swirling mass in the center (the right-most system in this imagery). You can clearly see the effect of wind shear because the convection is mostly to the east. If we look at the map of wind shear tendency, we can see that he has moved into that area of higher wind shear depicted by the red/orange:
 
But it is not very broad, so he will be heading into weaker shear in the next day or so. 

The vorticity (circulation) is still VERY strong in the lower half of the troposphere, and there is some in the upper levels of the troposphere, however because of the wind shear the upper part is not in alignment with the lower part. This is why he is not quite a hurricane. Once that wind shear vanishes, and the two parts align, he'll be back to hurricane strength. This may happen as soon as Friday evening, although the NHC expect it to happen by Saturday morning. Close enough! Yes, we are all in agreement on this one. :-)

Although he is heading towards Bermuda at the moment, the models are showing that he will curve away. This is quite possible as there is a high pressure area in the mid-Atlantic that he is moving around. I still can't locate the maps I used to rely on though. Grrr... continued. 

Atlantic Blobette
As I said yesterday...

"Don't panic until it's time to panic; then, by all means panic. Early panic attempts will be met by comments, insults, and pictures of tinfoil hats. Late panic attempts will fall on deaf ears. You have about 14 minutes." (thanks Keith L. for that). 

The good news about this blobette is that the hilly land of Hispaniola took a bit of steam out of her before she could emerge into the area of lower wind shear. Her convection is pretty shabby - you can barely tell she's a storm in the Atlantic-wide satellite imagery, can you? She's the rainy area that just 'left' Hispaniola and is kinda-sorta heading towards Cuba.

More than that though, her vorticity (circulation) has also weakened a bit. This was the map of the lower troposphere circulation yesterday...
You can see that yesterday the Atlantic Blobette (between Puerto Rico and Hispaniola) was on the redder end of yellow. This is the same map today, 24 hours later...

She still has a circulation signal in the lower troposphere, but it is weaker. She is moving W at around 15-20 mph. As she is going to continue to interact with Cuba for a little while, it is unlikely that she will get stronger. It may actually be the end of this system, but it's worth keeping an eye on her for at least another day or two. 

That's it for today methinks. Time to watch this again. Tee hee. 

Until tomorrow my friends!
J. 

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.