[Jyo_hurricane] The Final 2007 entry - I hope!

Hello my friends, It's that time of the year... Welcome to the END of the Hurricane Season! (and welcome to all those who signed up in November!! - I bet you are wondering why now? :))

To summarize the 2007 season:  We had a total of 14 named storms and 6 hurricanes, because they have just upgraded Karen (anyone remember her?) in the post-season analysis to a hurricane (for less than 12 hours whilst she was over the Atlantic). That makes this an average year as far as the number of hurricanes, and slightly above average in terms of the total named storms, but still a way below average year if you take into consideration the combined duration and intensity of all the storms.

Once again, a certain well known company (to protect the innocent, let's call it Company A) lived up to it's nick-name (inaccuwea..cough cough). To recap: Before the 2006 season, their report said: "In terms of the number of storms, the 2006 hurricane season will again be more active than normal, but less active than last summer's historic storm season." 2006 had below normal activity. Before the 2007 season, their report said: "the Gulf and Florida face a renewed threat, and we will see more powerful storms across the board. We will not get anywhere near the amount of storms that we did in 2005, but it is the intensity of the storms we do get that will be of major concern.” With the exception of two cat 5s that remained in the Caribbean, all the other storms were far weaker than usual. In all fairness to Company A, they weren't the only ones making such grand claims. Unfortunately, this highlights the importance we put on early season forecasts, when we don't really understand the physical system at play. It is what the public wants to know, but it also causes life-threatening problems when those claims do not materialize because the public begins to ignore them, and then when something awful is going to happen they ignore that as well (as we saw with Katrina)  the-boy-who-cried-wolf-syndrome. Forecasting for the entire season is not a very scientific thing - so please treat any forecasts you hear for the entire season with a pinch of salt (unless it's my forecast of course ;) ), and don't get complacent - it's always good to be prepared!

On to other "news". In case you missed it, Herbert Saffir, the co-creator of the Saffir-Simpson that we fondly use to categorize hurricanes, passed away last week (Nov. 21). He was 90 years of age. The scale is based on how much damage is caused at certain wind speeds, which is why each category is not evenly distributed in terms of the wind speed brackets.

Finally, I would like to do my annual count of how many people are exposed to my emails/blog entries - can you send me a note if you forward these missives to anyone (spouse, sibling, cat, dog, the fish in the neighbour's pond), how many you forward to, and what state (or country) they live in? That would be greatly appreciated!

Thanks to all who have helped in bringing this to you - the computing wizards at CMS/USF, and to C. in Texas for maintaining the blog, and to my friends, family and colleagues for doing their best to keep me sane and retain a sense of humour ;)

Have a wonderful holiday season, New Year, etc etc...
That's all for now folks :)

J.
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Disclaimer... blah blah blah.... (see the website blog archives if you want to read it).
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[Jyo_hurricane] Extratropical Storm Noel: November 4, Update A

We can say bye bye to Noel until Christmas-time now. He pretty much
disintegrated as he approached Nova Scotia. This is my last entry on Noel.

Also, the blob that was off Nicaragua yesterday is now bringing squally
weather to Nicaragua and Honduras - it remained a blob. So no more on
that either.

Once again, that's all until the end of the season or until something
else pops up - whatever is first.

Don't forget, the clocks turned back an hour last night... so I hope you
all caught that extra hour of sleep :)

Ciao,
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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[Jyo_hurricane] Extratropical Storm Noel: November 3, Update A

I didn't send anything out yesterday because there was no change from
the forecast track or intensity from the day before. He is now an
extra-tropical storm, and handsome looking one at that - complete with
an eye. Oddly, the NHC decided to stop issuing advisories on this system
yesterday afternoon, even though the outer edges of this system are
being felt along the eastern sea-board. I don't recall them ever
stopping this early, even for an extratropical storm... maybe I've
entered the Twilight Zone (appropriately enough given the proximity to
Halloween - insert spooky music)... anyway, I will continue...

He is currently centered at about 36N, 71W, more or less due west of
Maryland, and is heading in a general north-eastward direction. There is
a chance that the center will clip the outer edges of Nova Scotia. He is
currently over the Gulf Stream and in a relatively weak wind shear
environment. The circulation is really strong at all but the upper
levels of the atmosphere.

Most of the moisture associated with this system is now to the north and
west of the eye, so for those of you in New York, Boston and north, the
clouds and possible rain you are experiencing today are part of the
outer bands of Noel. It doesn't look too bad from the satellite images
though. Just leave the sun glasses at home :)

What the NHC is doing though, to keep themselves busy, is keeping an eye
on a low pressure system off the coast of Nicaragua in the Caribbean. It
has some convection and a little bit of low-level circulation but that's
about it. It's just a "blob" (technical term for those who have recently
joined this list :) ) at the moment.

That's all for today. I think. Have fun whatever you are doing :)
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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[Jyo_hurricane] Hurricane Noel: November 1, Update B

Good evening my friends,

Yup, you know who became a hurricane earlier this evening and is a
small-to-mid sized cat 1 at the moment with winds of 80 mph (cat 1: 74-95
mph). He has cleared the Bahamas, is zooming north-northeastward at 20
mph, and is currently at 27.3N, 76.1W.

The center of circulation is now firmly embedded within the area of
convection, but you can still see that there is some shear because the
clouds are larger in the north-east quadrant. He is also 'merging' with a
front that is moving eastward off the US eastern states into the Atlantic,
because, really, he doesn't have enough clouds of his own. :)

I agree with the NHC - he will become a strong extratropical storm
(hurricane) tomorrow. At the moment his forecast path takes him to the
Nova Scotia area on Saturday. I think there's a strong possibility that he
will curve out into the Atlantic before getting to that point - unless he
speeds up.

Toodle-pip for now,
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Jyo_Hurricane@marine.usf.edu
http://seas.marine.usf.edu/mailman/listinfo/jyo_hurricane

[Jyo_hurricane] TS Noel: November 1, Update A

Goodness me... I don't know what the Bahamas did to deserve this storm,
but they've been under heavy rainfall and thunderstorms for the past
three days. However, the end is in sight (although the sun may not yet
be in sight for them). Noel has picked up speed (14mph forward motion)
and has changed direction from northward to
north-northeastward/north-eastward, as expected, and is moving away from
Cuba and Florida. His center is currently in the Bahamas (north of
Nassau). All Tropical Storm watches and warnings have been lifted for
Florida.

There is still a lot of convection with this system, and the winds are
now at 65mph. He might intensify a bit more because he's still over warm
waters (>28 deg C), but there is some moderate wind shear. After he's
crossed the island chain the temperatures are a little cooler (~27 deg
C), but still warm enough to sustain the storm. Although the center of
circulation is no longer as removed from the convective activity as it
was yesterday it is still on the south-western side of that activity -
so most of that convection is still to the north and east.

Unfortunately, the death toll from Hispaniola is not good - at least 90
people, with dozens still missing. They may be retiring the name "Noel"
after this year. We'll see what shape the Bahamas are in once they
emerge from behind the clouds. Hopefully not as bad.

More later...
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

_______________________________________________
Jyo_Hurricane mailing list
Jyo_Hurricane@marine.usf.edu
http://seas.marine.usf.edu/mailman/listinfo/jyo_hurricane