Jyotika's Tropical Storms Blog: November 2008

Sunday, November 30, 2008

November 30: Final Day of the 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Hello my friends... Yes, it's the official end of the 2008 Atlantic
Hurricane Season. Hurray hurray. And Phew. What a season, hey?

To sum up the 2008 season: Officially we had 16 named storms, of which 8
were hurricanes, 5 major (cat 3 or higher). An above-average year (average
is 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 major) and the folks who play the
'Forecast-Exactly-How-Many-Storms-We'll-Get' roulette game were close to
the mark for a change. I suppose if you stick to the same lottery numbers
every time, eventually you'll be lucky.

I think some of you may have noticed in my fabulous (!), brilliant (?!?),
and witty (??!!) entries this year that I didn't *always* agree with the
official assessment. In my opinion there were about 4 storms that
shouldn't have been named, and one hurricane that could have remained a
Tropical Storm. But despite that, we did have some rather large hurricanes
(remember Big Beautiful Bertha?) - most of which had remarkable aim and
managed to hit Cuba or some other island en route to wherever it ended up.
It was most definitely an active year. I believe the crystal balls for
next year are already being polished. From NOAA the 2009 forecast is 14-18
named storms and 10 hurricanes. I forecast that 12 months from today we'll
know if the NOAA forecast was accurate. :)

As I wrap up this year, I'd like to thank those who helped me... my
fabulous technical support - the computing guys at CMS/USF for the
listserve, and C.H. in Texas for maintaining the blog. I should also thank
the St. Pete Times - after that article, the readership increased a tad...
from an estimated 600-700 to over 2000. Eeek!! I need to thank our
intrepid reporters in the field - it seemed like there was someone who
read this in the path of almost every storm this year - from Bermuda to
the Caribbean to Texas to Canada! It was pretty darn tootin' cool getting
real picture "real-time" reports from you all. I also thank all of you for
continuing to read this drivel ;) ... the hilarious comments I got back
made the whole thing so much more entertaining (for me and your
fellow-readers). Finally, my thanks to my friends, family and colleagues
for their sometimes futile efforts in keeping me sane and helping me
retain a sense of humour... good luck with that ;) And to my producers,
director, and fellow-actors... oh, sorry, wrong thank-you speech.

Have a wonderful 'off-season' (hurricane), best of luck for those whose
'cyclone season' is just beginning! (I got your notes - thank you), happy
holidays, wishing you all a great New Year, keep laughing, keep enjoying
the obscure words etc etc...

It's time for me to hibernate now... that's all for now folks.

TOODLE PIP, ;)
J.

------------------------------
Disclaimer... blah blah blah.... (see the website blog archives if you
want to read it).
------------------------------

Sunday, November 09, 2008

Tropical Depression Paloma: November 9 Update A

She rapidly deteriorated after landfall in Cuba because of wind shear plus
land interaction. By this morning there was no convection over Cuba, just
some tropical storm force winds. She pretty much stalled this afternoon
(and remains 'stuck'), fortunately whilst still over land and is now back
to being a depression (still over Cuba) at around 21.2 N, 78W. Winds are
near/less than 35 mph, central pressure 1004mb. By the time she emerges,
she won't amount to anything for the Bahamas.

I haven't heard of any injuries in Cuba, but they had coastal flooding,
power and communication loss of course. This was the fifth hurricane to
hit Cuba this year (I think). Having been in Florida in 2004, I can just
about imagine how fed-up and exhausted they must be!

Grand Cayman also got off very lightly apparently. The worst hit was
Cayman Brac with island-wide damage to buildings - some totally gone.

As she's a depression now I think this is my last entry on Paloma - unless
she picks up again, which doesn't look likely.

That's all for now folks.
Be good!
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical
storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are
making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management
and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National
Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run
away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

Saturday, November 08, 2008

Hurricane Paloma: November 8 Update B

Paloma made landfall in southern Cuba a short while ago (between 6-6.20pm
EST) as a strong cat 3 storm with estimated winds of 125 mph (cat 3:
111-130 mph). She did begin to deteriorate as she appraoched Cuba and the
eye collapsed well before landfall - a combination of wind shear and land
interaction. That wind value may be a bit of an overestimate - seems
strong for a storm with no eye at all, but she's still a strong storm. She
also picked up speed earlier, and is now moving at about 10mph in a NE
direction - so she will have crossed Cuba by tomorrow afternoon.

Cuba and the wind shear will take its toll, and she should be a TS or weak
cat 1 when she emerges tomorrow. Wind shear is now over 35-46 mph, and
will continue to increase tomorrow. Water temperatures north of Cuba (in
the Bahamas region) are 26-28 deg C, but only the upper 50m (at the most)
have waters warmer than 26 deg C, so there is less for the storm to draw
upon.

That's it for today folks.
Ciao,
J.

Hurricane Paloma: November 8 Update A

!?$$?!?*#!!?@# I expect a few people out there thinking or saying the same
thing about this system - maybe in a different language though. This storm
is *not* living up to its name...Paloma means Dove in spanish (thanks EE).
Mother Nature didn't get any of the memo's apparently.

She's now a mid-sized cat 4 (cat 4 range: 131-155mph) with 140 mph winds
(pressure: 943 mb), and although vertical wind shear is between 23-46 mph,
she's too strong for it alone to have a significant impact. She just
passed Cayman Brac - it was pretty much a direct hit with the eyewall
passing over the island. She's heading towards Cuba, officially moving NE
at 8mph. It looks to me like she's going east of the current center of
cone forecast so she'll make landfall in the southern part of the island
as a Major Hurricane overnight tonight. Her lovely clear eye is at about
20N, 79W.

The combined wind shear and interaction with Cuba will bring her down in
intensity, but the track beyond Cuba is still all over the place... most
models have her making a U-turn (in a no-U-turn zone may I add), and bring
her back to make landfall in Cuba again (possibly getting as far as the
Bahamas). The "cone of uncertainty" beyond Cuba is actually a "circle of
uncertainty". Is there still a part of Cuba that hasn't been hit this
year? I don't have any pressure map information at all at this point so I
can't even begin to comment on the track after Cuba. Maybe that's also the
problem with the models. There's just no data out there for some reason.

The only good thing I can say about this system is that there were at
least two computer models that predicted this sort of intensity...although
they then recomputed and backed off so I don't know if it was predicted
for the correct reasons, but still, it's worth keeping a closer eye on
those for future storms. I, of course, was off target with this one and am
considering a change in career to cheese maker (hmmm... cheese).

More later.
J.

Friday, November 07, 2008

Hurricane Paloma: November 7 Update B

Bother bother bother. She's still intensifying. Bother - those poor
little Cayman Islands! They're barely above sea level as it is. This
won't be pretty.

Now a cat 2, she's looking almost beautiful - a nice eye, currently
centered at about 18.6N, 81.1W. She's a bit ragged looking to the north
where there's some wind shear. Winds are 105 mph (central pressure:
967mb), making her a pretty decent strength cat 2 (cat 2 range:
96-110mph), and the convection has increased again (as suspected, it was
a cycle we saw earlier). The worst of the convection (strong
thunderstorms etc) is already over Grand Cayman, even though she's still
south of the island. She's moving NNE and if she keeps on that heading,
her eye will pass just east of Grand Cayman sometime in the middle of
the night and maybe just west of the remaining Cayman Islands tomorrow
morning.

She has slowed down further to 6mph though. Slowing down is not good. It
gives her time to grow to a cat 3, which, if it's going to happen, will
occur soon (within next 12 hours) - before she reaches Cuba. The wind
shear increases even more tomorrow (or rather she'll move into a higher
wind shear environment to her north), so The Plan is that she'll begin
to weaken before she gets as far north as Cuba (landfall on Sunday) -
(are you listening to The Plan Mother Nature??).

The computer model tracks are now all over the place (compared to
yesterday and today). They take her into Cuba (which we all agree on),
and then get a bit confused north of Cuba - some taking her
west/southwest - back towards er... Cuba ... hmm. That's 4 or 5 days
away yet though. One reason for this confusion is the uncertainty about
whether she will survive the increased wind shear tomorrow and
interaction with Cuba over the weekend and still emerge as a storm - I
don't think she will be much after her first bout with Cuba. The other
problem with the forecasting is that she's slowing down. That was not
expected. I don't have good resolution pressure maps for the Caribbean,
but slowing down indicates that she's bumping up against that high
pressure - she's trying to 'move uphill'. Slowing down, bad. High
resolution pressure maps would have been very nice in this case.

Well that's it for today. I'll send out another update tomorrow probably.

It's been a busy week... time for a glass of wine now methinks.
Adieu,
J.

Hurricane Paloma: November 7 Update A

As expected, she's been steadily intensifying and was officially named a
hurricane last night. With nothing to stop her from intensifying, that's
not a big surprise.

She's heading N at 7mph, towards Grand Cayman. They are forecasting a NE
turn later today/tonight so she'll head to Little Cayman and Cayman
Brac. I think there's still a chance she'll stay northwards longer than
that track suggests, making landfall in Cuba west of the current
location - but all still within that cone of uncertainty. But I'm basing
my thinking on very sparse pressure data so I could be in la-la land
(how would you know the difference anyway, huh? ;) )

Winds are now estimated to be about 85 mph, central pressure 979 mb,
making her a mid-sized cat 1 (cat 1: 74-95mph). It looks like a clear
eye is struggling to form and the center of circulation is easy to spot.
The satellite data for the winds is not yet accessible (to me), so I'll
go along with the NHC's official wind speed. I did have a look at the
wind speed recorded on two buoys in that part of the Caribbean. Neither
are very close to the center but the highest gusts currently being
recorded are 27 mph. Also, convection has decreased since earlier this
morning, which could just be a diurnal variation or it could be that
she's not intensifying any further - too soon to tell (most likely a
diurnal variation). The models that were predicting a Major Hurricane
(cat 3 or higher) at landfall on Cuba have now backed off a bit and are
saying she'll be a cat 2.

Maybe she will get to become a cat 2, we'll see... but conditions are
already changing: the surface water temperatures underneath are a little
cooler - 27-28 deg C mostly, with small patches of 29 deg C and 25-26
deg C. She's also crossed the deepest warm water (upper 125m 26 deg C or
higher) - although it's still pretty deep with the upper 80-100m greater
than 26 deg C. Also, wind shear is beginning to pick up slowly. It now
ranges from 11mph in the south to 35 mph in the northern part of the
storm, and it will continue to increase as she moves northwards today
and tomorrow.

More later gators (and noles and all other sports people... ;) )
J.

Thursday, November 06, 2008

Tropical Storm Paloma: November 6 Update B

Quick update:

She's been slowly intensifying all day, and now has winds of just below
65 mph (TS: 39-73mph) and central pressure of 994 mb, making her a
mid-strong TS. There's still nothing that will inhibit her
intensification, so she'll be a hurricane by tomorrow. No clear eye yet,
but it's easy to see the center of circulation - which now extends up to
the middle of the troposphere (lowest part of our atmosphere). Signs of
circulation are now also beginning to emerge in the upper levels as well
- which is an indication that this could be a strong storm.

The center was shifted eastward after a hurricane hunter plane went into
the system, and it is now at 16.3N, 81.1W, She'd moving more-or-less
northward at 8mph, and because she's picked up speed it looks like
she'll pass v. close to/over the Caymans tomorrow evening as a
hurricane, with landfall in Cuba now moved up to the middle of the day
on Sunday. Wind shear is not expected to increase until some time over
the weekend, giving her plenty of time to increase in intensity.

By the way, it's still Hurricane Season (for those who conveniently
forgot, or wishfully thought it ended at the beginning of November
;))... this storm is still within the 97% of all tropical storm activity
time frame.

More tomorrow (unless something dramatic happens tonight).
Byeeeeee,
J.

TS Paloma: November 6 Update A

I know, it's difficult to imagine there's a Tropical Storm out there,
when here in Tropical Florida it is a chilly ~75 deg F... brrr... get
those woolly mittens out! ;)

TS Paloma was officially named in the middle of the night. She's now
moving NNW at 7mph, which means she's easily going to remain over water
and is currently centered at about 15.3N, 82.2W. Officially, winds are
40mph (TS: 39- 73 mph), but I expect that to increase during the day
today to at least 45-50mph - still a weak system. Central pressure is
1000mb. Another plane is scheduled to go into the system this
afternoon. Despite the weak winds, there are patches of strong
convection - mostly over water (including the Caymans and Jamaica).

Surface water temperatures are 28-30 deg C and soon she'll be moving
over waters that are over 26 deg C in the upper 100m of the water
column... this will keep her well fed and happy. From an atmospheric
point of view, vertical wind shear is now quite low and looks like it
will remain low for the next day or two. So really, there isn't much to
inhibit her intensification in the next 48 hours and I agree with the
NHC forecast. There's a very good chance she'll become a borderline
TS/weak hurricane as she approaches the Cayman Islands.

Interestingly the most reliable models diverge completely in terms of
intensification after ~two day: some say she will undergo rapid
intensification and continue on towards Cuba as an-almost major/major
(cat 3 or higher) storm, and others think that the wind shear will
increase which will decimate the system in the Caribbean. So the choices
for Cuba are - BIG storm or NO storm... (anyone looking for ideas for a
reality tv/game show?). You can see why it's tricky basing forecasts on
models sometimes. We'll know by Sat. which group is correct. I fall
somewhere in between the two, which is the tactic I think the NHS is
taking as well (but for different reasons).

The forecast track takes the center of the cone just left of the
Caymans, and then curves NE towards the center of Cuba and across to the
southern Bahamas. This might be a little too far right... currently it
looks like there's a chance it will pass north of the center of Cuba and
towards the northern Bahamas (if she survives). But again, that's 3-4
days away so things could change. (Folks in southern Florida should also
just keep a small eye on this system).

<Soapbox alert> Intensity forecasting is a very tricky thing (as it's
based on the track of a storm)... but you may be interested to know I
heard a talk last week that showed some improvement in a hurricane
intensity model - something that would help the NHC at least. I asked
why it wasn't being used as an 'experimental tool' by the NHC. I was
surprised to find out that it is very difficult for anyone outside of
NOAA (NHC is part of NOAA) to get something like that to people in NOAA
(and equally frustrating for people in NOAA who would very much like to
work with people outside NOAA). Now, you would think that for something
like hurricane forecasting where lives are at stake and beaucoup $ are
involved, they would at least make it easy to work together for a common
goal, right? My (very limited) understanding is that it's some sort of
an institutional block, not a person-to-person block. Since then I've
heard the same thing from a number of other people. But, the bottom line
that I wanted to let you know is that there are improvements being made
in hurricane models... they just may take years to emerge from the
dungeons. I hope you can wait. <end Soapbox alert>.

I'll send out another update later.

Toodle pip,
J.

Wednesday, November 05, 2008

TD 17: November 5 Update B

No surprises here ... data from the plane showed that the blobette is, indeed, a Tropical Depression with low-level circulation and convection.

It's quite disorganized so I can't see a clear center and I'll go with the official one from the NHC which has it currently at about 14N, 81.8W. It is heading NW at 5mph and is still SE of the Nicaragua/Honduras border. The forecast calls for it to become a TS tonight/tomorrow. Currently winds are at 30mph (central pressure 1004mb), and as TS winds are from 39-73mph, that's not too much of a stretch. Satellite winds are already showing wind speeds of 40-45mph.

As it's on that southwestern side of a high pressure system (remember, in the Northern Hemisphere things move clockwise around a high), it will soon curve to the North and then eventually to the NE. The question really is where will that northward turn occur... will it get closer to land, which will help to keep it's intensity down, or will it remain over warm waters and head towards Cuba. The forecast track takes it very close to that corner before curving out tomorrow. I don't have high enough resolution pressure fields to be able to make that call, so we'll have to see what happens tomorrow. And of course, what happens beyond Cuba ... well, talking rabbits would have as good an answer as anyone else to that at the moment. ;)

Given the uncertainty in the track, there is large uncertainty in the intensity. Some of the models forecast it to become a Major Hurricane (cat 3 or higher) before landfall in Cuba in about 5 days (because apparently Cuba hasn't had enough of those this year). It's way too soon for me to tell - both the track and intensity - although as I've said before the GFDL model has been doing rather well on the track this year.

I will say it has some pretty strong convection at the moment - mostly over water.

I'll be watching it tomorrow of course - the first thing to look for is how close it gets to that Nicaragua/Honduras border/land area before turning north. Then we'll have a clearer idea. Hopefully.

So... I got *quite* a few responses to my earlier message, like: "You is determinated to edumacate us wit bigest words!!!!!" ;) (sorry I not had time to write back to you all)... You like 'caudicty' huh? I do too so I thought I'd try and save it from the brink of extinction... http://www.waywordradio.org/darwinism-and-the-dictionary-minicast/ (thanks to BM for sending it to me).

Until tomorrow amigos...

Toodles,
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/ ------------------------------- DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know. -------------------------------------------

The Blobette: November 5 Update A

At this time, in the caducity of the hurricane season, there is another
blobette out there. It's in the Caribbean, off the coast of
Nicaragua/Honduras. There is some low-level rotation, but not much in
the middle or upper troposphere. There is also some convection. Surface
water temperatures there are currently ~28 deg C, so still warm enough
for some development. But it's just a blob at the moment, not even
officially a Tropical Depression (although I think it should be), so
we'll all just keep one eye on it. It's on the south-western edge of a
high pressure system, so there's a chance it will move over land in
central America, but there's also a chance that it will curve over water
and towards Cuba, allowing it to intensify some more. The next name on
the list (in case we need it) is Paloma. They'll send in a plane to
investigate later today if needed.

And yes, of course I've been biding my time for an opportunity to use
'caducity'. It's so obliging of Mother Nature to have a Blobette in
November. :)

More, but only if this develops.
Ciao,
J.

Sunday, November 30, 2008

November 30: Final Day of the 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Sunday, November 09, 2008

Tropical Depression Paloma: November 9 Update A

Saturday, November 08, 2008

Hurricane Paloma: November 8 Update B

Hurricane Paloma: November 8 Update A

Friday, November 07, 2008

Hurricane Paloma: November 7 Update B

Hurricane Paloma: November 7 Update A

Thursday, November 06, 2008

Tropical Storm Paloma: November 6 Update B

TS Paloma: November 6 Update A

Wednesday, November 05, 2008

TD 17: November 5 Update B

The Blobette: November 5 Update A

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Sunday, November 30, 2008

Sunday, November 09, 2008

Saturday, November 08, 2008

Friday, November 07, 2008

Thursday, November 06, 2008

Wednesday, November 05, 2008

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