Extratropical Cyclone Lorenzo: October 2, Update A

A quick update for today as I sip my evening grape juice... Lorenzo has fully transitioned from a tropical cyclone to an extratropical cyclone. We caught him beginning this transition yesterday. He's still on track to visit Ireland and England on his tour... 

If you are in Ireland, or are interested in his progress in Ireland, I'd look at the Met Eireann website (met.ie) for more info. If you go to this site, click on winds on the right side, and hit the 'play' button in the image, you can watch the forecasted winds increase and then decrease as he crosses Ireland (or you can view the rain or pressure). Here's a few screen captures showing Lorenzo (The Low) as he approaches Ireland overnight on Friday:

And here he is leaving, after moving from the northwest to the southeast, a few hours later: 

From the pressure fields the forecast shows that he won't be quite so as bad as he gets to Wales and crosses the southwest UK later in the day on Friday (a blustery sort of day): 

If you are interested in the UK side of things, the best source of data is my old work place (I say with pride) - the UK Met Office. In this case, go to metoffice.gov.uk and you can type in the location for the forecast. 

As this is now extratropical and we know where he's going, this is my last update on Lorenzo. But of course, if you are in Ireland and the UK - be careful, be safe! 

Must run... things to do, people to see, wine to drink, ice cream to eat, world to save... the usual stuff.

Toodle pip,

J. 

Twitter: jyovianstorm

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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast. This is not an official forecast.
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Hurricane Lorenzo: October 1, Update A

Mr. Lorenzo and his tropical storm conditions are now pretty much at the Azores, which are getting more of the windy weather than the rainy weather...

He is at 39.1N, 32.7W, heading NE at a really really rapid 40mph. Wind speeds are estimated to be 100mph, central pressure is 960mb. This makes him officially a weak cat 2 storm (cat 2 range: 95-110mph). 

However, there isn't a good eye (as you can see in the satellite imagery above) and his convection is very weak for a cat 2, so you wouldn't be mistaken in thinking he's not really a classic cat 2 storm - because he's not. His wind speed is actually weaker, but because he is moving forward at that ridiculously fast speed, the effective winds being felt are a lot stronger! This is why they have maintained his cat 2 status. 

There are a couple of unusual things about this Lorenzo. First, his forward speed. This is something we usually see with a storm that has been caught up in a low pressure front. The circulation in the lower levels of the troposphere are beginning to shift towards the signal we see with a front, but his circulation in the upper troposphere still has the circulation pattern of a hurricane, so I would say he is still very much a hurricane (for today at least).

Second, he is over cold water - colder than 26 deg C at the surface. This is why his convection is not very strong. But it also means he isn't going to be getting much energy from underlying warm water - again, something we see with a extratropical storm, not a tropical storm. So overall, I'd say he is transitioning from one type of storm to the other.  

The NHC maintain his hurricane status until Thursday - because of his wind speeds as he races across the north Atlantic.

As for his track... well...hmm...

Lorenzo says, "I must tell thee all. She hath directed..." (Merchant of Venice). Oh how true. Yesterday I did mention he was going to the Ireland/UK area to weigh in on Brexit, and where better than to the seat of it all - London...? It is, after all, October 2019... 

What does this mean for Ireland and the UK? 

Well, Ireland should be getting ready for a storm on Thursday as there's a possibility that winds will be at strong Tropical Storm level/weak cat 1 hurricane still - around 70-75mph. This sort of storm at those latitudes can result in trees being uprooted etc. so be prepared. The good news is that there is some wind shear ahead of him, so, in addition to the cold water, he should weaken a bit before getting to Ireland. It's tricky to say how much, but he won't grow. A big issue will be the waves on the west coast - expect them to be ginormous (and move away from the coast if you are in an area which gets coastal erosion in winter storms)! 

After crossing Ireland, and once in England, he will still have some decent wind and maybe a little rain (because it rains with every gust over there and I don't think they've had enough this week). This will still be at Tropical Storm level (or strong gale force if you like) - maybe with winds close to 55-65mph - it'll be a very blustery day on Friday (uh-oh, I feel a song coming on...):

Hum dum dum dum ditty dum

Hum dum dum

Oh, the wind is lashing lustily

And the trees are thrashing thrustily

And the leaves are rustling gustily

So it's rather safe to say

That it seems that it may turn out to be 

It feels that it will undoubtedly 

It looks like a rather blustery day...

(from a very famous bear).

Remember, he could go anywhere in that white cone of uncertainty - so you should all be prepared. I'd stay at home on those days with a lovely cup of tea, if you can! (and maybe stock up on a few candles, just in case). 

More tomorrow! 

Ciao for now,

J. 

Twitter: jyovianstorm

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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast. This is not an official forecast.
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Hurricane Lorenzo: September 30, Update A

I thought we'd leave Lorenzo alone for a few days to practice some of his dance moves, and boy did he practice. He's still out there in the Atlantic but he did become a major hurricane (cat 3). He's slightly weaker at the moment due to wind shear, although still a decently strong cat 2 storm with winds of 105mph (cat 2 range: 96 - 110mph). Central pressure is 956mb. 

Lorenzo has been generally quite well behaved and is still on track to visit the Azores on Wednesday, en route to the Ireland/UK portion of the world... to weigh in on the looming Brexit fiasco, no doubt: 

He's currently at 32.0N, 41.2W, heading NE at a rapid 20mph. Interestingly, the cone of uncertainty is very narrow which means that the track forecast is good - this is good news. The more of this level of forecast there is, the sooner I can retire! ;-) 

Lorenzo remains a big boy (as we saw a few days ago) and his outer bands are already over the Azores, which are over 800 miles from his center still!

I'd agree with his cat 2 status - there is very good circulation in all levels of the troposphere, but the convection is not very symmetric around the eye and we can see that wind shear is playing a role in keeping him in check with the clouds streaming off to the north east: 

If you are on the Azores, I'm sure you know what to do! Be careful of the water - especially the storm surge and waves - the force is strong with this one.

There are a couple of other blobs in the Caribbean, but until they develop a bit, I'll just keep an eye on them.

More tomorrow, but for now, it's... Toodle pip!

J. 

Twitter: jyovianstorm

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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast. This is not an official forecast.
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