[Jyo_hurricane] TS Noel: October 31, Update A

I was going to send out another update yesterday but there wasn't much to
add from the morning update - during the day he continued to move westward
over Cuba and it knocked some wind out of him (all puns intended :) ).

His current wind speed max is about 40 mph (TS: 39 - 73 mph), so he's
barely a TS. Actually, other than some very heavy convection over the
Bahamas, I'm not sure he would be a TS. I'm glad that the NHC know where
his center of circulation is, because from the satellite images it is
difficult to identify and from a wind-based analysis it looks like the
lower level atmospheric circulation is slightly south of Cuba, the
mid-levels are over northern Cuba, and there isn't any to speak of at the
upper levels.

He is still in a region of moderate-to-strong wind shear, so the rainfall
activity is still to the north and east of the circulation.

He is now moving in a north-northwestward direction, suggesting that he is
beginning to make that turn and is moving clockwise around that little
high pressure (from the '6' to towards the '9' if it was a clock face). He
is still over Cuba, but if the center is where the NHC says it is, he is
about to emerge off northern Cuba. Inhibiting development is the wind
shear, but he will be over warmer waters again - over 28 deg C. If he is
making 'the turn', later today he should be moving northward.

The windy weather we have been having over Florida over the past couple of
days was not because we were feeling the storm, but because of the
complicated low pressure front and stubborn high pressure system in a
relatively small area creating a big gradient in pressure - the stronger
the gradient, the stronger the wind flows. But in the next day or two, the
breezy winds will most likely be from the storm, and those of you down in
south-east Florida may experience them - currently TS winds are being felt
175 miles from the center. If he makes the northward turn, then his center
and heavy convection will stay away from south Florida. That's what to
look for today. But even if his center comes close to Florida, the
precipitation (which is what this storm is all about more than the wind)
will be to the east, and mostly offshore.

I'll send out another update today when/if things change. I guess no-one
told Noel he's here on the wrong holiday. Have a Happy Halloween.
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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