a lovely dream and the alarm goes off (too early)? Yeah? Well welcome to
the Atlantic Hurricane Season of 2009.
I was so hoping that swirling mass of clouds off North Carolina
yesterday would just vanish, but it has developed and the National
Hurricane Center has just upgraded it to the first official 'Tropical
Depression' of the season... or as I would say, the first 'blobette' of
the season.
The official center of circulation is at 37.3N, 71W, and it is heading
NE at 17 mph and out to sea. From satellite images it looks like the
center is a little south of that, at about 36.9N, 71W. Maximum estimated
winds are 35 mph. If the wind speed increases to >39 mph (34 knots), it
will become Tropical Storm Ana. Central pressure is estimated to be 1007
mb. Circulation is only in the lower part of the atmosphere and water
temperatures are a cool 24-26 deg C, but wind shear is light and there
is a lot of moisture in the surrounding atmosphere. So, if it does
become a TS, it won't stay one for very long. This is the same as the
NHC forecast.
I'll send out another update later (or tomorrow).
I consider this a warm-up exercise. It gives folks time to find the keys
to the hurricane hunter planes, grab a cup of coffee, remember what a
hurricane actually is, etc etc. ;)
I'm still saving my official 'welcome to the season' message for June 1.
J.
Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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