Sunday, August 16, 2009

TS Ana, TS Bill, and TD4 off West Florida: August 16 Update A

O.k., o.k... I'm sorry I left! What d'ya all do? Start swimming in circles
as soon as I got on the plane? ;)

Blobette off West Florida (just upgraded to TD 4 as I wrote this):
I'm not expecting anyone on the west coast of Florida to be awake at 5am,
but in case you are and have nothing better to do than get on the
computer, there is a blobette off your coast. It was the blob that dumped
rain in the Bahamas a couple of days ago (and has since had a sex change
to become a blobette :)).

Convection started back up with this as it entered the Gulf, just off SW
Florida and circulation slowly started to develop as it moved up the west
coast. There is now circulation in the lower atmosphere, and some strong
stormy weather just off the coast. Water temperatures are in excess of 30
deg C. It's currently centered somewhere around 27.5N, 83.5W. From the few
remaining buoys on the West Florida Shelf (they are slowly being pulled
out due to lack of funding - I'll come back to this some other time), wind
speeds are between 20-30 knots, so the system is not yet strong enough to
be a tropical storm, but it's heading in that direction. The next name is

The NHC currently have it forecast to move North-northwest at 16mph. It's
possible of course, but I think it will either slow down or move more
northward and onto Florida somewhere between the Big Bend and Tampa area.
Whether it makes landfall as a TS or not, those along that coastline
should watch out for storm surge (in addition to rain and thundery
weather). You can check water levels by looking at - click on the 'state
maps' on the left panel, and then on the state you are interested in, and
the location. So, for example, in St. Petersburg the water levels are
already 0.5 ft above the predicted normal level (as indicated by the green
line in the top plot: the blue line is the predicted normal level, and the
red are the actual observations). Ft. Myers peaked at just under 1ft above
normal. If you are in Cedar Key, do keep an eye on those water levels!

TS Ana:
Not much change in strength yet. Winds are about 40mph, central pressure
1005 mb. She's picked up forward speed and is moving at a whopping 20 mph
in a W-NW direction. Center is now at 14.6N, 53.8W. Convection is still
removed from the center of circulation.

TS Bill:
Very minor strengthening, with winds at about 45 mph and central pressure
1002 mb. Center at about 11.7N, 36.7W. The NHC appear to have it a little
west of this location at 37.2W... but with a storm this weak it's tricky
to see the exact center so it's somewhere in the 37W area.

Remember to pay attention to the NHC and emergency managers. Send me
updates from where you are if you can (and let me know where you are too).

More later.


Blog entries archived at:

These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If,
hypothetically, I was there and I was, hypothetically, going to "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'd let you know.


Jim said...

From Clearwater; Dreary with bands of very wet dreary since yesterday. Already felt depressionish since yesterday as well.

Jyo said...

Thanks Jim! Appreciate the 'on the ground' feedback. It's much better than looking at satellite images and trying to figure out what's going on.