Thursday, November 05, 2009

TS Ida: November 5 Update A

I'm going to go easy on the NHC today because they do, after all, have a
tough job. Of course, if I believed Ida was still a hurricane by the time
they called it earlier today, then I'm pretty sure aliens made crop

Ida, from the data I saw, was a hurricane in the early hours of this
morning (EST). By the time she made landfall in Nicaragua, she had already
lost a lot of convection and would have been a strong TS. I think the call
was about 7-8 hours too late. Rather like the belated upgrade to TS status
yesterday - which officially jumped from a 35 mph TD to a strong TS with
60 mph winds. Maybe their timing is sluggish because they've not had much
practice lately. Anyway, I agree with them now, she's back to being a TS.

She's been dumping rain on Nicaragua for over 24 hours (not good).
Official wind speed is 60 mph (TS range: 39-73 mph). I think she's weaker
than that. Central pressure 990 mb. She's at about 13.3N, 83.7W, and is
moving NNW at a 3mph crawl. The good news is that the longer she remains
over land, the weaker she gets, which means that as she re-emerges into
the Caribbean (north of her current location), she may not reintensify to
TS status. A slow/stalled storm has other problems when it comes to
forecasting. The pressure fields around it change, which means the track
becomes tricky. At the moment I'd say she would curve around towards Cuba
instead of heading into the Gulf because of interaction with a front that
is moving southwards (currently over mid-FL). It depends on timing and
when she picks up some speed (motion, not the drug! ;) ).

That's all for today folks. Another update tomorrow, in which I'll
continue to be super-nice to the NHC. ;)


DISCLAIMER: These are my opinions, not those of any organization I
represent. If you disagree with them, we can debate it over a cup of tea
(PG Tips). ;) If a storm is approaching, please pay attention to your
local emergency managers, weather service, and of course, the NHC.

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