The
circulation has slowly been improving over the last day or so as it moved southward
from the South Carolina coast. It is now centered just slightly north of Grand
Bahama. It has struggled to become a fully-fledged storm (first one would be
Arthur) because dry air around the blob has inhibited a lot of convection
forming near the center, as you can see:
The
sea surface temperature is about 29 deg C., with the upper 75-100m above 26 deg
C. This is definitely warm enough to
help the storm to develop (storms need sea surface temperatures of 26.5 deg C
to develop) and it has helped to produce a few buckets of rain over parts of
Florida (as I’m sure you may have noticed if you are there), to the west of the
center of circulation.
Officially
the forecast is for it to move to the south and west, and then loop back to the
north and east, which should take it into southern Florida in the next few days
– but because it is quite poorly formed at the moment, this may not happen. Given
the dry air and proximity to land, I am not certain that it will develop into a
fully-fledged tropical storm (the current official forecast is for a Tropical
Depression in the next 2 days), but even if it does, it will mostly be a
rainmaker (with some interesting thunderstormy sort of weather).
I’ll
definitely be back tomorrow. We may have a Tropical Depression by then… or even
a very weak Tropical Storm King Arthur! ;-)
Ciao!J.
Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm
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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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