Tropical Storm Bertha: August 1, Update A

I had a terribly busy week doing important things like painting my nails and drinking glasses of wine, but finally I have a moment to write!

I saw that the NHC upgraded a blobette to TS Bertha yesterday. I remember the last Bertha, 6 years ago... Big Beautiful Bertha. This Bertha is definitely not so big or beautiful at the moment. She's a dinky little thing with winds of 50mph (central pressure is 1007mb) and not much circulation or convection...

She is now in the Northeastern Caribbean, having crossed the Lesser Antilles earlier today, and is heading towards Puerto Rico. She is currently moving WNW at 24 mph (scampering along) and is currently at 15.2N, 61.9W (ish). The track forecast looks good to me.

The convection is to the north and east of the center, as you can see, so it looks like you guys in the VIs might finally get a spot of rain. Good news, hey? Just bring the cats indoors... apparently some of them don't like water. ;-)

Although sea surface temperatures are a rather warm 28-29 deg C, with warm waters in the upper 100-125m, I don't think she will intensify much in the next couple of days because there is some nice wind shear and she is still moving in oodles of dry and dusty air (known as the Saharan Air Layer) which you can see in this image as the lovely orange 'stuff' (technical term ;-)):

<Really Obvious Jargon Alert!> Saharan Air Layer (SAL): This is dry dusty air blowing off northern Africa (the Sahara Desert to be precise, in case the name didn’t give that away ;-)) and usually inhibits storm development. <End Really Obvious Jargon Alert!>

Once she moves away from the SAL and away from the Puerto Rico 'landmass' area, then she may intensify a bit more. Although I'm estimating this will take a couple of days, she is moving quite fast so we may see some intensification later tomorrow/early Sunday.

Good luck out there! More tomorrow.

Toodle pip!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm
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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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