Saturday, October 18, 2014

Hurricane Gonzalo: October 17, Update A

I can see clearly now the rain has gone, it's gonna be a bright bright sunshiny day (J. Nash)... Hurray! Bermuda, that little pink dot in the middle of the Atlantic, is just about emerging after a day of Gonzalo's rain and windy weather.

I heard from Steve on Bermuda about 7 hours ago, who said it was a storm, and windy outside. He doesn't recommend going out in a hurricane by the way.

Circulation remained strong throughout the troposphere, so Gonzalo was/is definitely a hurricane. The question is what was the intensity.

I checked in on the winds at the island airport throughout the day and the highest sustained winds I saw were 93mph, which would make Gonzalo a strong cat 1 storm (Cat 1 range: 74-95mph). The strongest observed winds when the edge of the eye made landfall (at around 8.30pm local time) were around 76mph, again indicating a cat 1 storm. The NHC had estimated winds of 110mph, which would put him as a strong cat 2 storm (cat 2 range: 96-110mph).

Although he had an eye in the IR satellite and radar images, it wasn't clear in the visible satellite images (this was pulled earlier in the day) as there were clouds covering the eye, which further supports that reasoning that this was a cat 1 storm:

We'll find out tomorrow how Bermuda faired. I thought I'd keep this update brief... for now, it's definitely wine-o-clock!

More tomorrow!

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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