Wednesday, August 26, 2015

Tropical Storms Danny and Erika: August 25, Update A

Due to severe technical difficulties (my computer has been having a rather bad hair day since yesterday), I missed the end of Tropical Storm Danny. I'm here on a 'borrowed' machine (thank you hubby dearest! :-)).

Not surprisingly, I see Danny didn't quite survive the journey across the the islands. So, that's the end of that one and we move right along to little Miss Tropical Storm Erika. She is at 16.0N, 55.2W, heading west at 18mph. Winds are 40mph, central pressure is 1006mb. This makes her a very weak Tropical Storm (TS range: 39-73mph). She has circulation in the lower half of the troposphere and some convection.

There are a couple of factors working against her intensifying too much... first, she is heading into an area of higher wind shear, and second, given the track she is supposed to be on means that she will also interact with the islands. But there are also a couple of factors that may allow her to intensify! First, she is not running into as much dry/dusty air as Danny did (he took care of that for her!), and she is currently moving over water that is 27-29 deg C, and the upper 75-150m is warmer than 26 deg C (also warmer than Danny).

I think this means that we will see an increase in convection before she crosses the islands, but she won't get too strong and doesn't look like she'll get to hurricane strength before the islands. As I said with Danny, the track forecast from the NHC for 1-2 days out is pretty good now, so I'll go with that.

That's it for now. Must return ze machine (before someone realizes it's in use ;-)). I have another travel day tomorrow so I may not manage to get on but we'll see.

Ciao for now!

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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