November 30: Last Day of the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Well my friends here we are again, approaching the end of yet another rather dull year...... on planet Mars. Planet Earth, on the other hand, has had quite an interesting year! By the way, 687 Earth days is how long it takes Mars to circle the Sun. Can you imagine a year lasting 687 days? That's a looong time. Coincidentally, a modern US Presidential race now takes approximately the same length of time as a year on Mars (minus a mere 1-2 months)! Hmm. Perhaps it's time to step that back a notch or two. Luckily for us, the hurricane season is still only ~183 days... and today is the last day. Woohoo! :-)

(Drumroll)... 'Tis time for the 2016 Atlantic Season Grand Reckoning. I know I missed a couple due to some work or travel malarky, including H. Otto - he visited Nicaragua last week. But officially this year we had 15 named tropical storms, of which 7 were hurricanes and 3 were major hurricanes (cat 3 or higher). We even had a category 5 in the Atlantic this year - Hurricane Matthew, who became the first cat 5 storm in the Atlantic since Hurricane Felix in 2007 with maximum winds officially at 160mph! This year was, as predicted by everyone and their cat and dog, a slightly above-average season (apparently seasonal hurricane forecasts are easier that political forecasts). The long-term average number of storms per year is 12, with a long-term average of 6 hurricanes.

Speaking of forecasts, the NHC are very very good when the storm is one to 1.5 days away from landfall. The intensity forecasting is still not very good in my not-very-humble opinion. But perhaps that will change soon... In case you missed the news, NOAA (with assistance from the lovely NASA) launched a new satellite in November - the GOES-R.

<Final Science Alert of the Season!> The GOES (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite) is the first of four next generation weather satellites. GOES-R was launched in November, and along with the others in the GOES-R series (to be launched over the next few years), it will provide weather data (including severe storms) every 30 seconds! How great is that?! :-) If you want to find out more about it, here's a short video. The satellite images that I use are from older GOES satellites (GOES-East/GOES-West). So I'm pretty sure that one of these years we'll have much better intensity forecasts because we have better data and better technology! <End Final Science Alert of the Season!>

I think that's it for a 'most interesting' year. Phew!

Before I run away for 6 months, I'd like to thank Doug M. at CMS/USF (www.marine.usf.edu) in Florida for the listserv, and Chris H. in Georgia and Ben A. for help with the website. I'd also like to thank the NHC for their hard work and for giving me something to rant about every once in a while. Keep up the good work folks! ;-) And of course, Thank YOU dear readers - the wittiest, most beautiful, intelligent people on this planet (well obviously you must be - you are reading this!). I heard from so many of you this year - many I didn't know were reading this - it was a lovely surprise! :-) Thank you also for the jokes, funny photos, and reports from the ground. Because of you, the blog website currently has 136, 177 hits! Last, but of course not least, a big thanks to my family and friends for the usual dose of sanity and laughter. And a very special thanks to my husband, Ben A., for keeping me supplied with wine, ice cream, and cups of tea - the stuff to make a blog go round.

I'll be doing the usual things during the off-season... exploring a new planet, saving the world producing a movie, fixing a leaky sink, locating wormholes in time and space...

(credit: unknown internet source)

Yay... I can cross that last one off the list. ;-)

Speaking of saving the world, big things are happening at XPRIZE next year... Awards, new amazing competitions to change the world, and launches to the moon! Stay tuned for all of those. In the meantime, a quick note for now: If you know any app developers, there is a $100k competition out there for transforming ocean data into useful apps - the Big Ocean Button Challenge. Here's the link for anyone who would be interested in taking part: https://herox.com/bigoceanbutton/overview. (Also, XPRIZE is recruiting Teams for the following full XPRIZE competitions: The IBM-Watson Artificial Intelligence XPRIZE, the Water Abundance XPRIZE, and the Anu and Naveen Jain Women's Safety XPRIZE). 

Maybe I'll pop back and write an update during some of these landmark moments but in the meantime, I will continue to tweet, like any good twit (@JyovianStorm) - about weather, the oceans, XPRIZE, science and science fiction, and of course, my Hollywood lifestyle of the not-rich and not-very-famous-at-all! ;-) Please feel free to follow along.

Until next season (or quite possibly before) ... I wish you all a very safe and happy holiday and non-hurricane season filled with much joy and merriment and good TV and films (I'm already a bit skeptical of the new Star Wars though) and glasses of yummy stuff. Have a wonderful and Happy New Year!

Toodle Pip!
J.

Twitter @JyovianStorm
Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Hurricane Nicole: October 13, Update A

Hurricane Nicole hit Bermuda earlier today as a mid-sized cat 3 storm, with winds officially at 120mph (cat 3 range: 111 - 129mph)...

So far the reports are of injuries and damage to infrastructure, power loss etc. I hope everything is back to normal as quickly as possible! 

There is some amazing drone footage taken as the eye was passing overhead... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tEhXIbHyty0

Meanwhile, even higher overhead, footage of Nicole from the Space Station.... https://youtu.be/KErMYvcPge4

She is currently at 34.4N, 61.2W, heading ENE at 21mph. Winds are officially still 100mph, central pressure is 967mb, making her a cat 2 at the moment (cat 2 range: 96-110mph). Wind shear has taken its toll and I think she is much weaker than that now, as you can see from the latest satellite imagery...  

No eye, no structure. That little pink island is still there though. There is almost no circulation in the upper troposphere now. Here is the vorticity (circulation) map from 200mb (upper troposphere)... 

No red blob near the storm, just a mild blue blob. I would say she is a strong Tropical Storm at the most - winds around 70mph perhaps. 

It looks like she will peter out in the Atlantic next week...

So unless she does anything weird, I think this will be my last update on Nicole. 

I'll be back when the next one (Otto) pops up (if he does)!

Toodle pip,
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/

Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

Hurricane Nicole: October 12, Update A

Ooof. That sums today up. 

Hurricane Nicole is currently at 30.6N, 66.2W, moving NNE at 12mph, directly towards Bermuda:

The eye is pretty solid, so I would agree with the NHC that this is a category 4 storm. They say that the winds are 130mph, central pressure is 950mb. This is officially barely a cat 4 storm (cat 4 range: 129-155mph), but I think that she may be a little stronger, maybe 135-140mph. Her structure is obviously very good! 

By the way, if you are looking for Bermuda... it is that little pink spot NNE of the eye. The wind shear is now beginning to kick in - we can see this because the clouds are streaming off to the north and east by the end of the movie loop compared to earlier. However, it probably won't be fast enough for Bermuda - it looks like they will have at least a cat 2 storm, but more likely a major cat 3 or weak cat 4. 

The eye is also on the Bermuda radar now... 

You can watch the radar loop here: http://www.weather.bm/radar.asp, click on one of the two 'animation' links - the image above is the 250km animation loop. You can also see the wind speed at this weather station on the left side of the page - winds are currently almost at Tropical Storm force at 38mph (Tropical Storm range: 39-73mph), with gusts of 58mph. 

Good luck Bermuda! 
Stay Safe!
J. 

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/

Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

Hurricane Nicole: October 11, Update A

I have a fuzzy head - from a cold, not from a drink alas - so take this short update with a pinch of salt! :-)

Nicole is now a cat 1 hurricane with winds officially at 90mph, central pressure 970mb. This makes her a strong cat 1 (cat 1 range: 74-95mph). I would more-or-less agree with this assessment because she has an eye but the convection isn't very strong:

I think she may be a border-line cat 2 storm actually, with winds of 95-100mph. The convection isn't very strong though because there is dry air to her north. The wind shear weakened which allowed her to develop, but it looks like she is going to be heading back into a region of stronger wind shear, which should prevent her from getting too big and may even make her weaker before she gets to Bermuda.

She is at 27.3N, 66.6W (oooh... 666... a topical tropical storm, being just in time for Halloweenie! ;-)) and she is drifting westward at 2mph. In fact, she's practically stationary again, which means that her track may change as the pressure fields around her changes, but it seems unlikely that it will change much given that she is about a day away from Bermuda, passing by on Thursday morning. Of course, the outer bands will be felt sooner (if she starts to move)!

I hope everyone is ready! 
Stay safe out there!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/

Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

Tropical Storm Nicole: October 10, Update A

Super quick update on Tropical Storm Nicole, who is still a Tropical Storm.

She is officially at 26.8N, 65.5W and has picked up speed (as in forward motion, not the street drug!! ;-)) and is moving northward at gentle 6mph now. Her general forecast track strategy is to aim for Bermuda...

... haven't I already told you guys to turn off that Hurricane-magnet device?

We are looking at her passing over Bermuda overnight on Wednesday (her track forecast sped up since yesterday) - 2 days away and the current intensity forecast is that she will be a hurricane. At the moment her winds are slight weaker than 24 hours ago, at 60mph, and her central pressure is 992mb. This makes her a mid-sized Tropical Storm (range: 39-73mph). 

Her vorticity (circulation) is still good in the lower half of the troposphere, but the upper tropospheric circulation is still connected to a front and is not that circular pattern we expect from a tropical system. Here is the vorticity at 200mb for Nicole now, and below that is the vorticity at 200mb for Matthew from a few days ago as an example of what a hurricane should look like that high up... 

See the nice confined circular-ish pattern that is Matthew, the Hurricane? 

The satellite imagery shows that she is still struggling with wind shear, with most of the convection still streaming out over a large area to the south and east of her center of circulation:

(She's the yellow/blue blobette in more-or-less the middle of the image above).

It does look like wind shear is diminishing, so that should change soon, although she still has that dry air I mentioned yesterday to her north to deal with:

We'll know in a few hours whether the dry air is a larger player than the wind shear - if her convection doesn't close around her center of circulation, then the dry air wins... if it does, then the wind shear was a bigger factor. 

Must run but more tomorrow. Get ready with the dark'n'stormies (yum yum) Bermuda!
Ciao,
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/

Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

Former Hurricane Matthew and Tropical Storm Nicole: October 9, Update A

From what I hear, most people on the east coast are breathing a sigh a relief that Matthew is over and they can get on with life again... is it time for a nice cuppa tea yet? 

Former Hurricane Matthew
He is no longer officially a storm, although there are remnant bits of him floating out there in the Atlantic and some of his convection is now over New England and Canada, it is definitely more of a front than a tropical storm:

He reached the Carolinas yesterday as a very weak cat 1, with winds officially at 75mph (cat 1: 74-95mph). But it wasn't really the winds that were the biggest issue - it was the water. Almost always, it's the water. In looking at the Tidesonline data, it looks like Charleston has had the highest surge on the eastern seaboard, with data showing ~6ft storm surge - that is 6ft above normal tidal fluctuations: 

Add to that the rain, which exceeded 10 inches in some places, and you have a lot of water to wade through - certainly higher than your regular old wellington boots! It looks like North Carolina got the worst of this as far as flooding goes. 

As we now know, the track is not going to loop back around and he won't be revisiting the Bahamas or Florida or anywhere else. There was a huge amount of uncertainty in the models as I mentioned, and the pressure fields were quite complex. However, this also shows that the models have a long long way to go before their 3-5 days forecasts are close to reality! Fortunately, their 1 and 2 day forecasts are much better.

Aftermath Part "I lost count": 
This is the last time you will encounter a Hurricane Matthew (or even a Tropical Storm Matthew) - given the destruction he has caused, I expect that the name 'Matthew' will be retired from the naming list. Any storm that causes this level of damage is removed, otherwise, you see names repeat every 6 years. 

The latest from Haiti: 1000 dead, 1.5 million need humanitarian aid and are in shelters.

The latest from the US: 19 dead, 3000 in shelters, 2 million buildings without power. 

As he is now post-tropical, the NHC stopped giving updates on him. This is also my last update on Matthew. 

Phew... and moving right along, now Nicole!

Tropical Storm Nicole
She is currently at 24.4N, 65.3W, moving N at a whopping 2mph! Still almost stationary because she is still stuck with high pressure all around her - there is no easy path for her to take. The longer she stays stationary, the more unpredictable her future path becomes because the pressure fields around her shift. We can see this because again, her cone of uncertainty is quite large after 2 days... currently, she is scheduled to arrive in Bermuda in 4 days, on Thursday:

Dear Bermuda, I would definitely get the wellies out and dust down the rain jackets and get the wine and ice cream stocked up, but at 4 days out, and with that large cone, don't be too surprised if that forecast track does not quite pan out. Hopefully you can have the day off anyway and play golf or something instead! ;-) 

She is currently at strong Tropical Storm with winds of 65mph, central pressure 989mb (TS range: 39-73mph). The forecast is for her to increase to a hurricane on Tuesday. Her circulation is good in the lower half of the troposphere, but not in the upper troposphere - up there, she is actually part of a front. This is the structure of a Tropical Storm, not a Hurricane, so I agree with the NHC assessment that she is a Tropical Storm. As she moves northwards (eventually), she will move away from this front. 

Her convection is pretty messy right now (clearly she put her make-up on in the dark!): 

You can sort of see the center of circulation, and pretty much all the convection is to the east of that, which indicates that she is under some very strong wind shear. The wind shear is around 30-40 knots, which is strong (for such a weak storm), and it looks like it will continue at that sort of level for another day - possibly much more. 

There are a couple of things keeping her from becoming a hurricane now. First, of course there is the wind shear. But second, there is a lot of dry air to her north:

The sea surface temperatures are certainly warm enough to keep her going - from her current location to Bermuda, the coolest surface temperatures are 27 deg C. The upper 75m of the water column are also above 26.5 deg C at the moment, which will allow her to intensify. 

I am not sure yet whether that dry air will be enough to keep her in check if the wind shear dies down. Ultimately, it is the shear that I will be keeping an eye on. 

I'll be back tomorrow.
Night!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/

Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

Hurricane Matthew and Tropical Storm Nicole: October 7, Update A

Are we there yet? Nah, I guess there is still Georgia and the Carolina's to go. But Florida is almost through! Terribly sad news from Haiti though... almost 900 died from the storm - and there are still areas that they are looking into. 

Meanwhile, luckily for Florida the storm remained mostly off-shore - a shift of a few miles would have resulted in considerably more damage! Unfortunately at least 4 people lost their lives and it looks like over a million are without power. 

Matthew is at 31.6N, 80.6W, heading N at 12mph. For those of you who are still awake (and have power), you may realize that a due north path against a southwest-northeast sloping coastline might, just, result in him making landfall. First, I don't think he is moving due north - it looks like NNE to me at least. And second, as he does get closer to the coastline, he will interact with land more, and that will make him weaker. His official track still shows that he will do a loop:

But I think as he interacts more with land, his intensity will decrease and he may not make it back to the Bahamas (wouldn't that be nice?). The NHC have already decreased the intensity from yesterday's forecasts. 

He is officially a cat 2 storm with winds of 105mph (cat 2 range: 96-110mph), and central pressure of 955mb. I would perhaps lower the speed by 15 mph and say he's a cat 1 storm at this point. He no longer has an eye, so ~90 mph winds is about right...

... plus, his upper tropospheric vorticity (circulation) is slightly weaker. He is also in a region of slightly higher wind shear, which is also taking its toll. 

The biggest issues are from the storm surge. 24 hours ago, I showed you storm surge data from Trident Pier (Cape Canaveral) which had a surge of just over 2 feet above normal and rising. Now, ~24 hours later, this is what that looks like:

Such a beautiful data set, so clearly showing the storm passing! It looked like the surge high was 4ft above normal, with the sudden drop as the winds changed direction as the storm went past. Just gorgeous! (did I tell you I was a geek? Data is Cool :-)). It also shows that the maximum winds at Cape Canaveral were 45 knots, which is 52mph (1 knot = 1.15mph)... Tropical Storm level winds. 

In Jacksonville, it looks like the surge reached over 6ft above normal, and Georgia and South Carolina are already showing around 4 ft above normal and are still rising. Here is the data from Charleston: 

Tropical Storm Nicole
The NHC have dropped her down to a mid-size Tropical Storm with winds of 60mph (TS range: 39-73mph), central pressure of 997mb. She is at 26.3N, 65.3W and heading S at 7mph. Here she is in the framework of the Atlantic: 

She really doesn't look like a well formed Tropical Storm, and her circulation is now only in the lower half of the troposphere  classic Tropical Storm structure, so I will agree with their 60mph analysis.

She is going to be doing a little back-and-forth thing: 

 She is also in some wind shear, which is why she is weak and elongated and jagged-looking (technical term ;-)) - you can see the effects of the wind shear in her cloud pattern which stretches off to the northeast. Bermuda... you guys should be prepared, although at the moment I don't think she will really amount to much. 

More tomorrow! Stay safe out there... live long and prosper! 
Ciao for now, 
J.  

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/

Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

Hurricane Matthew and Hurricane Nicole: October 6, Update B

I have been hearing from people all across Florida today. It sounds like everyone is ready - evacuated or hunkering down with supplies... 

(thanks to Keith L. for sharing this photo from yesterday - posted by JoAnn T.).

Hurricane Matthew
Matthew is definitely looking weaker. He is officially at around 27.6N, 79.7W, heading NW at 14mph. The NHC dropped his winds to 130mph (central pressure of 938mb) this afternoon, making him a border-line cat 4 storm (cat 4 range: 130-156mph). They just dropped them again to 120mph, which puts him firmly in the cat 3 range (111-129mph). I think he may be slightly weaker - possibly a strong cat 2 (cat 2 range: 96-110mph) now though because his eye is not clear, and his convection has decreased slightly:

He still has good circulation in the upper troposphere, so he can re-intensify, and regardless, he will still be a tough storm - the red areas are strong winds with heavy thunderstorms and tornadoes. Regarding his intensification, although he is over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, he is now skirting the edge of Florida so he is feeling some land effects. Also, he is moving into an area of slightly higher wind shear, which will also inhibit his development. 

The main things are power loss (Jan P. said he lost power in Vero Beach about 2-3 hours ago) and storm surge. Because storms swirl in an anti-clockwise direction, as he moves up the coast, he will be pushing water into the coast in front of him. For those who missed where to look for storm surge data, this is from an earlier post: 

<Technical Alert!>  You can look at the storm surge from this Tides Online link. At the moment they have kindly pulled the links out for a bunch of the east US coast to make it easy for you to see those, but in general click on the 'State Maps' tab on the left, and then click on the State you are interested in, and then the location within that State. For example, here is the data from Trident Pier, Florida at the moment:

The top graph shows the water level. In this graph, the red line is the actual observed sea level, the blue line is what the predicted water level would be because of the tides, and the green line is the difference between the two. The height of the green line gives you the storm surge level, so Trident Pier currently has a storm surge of over 2ft and rising.  The graph below that is wind speed and direction - you can see the winds are still increasing, and they are from the northeast, meaning he is still to the south of this location. Below that is air pressure which is steadily dropping, and below that is air and sea surface temperature (but who cares about that in a storm, hey? ;-)). <End Technical Alert!>

A few people have asked about any storm surge prediction models. I don't normally do models, but the NHC have started to put out an experimental storm surge model. I am very curious to see how this compares to real data! The link to that is from the NHC main page - under the storm, it is called 'Storm Surge Inundation'. It looks like the Storm Surge in the Trident Pier area is forecast to be above 1 ft... hmm. 

The other place to look for real data (ok, and some models :-)) is the SECOORA website (Southeast Coastal Ocean Observing System Regional Association). They have put up a special Hurricane Matthew page. There are all sorts of flavours (with a 'u') of cupcakes on this page - from buoy data to radar data that show the water current velocity, to wind sensors along the coast. 

There is also of course the National Weather Service Radar, and the National Data Buoy Center, where you can get winds for sites that are offshore (some of which are part of SECOORA). Here is Matthew from the NWS Radar in Melbourne:

So his track is a bit loopy (haha... all puns are intended! :-)). At the moment it looks like he is heading back on Tuesday to finish visiting the islands in the Bahamas that he missed this time around! 

I don't have enough high quality data at the moment on this, but as I said yesterday, this is a very complicated pressure field we have out there, so it is difficult to say what exactly will happen at days 3-5... which is why the cone is so huge - a lot of uncertainty. Stay focussed on the the 1 and 2 day track, which actually also has way more uncertainty in it than usual. 

Hurricane Nicole
She is currently at 27.4N, 65.2W, heading nowhere in particular. She is stationary and stuck in that high pressure that is also messing with Matthew. 

The NHC have said she's a cat 2 storm with winds of 105mph, central pressure 968mb. I'm not sure I buy this (ok, I think they are quite off!) - at the most, I would say she's a cat 1 storm with winds just around 85-90mph, but not a cat 2! The upper level vorticity (circulation) is barely there, and she doesn't have much of an eye to talk about: 

Huh. Cat 2. 

That's it for today. Tomorrow I'll make up some more stuff. 

I hope everyone is safe tonight and tomorrow - a long day for Florida... and then we move onto Georgia and South Carolina! 

Ciao for now,
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/

Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

Hurricane Matthew and Hurricane Nicole: October 6, Update A

Really quick lunchtime update from this part of the world...

Matthew is still crossing the Bahamas. It looks like he clipped Andros, which put a slight dent in him. Between Andros and Florida are Bimini and the Berry Islands and he is passing directly between them. The wonderful thing about the area between these two little itty-bitty patches of land is that the water between them is super shallow, which means he doesn't have that deep warm water to draw from. So he has definitely weakened:

It looks like once he crosses this shallow area, he may also clip Grand Bahama. All of this is not great news for the Bahamas, alas, but it is veering marginally towards the better end of the spectrum for Florida. He still has to cross the Gulf Stream, so that will add to his intensification, but he will also be interacting with the land mass of Florida by then, which will keep him from intensifying too much. 

His upper tropospheric vorticity (circulation) is also looking weaker (not as red as it was a couple of days ago): 

This indicates a structural level change, not just convection. This is also heading in the right direction and suggests a slightly weaker storm. 

I would conservatively put him as a strong cat 3 at the moment, although the NHC have him conservatively as a mid-level cat 4 with winds of 140mph. Cat 3 range: 111-129mph. Cat 4 range: 130-156mph. Close enough - what's ~10mph difference when we're talking of >100mph?    

In Update B tonight, I'll cover storm surge - where you can find info on that for those who have only just discovered the joys of this blog (where have you been?? ;-)). Also, other sources of data (not models), including SECOORA - the Southeast Coastal Ocean Observing System, which has buoys, radars, ok some models, and other goodies in one location: http://secoora.org/hurricane-matthew. 

Oh, and Tropical Storm is now Hurricane Nicole. She doesn't look like it to me (mumble grumble), but I'll save that for later. Gotta do my day job! 

Ciao for now,
J. 

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/

Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

Hurricane Matthew and Tropical Storm Nicole: October 5, Update A

And the sage of Hurricane Monster Matthew continues... 

The Aftermath Part 1: Haiti, Dominican Republic, and Cuba
The first reports are now coming out of Hispaniola and Cuba. As expected, Haiti is a disaster because Hurricane Matthew hit as a cat 4 storm. The last cat 4 to hit Haiti was in 1969 - Hurricane Flora (which killed 8,000).  It is estimated that over 3,200 homes have been destroyed and about 350,000 people need aid in Haiti. Add to this the possibility of disease, including cholera. This is the worst humanitarian crisis since the 2010 earthquake for Haiti. The death toll is not yet known - the last I heard was 22 in Haiti, plus four in the Dominican Republic.  

Cuba was better off - he went across the relatively sparsely populated eastern tip, destroyed dozens of homes, damaged hundreds, but they did manage to evacuate 380,000 people before he stopped by. 

Hurricane Monster Matthew: Intensity
He is now slowly crossing the Bahamas and is at 23.7N, 76.7W, heading NW at 10mph. 

Fortunately he did decrease in intensity as he left Cuba, and has officially been a cat 3  with winds of 115mph (cat 3 range: 111-129mph), central pressure 954mb. I actually think he was a solid cat 2 (cat 2 range: 96-110mph) earlier today because his eye was not well developed and his upper level vorticity (circulation) had weakened slightly. However, as expected, this is changing as he has been moving away from the land mass of Cuba and over warm water, and in the last few hours the eye has re-developed:

I think he is now a strong cat 3 again. If his eye goes over any of the islands, then he will decrease slightly in intensity again - and there is a possibility that his eye will pass over Nassau or Andros (the largest island in the chain). Not too good for the Bahamas.

As I said yesterday, once he crosses the Bahamas, he has got room to intensify a little more because he has to cross the Gulf Stream, with its very deep warm waters. There is some wind shear over Florida, but it is not enough to really put any marks on him. 

It does look like at least a cat 3 will impact Florida. And also, everyone in Florida - even on the west coast, should be ready in case you get some of the stronger outer bands.

Track

Things got interesting with the track today! My phone has been beeping all evening with you guys sending me the latest spaghetti models, which look a little different than the forecasts you are used to seeing...

... oops, wrong spaghetti models (a Russian guy, Sergey Pakhomov, made these) ! ;-) This is what you are fluttering over... 

I can see why the models think something like this is going to happen, but it really is too soon to say if Florida will get hit twice by Matthew! (Although I have to say that it isn't beyond the realms of possibility.) The models are not even sure what will happen in 3 days, let alone 7-10 days!! Here is the official 5-day track as of today: 

In looking at the data I have (which is not much because we don't have a lot of data over the oceans really... after all, why would we need that?!?), there is a high pressure ridge building up in front of him and crossing over northern Florida/Georgia/South Carolina. It has slowly been building over the past couple of days. There are two things a storm will do in this situation, depending on how far it is from the ridge. It will either slow down, because it is like going uphill, or it will shift to the west to try and get around it (which is why I said yesterday that everyone in Florida should be prepared, just in case). 

Today it looks like the High pressure is also building up over central Florida, so he really cannot move too far forward until that dissipates, and we should see a slow down in forward speed - which we have in the last few hours as he went from 12mph to 10mph. As he continues to slow down, this changes everything... which is why there is so much uncertainty in the forecast track beyond day 3.  

The question is, how much will he slow down and where and for how long. We'll see tomorrow how much he slows, but the worse case for the Bahamas is obviously if he stalls over them. 

I'll could try and explain the loopiness of the model tracks in words, but you may require a drink or two (or I may) to get it clear! It's a little complicated out there because of the high pressure building up, but also because Tropical Storm Nicole is a big low pressure area in the middle of the Atlantic. The best thing to do is stay focussed on the 1-2 day track, which the NHC are generally pretty good at anyway. Beyond that, the forecasting skills aren't up to snuff, especially with a ridge building up out there.

By the way, this isn't the first time that a storm has done a loop-de-loop. Last year, Hurricane Ida did a little loop. In 2012, Patty took a spin. In 2010, Julia tried to do a loop before petering out. In 2004, Hurricane Jeanne did a loop in the Atlantic before hitting Florida and so on.

Tropical Storm Nicole
As I said, she's part of the complication for Matthew's track. She is a strong Tropical Storm, close to being a Hurricane with winds officially at 70 mph, central pressure 995mb (cat 1 range: 74-95mph). She is at 26N, 64.1W, and heading NW at 9mph. 

She does have a really strong circulation signal in the lower half of the troposphere. Here it is at 500mb, which is about mid-way up:

You can see the nice 'round' shapes indicating a good storm structure and vorticity/circulation for both Hurricane Matthew and Tropical Storm Nicole in this mid-tropospheric map. Now looking at the upper troposphere (200mb): 

The signal for Hurricane Matthew is still a stand-alone round shape - this is what a hurricane should have. Nicole, on the other hand, is under an elongated area of red that stretches to the south - this is actually a trough (or front), so although the vorticity is high, it is not the same structure as a hurricane. At the moment, I would agree that she is a strong Tropical Storm. I would not classify Nicole as a hurricane because she doesn't have the correct structure.

She does have some convection, but again, not quite a hurricane... 

Because she is stuck under that high pressure, it doesn't look like she is forecast to go very far very fast... Bermuda, you have a bit of time methinks to get ready, assuming she survives for that long.

Finally, to figure out storm categories... the classic storm category photo I showed in this blog last year is doing the rounds again, and quite rightly so! Thanks to everyone who thought of sharing it with me! :-) It makes me chuckle every time I see it, and it is, indeed, one of my favourites, so here it is again for those who missed it... 

Ok, back to being serious... I'll do my best to mind-meld with the storm tomorrow and steer him away from Florida, but I should warn you not to hold your breath on the success of this effort. Evacuate if your local emergency managers are urging you to do so!!

Above all, STAY SAFE out there!! 
More tomorrow,
J. 

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/

Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.