Wednesday, October 12, 2016

Hurricane Nicole: October 11, Update A

I have a fuzzy head - from a cold, not from a drink alas - so take this short update with a pinch of salt! :-)

Nicole is now a cat 1 hurricane with winds officially at 90mph, central pressure 970mb. This makes her a strong cat 1 (cat 1 range: 74-95mph). I would more-or-less agree with this assessment because she has an eye but the convection isn't very strong:
I think she may be a border-line cat 2 storm actually, with winds of 95-100mph. The convection isn't very strong though because there is dry air to her north. The wind shear weakened which allowed her to develop, but it looks like she is going to be heading back into a region of stronger wind shear, which should prevent her from getting too big and may even make her weaker before she gets to Bermuda.

She is at 27.3N, 66.6W (oooh... 666... a topical tropical storm, being just in time for Halloweenie! ;-)) and she is drifting westward at 2mph. In fact, she's practically stationary again, which means that her track may change as the pressure fields around her changes, but it seems unlikely that it will change much given that she is about a day away from Bermuda, passing by on Thursday morning. Of course, the outer bands will be felt sooner (if she starts to move)!

I hope everyone is ready! 
Stay safe out there!

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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