June 1: Start of the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season!

Greetings and salutations my friends! I hope you are all well. I know it's been an age since I was last here, but I'm back because, well, 'tis the season ‘n stuff. ;-) So... Welcome to the Official Start of the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season! (And thank you John S. for being the first person ever to send me a 'wake-up for the season coffee’ via twitter). 

I missed a bit here and there since the last season, but I wasn't really asleep. I got swept up in a new role at work! (I know, I know, how could I let pesky work get in the way!?!).  But it’s super-interesting… I am now the Prize Lead for the newest Ocean XPRIZE - the $7M Shell Ocean Discovery XPRIZE - in which we are embarking on a journey to discover what’s at the bottom of our oceans.

(more info at oceandiscovery.xprize.org and in case you can’t read, we have a lovely video overview here (wait, why are you here if you can’t read?!? ;-))). 

That was a beginning. There was also an ending of note since the last season: Dr. William Gray (Bill Gray to some), one of the pioneers of hurricane science and the person who started the number of tropical storms/year prediction passed away a few weeks ago. Although I do not agree with the idea of estimating the number of storms in each season (as I may, perhaps, have mentioned once or twice or thrice before), the work that Bill Gray did for hurricane science was pretty darn tootin great. I was privileged to meet him a couple of times and hear him talk once. I toast to a life well lived. Thanks for everything!

Now onto the business at hand. Speaking of hurricane predictions, here is what the Usual Suspects have forecast for this year:

Tropical Storm Risk (prediction date: 27 May): 17 (+/-4) named storms, 9 (+/-3) hurricanes, 4 (+/-2) major hurricanes. 

Colorado State University/Klotzbach-Gray (prediction date: 14 April): 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes.

UK Met Office (prediction date: 12 May): 15 (+/-4) named storms, 9 (+/-2) hurricanes.

NOAA (prediction date: 27 May): 10-16 named storms, 4-8 hurricanes, 1-4 major hurricanes. 

Interestingly, they are all forecasting a slightly above-average active season (with the usual wiggle room of below average in case it doesn’t pan out of course). The long-term average number of named tropical storms is 12, and the long-term average number of hurricanes per year is 6.

I can say with 100% certainty that there will be at least one Hurricane (let’s call him Alex shall we?) and one Tropical Storm (and we’ll call her Bonnie) in 2016. In fact, I’ll be bold enough to forecast that the next named storm is going to be called Colin! I know, amazing, aren’t I? ;-)

Ok, I may have cheated a bit J … we already had Hurricane Alex way back in January, when everyone was still getting over their holiday food-comas. He visited the Azores and decided that was enough. And we just had Tropical Storm Bonnie who is currently winding down by dumping a bunch of rain over the Carolinas as she works her way up the US East Coast. She’s going to continue with the rain dumping because she is interacting with the Gulf Stream, but because she’s also interacting with land, it doesn’t look like she’ll get any stronger.

This wouldn’t be the Official Start of the Season if I didn’t cut and paste my top ten notes about this blog from last year so you have a reminder of what you are getting into for the next ~6 months! These are well worth reading again, but remember, if you get bored, it is also the Summer season so you should be able to watch the grass grow.

Top 10 things about this blog:

1. These updates are about fun, forecasting, and education... and tropical storms (and whatever else pops into my head that may, with some imagination and possibly after a glass or two of wine, fit those three words). It is just what I think.

2. I have a British sense of humoUr... you have been warned.

3. This is my hobby - sometimes you'll get one update a day, sometime four. If you are really lucky, you won't get any. If you wish to pay me to write, let me know and I'll send out updates as frequently as you like.

4. I hope you like Monty Python, Eddie Izzard, The IT Crowd. And other Funny Stuff.

5. If you have any questions (preferably about tropical storms), please do not hesitate to ask. I will be happy to make up the answers for you. I can also cut and paste from previous entries (I’m very talented) so if I say something or use some "scientific jargon" (ooh ahh, how thrilling), please ask me about it. 

6. I often write tongue-in-cheek, which sometimes hurts my cheek but what can you do? Gentle sarcasm, irony, and puns are all acceptable forms of communication. Unfortunately, they don't always translate in writing so please don't be offended - like Planet Earth, I'm "Mostly Harmless" (Douglas Adams). Have a piece of chocolate or a drink instead.

7. I'm sure every cloud in the Atlantic is exciting to some but, unless I'm bored, I'll usually write about those that I think have a chance of developing. 

8. Despite what you may have heard, I am not always right. But then neither is anyone else. Forecasting is complicated. Sometimes the crystal ball gets smudges and you are all out of Windex to clean it and the store is closed. So PLEASE pay attention to the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service and your Emergency Managers - especially when a storm is looming because they have the most up-to-date information!! 

9. I have stopped adding people to the listserve, so if you are still on that I highly recommend going to the website posts (http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com). They are much prettier. I am working towards transitioning to the website only format anyway… as a part of my top-secret grand plan to take over the world (bwa haa haa - evil laughter in case you were wondering). 

10. I confess; I am a twit. I am on twitter (@jyovianstorm). Twitter is cool. Just like bow-ties are cool. (Dr. Who). I will post these updates on Twitter, but I’ll also tweet about storms in other basins so if you want to catch up between updates, that’s the place to lurk.

That’s it for today! All quiet on the Atlantic front for now, so I’ll try and jump back on when there is something out there. Colin better not show up in June though… I have a busy travel schedule! ;-) 

Toodle pip for now!

J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/ 
Twitter @JyovianStorm
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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know. 
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