Friday, July 06, 2018

Natural Disaster Prediction XPRIZE, TS Beryl and the Atlantic Blob: July 5, Update A

Botherations! I knew I should have written about the Natural Disaster Prediction XPRIZE Design Challenge yesterday and now Mama Nature has forced my hand with a pesky storm or two out there (for demonstration purposes). Guess it's time to pour another glass of wine and off we go.

Before we get to our delightful TS Beryl and friend, I have to ask you, my intelligent, witty, beautiful, smart pals, for your help! I want a Natural Disaster Prediction XPRIZE that would greatly reduce loss of life and economic damage from tropical storms (hurricanes, typhoons, cyclones) and earthquakes around the world. Wouldn't it be wonderful if you knew, 2 weeks in advance, the exact(ish) landfall location and intensity of a storm so you have oodles of time to get ready (and I can sit back and relax and eat bonbons all day ;-))? And living in Los Angeles, also on my 'small' wish-list - I'd jolly well like to know when an earthquake is going to happen with enough warning time to get to a safe place. Well at XPRIZE we are working on this and I'd humbly like to request your help.  

You can ALL help in one (or two) of two ways: 
1. Have a cup of tea and then submit a Natural Disaster Prediction XPRIZE prize design - participants can win prizes valued up to $100k (including being flown to LA and XPRIZE HQ and meeting me -- ok, ok, don't let that be a deterrent, I can hide if you are here! ;-)). We have launched a HeroX Visioneers Design Challenge for Natural Disasters, to ask the intelligent people of the world (i.e. YOU) to help us design a prize that will ultimately result in a solution to help all of us who live in tropical storm or earthquake zones (about 80% of the global population)! If you have an idea, please click on the HeroX link above and find out more. If you think you don't know how to design a prize, that's not a problem - you can watch this helpful video: Peter Diamandis' (Founder and CEO of XPRIZE) Master Class on Prize Design. We got to change the world... so I'm not blogging forever! ;-) Deadline to submit is 23 July.
(Image credit: animal-space.net)

2. Have a cup of coffee or glass of wine and share the link to the Natural Disaster Prediction XPRIZE Design Challenge and encourage your friends to enter. If you could email it, tweet it, facebook post-share it, LinkedIn it, pininterest it, youtube it, instagram it, snapchat it, periscope it, vine it, er... and whatever else the cool kids are using these days, that would be magical!

Right, oh yes, the pesky storms and another glass-of-wine-o-clock...

Tropical Storm Beryl
She has such a solid and respectable name, so how could she be anything but? She was named today and is currently at 10.4N, 44W, heading W at a decent 14 mph. She is already a mid-to-strong sized Tropical Storm with winds officially at 65mph (TS range: 39-73mph) and central pressure estimated to be 999mb. However she is a little thing, as you can see in this very cool but rather useless satellite image: 

The forecast is for her to become a hurricane by tomorrow evening, and I think this is quite likely - I think she's almost there because the circulation is pretty good in the lower half of the troposphere, and she already has some circulation in the upper levels of the troposphere - a sign of a hurricane. The track has her moving W and then WNW through the weekend: 
At the moment I think she will stay a little more south than this track is showing because there is a high pressure ridge to her north. We'll see if this changes tomorrow. 

Atlantic Blob
There is another crayon marking on the NHC map:

This blob has some low-level circulation, but not much higher up so he's not yet a Tropical Storm. Worth keeping an eye on as I think he's going to be moving closer to the US east coast, but nothing more than a blob (technical term! ;-)) at the moment. If he does develop, we'll call him Chris shall we? 

More on Beryl tomorrow!

Toodle pip!
J. 

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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms (my storm blog). If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast. This is not an official forecast.
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