Definitely Not the Start of the 2023 Hurricane Season! August 17: Hurricane Hilary, Update A

Hello my friends! I know, I know, this is not the start of the 2023 Hurricane Season! I haven't forgotten you, but I was a bit busy with wotnots and ice cream, so I came up with a cunning plan... 

Yes, I was definitely marching with oodles of ill-deserved confidence... my cunning plan was to retire this year (from the blog, not in general)! I didn't think anyone would notice... after all, the NHC is doing so much better these days (well done, chaps) and even I defer to their track in the last 24 hours of landfall these days. 

But, apparently, Mother Nature had other plans... if I won't go to the hurricanes, they will come to me, even in dry southern California. So, here I am. And here you are. Welcome back! :-) And if this is your first time joining me, there are a few fun and very intelligent and noteworthy pointers and reminders about this blog.

Before that though... please meet Hurricane Hilary, the 6th hurricane in the East Pacific this year...

She is now a major cat 3 hurricane with winds of 125 mph (cat 3 range: 111-129mph), central pressure of 952mb - almost a cat 4 storm. She's at 16.7N, 110 W, heading WNW at 14mph. The current track shows that she will make landfall in northern Baja/southern California over the weekend, with the center passing anywhere in that cone - but she's a big storm so the effects will be felt ahead of her and outside the cone. And as this is desert territory, a bunch of rain could mean some flooding is about to happen (my wellies and umbrella are ready!).  She is expected to make a NW turn tomorrow to stay on that track - that's one thing to watch for tomorrow. 

Her circulation is quite strong throughout the lower atmosphere (the troposphere - I'll explain this jargon tomorrow) and she is a good looking storm with a beautiful, unwavering eye - I agree with the NHC on the strong cat 3, close to cat 4, strength:

We know she is getting stronger because her convection (rainfall) is increasing (strong convection is represented by the more solid and dark red areas in this satellite image): 

Parts of Central America, including Mexico, are already getting a few drops of rain - and some is accompanied by thunder I expect (the red areas).  

The reason she strengthened is because: (1) she is over some very warm water with the sea surface warmer than 28.5 deg C (tropical storms need sea surface temperatures of at least 26 deg C to keep going); (2) the upper ~50-75 m of water under her at the moment is warmer than 26 deg C which means she is churning up warm water to sustain herself; (3) she's in an area of very little wind shear; and, (4) she is in a region of high water vapor. I expect she will get a bit stronger - perhaps reaching a cat 4 soon. 

However, as she moves north and closer to Baja, she should start to slowly weaken (from a strong cat 3/cat 4) because: (1) the sea surface starts to get cooler and drops below 26 deg somewhere near southern-mid Baja (around where she clips the peninsula in the track image above), so she will be churning up cooler water; (2) there is a bit of drier air to her northwest in the lowest level of the atmosphere; and, (3) as she gets closer to land, some of the energy will start to leave her. The one thing I don't see yet is an increase in wind shear and this is one thing I will also be looking for tomorrow. 

That's all on Hilary for today. Meanwhile, as I'm here, what's been happening in the Atlantic? Well, it's been pretty quiet so far - but remember, it can be a quiet season and it only needs one major storm to make it a tough season! The classic example is Hurricane Andrew, the first storm of 1992, a cat 5 that went over the Bahamas and hit Miami in late August of that year. 

So far the Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico has had 4 relatively small (and maybe almost non-existent in some cases) storms: 

TS Arlene - pretty much a non-starter in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico, but it was nice of her to welcome in the start of the Atlantic Hurricane Season on June 1. 

TS Brett - the second storm in June, he turned into a strong Tropical Storm as he passed over the windward islands of the Caribbean and fizzled after that.

TS Cindy - overlapped with Brett, but as a weaker storm, she avoided his Caribbean turf and just enjoyed a few days at the end of June tootling around in the mid-Atlantic.  

Hurricane Don - he was just plain confused. He was chasing his own tail in the mid-Atlantic in July, was officially upgraded from a Tropical Storm to Hurricane for about 12 hours, and that was it. 

There are a few blobs and blobettes out there, in the eastern and mid-Atlantic, that I'll keep an eye on, but that's all for now on the Atlantic. 

Lastly (finally, I hear you say!) here are the rules of the blog, expertly cut and pasted from a previous year (yes, this is old school my peeps!)...

1. These updates are about fun, forecasting, and education... and tropical storms and whatever else pops into my head that may fit those three words (with some imagination and possibly after a lychee martini or two). It is just what I think.

2. I have a British sense of humoUr... you have been warned. There will be random letters in words when you least expect them. But less random than if this was in Welsh. Or Irish (Gaelic). 

3. This is my hobby - sometimes you'll get one update a day, sometime four. If you are really lucky, you won't get any. If you wish to pay me to write, let me know. I know there's an AI device out there that can take over and make this into the masterpiece of writing I can only dream of, but this is a Chat GPT-Free Zone.

4. I hope you like Monty Python, Eddie Izzard, The IT Crowd. And other Funny Stuff.

5. If you have any questions (preferably about tropical storms), please ask. I will be happy to make up the answers for you. I can also continue to cut and paste from previous entries (I’m very talented!) so if I say something or use some "scientific jargon" (always thrilling!), please ask me about it.

6. I often write tongue-in-cheek, which sometimes hurts my cheek but what can you do? Gentle sarcasm, irony, and puns are all perfectly acceptable forms of communication. Unfortunately, they don't always translate in writing so please don't be offended - like Planet Earth, I'm "Mostly Harmless" (Douglas Adams). Have a piece of chocolate or a soothing cup of tea instead.

7. I'm sure every cloud in the Atlantic (or elsewhere in the world) is exciting to some but, unless I'm bored, I'll usually write about those that I think are important.

8. Despite what you may have heard, I am not always right. But then neither is anyone else. Forecasting is complicated. Sometimes the crystal ball gets smudges and you are all out of Windex to clean it and the store is closed. So PLEASE pay attention to the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service and your Emergency Managers - especially when a storm is looming because they have the most up-to-date information!!

9. I confess I used to be a twit - but now I don't know what to call it that doesn't make it sound like a placeholder letter. However, I am on twitter (@jyovianstorm) as it will always be known to me. I will post these updates on Twitter/placeholder letter, but I’ll also tweet about storms in other basins, my job (including live dives exploring the deep sea – ooh, ahh, you never know what you will see!), my movie, other people’s jobs, other people's movies, cool science, brilliant people, goofy things etc. so if you want to catch up between updates, that’s might be a place to lurk (at least for now).

10. I will refer to ice cream, wine, cheese, cups of tea, jaffa cakes, and lychee martinis fairly frequently. To preemptively answer your questions, I do eat and drink other things for a balanced diet. For example, prawn cocktail crisps, fruit & nut chocolate, water, G&Ts.

Sigh. Guess I'll retire next year. ;-) Now, where's that mint choc chip...

Toodle pip!

J. 

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/

Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER:

These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.