tropical storm, and he's getting stronger. We will soon start to see the
next step in his development. I agree with the official forecast some
point tomorrow he will be a cat 1 - there's an eye. The two main reasons
for this are that he will begin traversing warmer waters - of 28-29 degs
C, and he will also be in a region of lower wind shear. With no land to
inhibit his growth, there is nothing that will really stop him growing to
a cat 1.
How much beyond that he grows is still up in the air (all puns always
intentional) ;) The media are talking about the latest forecast worst case
scenario of a cat 4 in the northwestern Caribbean in about 5 days - and
that is fine because their job is to make sure people are prepared for the
worst. That may occur, but it is one of many many possibilities because
his path is still uncertain.
He is moving westward, after moving in a west-northwestward direction
earlier today and is now at about 13N, 49W. The long-term path of this
storm is still questionable, but I agree that he will stay on this general
westward track for at least another day.
That's all for now folks.
J.
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast.
-------------------------------------------
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