Saturday, October 18, 2008

TS Omar: October 17 Update B

I can't help it. I have to say this... there's absolutely NO WAY the storm
I saw in the satellite images at about 4pm this afternoon turned into a
hurricane by 5pm, as said in the advisory issued by the NHC. And if it
did, it miraculously rapidly deteriorated again because it's back to being
a Tropical Storm now (max 65 mph winds)... and all done without changing
the estimated central pressure or gaining any convection/rain. Amazing.

You know it's not really forecasting if you write 'ALTHOUGH OMAR HAS
REGAINED CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE STRENGTH...THIS INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
SHORT-LIVED" if you already know it's not a hurricane...of course it's
going to be short-lived!

And we were in such good agreement with this system until then (relatively
speaking). Oh well.

As I'm here, a quick update - he's weaker, at 32N, 52.5W, and has even
less convection than before. He still has some circulation so if you put
him in some corn fields he wouldn't water them for you, but you could get
some very nice crop circles...

Right, this time I really won't check what's going on... well not until
tomorrow anyway ;)

J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical
storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are
making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management
and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National
Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run
away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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