Tuesday, November 02, 2010

Tropical Storm Tomas: November 2, Update A

Ho ho... back in the country less than a week and I've seen the (current) Governor of Florida twice already. Ok, so he was standing on the street corner, encouraging people to vote today... vote for him, presumably.
Meanwhile, on the nature channel Tropical Storm Tomas is still hanging on out there in the Caribbean. He has slowed down a bit since yesterday, but still continues on a westward track at 8mph. Wind speeds are even lower than yesterday's 45mph... they are 40mph. A big drop, I know. ;-) Central pressure is 1006mb. He's still officially a Tropical Storm, but barely. I must admit that he looks more like a TS today than he did yesterday. There is more convection and the vorticity (circulation) has definitely improved since yesterday. It is quite strong in the lowest half of the troposphere, with a small signal in the upper levels which means that he has room to become a stronger Tropical Storm, and possibly a weak cat 1. He's still in the southern part of the Caribbean where wind shear is a little weaker (compared to the northern part). Unfortunately the server is down so I can't access the pressure fields to see if there is any indication of the track.
He is centered at about 13.7N, 75.1W. I am having a dodgy computer day apparently... I can't see the satellite movies either, which makes it tricky to see the center of circulation. I'll have to go with the official word for now.
Although I don't have my usual (limited) information, there are a few clues that allow us to speculate about tomorrow. He has slowed down. If he continues to move westward, wind shear is low in that direction so we can expect him to intensify. If he moves northwestward and then northward, which is the forecast for tomorrow, then there is a chance that wind shear will inhibit him from intensifying too much. But the forecast calls for him to be a hurricane as he moves north, so I think the computer models are prediciting the wind shear to die away, or not to have an impact. His future intensity depends on wind shear, how fast he moves forward, and how long it takes for him to make that turn northwards. It's all up to atmospheric conditions because the ocean temperatures are pretty consistent where he is, to the west, and to the (immediate) north.  
Tomorrow I'll be looking for that northward turn. At the moment, I think a turn to sleepyland for me is in order. :-)
Toodle pip!
p.s. I got some funny responses to the Dalek. There's nothing wrong with pronouncing it 'Darlik'... makes perfect sense to me. We add all sorts of letters all over the place in England (if you think we're bad you should visit Wales!).  And HM... R2-D2? Oh dear, oh dear, oh dear. I'll have to find you a 2011 calendar of "Sci-Fi Pumpkin Pin-Ups of the 19th Century". Educational AND practical. You'll love it. ;-)
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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