Tropical Storm Tomas: November 3, Update A

Computer glitches were the theme of the day yesterday I think. It seems as though the update didn't get out to the listserve, although it got onto the website so if you really want to read it you can check it out on jyotikastorms.blogspot.com. Nothing much happened yesterday anyway though, so if I were you, I'd cut your losses and save some time by skipping an entry! ;-)
 
Tomas is still a Tropical Storm, and a weak one at that with winds of 45 mph (range: 39-73mph) and central pressure of 1003mb. He made that turn and is now heading NNW at 6mph. He's currently at about 15.4N, 75.2W. There is a fair bit of vorticity throughout the troposphere - from that alone he should be a stronger Tropical Storm or weak cat 1. There is also quite a lot of convection which is spread over a large area of the Caribbean. I think he's stronger than a weak TS and his intensity is being underestimated.
 
The forecast track takes him towards Haiti by Friday, unfortunately. But I don't know if he will be a hurricane as they predict. Wind shear is still strong in the northern Caribbean, which will inhibit him from developing much more. However, the vorticity is strong too, which indicates strengthening to me. Until the vorticity dies down, I expect strengthening.
 
That's all for today. Let's see if this one gets sent out. Ho hum. Computers... can't live with them, can't live without them. (Ancient saying). ;-)
 
Night night!
J. 
 
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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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