Wednesday, June 29, 2011

Tropical Storm Arlene: June 29, Update A

Although officially TS Arlene is a mid-sized tropical storm at the moment with winds of 50mph (TS range: 39-73mph), she looks a lot stronger to me and I would have her pegged as a strong TS, maybe with winds of around 60-65mph, possibly higher.

The circulation has been getting stronger throughout the day, and is very good in the entire lowest half of the troposphere*, with some circulation at higher altitudes as well. In addition to the circulation, the convection has also improved drastically, and parts of Mexico are getting huge dollops of rain with thunder and lightning and all that jazz. Here is a satellite photo of Arlene from about 5.15pm EST.

This is an infrared (IR) image. I don’t have time to explain IR imagery at the moment, but I promise I’ll explain it soon! For now, red is strong convection, with loud thunder, tornadoes etc…. and blue is cloudy but no rain. Everything else in between probably needs at least one umbrella.

Although she’s strong, you can see she is interacting with land, so I don’t think she will strengthen too much more. At the most, she might reach a very weak hurricane, but I’m thinking a strong TS.

*Scientific Jargon Alert:
What do you mean you’ve already forgotten what the ‘troposphere’ is? I covered this about 3 weeks ago! Aren’t you memorizing everything I write?!? Sigh. ;-) Ok, it’s in this one if you can’t recall and haven’t worked out how to operate Google yet… End of Scientific Jargon Alert.

Ok... must run. Cup of tea and glass of wine await (not at the same time!)


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These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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