Monday, May 28, 2012

Tropical Depression Beryl: May 28, Update A

I’d have to say that so far, Beryl has been a well-behaved little storm. She made landfall last night and as of 11 am this morning, as expected, the NHC downgraded her to a Tropical Depression. Her winds are now 30 mph, central pressure is estimated to be 1003mb. She is still bringing some much needed rain to Florida and Georgia. I expect her to continue to decrease in intensity. She is currently centered at 30.8N, 83.1W, heading NNW at a stately 5mph, and is about 10 miles east of Valdosta, GA.

The NHC forecast track shows her turning North and then Northeast tonight, heading towards the Carolinas and then back out into the Atlantic on Weds afternoon, and turning into a Tropical Storm again on Thursday afternoon. One possible scenario that I think might happen is that she will continue inland for a bit longer (or slow down even more whilst over land) and weaken more than they currently expect. If that’s the case, then I’m not sure she will become a Tropical Storm again, although at the moment her circulation is still pretty strong in the lower part of the troposphere.

Right, for now all is good so I’m off to find me some wine (honestly, it’s not my fault… it’s for a good cause… someone’s <something-with-a-zero>th birthday and 5-year-cancer-free party – congratulations K.M.!). J

Happy Memorial Day!
Toodle Pip,

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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