Sunday, October 14, 2012

Tropical Storm Rafael: October 14, Update A

I was reading a book today in which the people have 8 day weeks; the usual Monday-Friday for work, Saturday, Sunday-One and Sunday-Two. I have thought long and hard about this (all of 30 seconds at least) and think it is a genius idea. It would stimulate the economy (increased spending) and improve everyone’s health (more time to relax). ;-)

Tropical Storm Rafael has cleared the Caribbean and is back in the Atlantic at 21.4N, 64.5W, heading NNW at 10mph. He has winds of 65mph which now makes him a mid-sized Tropical Storm. Central pressure is 991mb. These values are from a plane that flew into the system earlier today. I would agree with this intensity because as he is moving away from damping impact of the Leeward Islands, and water temperatures are 29-30deg C, with the upper 100m being warmer than 26 deg C. His circulation is improving and convection is quite strong as you can see in this infra-red satellite image:

I think the official location is about right too, although it looks like he is tracking east of the center of cone forecast track to me (despite his NNW movement). I expect that they will continue to shift the forecast track to the east (away from Bermuda). The forecast says he will be a hurricane by Tuesday morning. I am not convinced of this (yet) because he continues to experience some wind shear and it looks like the shear will get stronger tomorrow. However, he does have those yummy warm waters in his favour, so he may be a very strong TS/minimal cat 1.

Tropical Storm Rafael hardly touched the U.S. Virgin Islands, contrary to a major US news network who said: “Tropical Storm Rafael pummels Virgin Islands, heads toward Bermuda”. Thanks to Tom on St. Thomas for sending that, along with an actual on-the-ground weather update at 2.30pm today: “We have had a few showers but nothing longer than 5 minutes... certainly no cistern filler rains”.  The other Virgin Islands (the British ones) had some squally and thundery weather, but I’m not sure I would use the word ‘pummels’! That is a bit over the top. What would they have said if it was a cat 3? ‘Rafael really really pummels Virgin Islands (we mean it this time, honest) …’?

Time to get ready for Monday, as there is no Sunday-two in place yet. J

Toodle pip!

Blogs archived at
Twitter @JyovianStorm

DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.


No comments: