Hurricane Joaquin: September 30, Update A

Just time for a quick update. It's no surprise that TS Joaquin got stronger as he was already stronger than the official estimate I saw before I got on a plane yesterday. It looks likes the wind shear wasn't enough to keep him in place, and that vorticity signal I saw in the upper troposphere has also intensified which makes him a hurricane.

He is currently centered at 24.9N, 72.2W, moving SW at 6mph. Winds are 75mph, central pressure is 971mb. At 75mph, he is barely a cat 1 storm (range: 74-95mph), but I think this is still an underestimate, especially if that is his central pressure. That is quite low, which means that the winds will 'rush' in faster. The other indication that this is low is the vorticity (circulation) in the upper half of the troposphere, which is much stronger and better developed today than it was yesterday. Here's the 500mb level - which is the middle of the troposphere:

You can see a lovely red distinct splodge (technical term ;-)) at that level. Looking even higher, up to 200mb (about 10km above the earth's surface):

The 'red splodge' at those heights is now distinct from that larger red region to the northwest (a low pressure region), so it is really connected to this storm and not that system. This is what I would see with a hurricane. 

He is beginning to develop into a good looking storm with those lovely outflow bands, which you can begin to see in the visible imagery: 

I can't be sure that he had an eye overnight or not from this imagery. If he did, then his winds were closer to 90mph. I would place him as a storm with winds around 85mph at the moment. 

Fortunately the strong convection is not as spread out as the visible imagery would suggest, with those outer bands to the north being just clouds (blue in the infrared imagery):

The Bahamas are getting some rain, but the worst weather is offshore. Unfortunately, Joaquin will stay in that area for a while, so it will bring a lot of rain to the islands so they will have a rough few days. Also, the winds will be pushing water onto the northern sides of the islands, so expect storm surge! 

I'll try and pop back later today and check in on him.

Adieu,

J. 

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm
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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

Tropical Storm Joaquin: September 29, Update A

Another travel day, another quick blog written from LAX airport. :-) Did you catch the water on Mars news yesterday? How exciting. And in today's news, a big day at XPRIZE (see the end of the post for that). But first... 

Tropical Storm Joaquin was named yesterday and is currently at 26.6N, 70.6W, heading W at a very sedate 5 mph. His winds are officially 40mph, and central pressure is 1006mb,which makes him a really weak storm (TS range: 39-73mph). I think this is a bit of an underestimate and he slightly stronger - he has exceedingly good circulation in the lower half of the troposphere, with a small vorticity (circulation) signal in the upper troposphere (because he is interacting with a low pressure system up there). I'd place him at 50-60mph at least! He is a decent looking Tropical Storm, as you can see in the visible satellite imagery:

He also has quite a lot of convective activity as you can see in the infrared satellite image - I hope the Turks and Caicos folks had their wellies dusted! 

The major thing keeping him in check is wind shear, which is around 20-30 knots. It looks like he may move into a region of stronger wind shear, so I don't think he'll get much stronger (at the moment anyway). I'll be back tomorrow. 

Meanwhile at XPRIZE: today (and tomorrow) is the launch of the Carbon XPRIZE! $20 million for a bright, innovative team who can turn CO2 into a valuable product... more details are here: carbon.xprize.org.

Ok, must run, but more from the east coast of the US! 
Toodles,
J. 

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm
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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

Tropical Depression Ida, the Caribbean Blob, and the Atlantic Blobette: September 26, Update A

Just popping in to check on how Ida and her friends are doing in the Atlantic and Caribbean. I see that she's still trying her best to hang on, but is now a Tropical Depression. 

Officially her winds are 35mph, central pressure is 1006mb. She does still have a closed circulation in the lower half of the troposphere, but she is not as well developed in the middle and upper parts of the troposphere, so a Tropical Depression seems about right to me. You can see her location and the closed circulation in the visible satellite imagery:

She is centered at around 24.3N, 47.4W, and is heading WNW at 5mph. You can also see that her convection is off to the east of the center and is struggling to get a foothold (it's been on a pattern of getting stronger/weaker/stronger/weaker):

It's to one side because of wind shear of course, and it's a bit wimpy because there is a spectacular amount of dry air all around her, as you see in this lovely water vapor imagery of the Atlantic:

So even if the wind shear drops (which it is expected to do), the dry air will stop her from growing too much. In fact, I think this will be my last update on Ida (unless something unexpected happens - and really, how often does that happen? ;-)).

Now, a quick note about a Caribbean Blob and it's friend, the Atlantic Blobette. You can see them in the water vapor satellite image above. 

One is in the region of Nicaragua, with quite a lot of convection just off the coast there, in the western Caribbean. The reason for the strong convection is because the sea surface water is over 30 deg C (phew... definitely balmy!), and the upper 100 - 150m of the water column is warmer than 26 deg C. We always see a lot of convection in this area for this reason. There is some circulation in the lower half of the troposphere, but it is interacting with land which is inhibiting the development of this system. It does look like it will move over water though (it's moving very slowly north-eastward) and away from land, which will give it a chance to get a bit stronger.

The second one is just north of the Bahamas. This one doesn't have much convection at the moment but again, there is weak circulation in the lower parts of the troposphere. 

The next name up is Joaquin. 

I'll keep an eye on both of these and if they look like they are going to misbehave, I'll be back. 

Ciao for now!
J. 

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm
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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

Tropical Storm Ida: September 22, Update A

Time for a quick update. 

Tropical Storm Ida is at 20.9N, 46.8W, and is drifting ESE at a whopping 2mph! (i.e. she's stationary). She's been hovering over the same place for a few hours and is actually showing signs of weakening now, and you can see that the circulation (vorticity) in the middle troposphere is no longer a well formed as it was yesterday:

No circular red blob anymore at the 500mb level. 

There are a couple of reasons for this but the primary one is that there is actually quite strong wind shear today, with the shear being around 20-40 knots from the northwest. Her official wind speed is currently 40mph (central pressure 1005mb). So, with such strong wind shear we would expect the convection to be 'pushed off' to one side of the center, and sure enough, it is trailing spectacularly off to the east: 

If you are paying attention (like Mitch R.), you may have noticed a swirly-gig to the west of Ida, between Puerto Rico and Bermuda. This was ordered especially for Steve B. who is sailing this week from PR to Bermuda. ;-) (sorry Steve!). It is even more spectacular in the water vapor satellite imagery:

Although this blob has some circulation, it is not very well organized as you can see from the 500mb vorticity map above and more importantly, there is absolutely no circulation in the lower troposphere:

So I wouldn't worry too much about this one. 

Alas, that's all I have time for today. I'll try and get back tomorrow, but if not, then the following day!

Toodle pip,
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

Tropical Storm Ida: September 21, Update A

Distressingly little time for sloth or idleness today, alas! TS Ida has slowed down, and is now officially at 21.7N, 49.5W, moving NNW at 5mph. It is a bit difficult to see her center at the moment because it's night time (obviously! ;-)), and also because she appears to be a a bit disheveled. I think the center may be slightly to the south and east of the official location.

The NHC did increase her wind speed today, but have brought it back down to a very weak 45mph (Tropical Storm range: 39-73mph). I continue to think this is a bit of an underestimate (British understatement strikes again). There are a few clues that lead me to believe she is stronger than they think:

1. The vorticity (circulation) is stronger in the lower half of the troposphere than it was yesterday. For example... 

Yesterday's 500mb vorticity field: 

Today's 500mb vorticity field: 

See how much better formed (rounder and redder) she is? You too can look at the evolution of the circulation if you go to the University of Wisconsin page - at the top left are buttons that allow you to move back in time in 3 hour increments. (By the way, if you have forgotten how to get to this page, check out the <Science Alert!> here).

2. They claim strong wind shear. The wind shear is somewhere between 10-20 knots. Her winds are 45mph, which translates to about 40 knots. If this is really her wind speed, this means she is experiencing wind shear that is half as strong as she is. That would be really strong relatively speaking and she should have fallen to bits already!  

3. Oh, and then there's the convective activity. Does this really look like a system that is barely eking a living as a Tropical Storm to you? 

 

And looking at her on the larger Atlantic stage:

Yes, ladies and gentlemen, that big red blob that could swallow most of Florida is, supposedly, a very very weak Tropical Storm. Really?

Huh. 

So, to sum up: I agree with the NHC that she's slowed down and her name is still Ida. 

Until tomorrow! 

J. 

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm
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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

Tropical Storm Ida: September 20, Update A

A little late on the update alas, but I travelled Back From The Future today and am still recovering. The internet was a bit dodgy there, but there were flying cars, robots that talk, no illness, and lots of flowers and sequins and wine. :-)

Meanwhile, in the present, Tropical Storm Ida is still lurking out there at 18.9N, 47.0W, and currently heading NW at a very respectable 14mph. At first glance it looks like someone thought that they would use a dartboard to predict her track this week: 

But this drunken game of darts is actually somewhat plausible (for tomorrow at least - beyond that I don't know yet). There is a very good possibility that she will stall because of the surrounding atmospheric pressure fields.  

<Science Alert!> Why would a storm stall? You have heard of atmospheric high pressure and low pressure, right?  Imagine them as hills and valleys in the atmosphere, except made of air. Now imagine the storm is a ball on this undulating field. If the path ahead is low pressure, it's like a downhill gradient and the ball will happily keep on rolling forward. If the path in front is high pressure, it's an uphill gradient and the ball (storm) will slow down, or maybe move in a different direction until it finds an easier path downhill. But if the ball gets stuck in a 'dip', it is surrounded by high pressure on all sides, and it becomes difficult for the storm to move in any direction, so it will stop where it is until the pressure fields around it change (which they eventually will do). Of course, as pressure fields change, the longer range track forecast will also change, even though the storm may not have moved far. So not only do forecasters need to predict the track of the storm, by they need to predict the entire surrounding pressure field and how it will change before the storm moves again and that's where computer models really kick in. <End Science Alert!>

Ida should begin to slow down in forward speed soon because of the high pressure she is about to run into. It looks like the computer models are forecasting that this surrounding high pressure won't move for the next few days. I can see this possibility of stalling in the pressure data for tomorrow evening, but I don't have the data to see much beyond that (alas). If she does move after that, at the moment it looks (to me) like she will stay to the east of Bermuda.

By the way, if you happen to be sailing from the Caribbean to Bermuda this week, although she is quite far from you, you may have a slightly bumpy ride in a few days - especially if she stalls for a long time and gets stronger. 

Movie trivia #1: Marty McFly travelled from 1985 back 30 years to 1955 in the first Back To The Future movie. We are now 30 years in the future from 1985. #FeelingOldYet? ;-) 

Ida is still officially a relatively weak Tropical Storm with winds of 45mph, and a central pressure of 1005mb. I think this is too weak. I think she has winds closer to 60-65mph. She has strong circulation in the lower half of the troposphere, and in the last few hours the convection near her center has improved quite considerably: 

She isn't quite a hurricane yet because there still isn't a good circulation signal in the upper troposphere, but there isn't much to inhibit her from developing - wind shear is low, the sea surface temperatures are over 28 deg C with the upper 75m of the water column being warmer than 26 deg C, and she is moving into areas of higher water vapor in the atmosphere as you can see in this water vapour satellite movie: 

(She is the blob that has the blue bit in the middle).

I think she will continue to intensify for now. What will be interesting to see is how much she will grow once she stalls - if she does stay in the same place for a few days as forecast, she will begin to cool the water under her and may actually end up inhibiting her own growth! I'm staying in the same space/time zone this week (for a change), so I'll be watching with great interest. 

Movie trivia #2: October 21, 2015 is the date that Marty, Doc Brown, and Jennifer Parker travel to at the start of Back To The Future II. #FontOfUselessInformation #YouAreAGeekNowToo ;-) 

Night night for now!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm
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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

Tropical Depression Deep-Space Nine, the Atlantic Blob and Blobette: September 18, Update A

Thanks for all your replies on your favourite Star Trek show! Although I didn't hear from anyone who loved the Star Trek series 'Enterprise'. (just as well really, I never could get past the opening song...!)

So, we have a few blobs and blobettes bouncing around out there in the Atlantic I see. 

Tropical Depression Deep-Space Nine - although it looks like she's heading for the general vicinity of Bermuda, I am not sure she will get that far in any meaningful manner. There hasn't been much change in this one over the last couple of days. She still only has circulation in the very lowest levels of the troposphere and nothing much in the middle or upper troposphere. Also, her convection has pretty much vanished:

By the time she gets anywhere near Bermuda, I think she'll just be a lovely breeze. I probably won't write anything else on her unless she gets stronger. 

Atlantic Blob - The force is strong with this one. I would already have classified it as a Tropical Depression, if not a Tropical Storm actually:

There is good circulation in the lower half of the troposphere, and I see a signal in the upper troposphere. It looks like the center is somewhere around 13N, 36W and it's generally moving WNW. 

The convection is not very well organized at the moment...

This system has some dry air in front of it, which is perhaps the only thing that is stopping it from already being fully formed. On the other hand, wind shear is low and sea surface temperatures are over 26 deg C so if the convection does improve and that upper troposphere vorticity signal continues, then we may eventually have a hurricane. 

Atlantic Blobette  - there is another blobette off the coast of east Florida. If you look at the vorticity maps, this one is actually more of a front than a tropical system. Here is the map from the middle level of the troposphere (500mb):

It clearly shows the 'front' over Florida and the eastern US seaboard. It also shows Tropical Depression Deep-Space Nine (the 'L'), and the clear and stronger vorticity signal of the Atlantic Blob that may already be a Tropical Storm to the southeast of the 'L'.

That's all for now. I have to run off to a cool meeting - I'm in the heart of Silicon Valley this week, learning about the latest and greatest in robotics, Artificial Intelligence, 3D printing, virtual reality, and all that cool stuff of the near-future. Lots of advancements in many areas - from medicine to manufacturing, from transportation to telecommunications. So, why aren't we moving ahead at the same pace in ocean sensing and tropical storm forecasting? Just wondering... 

Toodles,
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm
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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

Tropical Depression Deep-Space Nine and an Atlantic Blob: September 16, Update A

It looks like Tropical Depression Deep-Space Nine is out there with a little Blob right on her heels! So much for a quiet season. Sigh. Better stock up with more ice cream and yet another case of wine. :-) 

<Geek Alert!> Putting aside the Original Star Trek, I think it is important to note that Deep-Space Nine was my favourite Star Trek show. :-) What is YOUR Star Trek? <End Geek Alert!>

Tropical Depression Deep-Space Nine is currently centered at around 15N, 43.1W and heading NNW at 8mph, which should take her into the Atlantic, maybe in the general Bermuda direction (too soon to say) and well away from the Caribbean. You can see the center in the visible satellite image:

Her winds are around 30mph (central pressure 1010mb) and she does have some areas of strong convection (red and dark orange part in the infrared satellite image): 

But I would agree with the NHC and say that she is currently a Tropical Depression, not yet a Tropical Storm because although she has strong circulation (vorticity) in the lower half of the troposphere, there is very little in the middle and upper levels. For a Tropical Storm I would expect to see a stronger vorticity signal in the middle troposphere. The current forecast is that she will vanish in the Atlantic (near the Bermuda Triangle? da-da-da = dramatic music ;-)). 

And as for the Atlantic Blob, he is at around 10.5N, 28.5W and is generally heading WNW. He looks like he is in even worse shape than TD Deep-Space Nine:

But interestingly, he has a better circulation (vorticity) signal in the lower and middle troposphere than TD DS9. His convection is poor at the moment because he is moving through the region of dry and dusty Saharan Air Layer. 

I'll be back with an update on both of these tomorrow. 

(Oh, and I never could get past the opening music/song for Star Trek Enterprise...).

Ciao,
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm
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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

Tropical Storm Henri: September 10, Update A

I was on the Planet DragonCon last weekend and decided that Tropical Storm Grace would gracefully go away without being too much of a bother, and lo and behold, she did. Funny how that works. ;-) 

And yesterday, of course, one was too busy celebrating the long long reign of The Queen (what else would I be doing?) so I missed the start of Tropical Storm Henri, who I see may be planning on popping over to the UK to say congratulations in person ;-) 

He doesn't really look like much. His wind speed is 40mph, with a central pressure of around 1008mb. Although he has some circulation, strong wind shear has pushed the convection all to the north and east of the center, which is around 34.8N, 60.7W:

He's won't be causing too much of a problem unless you are sailing across the Atlantic, in which case you may have a slightly bumpy ride! I probably won't say anymore on Henri unless he does something unexpected. 

The next one will be Ida, so until then mes amis,

a bientôt,

J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm
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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

Tropical Storm Fred and the Impressive Pacific: September 1, Update A

Tropical Storm lovely Fred is still hanging out in the middle of the Atlantic. Currently he's at around 19.4N, 29.1W, heading WNW at 13mph. He is a fairly small Tropical Storm, with winds estimated to be 50mph and central pressure estimated to be 1003mb. 

I would agree with keeping his Tropical Storm status because the circulation is pretty strong in the lower half of the troposphere. There is not signal in the upper troposphere, so he is definitely not any stronger than a Tropical Storm. 

I also agree in keeping him as a weak Tropical Storm (range: 39-73mph) because his convection is pretty poor:

There are no very strong thunderstorms left (no dark red areas now), and it looks like a lot of his convection is just cloud cover (those 50 shades of lighter grey and blue). As I said yesterday, this is because he ran smack dab into the the Saharan Air Layer:

There are a couple of other things that will keep his intensity down. He is over sea surface water of 26-27 deg C, which is enough to sustain him but not let him grow (only the upper ~25-40m of the water column is warmer than 26 deg C). Also, he is about to enter an area of stronger wind shear, so we may see him get weaker tomorrow. The NHC have him down to a Tropical Depression on Thursday. Seems like a good plan to me. 

Meanwhile... over in the Pacific, a lost Van Gogh has been discovered! And what a magnificent one it is too! I showed the water vapor image of the central Pacific yesterday, but here is the infrared satellite image of the eastern and central Pacific:

We have a full hand! Typhoon Kilo (formerly a hurricane) on the left, Hurricane Jimena is the good looking one in the lower center, Tropical Storm Ignacio is just north of Hawaii, and Tropical Depression 14 as the red blob to the right. Rather Impressive, hey?

And on that note, I shall say Adieu! (until tomorrow)
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm
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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

Tropical Storm Fred: August 31, Update A

I watched the end of Erika... she didn't really reform, although it looks like Florida got a bit of rain and stuff. I also watched Tropical Storm Fred develop into a hurricane pretty much over the Cape Verde Islands in the far eastern Atlantic. I agree with the NHC in their assessment of him yesterday as they took him up to a cat 1 hurricane, and I agree with their current analysis of downgrading him to a Tropical Storm.

He is currently at around 18N, 25.4 W, heading generally NW at 12mph:

You can see his center of circulation a few hours ago and the lack of circulation now. His convection also took a hit, as you can see in the latest IR satellite images:

He still has strong circulation in the lower half of the troposphere, but poor 'Hurricane' Fred doesn't have too much of a chance really at the moment for a couple of reasons:

First, he is heading directly into a rather large area of dry and dusty Saharan Air Layer (the yellow and orange area over the Atlantic): 

This is drying him up like a luscious grape in a desert. 

Second, his name is Fred. Now, no offense to the tougher Freds around the world, but all the Freds I know of are lovely, harmless, mostly huggable beings that make me smile. When I lived in Florida, I even took to naming the black snake that lived at the bottom of my staircase 'Fred' after one of the Weasley twins in Harry Potter so that I could summon up enough courage to walk past him with a simple 'Good Morning Fred'. So how could Tropical Storm Fred cause too much harm, hey? ;-) (I'll still be keeping an eye on him though, of course - especially with that circulation). 

And that's all for today my friends! 
Ciao,
J.

p.s. We're not in Hawaii anymore, but I believe surfs up everywhere... 

(Hurricanes Kilo, Ignacio, and Jimena).

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm
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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.