Tropical Storm Joaquin was named yesterday and is currently at 26.6N, 70.6W, heading W at a very sedate 5 mph. His winds are officially 40mph, and central pressure is 1006mb,which makes him a really weak storm (TS range: 39-73mph). I think this is a bit of an underestimate and he slightly stronger - he has exceedingly good circulation in the lower half of the troposphere, with a small vorticity (circulation) signal in the upper troposphere (because he is interacting with a low pressure system up there). I'd place him at 50-60mph at least! He is a decent looking Tropical Storm, as you can see in the visible satellite imagery:
He also has quite a lot of convective activity as you can see in the infrared satellite image - I hope the Turks and Caicos folks had their wellies dusted!
The major thing keeping him in check is wind shear, which is around 20-30 knots. It looks like he may move into a region of stronger wind shear, so I don't think he'll get much stronger (at the moment anyway). I'll be back tomorrow.
Meanwhile at XPRIZE: today (and tomorrow) is the launch of the Carbon XPRIZE! $20 million for a bright, innovative team who can turn CO2 into a valuable product... more details are here: carbon.xprize.org.
Ok, must run, but more from the east coast of the US!
Toodles,
J.
Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment