Wednesday, September 28, 2016

Atlantic Blob: September 27, Update A

I know, I know, I missed a couple - Karl and Lisa. Karl didn't look like he was going to amount to too much, although it did get a little breezy on Bermuda. And Lisa was just a little practice run really, you know, to keep people busy.  I was traveling and doing that work thing that keeps insisting on popping up every week! ;-) Alas, this is yet another very busy week for me, so these will be super short updates (thank goodness I hear you say!... that'll save you time so you can go and make another cuppa tea. ;-))

There is a Blob in the Atlantic, heading towards the Leeward Islands of the Caribbean... it looks like it is definitely a Tropical Storm to me, and possibly close to being a hurricane, although it hasn't yet been named. It will be TS Matthew soon though. There is circulation is  at all levels of the troposphere (which is why I think it is close to hurricane strength), and it is very strong in the lower levels. The piece that make me think he isn't all quite there yet is the convection, which is not as well organized:
Waters are warm, which will allow it to improve in appearance. However, there is some wind shear ahead of him, which will inhibit him. I think he will be a mid-to-strong Tropical Storm as he crosses the islands. 

Get your wellies out! and of course, stay safe! 

Ciao for now,

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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