Saturday, September 03, 2016

Hurricane Lester, Post-Tropical Storm Hermine, and Tropical Storm Gaston: September 3, Update A

Just time for a quick update as there is geekery to be seen! 

Hurricane Lester - Pacific
He is passing Hawaii now and although his official winds are 85mph, central pressure 985mb, which makes him a mid-sized cat 1 storm (cat 1 range: 74-95mph), I think he is weaker. He no longer has a eye, so I agree that his wind speed is less than 90 mph, but his convection has deteriorated quite a lot:

He no longer has vorticity (circulation) in the upper troposphere either, which means he really isn't a hurricane. I would estimate his winds to be around 60-65mph. This decreases in his wind speed and structure is because of that wind shear I mentioned last time. 

The good news for the Hawaiian islands is that although the surf may be high, he is not actually going to impact them directly. So hopefully not too much rain either. 

This will be my last post on Lester!

Post-Tropical Storm Hermine
She is now in the Atlantic heading generally along the eastern seaboard, towards Canada, but looks like she may fizzle out before getting there:

The good news is that there is not a lot of convection left in her...

She's the mass of blue with a touch of yellow that's in the Atlantic just off New England. This means she won't bring too much rain. However, there will be a storm surge as she moves past. You can look at the water levels along the coast on the Tidesonline website that I have linked to in the previous two posts. At the moment places like Ocean City, MD are running about 2ft above normal. 

Currently her winds are 70mph, central pressure is 997mb, so she is the equivalent of a strong tropical storm, however she is 'Post-Tropical' because some of her energy is no longer from the same place that tropical storms get their energy, but rather because she is partly a front - like the winter storms you all get up there. She is currently at 36.2N, 73.3W, heading ENE at 12mph.

I will probably not post on Hermine again as she will continue to get weaker. Just watch out for that storm surge!

Tropical Storm Gaston
He zipped by the Azores, and again, fortunately he was more of a wind event than a thundery downpour event, so a nice breezy day out there, with surf!

And so, this ends my posting on Gaston too. 

Phew, what a week! Are we there yet? :-) 

Alas, not! I am watching that Atlantic Blob that is heading towards the Caribbean - a lot of rainy weather, and some circulation in the lower half of the troposphere, but he is still developing. I'll keep an eye on it as much as I can from this planet. Next name is Ian.  

Toodle Pip for now!!

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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