Friday, June 26, 2009

A Caribbean Blob: June 26 Update A

There's a blob hanging out in the Caribbean today. In case you couldn't
tell from the subject of this post.

It's mostly a lot of convection (rain & thunderstorms) with a teensy
weensy bit of circulation. It's not yet officially been classified as a
Tropical Depression, just an "invest" (which, in case you've forgotten,
is the wonderfully creative name for a system under "investigation"
<insert your oohs and aahs here>).

The main convective activity is over water near the Honduras/Nicaragua
border and northwards to the Cayman Islands/Cuba, but the circulation is
west of the convection and just north of Honduras. Water temperatures
are on the warm side at 29-31 deg C but I'm not sure how much this will
develop before it gets to the Yucatan because there is some nice wind
shear (which is why the convection and circulation aren't in the same

The NHC forecast takes it over the Yucatan tomorrow and then out into
the southern Gulf by Sunday, and that's when they think this will
develop (if at all). But it has to cross the Yucatan landmass first, so
we'll see.

We almost made it through June without a tropical blip. Oh well.

Adieu for now,
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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