As expected, he's a cat 1 hurricane, with winds of about 85-90 mph (cat 1: 74-95mph), central pressure 962mb, located somewhere around 24.5N, 96.2W. He's approaching the Mexican coastline (with outer bands over southern Texas) and will make landfall overnight. I don't think he'll become a cat 2, as it looks like he is beginning to weaken as he interacts with land - the convective activity is decreasing in the outer bands. He is tracking north of the current official forecast (and barely within the cone), which takes him closer to Texas, but I think it's still going to be a Mexico landfall. Hopefully the impact will be minimal!
I know, I said today's entry would be long and boring. Surprise! It's short and boring instead. ;-) That's because I fell asleep on the job! But he's moving along more-or-less as forecast since yesterday, so nothing to add really.
Until tomorrow amigos,
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
Wednesday, June 30, 2010
Tuesday, June 29, 2010
Tropical Storm Alex: June 29, Update A
Just a quick note... Tropical Storm Alex is currently centered somewhere around 21.7N, 91.9W with winds near 70mph, making him a strong Tropical Storm. Central pressure is 984mb, moving NNW at 8mph. He'll become a hurricane soon (cat 1: 74-95mph). He slowed down yesterday, which always makes things (track and intensity forecasting) tricky - I'll go into why at a later date. It still looks like a Mexico landfall, with a small chance of southern Texas. I was wrong about the southern track, alas, but correct about the slower increase in intensity. The circulation is pretty good throughout the troposphere, which means that he will intensify further. Bother.
His circulation is now strong again throughout the troposphere (it weakened a little yesterday), and there is low wind shear. Because he took a more northerly track, he is over warm and slightly deeper warm water. All conditions point to intensification.
I don't have time to look at all the data or write more today. Tomorrow I'll have oodles of time though, so be prepared for a long and boring entry! ;-)
Toodle pip,
J.
p.s. congratulations to C.H. (who helps me maintain the web blog) and his wife on the birth of his daughter yesterday! :-)
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
His circulation is now strong again throughout the troposphere (it weakened a little yesterday), and there is low wind shear. Because he took a more northerly track, he is over warm and slightly deeper warm water. All conditions point to intensification.
I don't have time to look at all the data or write more today. Tomorrow I'll have oodles of time though, so be prepared for a long and boring entry! ;-)
Toodle pip,
J.
p.s. congratulations to C.H. (who helps me maintain the web blog) and his wife on the birth of his daughter yesterday! :-)
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
Sunday, June 27, 2010
Tropical Storm Alex: June 27, Update A
I made the mistake of watching some US tv news about tropical storms. Oh dear. "Tropical Storm Alex MAY be weakening over land"? OF COURSE it's weakening! Sigh. Why do they have to be so unecessarily alarmist? Doesn't everyone have enough to worry about? (rhetorical questions, no need to reply! :-)). Time for a calming cup of tea!
TS Alex made landfall yesterday in Belize, between 7 and 8pm (CDT) with winds near 65mph (TS range: 39-73 mph). A fairly strong Tropical Storm. He is now moving across the Yucatan Peninsula in a WNW direction at 10mph, and will re-emerge into the south-western Gulf later today. Currently he is centered at around 18.4N, 89.9W over Mexico, with maximum sustained wind speeds of 40mph... which means that he may not actually be Tropical Storm anymore as the demarkation is 39mph. I expect he will be downgraded to a Tropical Depression in the next update, as also previously forecast by the NHC. Despite the low wind speed, he still has very good circulation (vorticity) in the entire troposphere which is a little troublesome.
Now, the question is what will happen when he emerges into the Gulf of Mexico. The track takes him WNW towards Mexico. I agree with a Mexico landfall, but maybe not so far north as the current center of cone of uncertainty suggests. There's a chance he'll stay south (also within the cone). But that's a few days away, so things could change.
And the intensity in the Gulf? Here we have a battle between the ocean and atmosphere. How fun! :-) Atmospheric conditions are primed for strengthening of a storm (weak wind shear, strong circulation/vorticity). The forecast makes him a Tropical Storm again overnight tonight (1AM Monday), and a Hurricane tomorrow night (by 1AM Tuesday), with the possibility of a Cat 2 or 3 by Thursday - a fairly rapid intensification. However, ocean conditions are not really primed for a big storm... although the surface water temperature is warm at 30 deg C, the warm water is very shallow - waters warmer than 26.5 deg C don't extend much below 25 - 50m (because it is going over the shallow Bay of Campeche shelf - like the West Florida Shelf). My assessment is that it will intensify back to a Tropical Storm and there is a possibility that it will become a hurricane, but maybe not as rapidly as the current forecast suggests. I think it unlikely that he will be a Cat 3 before he makes landfall.
I'll try and check in later, once he's over water. I don't have much time and won't be in front of a computer for most of Monday/Tuesday (because life gets in the way at the most inconvenient moments! ;-)). Luckily Alex is pretty well behaved, and unless you are in Mexico or southern Texas, no need to overly worry about this one.
Must run! Ciao for now,
J.
p.s. Oil & Storms:
There are a number places out there with information about oil spill and tropical storms that you should check out if you haven't already (e.g. NOAA's fact sheet:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/hurricanes_oil_factsheet.pdf). Thanks to all who sent in websites - you guys are great! :-) I'll continue to answer questions because I was asked for my wonderfully humble, scientific and humourous opinion (after people had read what's out there). (Yes, I'm still *quite* modest). ;-)
Also, thanks to J.D. (and someone else, whose email I've misplaced - sorry!) for sending me 'information' on the "Worst Case Scenario": http://xkcd.com/748/ ;-). I'm sure the movie will be out next summer!
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
TS Alex made landfall yesterday in Belize, between 7 and 8pm (CDT) with winds near 65mph (TS range: 39-73 mph). A fairly strong Tropical Storm. He is now moving across the Yucatan Peninsula in a WNW direction at 10mph, and will re-emerge into the south-western Gulf later today. Currently he is centered at around 18.4N, 89.9W over Mexico, with maximum sustained wind speeds of 40mph... which means that he may not actually be Tropical Storm anymore as the demarkation is 39mph. I expect he will be downgraded to a Tropical Depression in the next update, as also previously forecast by the NHC. Despite the low wind speed, he still has very good circulation (vorticity) in the entire troposphere which is a little troublesome.
Now, the question is what will happen when he emerges into the Gulf of Mexico. The track takes him WNW towards Mexico. I agree with a Mexico landfall, but maybe not so far north as the current center of cone of uncertainty suggests. There's a chance he'll stay south (also within the cone). But that's a few days away, so things could change.
And the intensity in the Gulf? Here we have a battle between the ocean and atmosphere. How fun! :-) Atmospheric conditions are primed for strengthening of a storm (weak wind shear, strong circulation/vorticity). The forecast makes him a Tropical Storm again overnight tonight (1AM Monday), and a Hurricane tomorrow night (by 1AM Tuesday), with the possibility of a Cat 2 or 3 by Thursday - a fairly rapid intensification. However, ocean conditions are not really primed for a big storm... although the surface water temperature is warm at 30 deg C, the warm water is very shallow - waters warmer than 26.5 deg C don't extend much below 25 - 50m (because it is going over the shallow Bay of Campeche shelf - like the West Florida Shelf). My assessment is that it will intensify back to a Tropical Storm and there is a possibility that it will become a hurricane, but maybe not as rapidly as the current forecast suggests. I think it unlikely that he will be a Cat 3 before he makes landfall.
I'll try and check in later, once he's over water. I don't have much time and won't be in front of a computer for most of Monday/Tuesday (because life gets in the way at the most inconvenient moments! ;-)). Luckily Alex is pretty well behaved, and unless you are in Mexico or southern Texas, no need to overly worry about this one.
Must run! Ciao for now,
J.
p.s. Oil & Storms:
There are a number places out there with information about oil spill and tropical storms that you should check out if you haven't already (e.g. NOAA's fact sheet:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/hurricanes_oil_factsheet.pdf). Thanks to all who sent in websites - you guys are great! :-) I'll continue to answer questions because I was asked for my wonderfully humble, scientific and humourous opinion (after people had read what's out there). (Yes, I'm still *quite* modest). ;-)
Also, thanks to J.D. (and someone else, whose email I've misplaced - sorry!) for sending me 'information' on the "Worst Case Scenario": http://xkcd.com/748/ ;-). I'm sure the movie will be out next summer!
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
Saturday, June 26, 2010
TD1: June 26, Update A
Formerly known as the Caribbean Blob, this is now officially a weak Tropical Depression which means it has closed circulation and winds of under 39 mph. It is moving WNW at 9mph, with 1004mb central pressure. It's just north of Honduras, centered at 16.7N, 84.4W, and is, indeed, heading for the Yucatan Peninsula where it will make landfall tonight. The NHC think it will reach Tropical Storm strength before then, and retain that intensity as it crosses the landmass and into the Gulf. I have no doubt it will reach Tropical Storm strength (Alex), but I don't think it will survive the crossing so easily. It may even become a weak hurricane before getting to the Yucatan because it is over warm water (26.5 deg C in the upper 80-100m), but on the other hand, it is interacting with the central American landmass to the south, which may inhibit that development.
That's all I have time for on this for now! I'll check in once it's got to the Yucatan Peninsula.
Toodle pip!
J.
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
That's all I have time for on this for now! I'll check in once it's got to the Yucatan Peninsula.
Toodle pip!
J.
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
Friday, June 25, 2010
Caribbean Blob: June 25 Update A
I'm a tad busy the next few days, so this is not a good time for a blob to even think about developing! Huh. I'll have a word with Mother Nature and see if I can suspend activity for a week or two. ;-)
I (and others) have been watching this blob over the last few days as it slowly moved across the Caribbean, dumping a bit of rain on assorted islands. It is currently centered somewhere around 16N, 80W, between the tip of Honduras/Nicaragua and Jamaica.
There has been a lot of convection with this system for many days. This is to be expected. The sea surface temperatures in the Caribbean are over 30 deg C (although the eastern Caribbean has dropped by a whopping 1 deg C over the last few days because the blob has cooled things down a little). In addition to warm surface waters, it is now over some very deep warm water -the deepest there is actually. Temperatures are above 26.5 deg C in the upper 125-150m of the water column. If this had been a better developed system, this is the location it would have bloomed into a cat 5! But fortunately for us all, the poor little thing is still struggling to develop ... and in the meantime, it continues to rain and remove some of the heat from the ocean. Yay!
Since the day before yesterday, the lowest levels of the troposphere** (woo hoo...science alert - see below :-)) have begun to show some signs of improved circulation. It's still quite disorganized though. There is some wind shear. The NHC (National Hurricane Center) have been saying since yesterday that the shear will decrease by tomorrow so the system has a high chance of developing. This is possible, but I'm not 100% convinced the shear drop will be enough.
**Troposphere: this is the name of the lowest level of our atmosphere. It extends up to about 8km height in the polar regions, and 15-16 km in parts of the tropics. In the troposphere, the higher up you go, the colder the temperature gets (e.g. tops of mountains). The next layer up is called the 'Stratosphere'... you might have heard of it because, in the polar regions, that's where the Ozone Hole likes to hang out (and sip pina coladas ;-)). In the stratosphere, the higher up you go, the warmer the temperature gets! Isn't that interesting? The demarkation between the troposphere and stratosphere is called the tropopause.
I'll keep an eye on this blob and write when I can! I'll definitely send another note out on this, once I've looked at possible tracks. My *guess* at the moment is that it'll head W-NW... hopefully to the Yucatan and not into the Gulf!
-----------------
On another somewhat related note, I've been asked a number of storm/oil questions and just haven't had time to write about them (anyone got a spare day or two lying around that I could borrow? ;-)). I had grand plans to do that in a couple of weeks, but maybe I'll just address a question here and there.
Question: "If there is a storm in the Gulf, will it rain oil on us?"
Answer: I would say no. The rain is from WATER being evaporated from the ocean. Heat energy is used to separate the water molecules (technically called the latent heat of vaporization), which allows the water to go from being a liquid to being a gas (water vapor). The oil molecules will not react the same way ... if I'm wrong and some expert out there knows definitively that they will be part of that process, please let me know and I'll pass along a correction. (And if I'm right, please let me know because then my head can get bigger ;-) ).
The water vapor is carried up into the atmosphere, where the temperature drops (because it gets colder the higher up you get) and the water molecules recombine (condense) to form clouds and then liquid water again (rain). When they recombine, the heat energy that was used to separate them is released into the atmosphere - this is a source of energy into the storm system.
However, if you live in an area where you get sea spray from storms and there is oil in the water, then you will most likely get oil droplets as well, because that is carried 'mechanically' by the wind and doesn't involve breaking up of molecules or other such sneaky things!
----------------------
Gosh... what a lot of science for a Friday! That should carry you through the weekend. ;-)
More sooner or later!
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
I (and others) have been watching this blob over the last few days as it slowly moved across the Caribbean, dumping a bit of rain on assorted islands. It is currently centered somewhere around 16N, 80W, between the tip of Honduras/Nicaragua and Jamaica.
There has been a lot of convection with this system for many days. This is to be expected. The sea surface temperatures in the Caribbean are over 30 deg C (although the eastern Caribbean has dropped by a whopping 1 deg C over the last few days because the blob has cooled things down a little). In addition to warm surface waters, it is now over some very deep warm water -the deepest there is actually. Temperatures are above 26.5 deg C in the upper 125-150m of the water column. If this had been a better developed system, this is the location it would have bloomed into a cat 5! But fortunately for us all, the poor little thing is still struggling to develop ... and in the meantime, it continues to rain and remove some of the heat from the ocean. Yay!
Since the day before yesterday, the lowest levels of the troposphere** (woo hoo...science alert - see below :-)) have begun to show some signs of improved circulation. It's still quite disorganized though. There is some wind shear. The NHC (National Hurricane Center) have been saying since yesterday that the shear will decrease by tomorrow so the system has a high chance of developing. This is possible, but I'm not 100% convinced the shear drop will be enough.
**Troposphere: this is the name of the lowest level of our atmosphere. It extends up to about 8km height in the polar regions, and 15-16 km in parts of the tropics. In the troposphere, the higher up you go, the colder the temperature gets (e.g. tops of mountains). The next layer up is called the 'Stratosphere'... you might have heard of it because, in the polar regions, that's where the Ozone Hole likes to hang out (and sip pina coladas ;-)). In the stratosphere, the higher up you go, the warmer the temperature gets! Isn't that interesting? The demarkation between the troposphere and stratosphere is called the tropopause.
I'll keep an eye on this blob and write when I can! I'll definitely send another note out on this, once I've looked at possible tracks. My *guess* at the moment is that it'll head W-NW... hopefully to the Yucatan and not into the Gulf!
-----------------
On another somewhat related note, I've been asked a number of storm/oil questions and just haven't had time to write about them (anyone got a spare day or two lying around that I could borrow? ;-)). I had grand plans to do that in a couple of weeks, but maybe I'll just address a question here and there.
Question: "If there is a storm in the Gulf, will it rain oil on us?"
Answer: I would say no. The rain is from WATER being evaporated from the ocean. Heat energy is used to separate the water molecules (technically called the latent heat of vaporization), which allows the water to go from being a liquid to being a gas (water vapor). The oil molecules will not react the same way ... if I'm wrong and some expert out there knows definitively that they will be part of that process, please let me know and I'll pass along a correction. (And if I'm right, please let me know because then my head can get bigger ;-) ).
The water vapor is carried up into the atmosphere, where the temperature drops (because it gets colder the higher up you get) and the water molecules recombine (condense) to form clouds and then liquid water again (rain). When they recombine, the heat energy that was used to separate them is released into the atmosphere - this is a source of energy into the storm system.
However, if you live in an area where you get sea spray from storms and there is oil in the water, then you will most likely get oil droplets as well, because that is carried 'mechanically' by the wind and doesn't involve breaking up of molecules or other such sneaky things!
----------------------
Gosh... what a lot of science for a Friday! That should carry you through the weekend. ;-)
More sooner or later!
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
Tuesday, June 15, 2010
Atlantic Blob: June 15 Update A
If the season has to be busy, can it please be full of blobs like this? :-) It created a small ruckus and is now just happily twirling away, minding it's own business.
It doesn't have much convection, just some low level circulation. It's centered at about 13N, 45W, heading WNW at 10-15 mph. The water underneath is still warm water (28-29 deg C), but the wind shear continues to pick up and there is still dry air around. I had an email about African Dust today - there is, indeed, a Sarahan Air Layer blowing off Africa, but it's not really in the vicinity of this little blob. To look at African Dust, click here: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/salmain.php?&prod=splitEW&time (from U. Wisconsin - CIMSS).
I'll keep an eye on it, but I suspect this will be my last entry on this blob. Hurray!! One down... er... 20 something to go? (ha ha ha... no, surely not!)
Until the next time...
(Go England! ;-) )
Toodle pip!
J.
p.s. if you have any questions, let me know!
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
It doesn't have much convection, just some low level circulation. It's centered at about 13N, 45W, heading WNW at 10-15 mph. The water underneath is still warm water (28-29 deg C), but the wind shear continues to pick up and there is still dry air around. I had an email about African Dust today - there is, indeed, a Sarahan Air Layer blowing off Africa, but it's not really in the vicinity of this little blob. To look at African Dust, click here: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/salmain.php?&prod=splitEW&time (from U. Wisconsin - CIMSS).
I'll keep an eye on it, but I suspect this will be my last entry on this blob. Hurray!! One down... er... 20 something to go? (ha ha ha... no, surely not!)
Until the next time...
(Go England! ;-) )
Toodle pip!
J.
p.s. if you have any questions, let me know!
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
Monday, June 14, 2010
Atlantic Blob: June 14 Update A
"Bit of a busy day today, I'm afraid. Distressingly little time for sloth or idleness." (Oscar Wilde) :-)
So, fortunately for me, there's not much to say about this Atlantic blob ... other than it looks a little worse for wear today than it did yesterday. Even though it's over warm waters (in the 28-29 deg C range), the circulation and convection has definitely decreased this evening. This might be because the wind shear started to pick up (a fraction) and there continues to be dry air all around. From satellite images, it looks like it is heading in a north-westward direction and the center is somewhere near 11N, 42W.
However, it is still trying to develop (pesky little blob!) and I will continue to keep an eye on it. I'll be back with an update tomorrow.
Have a nice day! (as they say in America ;-) ).
Ciao for now,
J.
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
So, fortunately for me, there's not much to say about this Atlantic blob ... other than it looks a little worse for wear today than it did yesterday. Even though it's over warm waters (in the 28-29 deg C range), the circulation and convection has definitely decreased this evening. This might be because the wind shear started to pick up (a fraction) and there continues to be dry air all around. From satellite images, it looks like it is heading in a north-westward direction and the center is somewhere near 11N, 42W.
However, it is still trying to develop (pesky little blob!) and I will continue to keep an eye on it. I'll be back with an update tomorrow.
Have a nice day! (as they say in America ;-) ).
Ciao for now,
J.
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
Sunday, June 13, 2010
Atlantic Blob: June 13 Update A
"Here we go, here we go, here we go"... a classic football (soccer) chant in honour of the World Cup (topical AND tropical - aren't you impressed? ;-)).
So, the first real blob (technical term for a blob of clouds and rainfall and thundery sort of weather ;-)) of the season is out there. Not a terribly big surprise as we are a couple of weeks into the Hurricane Season. I've heard and read a number of comparisons to the start of the 2005 season, which also had rather warm sea surface temperatures and low wind shear in May and June. The first Tropical Storm of that year, Arlene, ended on June 13... so Mother Nature is already having an easy year by comparison (if you ignore the oil spill, volcanic eruptions, assorted earthquakes, floods, tornadoes, and unusually cold winter).
This blob is a sprawling mass of clouds and convection (rainfall), covering about 1000 miles from north to south, and also from east to west. The center, I'm estimating, is somewhere around 7-8N, 36-37W, which puts it quite far south. Although the sea surface temperature is a balmy 30-plus deg C (temperatures of 26.5 deg C and higher are needed to maintain a tropical storm) and wind shear is light, there is dry air to the west and north which will help to keep it in check for a bit. However there is a decent amount of circulation with this system, hinting that it may develop further.
The good news is that I've been watching this blob all day because apparently I have nothing better to do on my weekends. I suppose I could watch the football (yawn - oops, did I say that out loud? ;-)). Anyway, both the circulation and thunderstorm activity have diminished a little since this morning. Not enough to ignore it (yet), but it gives us all an extra day or two to remember what a hurricane looks like so we can recognize one when we see it. The other thing to note about this blob is that it is quite far south (south of 10N), and therefore there's a good possibility that it will stay on a southern track... too soon to say.
I know a lot of people are concerned about the impact of a storm in the Gulf of Mexico, given that little oil spill fiasco. I'll try and write an entry on oil and storms soon(ish). But something else that also happened earlier this year was the devastating earthquake in Haiti. I believe they are still a long way from recovering from that, and unfortunately it's on an island that gets hit by a storm almost every year. My fingers are crossed (thus making it difficult for me to type of course ;-)) for any big storms to stay well away from those areas (staying out in the Atlantic is fine with me)!
I'll check in with y'all tomorrow.
Toodle pip! ;-)
J.
P.S. Thanks to everyone who have sent me notes for the last few entries... I've had a busy few weeks and am a little behind on replying, but will get around to them soon!
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
So, the first real blob (technical term for a blob of clouds and rainfall and thundery sort of weather ;-)) of the season is out there. Not a terribly big surprise as we are a couple of weeks into the Hurricane Season. I've heard and read a number of comparisons to the start of the 2005 season, which also had rather warm sea surface temperatures and low wind shear in May and June. The first Tropical Storm of that year, Arlene, ended on June 13... so Mother Nature is already having an easy year by comparison (if you ignore the oil spill, volcanic eruptions, assorted earthquakes, floods, tornadoes, and unusually cold winter).
This blob is a sprawling mass of clouds and convection (rainfall), covering about 1000 miles from north to south, and also from east to west. The center, I'm estimating, is somewhere around 7-8N, 36-37W, which puts it quite far south. Although the sea surface temperature is a balmy 30-plus deg C (temperatures of 26.5 deg C and higher are needed to maintain a tropical storm) and wind shear is light, there is dry air to the west and north which will help to keep it in check for a bit. However there is a decent amount of circulation with this system, hinting that it may develop further.
The good news is that I've been watching this blob all day because apparently I have nothing better to do on my weekends. I suppose I could watch the football (yawn - oops, did I say that out loud? ;-)). Anyway, both the circulation and thunderstorm activity have diminished a little since this morning. Not enough to ignore it (yet), but it gives us all an extra day or two to remember what a hurricane looks like so we can recognize one when we see it. The other thing to note about this blob is that it is quite far south (south of 10N), and therefore there's a good possibility that it will stay on a southern track... too soon to say.
I know a lot of people are concerned about the impact of a storm in the Gulf of Mexico, given that little oil spill fiasco. I'll try and write an entry on oil and storms soon(ish). But something else that also happened earlier this year was the devastating earthquake in Haiti. I believe they are still a long way from recovering from that, and unfortunately it's on an island that gets hit by a storm almost every year. My fingers are crossed (thus making it difficult for me to type of course ;-)) for any big storms to stay well away from those areas (staying out in the Atlantic is fine with me)!
I'll check in with y'all tomorrow.
Toodle pip! ;-)
J.
P.S. Thanks to everyone who have sent me notes for the last few entries... I've had a busy few weeks and am a little behind on replying, but will get around to them soon!
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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tuesday, June 01, 2010
June 1: Start of the 2010 Hurricane Season
Hello my friends!
Well, here we are at the Official Start of the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season... in which there will be a hundred and six tropical storms, seventy hurricanes, and fifty-four major hurricanes. ;-)
Well, here we are at the Official Start of the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season... in which there will be a hundred and six tropical storms, seventy hurricanes, and fifty-four major hurricanes. ;-)
Having spoken with some of you and with some people who don't read this blog (I, too, was surprised such people exist!! ;-) ) it seems there's a fair bit of anxiety about this season already... and we're only on DAY 1! The predictions are, indeed, for an active season:
Klotzbach/Gray (Colorado State University, prediction date April 7): 15 storms, 8 hurricanes, 4 major
NOAA (prediction date May 27): 14-23 storms, 8-14 hurricanes, 3-7 major
But 2003 was an active season with 16 storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 major (major hurricanes are cat 3 or higher), with most of the real activity staying in the Atlantic. On the other hand, 1992 was a very quiet year with only 7 storms, 4 hurricanes, 1 major... quiet for anyone not in the path of Hurricane Andrew that is. It only takes one, regardless of how busy the seasonal forecast indicates. But of course be prepared as usual. In case you don't know what you need, here's my checklist: ice cream, wine, sunscreen lotion, more ice cream, water, a good book, wine, video camera and batteries for cool footage you can sell to tv later... ;-).
If you've been reading this for years, you can ignore the next bit if you like. But if you are reading my wonderful writing for the first time ... a brief background on these updates:
1. These updates are about fun, forecasting, and education... and tropical storms (and whatever else pops into my head that more-or-less fits those three words). It is just what I think.
2. I have a British sense of humoUr... you have been warned.
3. This is my hobby - sometimes you'll get one update a day, sometimes four. If you are really lucky, you won't get any. If you wish to pay me to write, let me know and I'll send out updates as frequently as you like.
4. I have a British sense of humoUr... I hope you like Monty Python, Eddie Izzard, Douglas Adams etc
5. If you have any questions (preferably about tropical storms), please do not hesitate to ask. I will be happy to make up the answers for you. ;-) I can cut and paste from previous entries as well as the next person, so if I say something or use some "scientific jargon" (ooh ahh), please please ask me about it.
6. I have a British sense of humoUr... I often write tongue-in-cheek, which sometimes hurts my cheek but what can you do? Gentle sarcasm, irony, and puns are all acceptable forms of communication. Unfortunately they don't always translate in writing so please don't be offended - like Planet Earth, I'm "Mostly Harmless" (Douglas Adams). Have a piece of chocolate or a drink instead.
7. I'm sure every cloud in the Atlantic is exciting to some, but I'll just be writing about those that I think have a chance of developing.
8. If you are reading this on the web blog and would like to sign up to get email updates instead go here...
http://seas.marine.usf.edu/mailman/listinfo/jyo_hurricane.
9. If you are reading this via email, are sick of me cluttering up your in-boxes, and would prefer to get it via the web go here... http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com (and send me an email telling me to
remove you).
10. I am not always right. But then neither is anyone else. Forecasting is complicated. Sometimes the crystal ball gets smudges and you are all out of Windex to clean it and the store is closed. So PLEASE pay attention to the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service and your Emergency Managers - especially when a storm is looming because they have the most up-to-date information!!
11. I have a British sense of humoUr and spell things in a British way (sometimes) ... so I moved to Britain last year and no longer live in sunny Florida. I'll do my best to write entries when there's a storm out there, but occasionally that "big ball of wibbly-wobbly timey-wimey stuff" (Dr. Who) gets in the way.
The first three storm names will be Alex, Bonnie, and Colin. I'll be back in touch when Alex shows up.
That's it for now folks. :-)
J.
J.
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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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