June 1: Start of the 2010 Hurricane Season

Hello my friends!

Well, here we are at the Official Start of the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season... in which there will be a hundred and six tropical storms, seventy hurricanes, and fifty-four major hurricanes. ;-)

Having spoken with some of you and with some people who don't read this blog (I, too, was surprised such people exist!! ;-) ) it seems there's a fair bit of anxiety about this season already... and we're only on DAY 1! The predictions are, indeed, for an active season:

Klotzbach/Gray (Colorado State University, prediction date April 7): 15 storms, 8 hurricanes, 4 major

NOAA (prediction date May 27): 14-23 storms, 8-14 hurricanes, 3-7 major

But 2003 was an active season with 16 storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 major (major hurricanes are cat 3 or higher), with most of the real activity staying in the Atlantic. On the other hand, 1992 was a very quiet year with only 7 storms, 4 hurricanes, 1 major... quiet for anyone not in the path of Hurricane Andrew that is. It only takes one, regardless of how busy the seasonal forecast indicates. But of course be prepared as usual. In case you don't know what you need, here's my checklist: ice cream, wine, sunscreen lotion, more ice cream, water, a good book, wine, video camera and batteries for cool footage you can sell to tv later... ;-).

If you've been reading this for years, you can ignore the next bit if you like. But if you are reading my wonderful writing for the first time ... a brief background on these updates:

1. These updates are about fun, forecasting, and education... and tropical storms (and whatever else pops into my head that more-or-less fits those three words). It is just what I think.

2. I have a British sense of humoUr... you have been warned.

3. This is my hobby - sometimes you'll get one update a day, sometimes four. If you are really lucky, you won't get any. If you wish to pay me to write, let me know and I'll send out updates as frequently as you like.

4. I have a British sense of humoUr... I hope you like Monty Python, Eddie Izzard, Douglas Adams etc

5. If you have any questions (preferably about tropical storms), please do not hesitate to ask. I will be happy to make up the answers for you. ;-) I can cut and paste from previous entries as well as the next person, so if I say something or use some "scientific jargon" (ooh ahh), please please ask me about it.

6. I have a British sense of humoUr... I often write tongue-in-cheek, which sometimes hurts my cheek but what can you do? Gentle sarcasm, irony, and puns are all acceptable forms of communication. Unfortunately they don't always translate in writing so please don't be offended - like Planet Earth, I'm "Mostly Harmless" (Douglas Adams). Have a piece of chocolate or a drink instead.

7. I'm sure every cloud in the Atlantic is exciting to some, but I'll just be writing about those that I think have a chance of developing.

8. If you are reading this on the web blog and would like to sign up to get email updates instead go here...
http://seas.marine.usf.edu/mailman/listinfo/jyo_hurricane.

9. If you are reading this via email, are sick of me cluttering up your in-boxes, and would prefer to get it via the web go here... http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com (and send me an email telling me to
remove you).

10. I am not always right. But then neither is anyone else. Forecasting is complicated. Sometimes the crystal ball gets smudges and you are all out of Windex to clean it and the store is closed. So PLEASE pay attention to the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service and your Emergency Managers - especially when a storm is looming because they have the most up-to-date information!!

11. I have a British sense of humoUr and spell things in a British way (sometimes) ... so I moved to Britain last year and no longer live in sunny Florida. I'll do my best to write entries when there's a storm out there, but occasionally that "big ball of wibbly-wobbly timey-wimey stuff" (Dr. Who) gets in the way.

The first three storm names will be Alex, Bonnie, and Colin. I'll be back in touch when Alex shows up.

That's it for now folks. :-)
J.

-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------