Tropical Storm Alex: June 29, Update A

Just a quick note... Tropical Storm Alex is currently centered somewhere around 21.7N, 91.9W with winds near 70mph, making him a strong Tropical Storm. Central pressure is 984mb, moving NNW at 8mph. He'll become a hurricane soon (cat 1: 74-95mph). He slowed down yesterday, which always makes things (track and intensity forecasting) tricky - I'll go into why at a later date. It still looks like a Mexico landfall, with a small chance of southern Texas. I was wrong about the southern track, alas, but correct about the slower increase in intensity. The circulation is pretty good throughout the troposphere, which means that he will intensify further. Bother.

His circulation is now strong again throughout the troposphere (it weakened a little yesterday), and there is low wind shear. Because he took a more northerly track, he is over warm and slightly deeper warm water. All conditions point to intensification.

I don't have time to look at all the data or write more today. Tomorrow I'll have oodles of time though, so be prepared for a long and boring entry! ;-)

Toodle pip,
J.

p.s. congratulations to C.H. (who helps me maintain the web blog) and his wife on the birth of his daughter yesterday! :-)

Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/

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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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