Monday, October 03, 2011

Ex-Hurricane Ophelia and Tropical Storm Philippe: October 3, Update A

Hurray, another one down! Yes, Ophelia is no more. She took so long that I’ve forgotten the great final Shakespeare quote I had lined up for her. One woe doth tread upon another’s heel. Bother. ;-)

She went over the tip of Newfoundland earlier today. She looked like she was mostly cloudy at that point, maybe a splash of rain… so I’m not sure the Newfoundlanders would have noticed anything unusual. ;-) The NHC’s last entry on Ophelia at 11am AST had her  at 48.1N, 52W moving ENE at 37mph. Winds were 60mph and her central pressure was estimated to be 996mb, so she was still at Tropical Storm level, but she wasn’t a Tropical Storm anymore so I agree with their decision to call her ‘post-tropical’. This is my last entry on Ophelia as well.

Tropical Storm Philippe is still clinging on. Officially he is at around 24.6N, 56.6W, heading WSW at 12mph. Winds are apparently 65mph, with a central pressure estimated to be 997mb. Hmm. Well, as with many other storms, I agree with the NHC on his name at least. ;-) He’s a bit of a messy system, so it’s not easy to figure out where the center is. It kinda looks like it is around 24N, 57W to me, which is a bit south of his current center and also south of the center of cone track. That pesky niggling voice in my head is telling me that if the center is not where they think it should be, that track might not be quite right. SO… by this time tomorrow I expect him to be somewhere closer to 25N, 61W heading WNW if he is on the forecast track.

He is pretty weak though. I don’t think his winds are 65mph. Here is the IR satellite image:

Not much convection really. I expect they will reduce his wind speed soon. Although his circulation is good, he is still in a region of decent wind shear at the moment. However, it does look like that might weaken for a short time, in which case he’ll be looking a bit better by tomorrow.

That’s all I got for today. I’m traveling tomorrow (surprise!) to the lovely Keys, but will try and check in later in the day. Speaking of traveling, watch this super cool video (thanks to Sharon in Florida for sharing this):


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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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