Monday, October 17, 2011

Gulf of Mexico Blobette and Atlantic Blob: October 17, Update A

Well things are looking groovy out there. The Atlantic blob from yesterday has vanished off the NHC map. The vorticity (circulation) in the lower half of the troposphere has decreased, there is not much convection, and wind shear is strong. I’m not going to write about this one anymore unless it pops back up.

As for the Gulf of Mexico blobette, the Hurricane Hunter plane found no center of circulation so I didn’t have to get ‘quite cross’ at anyone. Good job people! The NHC have downgraded the chance for a tropical storm to 30%. Other than that, there isn’t much change from yesterday. The vorticity for this is still spread out over a large area. There is still some strong convection because it is still over very warm waters. The convection did start to decrease during the day today as the storm drifted across a patch of less warm (still 29-30 deg C though) water, but it has perked back up this evening because it is now over the leg of the Loop Current that flows out of the Gulf – between Cuba and the Florida Keys. I probably won’t say any more on this one either, unless it looks like it’s improving in any way. I expect raindrops on roses and whiskers on kittens in the southern half of Florida.

Until the next time… or the end of the season (again).

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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