Although the vorticity (circulation) in the lower troposphere is stronger today, it still remains spread out over a large area that stretches from the Bahamas north to central-Florida and then south again into the Gulf. The NHC say the center of this broad area of low pressure is not well defined, but is about 50 miles SE of Cape Canaveral. I agree that there is a region that looks like a center of circulation just off the east coast of Florida, but it also looks like there’s a smaller (connected) area of circulation off southwest Florida as well… which is why I think this is (at the moment) a very disorganized big blobette. You can see these two areas in the IR image – they correspond to the convection in these two areas:
A chunk of this blobette is over the Florida Current (Gulf Stream) so it will produce a lot of rainfall because that ocean current is toasty warm (around 30 deg C) and water warmer than 26 deg is in the upper 100m. However I’m not sure if this will develop into anything much because wind shear is very strong (40-50 knots!) and this is so close to land. This blobette is moving northwestwardish at 10mph, so most of the northern half of Florida and areas to the north (GA, AL) and can expect some wellie-boots and brolly weather over the next couple of days.
I shall dedicate this ‘tropical’ weather to my family and friends over in the UK.
More tomorrow,
J.
Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm
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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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