Monday, November 07, 2011

Atlantic Blob: November 7, Update A

In true Monty Python manner, the Atlantic Hurricane Season says, “I’m not dead yet!” J

There’s a swirly blob in the Atlantic centered at 69.7W, 27N, just southwest of Bermuda. The NHC have marked this as having a 70% chance of becoming a tropical depression. This looks like a tropical depression already to me. You can very nicely see the closed circulation if you look at the satellite images. Here's the latest IR image:

If you want to watch the video to see the swirliness, scroll down on this page: until you see the heading ‘Atlantic Floater 1’. Click on Visible – Flash or IR – Flash to see the moving pictures (ooh, pretty). Looks like some nice closed circulation, doesn’t it? The vorticity (circulation) is actually very strong in the lower half of the troposphere and has the signature look of a tropical system.  There is also considerable vorticity in the upper levels of the troposphere, but that is associated with a low pressure front.

There are two factors that are inhibiting this from developing. The IR satellite image shows very little convection which is because of the dry air around it, and the you can see the clouds streaming off to the north and east, which indicates wind shear.

It seems unlikely to me that this will develop very much more because of these two things, but it’s worth keeping an eye on just because the circulation is strong.

Ho hum. So much for an early nap! I’ll be back if this thinks of doing anything dodgy. The next name is Sean, in case we need to know such things.


p.s. <Cool Astronomy!> As you know (or will know once you’ve read this), there’s a Large Asteroid in the ‘hood. It is the size of an aircraft carrier, or around 400m wide for those of us who haven’t got aircraft carrier sizes memorized. It will pass just slightly closer to Earth than the moon’s orbit. “Don’t Panic!” (HHGTTG). It is called ‘YU55’ (no relative of U2). The last time this sort of thing happened was in 1976, but the astronomers of the day forgot to set their alarms and didn’t know this had happened until it was too late. Having been caught snoozing once, they have already calculated the next time this will happen (other than tomorrow of course) will be in the year 2028. They have set their alarms for the year 2027 and 45 seconds… <end of Cool Astronomy!>

Blogs archived at
Twitter @JyovianStorm

DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

No comments: