Tuesday, November 08, 2011

Tropical Storm Sean: November 8, Update A

How does the time go by so quickly, huh? Anyway, very little of it is left today for me to write this so it’ll be quick and very practical and not very funny at all.

The NHC changed Sean to a Subtropical Storm in the early hours of this morning. That would be in keeping with the vorticity (circulation) signals I was seeing, where he looked like a Tropical Storm in the lower half of the troposphere, but had a low pressure front signal in the upper troposphere. I think they should have left him as a Subtropical Storm because he really only looks like a Tropical Storm in the lowest levels of the troposphere - the vorticity is looking more like a low pressure front now in the middle levels of the troposphere as well as the upper levels.

He is currently at around 27.5N, 70.5W. This is a bit south and west of the official location of 27.9N, 70.1W. He appears to be heading westwardish, officially at 3mph. Winds are 50mph, with a central pressure estimated to be 999mb, making him a low-to-mid level storm (TS range: 39-73mph).

As I expected, convection really has not picked up – the IR satellite image from this evening is here:

Can you spot the difference from yesterday’s IR image? Oh yes, there’s that one small cloud…  ;-) There is just too much dry air around him for the convection to pick up and I still don’t see this changing any time soon.

There are storm warnings for Bermuda. It should be a lovely breezy night on Thursday. I’m not sure you should even bother dusting off the umbrellas.

I had all these grand plans to write about people I know called Sean, asteroids, high storm surge where the water temps are 1 deg C (brrr), and other relevant stuff, but must sleep now. Tomorrow is Carl Sagan Day. Maybe that will inspire me to write something scientific and clever … ;-) (one can hope at least).


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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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