Saturday, June 23, 2012

Gulf of Mexico Blobette: June 23, Update A

What a lovely Saturday. No sun, just clouds. Looks just like a wonderful British summer day. ;-)

Our Gulf blobette should actually, at the very least, be a Tropical Depression because some of the buoy winds in the eastern Gulf show winds of 22-31mph sustained winds (TD: 17mph-38mph winds), and I’m sure they are stronger closer to the center.  It may already be Tropical Storm Debby.  A plane is scheduled to go into the system this afternoon to ‘investigate’, so I expect the NHC to change this from a 90% chance of developing in the next 48 hours (really, 90%? Just call a spade a spade already), to a TD or TS in their 5pm advisory.

Circulation has strengthened now in the lower half of the troposphere and it has a very clear center of circulation, which I estimate to be around 87.5-88W, 26N. There is also a lot of convection that spans the entire eastern length of the Gulf, from the Yucatan to the Florida Panhandle. However, the convection is mostly to the east of the center because there is still some wind shear which is keeping it in check.

It doesn’t seemed to have moved much in the last few hours which makes figuring out a track still a bit tricky. Anyway, I’ll be back later with an update on what should be TS Debby!

Anyone want a cup of tea? J

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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