Tuesday, June 19, 2012

Tropical Storm Chris: June 19, Update A

Sigh. In ye olde golden days of yore, they wouldn’t have named this one. I can see why they called this a Tropical Storm, but I am not convinced it actually is one, so I personally wouldn’t give it a name. I’ve been watching this system for the past few days, and although it has some circulation (not particularly tropical in nature), there is very little rain in this system. The NHC named it Chris in their 5pm advisory today. He ‘formed’ at 39.3N, 57.7W, and is moving East at 8mph. Estimated minimum pressure is 1005mb, with estimated winds at 45mph (TS range: 39-73mph).

Here are my top ten reasons why this one doesn’t really qualify:

1. The last time I looked, the tropics were between 30N and 30S. The NHS officially says that: “THE NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES HAS ACQUIRED TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.” At almost 40 deg N? In the middle of the Atlantic?

2. The water temperature is 22-23 deg C… that is 71-74 deg F. Does that sound like balmy, warm tropical water temperatures to you? (no need to answer if you are from Canada) Tropical Storms need 26 deg C or warmer to develop. They are ‘Tropical’. Look it up in the dictionary. 71-74 deg C is the sort of water I’d get into to cool off after sitting in a boiling jaccuzzi for half an hour as a form of hot water/cold water/but-its-good-for-you-so-quit-complaining sort of thing.

3. There is no warm water underneath. It just gets colder. Even the fish probably wear wet suits.

4. If this was a Tropical Storm, the vorticity (circulation) signal I see in this system would be the same as if it were a Cat 3 or 4. This storm is not that strong... there are other things going on afoot (and aloft) – see comment 5 below.

5. The NHC say this will be absorbed by a larger extratropical low pressure area in 3-4 days… see comment 4 above. It already is part of that system.

6. Relative to the storm, the vertical wind shear is strong in this area.

7. We do have rotating storms that develop in the extratropics. We normally just call them storms or low pressure systems. They can have strong winds. Some of them even have buckets of rain. Amongst other places, they like to visit Scotland quite frequently. Along with the other tens of people who like to visit Scotland quite frequently.

8. See point 9.

9. See point 8.

10. Ok, yeah, I ran out of things to rant about.

Definitely not convinced about TS Chris. Harrumph.

Speaking of Chris, my friend Chris K. tweeted from a conference today about viruses in the ocean (how do you like that for a segueway? ;-))… apparently there are “10 million viruses per drop of seawater. So when swim you swallow more viruses than people in the US”. (the good kind of viruses of course). And on that delicious note, time for something to drink.

That’s it for now,


Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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