Friday, August 10, 2012

Tropical Depression 7 and Atlantic Blobette: August 10, Update A

An easier day in the Atlantic today. Let’s see. Tropical Storm Ernesto was downgraded to a Tropical Depression overnight and the NHC issued their last advisory on him this morning. I think this was a bit premature, but only by a few hours. The straggly bits of this system doesn’t have much circulation, although there is still quite a bit of convective weather. Most of it is offshore at this point, so this is my last update on this system.

Tropical Depression 7
Officially this blob is at 13.8N, 52.8W, moving quickly W at 24mph. Winds are 35mph, central pressure 1009mb. They have slowly shifted the forecast track slightly southward, which is reasonable in my book. This blob still isn’t very well organized (he should make lists!) so I still can’t quite see his center. I’ll continue with the official one for now, although just like yesterday, it does appear to be a little south of this location. The biggest change from yesterday is that he is moving forward a little more quickly at 24mph. This means he will cross the Lesser Antilles chain tomorrow evening. He hasn’t really changed much in intensity so I agree with his TD designation. There isn’t really any circulation in the middle troposphere – it’s all in the lower parts of the atmosphere. His convection has improved slightly since yesterday but he is still being impacted by the dry Saharan Air Layer and increased wind shear, which you can see because the cloud pattern is elongated from southwest to northeast in this satellite image:

It looks like Trinidad and Tobago should have their umbrellas rushed to the front door though, because they have cloud cover already.

Atlantic Blobette
The Atlantic Blobette is now over the Cape Verde islands, and looks like she is centered around 17N, 25W. Although the circulation is good in the lower troposphere, the convection is pretty weak because she is well and truly stuck in some dry air. The NHC have downgraded her chances to 20%.

That’s about it really. J Before I leave though, here is something worth a peek at: It is an animated video of a flight through the Universe! It really gives a different perspective on the Universe, especially if you think about the size of a galaxy as you watch this!

It’s cheese-and-wine-o-clock! Oh joy. J

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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