Saturday, August 04, 2012

Tropical Storm Ernesto and Tropical Storm Florence: August 4, Update A

Time for a quick update.

TS Ernesto

Ernesto is heading WNW at a brisk 22mph. Officially he is currently centered at 15.4N, 72W and the winds are officially 60mph (based on data brought back from a hurricane hunter plane), central pressure is 1007mb. The current forecast from the NHC has him becoming a hurricane late on Monday evening, with landfall in the Yucatan on Wednesday morning. I agree with the general landfall region, but I am not sure I agree with some of the other parts. For a start, I think his center is south of the official location. From the satellite imagery I think it looks like it is at 14.9N, 71.6W. Also, I think his winds were 60-70mph earlier in the day, but I think he has changed his clothes and is actually already a weak cat 1 hurricane (cat 1 range: 74-95mph) because there is some circulation now in the upper levels of the troposphere which is a sign of a weak cat 1. Most indicators are that he will intensify. Wind shear is low and sea surface temperatures are warmer than 28 deg C with the upper 100-125m of the ocean warmer than 26 deg C. As he gets closer to central America, waters warmer than 26 deg C can be found even deeper – down to depths of 150-175m. This will really allow him to intensify on Monday and Tuesday. There is a bit of dry air ahead of him and he is still interacting with the South America landmass, so the intensification will be gradual.    

TS Florence

Florence is currently officially at 16.1N, 33W, moving WNW at 15mph. Her winds have been increased to 60mph, which makes her a mid-strength Tropical Storm (range: 39-73mph).  Her central pressure is estimated to be 1000mb. The forecast track keeps her in the Atlantic. I agree with the intensity estimate. It looks like her center is a little north of the official location. I’d put her at 16.5N, 33W, moving in a northwest direction at the moment. I do not have good data that far out in the Atlantic at the moment, so I cannot really say much about her track today and will go with the official forecast for now.

Time for a nice nap. More tomorrow!


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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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