Friday, July 26, 2013

Tropical Storm Dorian: July 26, Update A

To quote Oscar Wilde: “Rather a busy day today, Phipps… distressingly little time for sloth or idleness”, so a quick update on Tropical Storm Dorian Gray. But first, a correction on yesterday’s blog, which was obviously written under the influence of too much champagne. It’s Charles Darwin who will be replaced by Jane Austen on the ten pound note, not Charles Dickens. Oopsie. J Many thanks to those who pointed it out … it has been corrected!

Tropical Storm Dorian is at 17.8N, 45.8W, moving W at a pretty rapid 22mph. His convection has really diminished during the day today, so he has been downgraded to a weak system with winds of 45mph, central pressure of 1010mb. The forecast has him as a Tropical Depression by Sunday. Sea surface temperatures are 27-28 deg C, which is definitely warm enough to sustain a storm. Wind shear is relatively weak still, so it looks like the dry air won out over the wind shear and water temperature. Here is our little Dorian in a satellite image of water vapour:

Looks like in addition to the dry air, wind shear will pick up in the next day, so I think downgrading him is a reasonable assessment.

Meanwhile, the remains of the Atlantic Blobette from a couple of days ago is lurking around Bermuda now.  Charles M. sent these two beautiful photos taken around 8.30pm last night from Bermuda:

Lovely lovely clouds! J

That’s all for today folks. Another quick update tomorrow.


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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

1 comment:

Shandy said...

Wow, those photos are gorgeous!