Tropical Storm Karen: October 5, Update A

Not too much time to dilly dally today because it's Wineday! :-)

Tropical Storm Karen  has made the slight turn to the north, although she continues to push the western edge of the forecast cone and the NHC have shifted her track to the west. They currently forecast landfall late tonight/early tomorrow. If I were to guess, I'd say the Lacassine National Wildlife Refuge part of Louisiana (or possible as far east as Morgan City) is where she'll head - although this is a little west of the NHC forecast cone. Although they are expecting a turn to the NE today, I think there's a good possibility that it will occur once she's on land. She is currently at 27.9N, 91.7W, heading N at 7mph:

 She is barely a TS with winds of 40mph (central pressure: 1008mb), (TS range: 39-73mph). Even this seems too high! She is passing a number of oil and gas platforms in the western/central Gulf, and luckily for us, they have wind sensors on them! :-) (see, the wonders of an ocean observing system...).  Her center is passing very close to a Shell platform (27.8N, 92W), which is reporting winds of 14mph! A bit removed from the center, I see an Apache Corp platform which is reporting winds of 24 mph. Nothing is really showing anywhere near 40mph. Also, there is no circulation in the middle troposphere now, and the circulation in the lowest levels is diminishing too. 

There is very little convection left:

As she moves closer, there may be a toot of rain along the northern Gulf coast - LA to FL panhandle, but even that might not be as much as our normal summer thunderstorms.

Just keep an eye on the water levels. I see from Tides Online that it is almost 2ft above normal along parts of the LA coast.

And for the Karens out there...I thought of a Halloween costume idea: a beheaded Tropical Storm. :-) Send me photos if you do this! (ala Sharknado...)

And I think that's it for now.  I don't know about you but for me winedays are usually quite busy, what with having to drink wine, eat some cheese, have some more wine etc. I may not have time for another update later so stay safe out there and I'll be back tomorrow (once I've recovered ;-)).

Toodles!
J.

p.s. Happy Birthday to my hubby! :-)

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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