Hurricane Irma, Tropical Storms Jose and Katia: September 6, Update A

Quick update with my morning cuppa tea…

Hurricane Irma

She is currently at 18.2N, 64.0W and is continuing to head WNW at 16mph (faster is better – I’m glad she hasn’t slowed down):

She has hit the islands of Barbuda, St. Barthelemy, and St. Martin and is approaching the Virgin Islands – 65 miles from St. Thomas, with hurricane force winds (74 mph) about 15 miles away from there right now. They are certainly in Tropical Storm winds (>39mph) which extend 185 miles from the center.

Her wind speed is still 185mph, central pressure is 918mb. As expected, the islands are too small to do much to a storm of this size. She still spans over 5 degrees in latitude, and each degree is 69 miles, so she is over 345 miles in girth. You can see her on the San Juan radar now:

The 4-5 day projected track has shifted to the east, so it appears that she will go up the east coast of Florida – but again, I have to say, the cone still covers almost all of Florida at 4-5 days out:

So my note from the last post still stands. It is really difficult to say where she will turn to the north – I will try and get a pictorial representation for you for this evening if I can. At the moment, definitely staying on the WNW, possibly W, track for the next day is about right.

Tropical Storm Jose

He’s slowly growing… currently ar 13.1N, 44.5W, heading WNW at 17mph. Winds are now 70mph, central pressure 998mb. I’m holding off on this one as I have to get ready for work and it’s just bugging the fishies right now (unless you are rowing across the Atlantic or something!).

Tropical Storm Katia

This is the Gulf of Mexico blobette I mentioned a couple of days ago. They named her this morning, just, you know, because. She is not a TS in my opinion – there is not any good circulation (vorticity) in the middle of the troposphere, only at the lower level – I would have kept her as a Tropical Depression. They are sending a plane in to check her out later today and we will know more proper information then. She is currently at 21.7N, 95.9W, heading ESE at 5mph. Winds are 45mph, central pressure is 1004mb. She’s going to be heading into Mexico:

They have her developing into a hurricane – mostly because she has almost stalled and will sit over warm water for a few days. More on her later too.

Hi ho, hi ho, it’s off to work I go…

J.

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.